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Devers extended for 11 years/$331 million
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Post by dirtdog on Jan 4, 2023 21:42:34 GMT -5
Don't you dare trade Casas, Bello, or Rafaela. Be patient and we will be back. I dont think anybody really wants to do that but it all really depends on what is coming the other way.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jan 4, 2023 21:46:30 GMT -5
Hoooooold on. Are we the same crowd that just a few weeks ago was unanimous in believing the Red Sox were right to have nothing to do with paying X $280M over 11 years? And now everyone is thrilled about giving a lesser player $50M more? Yes, Raffy if fours younger, but he's also not as good and will probably be on the extreme left of the defensive spectrum for at least half of this contract. There's no place for him to go other than 1B and/or DH. I have mixed feelings about this contract. I like Raffy and he puts us a RH masher away from having a destructive L-R-L in the middle of the order for a few years. (Casas is the other lefty. I'm bullish on him.) They shouldn't have to pay a premium for a big RH big in the next couple of years because it can be a DH. And if Yoshi is the OBP machine he's touted to be, they'll have their leadoff hitter, too. OTOH, Raffy has averaged 3.8 B-Ref WAR and 4.5 FG WAR since 2019 (2020 pro-rated for both), so he hasn't shown himself to be a superstar player yet and we know the back ends of these contracts are rarely anything other than fugly. Not just ugly. Fugly. I also think this contract is for the wrong reasons. Posters are having fun with the jokes about how yelling at JWH produced this contract and I appreciate the humor. But I also think the posters making those jokes truly believe that PR was a driving factor. The Red Sox were embarrassed by the X fiasco, as well they should be, and responded with this contract. That's not a good way to run a business. We will never know the answer, but I'm certain Devers would have gotten more for another team next offseason. Players like Devers are incredibly rare and rarely hit free agents. You can cite all the analytics and metrics you want on Devers, but I'll trust my eyes on this one. What would you say if the Yankees signed Devers next offseason for 12 years $420 million?
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Post by GyIantosca on Jan 4, 2023 21:51:27 GMT -5
Yes, yes, thank you, thank you
I know Raffy did good but you can tell he wanted to stay here. Betts never had that signal.
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Post by benzinger on Jan 4, 2023 21:55:07 GMT -5
Wouldn’t that be something I *think* the Dodgers are clearing payroll and getting under the luxury tax with the express purpose of signing Ohtani next year. He’s going to command more per year than Judge just got. He might even push the $50m/year envelope. I don’t think the Sox are playing in that pool at all.
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Post by trajanacc on Jan 4, 2023 21:55:36 GMT -5
Hoooooold on. Are we the same crowd that just a few weeks ago was unanimous in believing the Red Sox were right to have nothing to do with paying X $280M over 11 years? And now everyone is thrilled about giving a lesser player $50M more? Yes, Raffy if fours younger, but he's also not as good and will probably be on the extreme left of the defensive spectrum for at least half of this contract. There's no place for him to go other than 1B and/or DH. I have mixed feelings about this contract. I like Raffy and he puts us a RH masher away from having a destructive L-R-L in the middle of the order for a few years. (Casas is the other lefty. I'm bullish on him.) They shouldn't have to pay a premium for a big RH big in the next couple of years because it can be a DH. And if Yoshi is the OBP machine he's touted to be, they'll have their leadoff hitter, too. OTOH, Raffy has averaged 3.8 B-Ref WAR and 4.5 FG WAR since 2019 (2020 pro-rated for both), so he hasn't shown himself to be a superstar player yet and we know the back ends of these contracts are rarely anything other than fugly. Not just ugly. Fugly. I also think this contract is for the wrong reasons. Posters are having fun with the jokes about how yelling at JWH produced this contract and I appreciate the humor. But I also think the posters making those jokes truly believe that PR was a driving factor. The Red Sox were embarrassed by the X fiasco, as well they should be, and responded with this contract. That's not a good way to run a business. Yeah but the 4 year age difference is the whole darn thing. If you wanna say Bogaerts will be more valuable than Devers for their respective age 30-36 years, fine, that could be true. But you can’t reasonably project Bogaerts age 37-40 to be worth close to Devers age 26-29.
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Post by runner on Jan 4, 2023 21:55:58 GMT -5
Fine... I'll say it. I would have rather given that deal to Carlos Correa and traded Devers. You should be disbarred from the site for that blasphemy!! Like has been said before, I would have agreed with him if Correa didn't fail 2 physicals. Correa's next contract should be interesting. I don't know how you go past 5 years with him knowing this.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 4, 2023 22:01:28 GMT -5
Hoooooold on. Are we the same crowd that just a few weeks ago was unanimous in believing the Red Sox were right to have nothing to do with paying X $280M over 11 years? And now everyone is thrilled about giving a lesser player $50M more? Yes, Raffy if fours younger, but he's also not as good and will probably be on the extreme left of the defensive spectrum for at least half of this contract. There's no place for him to go other than 1B and/or DH. I have mixed feelings about this contract. I like Raffy and he puts us a RH masher away from having a destructive L-R-L in the middle of the order for a few years. (Casas is the other lefty. I'm bullish on him.) They shouldn't have to pay a premium for a big RH big in the next couple of years because it can be a DH. And if Yoshi is the OBP machine he's touted to be, they'll have their leadoff hitter, too. OTOH, Raffy has averaged 3.8 B-Ref WAR and 4.5 FG WAR since 2019 (2020 pro-rated for both), so he hasn't shown himself to be a superstar player yet and we know the back ends of these contracts are rarely anything other than fugly. Not just ugly. Fugly. I also think this contract is for the wrong reasons. Posters are having fun with the jokes about how yelling at JWH produced this contract and I appreciate the humor. But I also think the posters making those jokes truly believe that PR was a driving factor. The Red Sox were embarrassed by the X fiasco, as well they should be, and responded with this contract. That's not a good way to run a business. Devers is 4 years younger, he might not have hit his peak yet and either way very likely has more peak years in his deal. He's a better hitter than Xander today, I'm not convinced he's as far off as a defender as last year's numbers show and he has a much better track record in high leverage. The biggest thing though is the age, Devers deal starts with his age 26 season and Xander's starts with his age 30 and that is a dramatic difference. I also totally disagree that the Red Sox did this as a response to embarrassment seeing as they've been more serious about Devers since at least last off-season given what we know about the offers made at the time. Maybe they increased their top end for the deal based on the pressure and market dynamic changes, but they were always serious about Devers (unlike Xander who they seemed to change their mind on).
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Post by benzinger on Jan 4, 2023 22:05:11 GMT -5
Yes, fans should never complain about 5th place 78 win teams who needlessly lose one of their two franchise players. Shame on them. Only verbal bouquets should be allowed. So let me ask you the questions I posted earlier: How many of these contracts do you think they should carry? And should it be for 30 year olds who may have rounded the bend, or for a player who's still climbing that curve? The endless noise on the board about the perceived failure seems not to have considered what are some fairly difficult financial issues. I think you can give out about 3-4 of these contracts as a large market team. The Yankees have Judge, Cole, Stanton & Rodon(plus some other expensive short-term deals). The Padres have Machado, Tatis & Xander(plus Soto and Darvish on large short-term deals). The Phillies have Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Realmuto, Castellanos, Wheeler(and others). Even the Rangers have Semien, DeGrom and Seager. I won’t even get into the Mets! The Sox now have Devers and Story? Maybe Sale, too? They can definitely afford to spend more.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 4, 2023 22:16:39 GMT -5
So let me ask you the questions I posted earlier: How many of these contracts do you think they should carry? And should it be for 30 year olds who may have rounded the bend, or for a player who's still climbing that curve? The endless noise on the board about the perceived failure seems not to have considered what are some fairly difficult financial issues. I think you can give out about 3-4 of these contracts as a large market team. The Yankees have Judge, Cole, Stanton & Rodon(plus some other expensive short-term deals). The Padres have Machado, Tatis & Xander(plus Soto and Darvish on large short-term deals). The Phillies have Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Realmuto, Castellanos, Wheeler(and others). Even the Rangers have Semien, DeGrom and Seager. I won’t even get into the Mets! The Sox now have Devers and Story? Maybe Sale, too? They can definitely afford to spend more. What's your criteria here? Sale's AAV is higher than half the guys on this list, Devers is higher than nearly all. If you can afford to give out three then... there ya go. EDIT: That said I'd spend pretty much any amount of John Henry's money to sign Shohei.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 4, 2023 22:31:15 GMT -5
Hoooooold on. Are we the same crowd that just a few weeks ago was unanimous in believing the Red Sox were right to have nothing to do with paying X $280M over 11 years? And now everyone is thrilled about giving a lesser player $50M more? Yes, Raffy if fours younger, but he's also not as good and will probably be on the extreme left of the defensive spectrum for at least half of this contract. There's no place for him to go other than 1B and/or DH. I have mixed feelings about this contract. I like Raffy and he puts us a RH masher away from having a destructive L-R-L in the middle of the order for a few years. (Casas is the other lefty. I'm bullish on him.) They shouldn't have to pay a premium for a big RH big in the next couple of years because it can be a DH. And if Yoshi is the OBP machine he's touted to be, they'll have their leadoff hitter, too. OTOH, Raffy has averaged 3.8 B-Ref WAR and 4.5 FG WAR since 2019 (2020 pro-rated for both), so he hasn't shown himself to be a superstar player yet and we know the back ends of these contracts are rarely anything other than fugly. Not just ugly. Fugly. I also think this contract is for the wrong reasons. Posters are having fun with the jokes about how yelling at JWH produced this contract and I appreciate the humor. But I also think the posters making those jokes truly believe that PR was a driving factor. The Red Sox were embarrassed by the X fiasco, as well they should be, and responded with this contract. That's not a good way to run a business. Yeah but the 4 year age difference is the whole darn thing. If you wanna say Bogaerts will be more valuable than Devers for their respective age 30-36 years, fine, that could be true. But you can’t reasonably project Bogaerts age 37-40 to be worth close to Devers age 26-29. A fair point (which is why I gave you a "like"!) But the $50M delta is substantial. And it's not like anyone on here was saying, "Eh, the Red Sox should have offered X $250M and see if he'd take the hometown discount." The overwhelming sentiment (which I shared) was that the Padres contract was nuts by many million of dollars.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 4, 2023 22:41:29 GMT -5
My (hyped up rose-colored in the moment) Devers projection for next season: - Avoids having a 30 wRC+ in August, lands at 165 for the season - Defense holds up as average-ish - 6.5-7 WAR top-5 MVP I'm not trying to be a knucklehead here, though I often do try to be a knucklehead. But why do you see a 6.5-7 WAR season for him in 2023? He achieved that level of FG WAR once and it was four years ago (6.7). He was at 5.7 B-Ref WAR that year. The projection systems have him well below that for next year.
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Post by benzinger on Jan 4, 2023 22:50:41 GMT -5
I think you can give out about 3-4 of these contracts as a large market team. The Yankees have Judge, Cole, Stanton & Rodon(plus some other expensive short-term deals). The Padres have Machado, Tatis & Xander(plus Soto and Darvish on large short-term deals). The Phillies have Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Realmuto, Castellanos, Wheeler(and others). Even the Rangers have Semien, DeGrom and Seager. I won’t even get into the Mets! The Sox now have Devers and Story? Maybe Sale, too? They can definitely afford to spend more. What's your criteria here? Sale's AAV is higher than half the guys on this list, Devers is higher than nearly all. If you can afford to give out three then... there ya go. EDIT: That said I'd spend pretty much any amount of John Henry's money to sign Shohei. I guess I’m looking at 3 long-term deals. Sale has only 2 years left. He’s an afterthought. I see that Shohei is the new Sean Murphy around these parts. Lol. I’d say they have a 5-10% chance of being real players on him. If the Mets want him, it’s all over. And I mentioned the Dodgers above. I think they will go all-in for Shohei.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 4, 2023 22:52:30 GMT -5
Hoooooold on. Are we the same crowd that just a few weeks ago was unanimous in believing the Red Sox were right to have nothing to do with paying X $280M over 11 years? And now everyone is thrilled about giving a lesser player $50M more? Yes, Raffy is four years younger, but he's also not as good and will probably be on the extreme left of the defensive spectrum for at least half of this contract. There's no place for him to go other than 1B and/or DH. I have mixed feelings about this contract. I like Raffy and he puts us a RH masher away from having a destructive L-R-L in the middle of the order for a few years. (Casas is the other lefty. I'm bullish on him.) They shouldn't have to pay a premium for a big RH big in the next couple of years because it can be a DH. And if Yoshi is the OBP machine he's touted to be, they'll have their leadoff hitter, too. OTOH, Raffy has averaged 3.8 B-Ref WAR and 4.5 FG WAR since 2019 (2020 pro-rated for both), so he hasn't shown himself to be a superstar player yet and we know the back ends of these contracts are rarely anything other than fugly. Not just ugly. Fugly. I also think this contract is for the wrong reasons. Posters are having fun with the jokes about how yelling at JWH produced this contract and I appreciate the humor. But I also think the posters making those jokes truly believe that PR was a driving factor. The Red Sox were embarrassed by the X fiasco, as well they should be, and responded with this contract. That's not a good way to run a business. We will never know the answer, but I'm certain Devers would have gotten more for another team next offseason. Players like Devers are incredibly rare and rarely hit free agents. You can cite all the analytics and metrics you want on Devers, but I'll trust my eyes on this one. What would you say if the Yankees signed Devers next offseason for 12 years $420 million? I'd say they way overpaid. Their bigger concern might be what Aaron Judge would say.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jan 4, 2023 22:54:31 GMT -5
I think you can give out about 3-4 of these contracts as a large market team. The Yankees have Judge, Cole, Stanton & Rodon(plus some other expensive short-term deals). The Padres have Machado, Tatis & Xander(plus Soto and Darvish on large short-term deals). The Phillies have Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Realmuto, Castellanos, Wheeler(and others). Even the Rangers have Semien, DeGrom and Seager. I won’t even get into the Mets! The Sox now have Devers and Story? Maybe Sale, too? They can definitely afford to spend more. What's your criteria here? Sale's AAV is higher than half the guys on this list, Devers is higher than nearly all. If you can afford to give out three then... there ya go. EDIT: That said I'd spend pretty much any amount of John Henry's money to sign Shohei. Devers, Story and Sale. There you go. We get under the cap this next year and then we can go over it and get a guy who will replace Sale’s money. Or perhaps we spread it around in the short term and then eventually use it to extend guys earlier in the future. It does really seem the Sox could’ve extended Bogaerts last off season but never gave a serious offer. In contrast it seems the red sox did seriously try with mookie.
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Post by stunzisox on Jan 4, 2023 23:05:55 GMT -5
Yeah but the 4 year age difference is the whole darn thing. If you wanna say Bogaerts will be more valuable than Devers for their respective age 30-36 years, fine, that could be true. But you can’t reasonably project Bogaerts age 37-40 to be worth close to Devers age 26-29. A fair point (which is why I gave you a "like"!) But the $50M delta is substantial. And it's not like anyone on here was saying, "Eh, the Red Sox should have offered X $250M and see if he'd take the hometown discount." The overwhelming sentiment (which I shared) was that the Padres contract was nuts by many million of dollars. It's been bandied about this offseason that 1 WAR is now worth roughly $10million in salary. I don't think it's a stretch, but rather the likelihood that Devers will be worth 5 war more than Xander over the life of their respective contracts. Now if we want to talk defensive value at each position and who projects better over time thats likely a fools errand to speculate, but I think Raffy is clearly the superior bat now and over the life of the contract my a wide margin. Those prime years ahead for Devers cannot be overstated.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 4, 2023 23:07:20 GMT -5
My (hyped up rose-colored in the moment) Devers projection for next season: - Avoids having a 30 wRC+ in August, lands at 165 for the season - Defense holds up as average-ish - 6.5-7 WAR top-5 MVP I'm not trying to be a knucklehead here, though I often do try to be a knucklehead. But why do you see a 6.5-7 WAR season for him in 2023? He achieved that level of FG WAR once and it was four years ago (6.7). He was at 5.7 B-Ref WAR that year. The projection systems have him well below that for next year. The first line explains the third there. He was one of the very best hitters/players in baseball, and on pace for 7+ WAR, until he had a hamstring injury he came back too early from and then put up a 30 wRC+ in August. I think he has a little defensive upside too. He's only going to be 26, very possible he hasn't reached his peak yet. As I said though it was an intentionally overly optimistic projection, I don't actually think this is going to happen, but it's totally within the realm of possibility.
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 4, 2023 23:14:55 GMT -5
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Post by GyIantosca on Jan 4, 2023 23:19:56 GMT -5
That’s why give him the loot.
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Post by runner on Jan 4, 2023 23:51:00 GMT -5
I really think that this Devers' contract is really going to be it for 200+ million dollar deals for a while, maybe the next 2-3 years at least (I'm thinking 5 years).
People have been posting about Ohtani, but this Devers' contract makes it less likely to get any players like that.
It really took a lot and a lot of time to even get this done, all off-season almost. I think that's the top dollar for the Sox. Raffy is the exception to the rule because quite frankly, ownership needed to save face with this deal. Season tickets were probably going into the toilet. Fans were resenting ownership instead of focusing on the actual team.
The Trevor Story and Yoshida contracts will always be there for Bloom and the team, but this will be the only contract that goes this long for this amount.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 4, 2023 23:55:52 GMT -5
Yes, fans should never complain about 5th place 78 win teams who needlessly lose one of their two franchise players. Shame on them. Only verbal bouquets should be allowed. So let me ask you the questions I posted earlier: How many of these contracts do you think they should carry? And should it be for 30 year olds who may have rounded the bend, or for a player who's still climbing that curve? The endless noise on the board about the perceived failure seems not to have considered what are some fairly difficult financial issues. Since you used my post for whatever reason to ask the question I'll give you my answer. I think the Sox can carry three of these big contracts. If it had been up to me it would have been Mookie, Xander, and Devers, all 3 unique in their own ways. I think the Sox could have afforded it. Put it to you like this. I worry about my finances constantly as I bust my butt to live paycheck to paycheck. I can't honestly say I worry much about John Henry and company's finances. I suspect he and his fellow billionaire partners dont live paycheck to paycheck. So their biggest issue would be the luxury tax penalties, which is money they certainly can afford as they are,the franchise that charges the highest ticket prices, and lesser penalties that if they have top notch scouting they can overcome. It's not often you have 3 guys who could be future HOFers like the Sox had with Mookie, X, and Raffy and if course Raffy and X weren't going to get their big deals until Sale's contract was nearing an end. As it was it wasn't going to cost even 200 million to keep X had the extension offer hadn't been such a lowball offer. So really you're talking two 300 million dollar deals and 170 million for X....so that probably would have meant no Trevor Story perhaps...honestly that wouldnt have bothered me. As it is I hope he has a couple of good years and them opts out as Mayer is ascending and hopefully Yorke or Rimero not too far behind. Anyways, I don't consider the concern on the board to be noise. I consider it to be concern by people who care deeply about what the Sox do or don't do. But this is a Devers thread so let's celebrate the great news.
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Post by rico6 on Jan 4, 2023 23:58:04 GMT -5
And about 331 million dollars richer.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Jan 4, 2023 23:59:11 GMT -5
Yeah but the 4 year age difference is the whole darn thing. If you wanna say Bogaerts will be more valuable than Devers for their respective age 30-36 years, fine, that could be true. But you can’t reasonably project Bogaerts age 37-40 to be worth close to Devers age 26-29. A fair point (which is why I gave you a "like"!) But the $50M delta is substantial. And it's not like anyone on here was saying, "Eh, the Red Sox should have offered X $250M and see if he'd take the hometown discount." The overwhelming sentiment (which I shared) was that the Padres contract was nuts by many million of dollars. I somewhat agree in that I don't think this is some huge bargain, I mean look what comparable players in Austin Riley and Jose Ramirez signed for. But, compared to Xander, this is a steal. Contracts are the same length, both cover the early and mid 30s of Xander and Devers. The difference is the Padres are paying for 4 or 5 years of late 30s Xander while the Red Sox are paying for 4 or 5 years of prime Devers. That's going to be much more than a $50M difference. Devers also was better from his age 22 to 25 seasons than Xander was, I wouldn't be surprised if he's better in his prime years and through his 30s. Devers is elite at doing the most important thing in baseball, consistently hitting the ball hard.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,903
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Post by nomar on Jan 5, 2023 0:01:46 GMT -5
A fair point (which is why I gave you a "like"!) But the $50M delta is substantial. And it's not like anyone on here was saying, "Eh, the Red Sox should have offered X $250M and see if he'd take the hometown discount." The overwhelming sentiment (which I shared) was that the Padres contract was nuts by many million of dollars. I somewhat agree in that I don't think this is some huge bargain, I mean look what comparable players in Austin Riley and Jose Ramirez signed for. But, compared to Xander, this is a steal. Contracts are the same length, both cover the early and mid 30s of Xander and Devers. The difference is the Padres are paying for 4 or 5 years of late 30s Xander while the Red Sox are paying for 4 or 5 years of prime Devers. That's going to be much more than a $50M difference. Devers also was better from his age 22 to 25 seasons than Xander was, I wouldn't be surprised if he's better in his prime years and through his 30s. Devers is elite at doing the most important thing in baseball, consistently hitting the ball hard. The Braves of this era collectively have the worst agents of any team in baseball history.
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Post by keninten on Jan 5, 2023 0:35:51 GMT -5
I'm not trying to be a knucklehead here, though I often do try to be a knucklehead. But why do you see a 6.5-7 WAR season for him in 2023? He achieved that level of FG WAR once and it was four years ago (6.7). He was at 5.7 B-Ref WAR that year. The projection systems have him well below that for next year. The first line explains the third there. He was one of the very best hitters/players in baseball, and on pace for 7+ WAR, until he had a hamstring injury he came back too early from and then put up a 30 wRC+ in August. I think he has a little defensive upside too. He's only going to be 26, very possible he hasn't reached his peak yet.
As I said though it was an intentionally overly optimistic projection, I don't actually think this is going to happen, but it's totally within the realm of possibility. Hopefully like Boggs got better.
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Post by keninten on Jan 5, 2023 0:44:48 GMT -5
So let me ask you the questions I posted earlier: How many of these contracts do you think they should carry? And should it be for 30 year olds who may have rounded the bend, or for a player who's still climbing that curve? The endless noise on the board about the perceived failure seems not to have considered what are some fairly difficult financial issues. I think you can give out about 3-4 of these contracts as a large market team. The Yankees have Judge, Cole, Stanton & Rodon(plus some other expensive short-term deals). The Padres have Machado, Tatis & Xander(plus Soto and Darvish on large short-term deals). The Phillies have Harper, Turner, Schwarber, Realmuto, Castellanos, Wheeler(and others). Even the Rangers have Semien, DeGrom and Seager. I won’t even get into the Mets! The Sox now have Devers and Story? Maybe Sale, too? They can definitely afford to spend more. The next big FA contract I`d consider would be Soto. Ohtani is a too big a risk. It would be nice to have the extra roster spot he creates but if he went down for any reason it would really hurt.
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