redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 18, 2023 1:07:38 GMT -5
That’s the number of plays they *make*. They also have to sprint towards all the balls hit towards rf and lf. And run in on every stolen base attempt. And for many plays they make they run further than a rf or a lf. Right and left fielders are also moving on lots of plays they aren’t making. The difference in amount of running just isn’t enough that this is a plausible explanation to me. I'm not sure what's hard to follow. A CF has to move on a ball hit toward the leftfielder or the rightfielder. A rightfielder doesn't have to do much on a ball hit toward the leftfielder or vice versa. They have a lot less ground they need to cover and a lot less running they have to do. Have you never played in a baseball game or a softball game? The CF is moving all the time. They have to.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 18, 2023 1:26:45 GMT -5
It’s ok when Verdugo comes into camp athletic and spry af then Duvall can play RF
I will say this- I think a RF has a big workload on its plate too. They have to backup throws to 1B. I don’t think it’s meaningfully different. At least not to the point where it would crater somebody’s offense to play CF instead of RF.
LF can be the laziest slob out there on the field lol
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 18, 2023 7:24:49 GMT -5
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Post by levi on Jan 18, 2023 7:25:45 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Jan 18, 2023 7:51:38 GMT -5
About the right deal for a ~1 WAR guy.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 18, 2023 7:58:25 GMT -5
No option? I'm kind of surprised about that. Solid deal.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 18, 2023 8:31:12 GMT -5
Nice 1 year hole fill. Gives Rafaela time.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 18, 2023 8:47:54 GMT -5
Right and left fielders are also moving on lots of plays they aren’t making. The difference in amount of running just isn’t enough that this is a plausible explanation to me. I'm not sure what's hard to follow. A CF has to move on a ball hit toward the leftfielder or the rightfielder. A rightfielder doesn't have to do much on a ball hit toward the leftfielder or vice versa. They have a lot less ground they need to cover and a lot less running they have to do. Have you never played in a baseball game or a softball game? The CF is moving all the time. They have to. First of all, really rude for no reason. The left fielder moves on every ball hit to center, on every ball hit to the third baseman, on every throw to third or second. I understand the center fielder runs more, but having played outfield in both positions I never noticed a difference on my legs and if there is one is it really so much that it should impact a pro athlete at the plate? Especially when it’s not like they’re going from sprinting to hitting, you get lots of breaks in baseball. I could totally be wrong and it affects him, but the sample size on Duvall’s centerfield numbers is way too small to make this assumption, which on the surface is dubious to me. The fact that other baseball guys have said it is interesting, but this to me needs to be proven rather than just accepted. Lots of big dudes play center without a drop off in performance (Judge, Trout to name the most obvious examples).
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 18, 2023 8:53:34 GMT -5
About the right deal for a ~1 WAR guy. He’s been a 2.4 WAR/150 guy overall since 2019. Last year he was 0.9 in half a season, with his offensive numbers way down after a slow start to the year which he seemed to be recovering from. Totally possible he’s aging and declines a lot or he gets injured again, but 1.0 is a pessimistic projection for a healthy Duvall.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 18, 2023 8:58:29 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Jan 18, 2023 9:06:52 GMT -5
About the right deal for a ~1 WAR guy. He’s been a 2.4 WAR/150 guy overall since 2019. Last year he was 0.9 in half a season, with his offensive numbers way down after a slow start to the year which he seemed to be recovering from. Totally possible he’s aging and declines a lot or he gets injured again, but 1.0 is a pessimistic projection for a healthy Duvall. He's 34 years old, coming off a mediocre season and is a part-time player at this point in his career (due to middling performance and injuries). If anything, I'm being a little optimistic. Steamer projects him to be 0.3 WAR in 325 PAs and Derek Carty's THE BAT X projects him to be 0.6 WAR in 343 PAs.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jan 18, 2023 9:11:07 GMT -5
Duvall could easily be a 0-1.0 WAR player, but it's perfectly plausible that given a full year behind him after a wrist injury that he comes back strong. I'm not saying to go place your bets in Vegas on it, but he could end being a real get for the Sox. Would have loved to have seen a team option but this is fine.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 18, 2023 9:17:11 GMT -5
All speculation but with logic,
I say Duvall goes to RF
I really think this means Verdugo and something might go to the Marlins for Lopez, which then would lead to Pivetta getting traded for something.
That would clear money up and improve the rotation a little
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 18, 2023 9:19:02 GMT -5
He’s been a 2.4 WAR/150 guy overall since 2019. Last year he was 0.9 in half a season, with his offensive numbers way down after a slow start to the year which he seemed to be recovering from. Totally possible he’s aging and declines a lot or he gets injured again, but 1.0 is a pessimistic projection for a healthy Duvall. He's 34 years old, coming off a mediocre season and is a part-time player at this point in his career (due to middling performance and injuries). If anything, I'm being a little optimistic. Steamer projects him to be 0.3 WAR in 325 PAs and Derek Carty's THE BAT X projects him to be 0.6 WAR in 343 PAs. A mediocre season where he still would have been worth 80% more than 1 win had he played a full year. Those projections are based on him having negative defensive value and that seems really unlikely since he’s been a positive outfield defender his entire career and right now is expected to get the bulk of his time in center.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 18, 2023 9:21:51 GMT -5
Also not perfect but he has never had over 500 PAs in a season and less than 2.5 WAR…. That’s nice.
If we make him a full time RF I’m Saying a 1.5-3.0 WAR for him
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2023 9:35:20 GMT -5
He’s been a 2.4 WAR/150 guy overall since 2019. Last year he was 0.9 in half a season, with his offensive numbers way down after a slow start to the year which he seemed to be recovering from. Totally possible he’s aging and declines a lot or he gets injured again, but 1.0 is a pessimistic projection for a healthy Duvall. He's 34 years old, coming off a mediocre season and is a part-time player at this point in his career (due to middling performance and injuries). If anything, I'm being a little optimistic. Steamer projects him to be 0.3 WAR in 325 PAs and Derek Carty's THE BAT X projects him to be 0.6 WAR in 343 PAs. I suppose there's a universe where either Trevor Story is back at mid-season (moving Kiké back to OF) or Rafaela is ready for MLB in July - in which case Duvall just needs to be solid for 3 months.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 18, 2023 9:46:07 GMT -5
Duvall could easily be a 0-1.0 WAR player, but it's perfectly plausible that given a full year behind him after a wrist injury that he comes back strong. I'm not saying to go place your bets in Vegas on it, but he could end being a real get for the Sox. Would have loved to have seen a team option but this is fine. Basically we don't know whether Duvall will be mediocre or good. Just as we don't know whether Devers' OPS will be 850 or 950, whether Casas will be 700 or 880, whether Verdugo will be 690 or 820, whether Toshiba will be 700 or 850, whether the catcher position will be 600 or 700, whether Turner will be 700 or 800. But we needed someone like this. I'd say sign or trade for a shortstop and we're done.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 18, 2023 9:52:54 GMT -5
Does anyone have an explanation why redsoxpayroll has us at 221 and Fangraphs payroll has us at 215?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 18, 2023 9:54:28 GMT -5
This is a very easy contract to move at the deadline if we’re desperate to get under the LT or something along those lines.
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Post by benzinger on Jan 18, 2023 9:58:19 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Jan 18, 2023 10:00:19 GMT -5
I have a few feelings: 1) seems like a good pick up as of January 18, all things considered. Not too pricey, can put Kiké in the IF etc. 2) seems like a brutal signing if he is a starter as of, say November 1, 2022. Who had “hey, maybe Adam Duvall can rebound at 34?” In their wish list for this off-season? 3) The OF spaghetti toss continues. Duvall is a very-poor-man’s Renfroe. I get not signing guys to longer contracts under some circumstances, but when you are too “flexible,” you find that you cannot always make lateral moves, much less improvement.
I appreciate folks’ optimism, and I think there is a chance Duvall could have a Renfroe-esque year, but I also hate when people take part time stats, project them to full time and say “this is what he can do.” Generally, part-timers are getting optimal situations cherry picked for them. So their numbers will almost certainly *decline* over full seasons. The likelihood that Duvall is a 2-3 WAR player as has been suggested is exceedingly low. The market — which settled on $7 mill — would have to have been off by shocking amounts.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jan 18, 2023 10:09:06 GMT -5
I would have rather seen us target an upside guy in a trade at CF or a younger bounce back candidate like Herrera.
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Post by runner on Jan 18, 2023 10:10:15 GMT -5
At least it's a modest one year deal. I'm sure curly headed boyfriend will have a field day with the Sox signing another player to a one year deal this off-season.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Jan 18, 2023 10:11:23 GMT -5
I have a few feelings: 1) seems like a good pick up as of January 18, all things considered. Not too pricey, can put Kiké in the IF etc. 2) seems like a brutal signing if he is a starter as of, say November 1, 2022. Who had “hey, maybe Adam Duvall can rebound at 34?” In their wish list for this off-season? 3) The OF spaghetti toss continues. Duvall is a very-poor-man’s Renfroe. I get not signing guys to longer contracts under some circumstances, but when you are too “flexible,” you find that you cannot always make lateral moves, much less improvement. I appreciate folks’ optimism, and I think there is a chance Duvall could have a Renfroe-esque year, but I also hate when people take part time stats, project them to full time and say “this is what he can do.” Generally, part-timers are getting optimal situations cherry picked for them. So their numbers will almost certainly *decline* over full seasons. The likelihood that Duvall is a 2-3 WAR player as has been suggested is exceedingly low. The market — which settled on $7 mill — would have to have been off by shocking amounts. I would agree with this. I think Duvall can be a useful player in limited playing time but no one would've wanted him to he a starting outfielder candidate at the beginning of the offseason. This is pretty optimal post-Yoshida signing. His ability to play centerfield reasonable well is very helpful and necessary considering the lack of CF options. I'm hoping he's used in more of a part time capacity than playing everyday. I'd still want to find a legitimate shortstop because I think Kiké is best suited for centerfield.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 18, 2023 10:12:06 GMT -5
I would have rather seen us target an upside guy in a trade at CF I'm sure they have at some point. The trade market has been non-existent outside of Varsho and Murphy (not counting Teoscar, Toronto wasn't sending him to Bos)
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