ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 4, 2023 18:17:58 GMT -5
If his 23 AAV gets bumped up to 30, then we're like 3-4 million under the luxury tax right now Wouldn't it be about 7 or 8 under? I may be wrong but I thought they had about 20 under if Devers was at 17.5 this would subtract 13 from the 20ish. Doesn't leave much room either way though but that's fine to have rafi long term. I wonder if this is basically the roster though barring a trade since I don't know that they'll go over the luxury tax this year. Probably is a good season to reset now.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 4, 2023 18:19:28 GMT -5
My (hyped up rose-colored in the moment) Devers projection for next season:
- Avoids having a 30 wRC+ in August, lands at 165 for the season - Defense holds up as average-ish - 6.5-7 WAR top-5 MVP
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Post by dirtdog on Jan 4, 2023 18:20:28 GMT -5
Well now we know that all sox fans have to do to get someone signed long term is to go heckle John Henry into submission. Anyone want to go heckle Henry into signing Correa with me? Last I read it sounded like Correa and NYM were working on a resolution.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 4, 2023 18:21:57 GMT -5
Red Sox Payroll had us at 16.7 under after Kluber with Devers expected to get 17 I think. So with Devers at 30 we'd be like 3.7 under now. There's some realistic incentives players could hit so it's not simple to figure
Dumping Brasier would give us just enough for Joey Wendle I think
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Post by kwodes on Jan 4, 2023 18:24:46 GMT -5
Red Sox Payroll had us at 16.7 under after Kluber with Devers expected to get 17 I think. So with Devers at 30 we'd be like 3.7 under now. There's some realistic incentives players could hit so it's not simple to figure Dumping Brasier would give us just enough for Joey Wendle I think Extension starts in 2024. This year he'll be at 17.5
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 4, 2023 18:25:54 GMT -5
Red Sox Payroll had us at 16.7 under after Kluber with Devers expected to get 17 I think. So with Devers at 30 we'd be like 3.7 under now. There's some realistic incentives players could hit so it's not simple to figure Dumping Brasier would give us just enough for Joey Wendle I think Extension starts in 2024. This year he'll be at 17.5 That's been disputed by an Alex Speier tweet. Sounds like the extension kicks in now.
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 4, 2023 18:26:58 GMT -5
So really signing him 10/314 after this season? That’s even more “reasonable”
I guess they agreed to the amount for arb so that is on the 2023 books, then when season starts the extension is signed but 2023 already fixed so the AAV only ups in 2024
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Post by runner on Jan 4, 2023 18:29:00 GMT -5
Red Sox Payroll had us at 16.7 under after Kluber with Devers expected to get 17 I think. So with Devers at 30 we'd be like 3.7 under now. There's some realistic incentives players could hit so it's not simple to figure Dumping Brasier would give us just enough for Joey Wendle I think I think this means that the Sox are going over the CBT.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Jan 4, 2023 18:30:50 GMT -5
Extension starts in 2024. This year he'll be at 17.5 That's been disputed by an Alex Speier tweet. Sounds like the extension kicks in now. Kind of unclear whether Speier meant the AAV kicks in this year or not, because you can choose. It could be a 10/314 deal and the reporting was just lumping it together with the 1/17.5 That would make sense with the 331/332 discrepancy.
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Post by terriblehondo on Jan 4, 2023 18:31:23 GMT -5
This is great news. I didn't think there was a chance he wasn't going to free agency. All the negative press got the Sox to open the purse for him.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 4, 2023 18:32:19 GMT -5
Red Sox Payroll had us at 16.7 under after Kluber with Devers expected to get 17 I think. So with Devers at 30 we'd be like 3.7 under now. There's some realistic incentives players could hit so it's not simple to figure Dumping Brasier would give us just enough for Joey Wendle I think I think this means that the Sox are going over the CBT. Not so sure on that, definitely would seem to make it more possible now but I'm not sure I want them to go over. This offseason seems a good time to reset. Then again if they're competitive and in the race at the deadline they probably will make a trade(s) that may put them over anyway since they're pretty close anyway. Sounds like signing any MI who could possibly start will put them over.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 4, 2023 18:33:01 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 4, 2023 18:35:19 GMT -5
Red Sox Payroll had us at 16.7 under after Kluber with Devers expected to get 17 I think. So with Devers at 30 we'd be like 3.7 under now. There's some realistic incentives players could hit so it's not simple to figure Dumping Brasier would give us just enough for Joey Wendle I think Dumping Brasier also probably leaves enough for Iglesias or Rojas but not Andrus.
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Post by runner on Jan 4, 2023 18:37:47 GMT -5
I think this means that the Sox are going over the CBT. Not so sure on that, definitely would seem to make it more possible now but I'm not sure I want them to go over. This offseason seems a good time to reset. Then again if they're competitive and in the race at the deadline they probably will make a trade(s) that may put them over anyway since they're pretty close anyway. Sounds like signing any MI who could possibly start will put them over. It's alright to go over 2 years in a row. There's not many free agents worth signing next year, so I actually think it's a good time to go over again.
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Post by melvinhoggs on Jan 4, 2023 18:48:20 GMT -5
Not so sure on that, definitely would seem to make it more possible now but I'm not sure I want them to go over. This offseason seems a good time to reset. Then again if they're competitive and in the race at the deadline they probably will make a trade(s) that may put them over anyway since they're pretty close anyway. Sounds like signing any MI who could possibly start will put them over. It's alright to go over 2 years in a row. There's not many free agents worth signing next year, so I actually think it's a good time to go over again. Position player-wise I generally agree, but there are some excellent pitchers available after 2023. Scherzer (very possible opt-out), Nola, Darvish, Giolito, Urias, Severino. And then some guy named Ohtani, depending on how deep into that chase you want to get.
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Post by runner on Jan 4, 2023 18:53:36 GMT -5
It's alright to go over 2 years in a row. There's not many free agents worth signing next year, so I actually think it's a good time to go over again. Position player-wise I generally agree, but there are some excellent pitchers available after 2023. Scherzer (very possible opt-out), Nola, Darvish, Giolito, Urias, Severino. And then some guy named Ohtani, depending on how deep into that chase you want to get. I think Darvish and Scherzer have already been offered the QO before, could be wrong. The only 2 names that interests me on that list is Severino and Urias. Urias is going to get a ton in free agency, and I really wouldn't want to spend on Severino long term with his arm already needing one Tommy John surgery. He throws mainly hard fastballs and sliders (bad for UCL's). Would rather see Bello extended instead.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 4, 2023 18:57:00 GMT -5
It's alright to go over 2 years in a row. There's not many free agents worth signing next year, so I actually think it's a good time to go over again. Position player-wise I generally agree, but there are some excellent pitchers available after 2023. Scherzer (very possible opt-out), Nola, Darvish, Giolito, Urias, Severino. And then some guy named Ohtani, depending on how deep into that chase you want to get. And only having sale under contract one more year after that FA pitching class may make them more inclined to go get one of them. I'm sticking with my thought that this year isn't a bad year to try and duck under the tax. Even with the wonderful Devers news I'm still having a hard time seeing them be true WS competitors and adding an Elvis Andrus type that surely would put them over the tax isn't exactly going to push them to that tier for me. It's not my money though so if they want to go over again this year by all means go for it.
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Post by notstarboard on Jan 4, 2023 18:58:51 GMT -5
If Speier is right, this is probably too much money, but it's within the realm of reason and I'm happy as a fan that Devers is going to be around for a long time.
If the others are right that it starts in 2024, this deal looks pretty terrible.
Edit: Although if it calms down the pessimism on the forum that's pretty valuable to me regardless lol
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Post by melvinhoggs on Jan 4, 2023 19:00:04 GMT -5
Position player-wise I generally agree, but there are some excellent pitchers available after 2023. Scherzer (very possible opt-out), Nola, Darvish, Giolito, Urias, Severino. And then some guy named Ohtani, depending on how deep into that chase you want to get. I think Darvish and Scherzer have already been offered the QO before, could be wrong. The only 2 names that interests me on that list is Severino and Urias. Urias is going to get a ton in free agency, and I really wouldn't want to spend on Severino long term with his arm already needing one Tommy John surgery. He throws mainly hard fastballs and sliders (bad for UCL's). Would rather see Bello extended instead. I'm speaking less about the QO and more about the best time to start consistently going over the tax threshold. You want to reset the penalty at some point – and preferably not when you're in a really good position to compete (because you'd theoretically want to be spending more to put yourself over the top). Now seems like a really good time to reset, given that the Sox are okay but far from any kind of favorites and they want to see how their younger guys develop (Casas, Bello, etc.). If you like where the team is at next offseason, then at that time they should be in a much better spot to spend.
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Post by runner on Jan 4, 2023 19:16:53 GMT -5
I think Darvish and Scherzer have already been offered the QO before, could be wrong. The only 2 names that interests me on that list is Severino and Urias. Urias is going to get a ton in free agency, and I really wouldn't want to spend on Severino long term with his arm already needing one Tommy John surgery. He throws mainly hard fastballs and sliders (bad for UCL's). Would rather see Bello extended instead. I'm speaking less about the QO and more about the best time to start consistently going over the tax threshold. You want to reset the penalty at some point – and preferably not when you're in a really good position to compete (because you'd theoretically want to be spending more to put yourself over the top). Now seems like a really good time to reset, given that the Sox are okay but far from any kind of favorites and they want to see how their younger guys develop (Casas, Bello, etc.). If you like where the team is at next offseason, then at that time they should be in a much better spot to spend. I don't see the Sox being competitive this year unless they keep spending. There's no reason to spend one year only to duck under again. That'll make last year's decision to not go under look even more negligent. If they're only 3 million away from the CBT line and it's not even February, then they're probably going over. Unless they start dealing salary like Barnes, Pivetta, Brasier, Verdugo.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 4, 2023 19:20:24 GMT -5
I'm speaking less about the QO and more about the best time to start consistently going over the tax threshold. You want to reset the penalty at some point – and preferably not when you're in a really good position to compete (because you'd theoretically want to be spending more to put yourself over the top). Now seems like a really good time to reset, given that the Sox are okay but far from any kind of favorites and they want to see how their younger guys develop (Casas, Bello, etc.). If you like where the team is at next offseason, then at that time they should be in a much better spot to spend. I don't see the Sox being competitive this year unless they keep spending. There's no reason to spend one year only to duck under again. That'll make last year's decision to not go under look even more negligent. If they're only 3 million away from the CBT and it's not even February, then they're probably going over. Unless they start dealing salary like Barnes, Pivetta, Brasier, Verdugo. Keep spending on who at this point though? I don't see any of the FAs left really moving the needle very much. Hard for me to envision any of the FAs left really making much difference in being competitors this season or not. The difference is going to have to come from within at this point in my mind.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 4, 2023 19:22:22 GMT -5
happy for Rafi, happy for Chaim and happy for unquantifiable entity called Red Sox legacy. Was on the record as thinking this would not happen, happy to wrong on that one. Add. also now people can stfu about the people who won't stfu !
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Post by runner on Jan 4, 2023 19:25:12 GMT -5
I don't see the Sox being competitive this year unless they keep spending. There's no reason to spend one year only to duck under again. That'll make last year's decision to not go under look even more negligent. If they're only 3 million away from the CBT and it's not even February, then they're probably going over. Unless they start dealing salary like Barnes, Pivetta, Brasier, Verdugo. Keep spending on who at this point though? I don't see any of the FAs left really moving the needle very much. Hard for me to envision any of the FAs left really making much difference in being competitors this season or not. The difference is going to have to come from within at this point in my mind. Teams leave generally 10-15 million on the trade deadline. Maybe more if they can smell blood and are close to the playoffs. There's a long list of arbitration players the Sox can trade for right now that make money. It's possible they could duck under, but like I said, you're dealing someone like Pivetta and/or Barnes to get there. They'll be playing that weird game all year of not being that active at the trade deadline if they do decide to go under already.
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Post by chr31ter on Jan 4, 2023 19:31:33 GMT -5
Fine... I'll say it.
I would have rather given that deal to Carlos Correa and traded Devers.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Jan 4, 2023 19:35:16 GMT -5
Fine... I'll say it. I would have rather given that deal to Carlos Correa and traded Devers. Parallel universe Correa who is healthy? Or the real Correa who has already sent two suitors running for the hills because he’s a time bomb?
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