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Devers extended for 11 years/$331 million
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Post by benzinger on Jan 4, 2023 19:37:32 GMT -5
Woohoo! Look at the Red Sox finally deciding to be a Big Boy Franchise. About friggin’ time.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jan 4, 2023 19:40:37 GMT -5
Hallelujah ! Happy New Year !! Such Great News !!!
It is an over pay, but I'm over it already. One of the top offensive players in baseball is a Red Sox for years to come and that in and of itself is priceless !!!!
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Post by benzinger on Jan 4, 2023 19:42:31 GMT -5
Position player-wise I generally agree, but there are some excellent pitchers available after 2023. Scherzer (very possible opt-out), Nola, Darvish, Giolito, Urias, Severino. And then some guy named Ohtani, depending on how deep into that chase you want to get. And only having sale under contract one more year after that FA pitching class may make them more inclined to go get one of them. I'm sticking with my thought that this year isn't a bad year to try and duck under the tax. Even with the wonderful Devers news I'm still having a hard time seeing them be true WS competitors and adding an Elvis Andrus type that surely would put them over the tax isn't exactly going to push them to that tier for me. It's not my money though so if they want to go over again this year by all means go for it. Oh, they definitely aren’t “WS Competitors”. This is a last-place team that has(at least in my view) gotten considerably worse over the winter with the losses of Bogaerts, Eovaldi and Wacha. But at least they show they are trying to build something long-term. They’ll sign Vlad Jr in a couple years to put around Devers and Meyer and they’ll be all set.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jan 4, 2023 19:45:06 GMT -5
I think letting Xander walk and signing Devers to an extension was probably the most likely outcome heading into the offseason. I am less surprised that the Red Sox were willing to do this, and more surprised that Devers was willing to do this. After the market went nuts it seemed a foregone conclusion that he would test free agency unless he was blown away by an offer, and while this is a lot of money I don't think it counts as blown away. I think it just beats out Machado for largest contract given out to a 3B, which was maybe all he wanted.
All in all though I am glad Bloom and co finally made a big time commitment. Devers' bat is as good a bet as any in baseball to build a Red Sox team around, I just really hope his defense can at least stay acceptable and doesn't take a nosedive any time soon.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 4, 2023 19:46:09 GMT -5
So it's all coming from Devers' camp who prob isn't very sensitive to this exact issue.
I'm back to thinking 17.5 23 AAV
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 4, 2023 19:55:40 GMT -5
Thank God we woke up and got him extended. Slight overpay but really had to happen. Now sign Pollack or Brian Anderson as a right-handed hitting outfielder and play the kids. 2024 will be our year!
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Jan 4, 2023 19:56:47 GMT -5
So it's all coming from Devers' camp who prob isn't very sensitive to this exact issue. I'm back to thinking 17.5 23 AAV I wonder if they signed the 17.5 deal yesterday so they could put that number on the luxury tax for 2023 and then the extension operates as a 10/314 deal starting in 2024.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 4, 2023 19:57:44 GMT -5
Don't you dare trade Casas, Bello, or Rafaela. Be patient and we will be back.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 4, 2023 20:01:36 GMT -5
Thank God we woke up and got him extended. Slight overpay but really had to happen. Now sign Pollack or Brian Anderson as a right-handed hitting outfielder and play the kids. 2024 will be our year! Is it really an overpay though? Higher AAV than all the elite shortstops got this offseason but he’s also 3+ years younger than those guys and his value is much less tied to his defense. Seems pretty reasonable. I’d rather have Devers on this contract than Xander on his, pretty easily.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 4, 2023 20:02:31 GMT -5
So it's all coming from Devers' camp who prob isn't very sensitive to this exact issue. I'm back to thinking 17.5 23 AAV I wonder if they signed the 17.5 deal yesterday so they could put that number on the luxury tax for 2023 and then the extension operates as a 10/314 deal starting in 2024. Yeah I can’t imagine they’d announce the arb number if they weren’t going to have that be the 2023 AAV, it also seems like it wouldn’t matter to Devers what they did either way and it benefits the Sox to structure it that way, but who knows.
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Post by patford on Jan 4, 2023 20:06:01 GMT -5
Thank God we woke up and got him extended. Slight overpay but really had to happen. Now sign Pollack or Brian Anderson as a right-handed hitting outfielder and play the kids. 2024 will be our year! Considering his age and some of the crazy money being thrown around it's not an overpay.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 4, 2023 20:06:21 GMT -5
Thank God we woke up and got him extended. Slight overpay but really had to happen. Now sign Pollack or Brian Anderson as a right-handed hitting outfielder and play the kids. 2024 will be our year! Is it really an overpay though? Higher AAV than all the elite shortstops got this offseason but he’s also 3+ years younger than those guys and his value is much less tied to his defense. Seems pretty reasonable. I’d rather have Devers on this contract than Xander on his, pretty easily. Yeah this only takes him through his age 36 season, compared to through age 40 for the other guys. I know we all might be dead in ten years so whatever, but personally I imagine I'll still be rooting for the Red Sox and most guys are going to be a huge drag on a team if you had to sign them to like 4/120 at age 37. I much prefer this structure, but to each their own there.
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 4, 2023 20:30:37 GMT -5
Wouldn’t that be something
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Post by runner on Jan 4, 2023 20:38:51 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 4, 2023 20:45:09 GMT -5
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bigmarty58
Rookie
2011 Pancreatic Cancer Survivor - One of the lucky ones
Posts: 162
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Post by bigmarty58 on Jan 4, 2023 20:48:15 GMT -5
Good for now, better for the future!
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 4, 2023 21:11:40 GMT -5
To compare this with other big contracts, you have to adjust for the differing lengths, and look at ages. I looked at the number of regular players (300+ PA) and stars (ditto, 4.0+ fWAR) by age, the last 20 full seasons. Age Reg Star Star% 26 752 133 17.7% 27 777 150 19.3% 28 755 154 20.4% 29 717 137 19.1% 30 663 112 16.9% 31 642 98 15.3% 32 500 71 14.2% 33 428 56 13.1% 34 324 39 12.0% 35 238 29 12.2% 36 173 14 8.1% 37 123 11 8.9% 38 83 3 3.6% 39 45 1 2.2% 40 34 1 2.9%
Age 30 is a big filter for star % that is not relevant here. What's really informative is the big drop at age 36 and the essential disappearance of star seasons at age 38 and beyond (2 by Bonds, 1 each by Papi, Edgar Martinez, and Nelson Cruz).
So a quick and dirty length adjustment would be to count ages 36 and 37 as half-years and ignore 38 and on.
And here’s the last four seasons for four guys (fWAR per 600 PA with situational adjustment), plus their crudely estimated true $/ year.
Bogaerts 5.7, (3.1), 3.7, 4.6 = $40M
Turner 5.7, (4.2), 5.6, 6.4 = $43M
Correa 6.0, (1.4), 4.9, 3.1 = $35M
Devers 5.1, (5.0), 4.2, 5.2 = $33M Devers' certainly looks like the best contract even before you factor in his age window being moved 3 years younger compared to Xander and Turner, and 1 year younger than Correa.
I like this great deal a great deal.
----
Best part of this will be Dan Shaughnessy's reaction in the Globe (he's been convinced that ownership has become unwilling to spend any real money). I've grown quote fond of him, because he's an old school guy who is actually interested in learning more about the game, and will change his mind if given a good argument. He's just been given $314M worth.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 4, 2023 21:16:30 GMT -5
Well that's one fewer thing for people to complain about around here..... Yes, fans should never complain about 5th place 78 win teams who needlessly lose one of their two franchise players. Shame on them. Only verbal bouquets should be allowed. So let me ask you the questions I posted earlier: How many of these contracts do you think they should carry? And should it be for 30 year olds who may have rounded the bend, or for a player who's still climbing that curve? The endless noise on the board about the perceived failure seems not to have considered what are some fairly difficult financial issues.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jan 4, 2023 21:29:26 GMT -5
This will have larger ramifications for the organization than just signing a superstar player. This is the first time in awhile the Red Sox have shown the willingness to spend what it takes to retain a homegrown talent.
I am much more optimistic players like Casas and Bello will now get signed to to long term deals in the near future and then guys like Bleis and Mayer thereafter.
I'd also bet good money this deal seems like a steal in about 4 years when players like Devers hitting free agency are getting $40 million AAV. The Red Sox finally have their #3 hitter locked up for the next 11 years and can build around him. Devers is unique because all he does is rake and will be able to transition to DH when he gets older.
Most importantly, having a guy like Devers around spring training will significantly help the development of younger international players in the future. The Red Sox can point to Devers and say this guy is about to break every Red Sox record and he started just like. I'd bet Devers becomes an amazing mentor going forward and really helps younger international players get their footing when they enter the league.
F*** Yeah
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Post by stunzisox on Jan 4, 2023 21:31:53 GMT -5
Fine... I'll say it. I would have rather given that deal to Carlos Correa and traded Devers. You should be disbarred from the site for that blasphemy!!
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 4, 2023 21:32:02 GMT -5
Fine... I'll say it. I would have rather given that deal to Carlos Correa and traded Devers. Devers' ages 22 through 25 seasons have been better than Correa's 24 through 27. And that's based on rate per game and doesn't penalize Correa's injury history. Of course, he's presumably health... oh, wait.
Correa had 10.5 fWAR ages 22 to 25 (with situational adjustment*).
Devers has 17.9.
*Correa's situational hitting wins per 600 PA, starting in 2017:
-1.3 -0.8 -1.1 -1.8 (60 game sched, adds noise)
-0.9 -1.3
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 4, 2023 21:34:27 GMT -5
Hoooooold on. Are we the same crowd that just a few weeks ago was unanimous in believing the Red Sox were right to have nothing to do with paying X $280M over 11 years? And now everyone is thrilled about giving a lesser player $50M more? Yes, Raffy is four years younger, but he's also not as good and will probably be on the extreme left of the defensive spectrum for at least half of this contract. There's no place for him to go other than 1B and/or DH.
I have mixed feelings about this contract. I like Raffy and he puts us a RH masher away from having a destructive L-R-L in the middle of the order for a few years. (Casas is the other lefty. I'm bullish on him.) They shouldn't have to pay a premium for a big RH big in the next couple of years because it can be a DH. And if Yoshi is the OBP machine he's touted to be, they'll have their leadoff hitter, too.
OTOH, Raffy has averaged 3.8 B-Ref WAR and 4.5 FG WAR since 2019 (2020 pro-rated for both), so he hasn't shown himself to be a superstar player yet and we know the back ends of these contracts are rarely anything other than fugly. Not just ugly. Fugly.
I also think this contract is for the wrong reasons. Posters are having fun with the jokes about how yelling at JWH produced this contract and I appreciate the humor. But I also think the posters making those jokes truly believe that PR was a driving factor. The Red Sox were embarrassed by the X fiasco, as well they should be, and responded with this contract. That's not a good way to run a business.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 4, 2023 21:38:12 GMT -5
Best part of this will be Dan Shaughnessy's reaction in the Globe (he's been convinced that ownership has become unwilling to spend any real money). I've grown quote fond of him, because he's an old school guy who is actually interested in learning more about the game, and will change his mind if given a good argument. He's just been given $314M worth.
I hope Shank has some personal reasons to think ownership is cheap. If anybody deserves a light envelope on the 1st and 15th of every month, it's that hack.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jan 4, 2023 21:38:35 GMT -5
I was thinking “At Last” by Etta James, but this is great too.
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Post by jmei on Jan 4, 2023 21:39:30 GMT -5
No opt out is a nice touch.
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