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2023 Red Sox Win Projection
mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Mar 30, 2023 7:35:31 GMT -5
91. I believe!
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Mar 30, 2023 8:53:11 GMT -5
Can I go 82 +/- 10?
Who can say? This is one of the must uncertain teams I can remember. Guys like Yoshida and Casas could be studs or could bomb… either scenario is reasonable. The pitching could be strong, it could suck… both plausible. I could see them finishing anywhere from last to first (even though other teams are better on paper, they all have weaknesses that could result in disappointing years, too).
Can’t say it won’t be interesting!!
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 30, 2023 10:27:27 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Mar 30, 2023 11:23:15 GMT -5
Between this and the power rankings thing, where they/re rated 16th despite having the 6th highest team quality score, I'm beginning to suspect a fangraphs anti-Red Sox conspiracy.
Okay, I don't really think there's a conspiracy, but I can't remember a time when the Red Sox have been as uncool as they are now. Not a single analyst or pundit is picking them to be good, despite some real reasons for optimism, and the general tone of the commentary suggests they're some moribund frachise like the Pirates or something.
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Post by seamus on Mar 30, 2023 12:15:40 GMT -5
Between this and the power rankings thing, where they/re rated 16th despite having the 6th highest team quality score, I'm beginning to suspect a fangraphs anti-Red Sox conspiracy.
Okay, I don't really think there's a conspiracy, but I can't remember a time when the Red Sox have been as uncool as they are now. Not a single analyst or pundit is picking them to be good, despite some real reasons for optimism, and the general tone of the commentary suggests they're some moribund frachise like the Pirates or something.
I've seen the Mookie Betts trade mentioned so often that you'd think it happened this past winter rather than over 3 years ago. The Bogaerts deal with San Diego is mentioned more often than the Devers extension. No idea why there's this fixation on what the Red Sox aren't rather than what they are, which is a team without any obvious black holes in the lineup even with some injuries, an MVP-level hitter, two likely ROY candidates, a mix of veterans and young exciting guys in the rotation, and an experienced bullpen. That's a good team that would be in solid shape to win the AL Central, but because they're in a division with probably the two best teams in the AL plus two more good squads, they get treated like the Royals or Pirates.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Mar 30, 2023 12:18:03 GMT -5
Between this and the power rankings thing, where they/re rated 16th despite having the 6th highest team quality score, I'm beginning to suspect a fangraphs anti-Red Sox conspiracy. Okay, I don't really think there's a conspiracy, but I can't remember a time when the Red Sox have been as uncool as they are now. Not a single analyst or pundit is picking them to be good, despite some real reasons for optimism, and the general tone of the commentary suggests they're some moribund frachise like the Pirates or something.
Fangraphs also released their "positional power rankings" yesterday, which has the Red Sox 15th in overall team projected WAR (Yankees #1, Blue Jays #4, Rays #8, O's #21). Six AL teams are behind the Red Sox (Mariners, White Sox, O's, Royals, Tigers, and A's). Fangraphs "team quality" metric in the tiered power rankings are different. According to them, they take "their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric". This is why the team quality metric has the Red Sox tied with the Rays, even though by projected team WAR the Red Sox are seven teams behind the Rays. It's clear the projected WAR totals more closely resemble the predictions than the team quality scores. Fangraphs projected WAR totals see the Red Sox as the definition of a middle of the road MLB team, but it's clear the stacked division is pushing down their playoff odds. If they were in the AL Central they'd be higher on the tiered power rankings, no doubt. blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-positional-power-rankings-summary/blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-opening-day-2023/
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 30, 2023 12:25:57 GMT -5
Between this and the power rankings thing, where they/re rated 16th despite having the 6th highest team quality score, I'm beginning to suspect a fangraphs anti-Red Sox conspiracy.
Okay, I don't really think there's a conspiracy, but I can't remember a time when the Red Sox have been as uncool as they are now. Not a single analyst or pundit is picking them to be good, despite some real reasons for optimism, and the general tone of the commentary suggests they're some moribund frachise like the Pirates or something.
The absolutely universal opinion of the media that the Red Sox are going to fall flat this year has me feeling more optimistic. If they were a stock this is the time to buy.
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Post by theburn on Mar 30, 2023 12:56:22 GMT -5
81
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Post by keninten on Mar 30, 2023 17:33:52 GMT -5
Between this and the power rankings thing, where they/re rated 16th despite having the 6th highest team quality score, I'm beginning to suspect a fangraphs anti-Red Sox conspiracy.
Okay, I don't really think there's a conspiracy, but I can't remember a time when the Red Sox have been as uncool as they are now. Not a single analyst or pundit is picking them to be good, despite some real reasons for optimism, and the general tone of the commentary suggests they're some moribund frachise like the Pirates or something.
I've seen the Mookie Betts trade mentioned so often that you'd think it happened this past winter rather than over 3 years ago. The Bogaerts deal with San Diego is mentioned more often than the Devers extension. No idea why there's this fixation on what the Red Sox aren't rather than what they are, which is a team without any obvious black holes in the lineup even with some injuries, an MVP-level hitter, two likely ROY candidates, a mix of veterans and young exciting guys in the rotation, and an experienced bullpen. That's a good team that would be in solid shape to win the AL Central, but because they're in a division with probably the two best teams in the AL plus two more good squads, they get treated like the Royals or Pirates. Toronto and who? You can`t mean the yankees? 3/5 of their SP are on the IL. I don`t think their lineup is any better than the Sox.
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Post by stevedillard on Mar 30, 2023 18:11:08 GMT -5
Late to the party. 74 wins 87 losses. One non makeup
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 30, 2023 21:05:39 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Mar 30, 2023 21:48:18 GMT -5
I know this is a statistical model and ZiPS is as good as it gets, but it still seems wild to me that, after a season in which they had everything go wrong, and with a clearly improved bullpen, a better rotation if they don't repeat their terrible injury luck, and an offense that ought to at least hold serve, plus an easier schedule, that anyone - or any system - would project the Red Sox to win fewer games than last year.
I've never felt so out of synch with the projections, both the subjective and math-y ones. And it's not like I'm some congenital optimist; I basically agreed with them in 2021 and was somewhat more pessimistic than them last year.
Like, this team should finish 3 games worse than Baltimore? Who just threw out Kyle Gibson as their opening day starter?
To be fair, Szymborski does say this:
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Post by foreverred9 on Mar 30, 2023 22:02:20 GMT -5
There's no better way to sum up this team and all the conversation this offseason than that last comment:
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Post by cheers on May 27, 2023 15:45:08 GMT -5
Getting near the 1/3 mark. Interested in seeing updates from the board? I (being inherently negative, but very capable of enjoying pleasant surprises) had 72-90, but was able to see how it could be 90-72.
I still see 90 win upside, but think the rotation is going to implode with injuries.
5/27 prediction: 78-84.
All in all, have enjoyed the season so far. Lots of bright spots.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 27, 2023 21:09:59 GMT -5
92+
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Post by notstarboard on May 27, 2023 23:01:05 GMT -5
Getting near the 1/3 mark. Interested in seeing updates from the board? I (being inherently negative, but very capable of enjoying pleasant surprises) had 72-90, but was able to see how it could be 90-72. I still see 90 win upside, but think the rotation is going to implode with injuries. 5/27 prediction: 78-84. All in all, have enjoyed the season so far. Lots of bright spots. I am impressed at your commitment to negativity lol. Currently the lineup, bullpen, and rotation are all better than they were last year and we have multiple impact players due back from the IL soon. Last year was just about a worst case scenario for injury luck and the roster was worse to begin with than this year's team. They still went 78-84. And we have a head start this year at 28-24 despite injuries and the slow start from the rotation. We'd need to go 50-60 the rest of the way, and the schedule gets easier from here. That would be a catastrophic failure. We're talking Sale teaching Devers and Yoshida how to ride a bike levels of catastrophic failure. If injuries knock out a couple starters, I have no doubt that Crawford can start, and Pivetta can be a 5 in a pinch (or perhaps piggy-backed with Winckowski). The rotation would still probably be alright. I was thinking mid-80s wins as a 50th percentile outcome for this team over the winter. We're currently on an 87 win pace and with average injury luck we should be even better to close out the year. I'm guessing somewhere in the low 90s.
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 27, 2023 23:43:59 GMT -5
I figured they were a .500 team and as the season has progressed o see more that I like them I dislike about the team.
They still have a wide range of outcomes but now I think the center is higher.
If the Sale, Paxton, Whitlock, and Bello stay healthy, and Devers, too, they could win 90 and snag one of the wild cards.
But if Sale and/or another starters goes down, and given their health track record, that's possible, they could finish last with a record just under .500.
For now I'll say they're an 85 win team.
If given good health and if Bloom can add a quality starter and perhaps another arm for the pen, they could make noise on the post season.
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Post by cheers on May 28, 2023 14:55:21 GMT -5
Getting near the 1/3 mark. Interested in seeing updates from the board? I (being inherently negative, but very capable of enjoying pleasant surprises) had 72-90, but was able to see how it could be 90-72. I am impressed at your commitment to negativity lol. Low expectations are the key to contentment.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 12, 2023 7:28:58 GMT -5
...
Total: +10, so 88-74, with a slightly above average offense and bullpen, and otherwise average production across the board, bolstered especially by solid depth that should prevent some of the really egregious sub-replacement performances that have hamstrung them the last few seasons.
It's a little painful to note that if not for the really egregious sub-replacement performances from Kiké and Kluber - if they were merely terrible (replacement-level) rather than world-shakingly atrocious (-2 WAR combined) - this team might be 50-41, and on pace for 89 wins.
I think most people saw those two as fairly high-floor workhorses going into the season too. Well... baseball!
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 12, 2023 11:05:24 GMT -5
...
Total: +10, so 88-74, with a slightly above average offense and bullpen, and otherwise average production across the board, bolstered especially by solid depth that should prevent some of the really egregious sub-replacement performances that have hamstrung them the last few seasons.
It's a little painful to note that if not for the really egregious sub-replacement performances from Kiké and Kluber - if they were merely terrible (replacement-level) rather than world-shakingly atrocious (-2 WAR combined) - this team might be 50-41, and on pace for 89 wins.
I think most people saw those two as fairly high-floor workhorses going into the season too. Well... baseball!
I'm also surprised by Casas being basically replacement level at the break but that could be partly because my expectations for him were high (and remain high going forward!) He's got a 99 wRC+ and that just doesn't work at 1B, which is where the big boys play. A lot of that was built on a March/April in which BABIP hated him and his K rate was higher than it's been since. TC's defense has also been a big disappointment. But he's still a big piece of the future, IMO. On the other hand, Bello and Duran! Wong has also developed nicely. And I want to see more of Yu Chang at SS. We may not need to sign a serviceable veteran to be the 2024 bridge to MM. We may already have him.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2023 12:09:22 GMT -5
The Red Sox are tied with the Giants and Phillies with fewest blown saves this season so far with 7. (Pre-season playoff aspirants Cardinals and White Sox have the most with 21 and 20 respectively; the Padres have 17). For as much have there been games where it's a blowout early (i.e. half the Kluber starts), or where the offense just can't seem to get the big hit (most of June), this year compared to last if the team gets a lead they haven't puked away wins.
*knocks on wood*
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2023 11:22:11 GMT -5
Red Sox are currently at 56-47. Fangraphs projects them to essentially be .500 the rest of the way at 30-29 - which would get them to 86-76. And again, that's by playing .500sh ball - they play slightly better than that and they have an outside shot at 90 wins. (Fangraphs also project the Padres to have the second best winning percentage the last two months, so take this with a grain of salt: www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings)
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shagworthy
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Post by shagworthy on Sept 24, 2023 16:25:34 GMT -5
73 I'm coming in at 73 games, but they will be competitive in most of their games and not look like they can't wait to leave the ballpark. I think Yoshi and Casas will be studs, but until the cavalry comes back from the IL for the rotation there's going to be a lot of hard hit balls and frustrating innings. For the life of me I don't know why Ort is still on this team. Ok. So I was wrong about their competitiveness, these past few weeks this team has looked like they are ready for it all to be over.
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Post by yuchangclan on Sept 24, 2023 22:46:06 GMT -5
I’ll go with 78 wins. Too many old guys and too many injury prone guys. It’s a bad combo. I’m still alive here!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 26, 2023 12:09:39 GMT -5
As good a place to put this as anywhere ...
As of today, win percentages outside the division ...
.579 AL East .472 AL West .413 AL Central
And the remaining games outside the divisions are O's vs. Nats (2) and Yankees at Royals (3). So the final number is very likely to be higher (.598 is possible).
Current adjustment for the .579 puts the Sox at 80-76. Difference between East and Central is currently 9.6 wins, so Sox would be in first in the Central, 3 up even with the collapse. If in the West, we'd be tied with the Mariners (and like them, facing tough competition within the division).
SILVER LINING
What team is getting hosed out of a playoff spot due to bad geography?
Yup, the Yankees. And right now they look like the 5th best team in the league rather than the sixth (edging the Astros).
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