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Red Sox Sign Adam Duvall (1 Year/$7 million)
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 17, 2023 12:51:56 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Jan 17, 2023 12:59:21 GMT -5
I guess what this does is allow them to gut it out with Kiké and Arroyo as starting middle infielders if they don't manage to pull off a trade or sign Andrus. That's a pretty grim scenario, but it gives them a fieldable roster at least.
Alternatively it opens up the possibility of trading Verdugo to fill the infield hole.
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Post by chr31ter on Jan 17, 2023 13:03:11 GMT -5
Not really loving the "or elsewhere" part of this tweet.
At this point in time, "or elsewhere" shouldn't really apply to the Boston Red Sox. If you want him, go get him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 17, 2023 13:05:28 GMT -5
Duvall's OBP is horrible but that power is Renfroe-like and needed. I know he's a decent to good outfielder but dont know how good of a CF he is.
I guess Kiké is the SS unless they sign Andrus in which case Kiké would move back to CF and Verdugo becomes expandable.
Or maybe if they sign Andrus everybody sticks around with Duvall in CF and Kiké at 2b
My guess is the Sox want to hand Arroyo an everyday job but you can never bank on his health.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 17, 2023 13:12:56 GMT -5
His xwOBA and ISO dropped a LOT last season. The most likely explanation for that would be "he was 33 and is becoming bad at hitting." But maybe there's some other explanation for it...
ADD: I guess he started off very cold in April and May, then was hot in June/July, and played his last game on July 23rd before a wrist injury ended his season. Maybe just a cold stretch early in the year and he didn't have time to bring his overall numbers up to adequacy...
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 17, 2023 13:21:21 GMT -5
Zero memory of this
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Post by kwodes on Jan 17, 2023 13:21:53 GMT -5
Do we think it's a legitimate 2 yr deal? Or a chaim special: 1 yr with club option and decent buyout
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 17, 2023 13:24:48 GMT -5
This has to be 1 year + option. Would be weird otherwise. Not terrible. Not great. All depends on the contract.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 17, 2023 13:31:07 GMT -5
Let's maybe hold off until pen is on paper. Remember this piece of gold from beyond the monster?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 17, 2023 13:33:30 GMT -5
Duvall's solid. 2ish win guy the last few years. Best case scenario he had a weird off-season last year and got off to a slow start, they get the 2019-2021 version of him which is a solid 2.5 win player. Not big platoon splits and good outfield defensive metrics. Big time pull hitter too who might see a big doubles bump in Fenway.
Would still like to add a middle infielder as well. A lefty would be great but not sure a guy like that exists, so just sign Iglesias or Andrus.
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Post by jmei on Jan 17, 2023 13:37:03 GMT -5
I think of this more as an optionality-focused move than one that guarantees that Kiké will move to the infield. They needed a backup CF/RF anyways and Duvall isn't quite good enough at this point in his career where you want to pencil him into a starting spot.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,983 
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Post by jimoh on Jan 17, 2023 13:51:34 GMT -5
A Braves fan site says he "looked like" he didn't like/wasn't comfortable playing CF, and (more factually) that he hit worse while playing CF than when in a corner. Could be other factors involved, of course.
Career hitting as a CF in 71 games: .204.258.340.598
As LF in 544 games: .233.294.480.774
As RF in 96 games: .238.285.499.784
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 17, 2023 14:02:40 GMT -5
A Braves fan site says he "looked like" he didn't like/wasn't comfortable playing CF, and (more factually) that he hit worse while playing CF than when in a corner. Could be other factors involved, of course. Career hitting as a CF in 71 games: .204.258.340.598 As LF in 544 games: .233.294.480.774 As RF in 96 games: .238.285.499.784 I stopped playing baseball relatively early so maybe I just don't understand the mentality at all but it seems insane that the position you play in the field would have an effect on your performance at the plate. Who knows. |
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Post by levi on Jan 17, 2023 14:05:47 GMT -5
A Braves fan site says he "looked like" he didn't like/wasn't comfortable playing CF, and (more factually) that he hit worse while playing CF than when in a corner. Could be other factors involved, of course. Career hitting as a CF in 71 games: .204.258.340.598 As LF in 544 games: .233.294.480.774 As RF in 96 games: .238.285.499.784 I noticed this as well — career 106 wRC+ in RF (~385 PA) and 63 wRC+ in CF (~270 PA). |
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Post by manfred on Jan 17, 2023 14:26:50 GMT -5
A Braves fan site says he "looked like" he didn't like/wasn't comfortable playing CF, and (more factually) that he hit worse while playing CF than when in a corner. Could be other factors involved, of course. Career hitting as a CF in 71 games: .204.258.340.598 As LF in 544 games: .233.294.480.774 As RF in 96 games: .238.285.499.784 I stopped playing baseball relatively early so maybe I just don't understand the mentality at all but it seems insane that the position you play in the field would have an effect on your performance at the plate. Who knows. There are a lot of reasonable explanations. Personal discomfort. Having to dedicate more time to working on D (so less focus on batting). Fatigue if a position is more demanding. I don’t think it is that surprising. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 17, 2023 14:41:55 GMT -5
I think of this more as an optionality-focused move than one that guarantees that Kiké will move to the infield. They needed a backup CF/RF anyways and Duvall isn't quite good enough at this point in his career where you want to pencil him into a starting spot. In an ideal world no, but we’ve all been ready to pencil Andrus into a starting spot, and a lot of people have been ready to put Iglesias there, and you could argue he’s better than either. I mean he’s not a clearly worse player than say Hunter Renfroe. I think they could totally pencil him in as a starting outfielder. |
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Post by incandenza on Jan 17, 2023 14:42:41 GMT -5
A Braves fan site says he "looked like" he didn't like/wasn't comfortable playing CF, and (more factually) that he hit worse while playing CF than when in a corner. Could be other factors involved, of course. Career hitting as a CF in 71 games: .204.258.340.598 As LF in 544 games: .233.294.480.774 As RF in 96 games: .238.285.499.784 Some GIANT confounding variables there. The biggest one is that most of his PAs as a CFer came in 2022, and the rest came in 2021, whereas his best offensive seasons were 2019-2020. Maybe moving to CF is what caused his offense to decline, rather than, say, his getting older, but that seems like a huge and unfounded inference to me.
Furthermore, his defensive numbers in CF were quite good - better than they are in RF for his career by all of DRS/UZR/OAA. I suppose it's possible that playing in CF made him uncomfortable in a way that affected his offense but not his defense. But that'd be pretty weird.
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Post by kjkramer on Jan 17, 2023 14:46:06 GMT -5
Now let's go get Iglesias and ship Verdugo out of town. I have been wanting Duggie gone for a while and this is good timing with the control left.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jan 17, 2023 14:46:25 GMT -5
A Braves fan site says he "looked like" he didn't like/wasn't comfortable playing CF, and (more factually) that he hit worse while playing CF than when in a corner. Could be other factors involved, of course. Career hitting as a CF in 71 games: .204.258.340.598 As LF in 544 games: .233.294.480.774 As RF in 96 games: .238.285.499.784 Some GIANT confounding variables there. The biggest one is that most of his PAs as a CFer came in 2022, and the rest came in 2021, whereas his best offensive seasons were 2019-2020. Maybe moving to CF is what caused his offense to decline, rather than, say, his getting older, but that seems like a huge and unfounded inference to me.
Furthermore, his defensive numbers in CF were quite good - better than they are in RF for his career by all of DRS/UZR/OAA. I suppose it's possible that playing in CF made him uncomfortable in a way that affected his offense but not defense. But that'd be pretty weird.
As noted before, he had a wrist injury he was struggling with last season. I’d assume this was likely the cause of the poor offensive numbers, so I have a hard time seeing an offense-to-defense performance correlation. |
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Post by greenmonster on Jan 17, 2023 14:47:23 GMT -5
Am I reading this correctly....The Sox are in Heavy on Duval?
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,983
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Post by jimoh on Jan 17, 2023 15:08:45 GMT -5
Some GIANT confounding variables there. The biggest one is that most of his PAs as a CFer came in 2022, and the rest came in 2021, whereas his best offensive seasons were 2019-2020. Maybe moving to CF is what caused his offense to decline, rather than, say, his getting older, but that seems like a huge and unfounded inference to me.
Furthermore, his defensive numbers in CF were quite good - better than they are in RF for his career by all of DRS/UZR/OAA. I suppose it's possible that playing in CF made him uncomfortable in a way that affected his offense but not defense. But that'd be pretty weird.
As noted before, he had a wrist injury he was struggling with last season. I’d assume this was likely the cause of the poor offensive numbers, so I have a hard time seeing an offense-to-defense performance correlation. I could be wrong, but I think he hurt his wrist on July 23 and did not play after that, so the wrist did not affect his hitting last year. Was it bothering him before? I see no evidence of that, but haven't looked that hard. Also, in 2022 he hit .196 .265 .281 .546 in 43 games in CF, where he had played <30 games before (April 7-May 27) then .220 .256 .463 .719 in 11 games in LF, and .239 .300 .576 .876 in 28 games in RF (May 26, May 28-July 23) That looks like correlation, although of course it does not have to be causation. Lots of guys start the season cold. I can imagine many guys in their 30s would find CF harder. More running, different angles from what you've seen your whole life. Just being 32-33 and being asked to play a new, harder position could be stressful. I watched the video of the play on which he was injured, afraid it would be gruesome, but it was very casual. He ran for a fly that went foul and made it into the LF stands, and he braced himself with both hands as he got to the wall, not very hard, and then he needed surgery. |
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 17, 2023 15:11:37 GMT -5
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,983
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Post by jimoh on Jan 17, 2023 15:18:12 GMT -5
Duvall could on some days replace the LHH Casas, either directly by playing 1b (only 43 games in his career) or by playing LF with Toshiba at DH and Turner at 1b. Fits the whole "flexible DH" philosophy. (And not good news for Dalbec)
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 17, 2023 16:26:38 GMT -5
A Braves fan site says he "looked like" he didn't like/wasn't comfortable playing CF, and (more factually) that he hit worse while playing CF than when in a corner. Could be other factors involved, of course. Career hitting as a CF in 71 games: .204.258.340.598 As LF in 544 games: .233.294.480.774 As RF in 96 games: .238.285.499.784 I noticed this as well — career 106 wRC+ in RF (~385 PA) and 63 wRC+ in CF (~270 PA). People, people, this is meaningless. You're dealing with sample sizes that make this an almost useless exercise. There's a reason why the 544 games he's played in left closely match his overall numbers. That's the only portion of the breakdown that has enough data to provide anything predictive. |
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Post by levi on Jan 17, 2023 17:05:56 GMT -5
I noticed this as well — career 106 wRC+ in RF (~385 PA) and 63 wRC+ in CF (~270 PA). People, people, this is meaningless. You're dealing with sample sizes that make this an almost useless exercise. There's a reason why the 544 games he's played in left closely match his overall numbers. That's the only portion of the breakdown that has enough data to provide anything predictive. I’m not so sure about that. For comprehensive batting statistics like wRC+ (or wOBA), research suggests a sufficient sample size of ~350 PA to differentiate signal from noise. The sample from RF meets the threshold and the sample from CF isn’t far off. Of course there is no “magic” threshold where the sample becomes predictive, but I think a few hundred PA has at least *some* predictive power. library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/ |
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