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Red Sox Sign Adam Duvall (1 Year/$7 million)
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 27, 2023 23:06:38 GMT -5
I don’t think Refsnyder makes enough money or plays good enough defense to impact what they do with Duvall. Duvall would be signed as an every day player. If they trade Verdugo I think he’s brought back. I understand we have guys like Abreu and Rafaela waiting in the wings but you can’t bank on them and be serious about contending. I also think they could move on from Refsnyder pretty easily, it’s not something that would be a hard decision to wrestle with if there isn’t a roster fit after the off-season Assuming the Red Sox can get Duvall to Re-sign, then Refsnyder could be traded for a minor league prospect who does not need to be added to the 40-man, effectively open a spot for an additional Red Sox Rule 5 player.
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Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2023 5:44:47 GMT -5
I don’t think Refsnyder makes enough money or plays good enough defense to impact what they do with Duvall. Duvall would be signed as an every day player. If they trade Verdugo I think he’s brought back. I understand we have guys like Abreu and Rafaela waiting in the wings but you can’t bank on them and be serious about contending. I also think they could move on from Refsnyder pretty easily, it’s not something that would be a hard decision to wrestle with if there isn’t a roster fit after the off-season Assuming the Red Sox can get Duvall to Re-sign, then Refsnyder could be traded for a minor league prospect who does not need to be added to the 40-man, effectively open a spot for an additional Red Sox Rule 5 player. The timing does not quite work since players need to be added to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft quite early in the offseason before most free agents have signed and trades completed.
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Post by bg23 on Aug 28, 2023 6:53:44 GMT -5
Would the Red Sox think of QO’ing Duvall? It’s not the best value proposition, but if: 1. Duvall wants multiple years 2. the Red Sox feel the need to bring his righty power bat back 3. the Red Sox prefer a shorter term, and 4. the Red Sox are going over the tax line anyway Would it make any sense? It’s going to be an overpay but if it gives the Red Sox what they want, does that really matter?
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cdj
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Posts: 14,541
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Post by cdj on Aug 28, 2023 8:05:36 GMT -5
Would the Red Sox think of QO’ing Duvall? It’s not the best value proposition, but if: 1. Duvall wants multiple years 2. the Red Sox feel the need to bring his righty power bat back 3. the Red Sox prefer a shorter term, and 4. the Red Sox are going over the tax line anyway Would it make any sense? It’s going to be an overpay but if it gives the Red Sox what they want, does that really matter? Tbh I’ve wondered the same- especially if we already plan on going over the threshold
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,830
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 28, 2023 8:19:59 GMT -5
It has been said but we need his right-handed bat and he is a decent outfielder. I'd love for Turner to come back for another year, but I'm pessimistic. He will also be 39. You have to wonder, if Duvall hadn't got hurt, what kind of numbers would he have put-up?
IMO, he is a perfect fit for us and if you haven't lately looked at the free agency list, WHO is better? We have toom many lefties and really need that righthand pop.
I'd love to see them give him a 2-year contract or a one with an option.
The power that has already been present over the last 25 games shows you how important that is for our continued success.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 28, 2023 8:23:34 GMT -5
Refsnyder will not impact their ability to get Duvall. Ref is a bench player Duvall is only signing to be a starter.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 28, 2023 8:29:00 GMT -5
Would the Red Sox think of QO’ing Duvall? It’s not the best value proposition, but if: 1. Duvall wants multiple years 2. the Red Sox feel the need to bring his righty power bat back 3. the Red Sox prefer a shorter term, and 4. the Red Sox are going over the tax line anyway Would it make any sense? It’s going to be an overpay but if it gives the Red Sox what they want, does that really matter? I think there's no shot, personally. Even if the sox blow past the tax threshold and want to keep Duvall, I bet he'd sign a 1+1 sort of deal worth less guaranteed than a QO. Odds of him suddenly becoming a much better hitter at age 34 seem slim; I'm betting on sample size.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 28, 2023 8:35:35 GMT -5
Such a conundrum of an offseason this is going to be. The team could consider itself set at every position, even letting Turner and Duvall go: Yoshida to DH, outfield of Verdugo, Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Refsnyder.
That helps improve the defense, which they desperately need to do. But there's some serious offensive downside risk with that outfield: Verdugo seems destined for a 105-110 wRC+ every season; Duran is at 120 but with an xwOBA that's 35 points worse than his wOBA. And Abreu and Rafaela are unknown quantities.
Overall the team has a 105 wRC+, which is only 10th best in the majors - it's okay, but not really what you want if you're trying to compete for a pennant. And guess which two guys are leading the team in that stat?
Duvall 135 Turner 130
They need to somehow replace that production just to run in place. So bring back Turner? Well, then you're back to playing Yoshida in the outfield (by the way, I wonder if that's part of what's causing his late-season slump; didn't he do a lot of DHing in Japan?). And Turner will be 39; he's going to stop being able to hit (or stay on the field) at some point, and at his age that could happen at any time.
Bring back Duvall? He's about to turn 35 himself, and he's rocking a huge wOBA-xwOBA split (.376 vs. .315). He's also historically had trouble staying on the field and despite a good track record has been pretty mediocre on defense this year.
Are there better RH outfield bat options on the FA market? Here they are with 2023 and career wRC+:
AJ Pollock 43/111
Teoscar Hernandez 109/118 Mark Canha 103/116 Hunter Renfroe 95/107 Randal Grichuk 91/99 Wil Myers 43/108 Tommy Pham 118/117 Harrison Bader 78/94 Michael Taylor 96/82 Lourdes Gurriel 103/112
I don't see a better option than Duvall there, honestly. Teoscar is a little bit intriguing, but he looks like he's not so much having a down year as following a very typical arc of decline: xwOBA has decreased every year since 2020 and he'll be 31. Whereas Duvall has been on the same plateau basically since 2018. But realistically we have to expect some regression from him.
There is one other option, though: a DH who could theoretically play the outfield, though he's done it for only a few innings ian the past. He is known, however, for some additional positional flexibility...
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Post by soxfanatic on Aug 28, 2023 8:37:43 GMT -5
Duvall's year is really interesting. He's on pace for his highest single season wRC+ mark ever by a fairly large margin: 135 vs. 120. He set that mark in 41 games in 2019. But a lot of underlying metrics are in line with career marks. He's a dead pull hitter that benefits a LOT from Fenway. If there's a player the Sox can extract maximum value from it's him. Look at that spray chart: baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/adam-duvall-594807?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
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Post by okin15 on Aug 28, 2023 8:39:55 GMT -5
I don't see a better option than Duvall there, honestly. Teoscar is a little bit intriguing, but he looks like he's not so much having a down year as following a very typical arc of decline: xwOBA has decreased every year since 2020 and he'll be 31. Whereas Duvall has been on the same plateau basically since 2018. But realistically we have to expect some regression from him. There is one other option, though: a DH who could theoretically play the outfield, though he's done it for only a few innings ian the past. He is known, however, for some additional positional flexibility...
I'm on the edge of my seat!
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Post by bg23 on Aug 28, 2023 9:35:19 GMT -5
Would the Red Sox think of QO’ing Duvall? It’s not the best value proposition, but if: 1. Duvall wants multiple years 2. the Red Sox feel the need to bring his righty power bat back 3. the Red Sox prefer a shorter term, and 4. the Red Sox are going over the tax line anyway Would it make any sense? It’s going to be an overpay but if it gives the Red Sox what they want, does that really matter? I think there's no shot, personally. Even if the sox blow past the tax threshold and want to keep Duvall, I bet he'd sign a 1+1 sort of deal worth less guaranteed than a QO. Odds of him suddenly becoming a much better hitter at age 34 seem slim; I'm betting on sample size. I am leaning towards no myself, but wanted to put the question out there. I guess a better question would be: are the Red Sox going to to make him a priority to the point where they are aggressive enough to get something done early in the offseason? Not a very Bloom like tactic, but not sure how the offense recovers if it loses both him and Turner. Given that Turner is about to 39 and very much a DH, I assume Duvall would be the target.
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Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2023 9:47:57 GMT -5
I wouldn't focus too too much about trying to upgrade the outfield as compared to 2023. The Red Sox have received pretty good outfield production this year, coming in at seventh in MLB in fWAR and fifth in MLB in wRC+ so far. Running in place is more than sufficient. (Where they really need to upgrade is 2B (29th in MLB), SS (28th) and SP (23rd), but those are other threads.) With that said, I'm supportive of bringing back Duvall, trading Refsnyder, keeping Verdugo, not re-signing Turner and going into opening day with something like this (with further adjustments as you get deeper into the season based on performance/health): - LF: 70% Duvall, 30% Yoshida
- RF: 80% Verdugo, 20% Duvall
- CF: 70% Duran, 30% Rafaela
- DH: 60% Yoshida, 40% Devers/assorted others
Or, put another way: - 90% Yoshida (60% DH, 30% LF)
- 90% Duvall (70% LF, 20% RF)
- 80% Verdugo (all RF)
- 70% Duran (all CF)
- 30% Rafaela (all CF, with some additional playing time at SS/2B)
(If you like, you can swap Duvall with Duran so that Duran plays mostly LF and Duvall plays mostly CF. But I think they're about equivalent defenders at this point in their respective careers, and doing it this way makes the platoons a little easier to implement. You could also think about putting Duvall mostly at RF and Verdugo mostly at LF, but Verdugo has been great at RF this year and his superior range will be useful there in Fenway.)
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Aug 28, 2023 10:30:53 GMT -5
Re-signing Duvall makes zero sense. He'll be going into his age 35 season and the team will have Duran, Verdugo, Yoshida, Abreu and Rafaella. Even if Yoshida moves to DH then you still have 4 outfielders for 3 spots not counting Duvall.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Aug 28, 2023 10:37:03 GMT -5
Re-signing Duvall makes zero sense. He'll be going into his age 35 season and the team will have Duran, Verdugo, Yoshida, Abreu and Rafaella. Even if Yoshida moves to DH then you still have 4 outfielders for 3 spots not counting Duvall. Duvall has a higher OPS than all of those players, and 80% of them are LHH. Even if the defensive side of it becomes muddy, there is a ton of sense in retaining him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 28, 2023 10:59:37 GMT -5
The number of people who barely gave Abreu a thought on August 1 who are now willing to commit to him on the MLB roster for next year because he's had a good month is very interesting.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 28, 2023 11:13:45 GMT -5
I am just a simple man who shifts my priors as new evidence rolls in.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 28, 2023 11:58:06 GMT -5
Would the Red Sox think of QO’ing Duvall? It’s not the best value proposition, but if: 1. Duvall wants multiple years 2. the Red Sox feel the need to bring his righty power bat back 3. the Red Sox prefer a shorter term, and 4. the Red Sox are going over the tax line anyway Would it make any sense? It’s going to be an overpay but if it gives the Red Sox what they want, does that really matter? Tbh I’ve wondered the same- especially if we already plan on going over the threshold According to Fangraphs, he's generated $17.8M in value so far this year. That's pretty close to QO money and may even out by Oct 1. If it's just math, it seems like a good play. Of course, there are always other considerations such as who they may get in free agency or trade for.
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Post by bg23 on Aug 28, 2023 12:08:36 GMT -5
Relying on Abreu or even Rafaela to be impactful regulars from the start next year would be a recipe for potential disaster. Not that they won’t be good players eventually, but asking that of them as rookies is probably more than should be expected. I’ve been higher than most on both even prior to their hot streaks in AAA, but I’m not penciling either in for a starting spot next year. Even relying on Duran to be an impactful regular might be asking a lot for next year. The defense is still suspect, the BABIP regression may hit him hard, and we still don’t have a good idea of if he can really hit lefties. And I really like Duran! But depth, lineup construction, and flexibility are hugely important. Yoshida has been one of my favorite players to watch, but given our defensive issues, one of him, Devers, or Casas should really be DH’ing and Yoshida makes the most sense given the age and potential defensive upside (is it considered upside if the upside is merely being bad rather than awful?) of the other two. If the plan is for Yoshida to DH and to let Turner go in FA, then a righty power bat in the outfield is a big need. It doesn’t have to be Duvall, but given the other options and his performance for the Sox this year, I think most people agree he makes most sense.
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Post by nonothing on Aug 28, 2023 15:06:53 GMT -5
The answer to whether they sign one or both of Turner and Duvall comes down to what they need to pay to fix their starting pitching, in my opinion. What they really need is a potential top of the rotation starter.
Seems like I will get a tirade here, but the problem in the OF is Masa. He is 30, gets tired too easily and plays bad defense. His only plus tool is his hit tool. Is he better than Verdugo? Maybe he is less streaky... but production at the plate is very similar. On defense, Verdugo is an asset and Masa is a liability. There is no way you would want to pay $18M for a DH over 30 with his skillset. We have too many defensive liabilities, but he could be traded for real value to a team that has a need for a solid LH hitter and can play LF some of the time.
If the Red Sox do not sign Yamamoto (where having a Japanese teammate could be of high value to both), they should deal Yoshida. Then we clear $18M/year and can sign both Duvall and Turner.
OF Starters: Duvall in CF, Verdugo in RF and Duran in LF. Refsnyder as 4th/5th OF. One of Rafaela or Abreu make the team out of camp - the other in AAA and expected to see MLB time as result of typical injuries. Team should also get Duvall reps at 1B, where he has played before in case we either don't sign Turner or he is injured and we need a RH bat who can take reps. If Rafaela is so good he runs away with a starting job and Abreu looks really great as well, then maybe Sox move Verdugo at the deadline and have Rafaela and Duvall in CF/RF and Duran in LF, with Abreu and Refsnyder in 4/5 duties, with Duvall maybe getting some time at 1B.
In this scenario, Turner can be primary DH, with Devers and Duvall getting reps there as well (and maybe Story occasionally if his arm needs more resting through the season next year).
Duvall's skill set (can play all OF positions with RH power bat made for Fenway) is a huge plus for the Sox and creates balance in their lineup. They should definitely try to resign him. If the kids push the OF playing time issue, fantastic! He can still play RF/DH/little 1B, and Verdugo can go on the block mid-year if they don't have injuries and feel they can absorb the depth hit. More likely, they keep Verdugo through the year because injuries require depth - but everyone has enough PT. The key is trading Masa -- not failing to sign Duvall, who is worth more to the Red Sox, yet will likely cost them less, while freeing up Masa to get value toward pitching need.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,952
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 29, 2023 5:19:45 GMT -5
Bring back Duvall? He's about to turn 35 himself, and he's rocking a huge wOBA-xwOBA split (.376 vs. .315).
Some wondrous Duvall 2023 stats. First number is all of MLB.
FB % (of all batted balls): .263, 360
Pull % on fly balls: .268, .525
xwOBA / wOBA on pulled fly balls:
.669 / .887 (extra 32.6%) MLB
.785 / .997 (extra 27.0%) Duvall
Another goodie -- FB and LD combined --
.322, .365, .313, pull, straight, oppo, MLB
.700, .192, .108, ditto for Duvall
He does have good karma on pulled line drives on the road, but he's done that three years in a row now.
The only thing that looks like it might be lucky is his 11 pulled ground balls at home, .279 / .467. But .279 is crazy good, 95th percentile (MLB is .226). And if you spread your pulled balls from the borderline with straight to the foul line, that's going to translate to more hits. Still, overall he's 3rd in MLB in wOBA - xwOBA on grounders, out of 423 guys with 30+ grounders.
There's probably some luck here, but Duvall's GB% is .207 vs. the league .429.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 29, 2023 10:43:39 GMT -5
Bring back Duvall? He's about to turn 35 himself, and he's rocking a huge wOBA-xwOBA split (.376 vs. .315).
Some wondrous Duvall 2023 stats. First number is all of MLB.
FB % (of all batted balls): .263, 360
Pull % on fly balls: .268, .525
xwOBA / wOBA on pulled fly balls:
.669 / .887 (extra 32.6%) MLB
.785 / .997 (extra 27.0%) Duvall
Another goodie -- FB and LD combined --
.322, .365, .313, pull, straight, oppo, MLB
.700, .192, .108, ditto for Duvall
He does have good karma on pulled line drives on the road, but he's done that three years in a row now.
The only thing that looks like it might be lucky is his 11 pulled ground balls at home, .279 / .467. But .279 is crazy good, 95th percentile (MLB is .226). And if you spread your pulled balls from the borderline with straight to the foul line, that's going to translate to more hits. Still, overall he's 3rd in MLB in wOBA - xwOBA on grounders, out of 423 guys with 30+ grounders.
There's probably some luck here, but Duvall's GB% is .207 vs. the league .429.
Good stuff. I'd already concluded that he was the best option of any available outfielders but this solidifies it.
Seamus' comment from Jan. 19th, on the bottom of page 7 of this thread, also makes for interesting retrospective reading: (FYI, he's at a 138 wRC+ right now.)
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 29, 2023 11:41:25 GMT -5
Not to make this an FA thing but to tie everything together.
For me, trading Verdugo and Duran out. Signing Turner to a 1 year deal (will be at a higher amount than his 2023 Salary). Resigning Duvall to a 1 year (again higher than his 2023 salary).
Yoshida in LF, Rafaela in CF / Duvall / Abreu platoon in RF, with Duvall basically being a starter by either starting in RF and spelling Yoshida and Rafaela.
Still weakish, but we still won't really be in a position next year to really go after it.... that looks like 2025
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Post by chaimtime on Aug 29, 2023 12:14:50 GMT -5
Not to make this an FA thing but to tie everything together. For me, trading Verdugo and Duran out. Signing Turner to a 1 year deal (will be at a higher amount than his 2023 Salary). Resigning Duvall to a 1 year (again higher than his 2023 salary). Yoshida in LF, Rafaela in CF / Duvall / Abreu platoon in RF, with Duvall basically being a starter by either starting in RF and spelling Yoshida and Rafaela. Still weakish, but we still won't really be in a position next year to really go after it.... that looks like 2025 Do you think this is an improvement over this year’s outfield? I only ask because you called it weakish, but the outfield has been strong this year—comfortably top-10 by fWAR as a position group.
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Post by jmei on Aug 29, 2023 13:00:21 GMT -5
I am fine with Duvall on a one-year deal in the $12-15M range, especially if they're planning to go over the CBT. I am quite a bit more nervous if he wants a multi-year deal. The right handed power is sorely needed, but he's not an adequate defensive center fielder at this point in his career, he's had some injury issues and he's at the age where performance can quickly collapse.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 29, 2023 13:28:58 GMT -5
Not to make this an FA thing but to tie everything together. For me, trading Verdugo and Duran out. Signing Turner to a 1 year deal (will be at a higher amount than his 2023 Salary). Resigning Duvall to a 1 year (again higher than his 2023 salary). Yoshida in LF, Rafaela in CF / Duvall / Abreu platoon in RF, with Duvall basically being a starter by either starting in RF and spelling Yoshida and Rafaela. Still weakish, but we still won't really be in a position next year to really go after it.... that looks like 2025 Do you think this is an improvement over this year’s outfield? I only ask because you called it weakish, but the outfield has been strong this year—comfortably top-10 by fWAR as a position group. I find Duran's season as more of a fluke than a norm. We just don't have much power from any side coming from the outfield. The one I proposed is probably close offensively, to the 2023 outfield, but I would expect better defense out there if Rafaela is anywhere close to what is projected from him
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