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Red Sox Sign Adam Duvall (1 Year/$7 million)
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Aug 31, 2023 15:53:08 GMT -5
Gee, I like Duvall, but 2/30 and maybe a third year for a 35 year old with a career 100 wRC+ and a pretty rough health history? And on a team that already has three starting outfielders not counting Rafaela? Well… 3 left-handed OFs. Yoshida is really a DH. Duran — and I love him — could still implode. And Verdugo should be trade bait. I don’t think a full OF is a reason against it. I totally agree the risk is massive. I guess I’d just say that they should change the composition of the OF to include a regular power-hitting righty. The most obvious candidate is Duvall. I am fine with a different plan. I’m much less fine with Yoshida-Duran-Verdugo, which seems like a lot of groundouts and not many HRs… and a lot of vulnerability to lefty pitching. Agree with first post. Duvall will be 35, has been below average defensively this year and you already have Duran, Rafaella, Verdugo, Abreu. Yoshida as well but he's likely more of a DH going forward. I do agree it would be ideal to have a righty power hitter in LF but I don't think a 35 yr old Duvall is the right guy. I'd love to deal for Pete Alonso but not sure this team can handle another DH/1B type. The only righty power hitting outfielder on a crappy team that could be available is Luis Robert. He would be a great add given his age and contract as well. Those are the types of players the sox should be looking at. No more old vets on short term deals.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 31, 2023 17:01:21 GMT -5
Duvall: - Signed a 7mil/1yr deal for this season despite hitting 38 HRs in 2021. - Turns 35 in a few days. - Been passable but disappointing in CF defensively. (-3 OAA in 422 innings) - Had 2 red-hot streaks offensively but has struggled inbetween. - Has struggled to stay on the field in 4 of the past 5 seasons. (exception being shortened 2020 season) - Average career hitter (100wRC+) who ZiPs projects for 1.1 fWAR in 2024.
Let's not lose our collective minds just because he's on a hot streak right now.
If they trade Verdugo and give the RF job to Duvall/Abreu, I'd be alright with that. But anything past 20mil over 2 years (or 12/1) is downright crazy.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 2, 2023 17:32:31 GMT -5
Duvall: - Signed a 7mil/1yr deal for this season despite hitting 38 HRs in 2021. - Turns 35 in a few days. - Been passable but disappointing in CF defensively. (-3 OAA in 422 innings) - Had 2 red-hot streaks offensively but has struggled inbetween. - Has struggled to stay on the field in 4 of the past 5 seasons. (exception being shortened 2020 season) - Average career hitter (100wRC+) who ZiPs projects for 1.1 fWAR in 2024. Let's not lose our collective minds just because he's on a hot streak right now. If they trade Verdugo and give the RF job to Duvall/Abreu, I'd be alright with that. But anything past 20mil over 2 years (or 12/1) is downright crazy. Bloom does not give three year contracts to35 year olds, so do not worry..!
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 2, 2023 17:52:38 GMT -5
Duvall: - Signed a 7mil/1yr deal for this season despite hitting 38 HRs in 2021. - Turns 35 in a few days. - Been passable but disappointing in CF defensively. (-3 OAA in 422 innings) - Had 2 red-hot streaks offensively but has struggled inbetween. - Has struggled to stay on the field in 4 of the past 5 seasons. (exception being shortened 2020 season) - Average career hitter (100wRC+) who ZiPs projects for 1.1 fWAR in 2024. Let's not lose our collective minds just because he's on a hot streak right now. If they trade Verdugo and give the RF job to Duvall/Abreu, I'd be alright with that. But anything past 20mil over 2 years (or 12/1) is downright crazy. Keep it at one year but for a $$$ amount that is palatable to the player. Ditto for Turner. If we're going to go over the LTT in 2024, let's go heavy on one-year contracts that preserve flexibility for 2025 and beyond.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 3, 2023 19:42:59 GMT -5
Right, and I think Duvall would be a great fit next season for these reasons and because he could allow Yoshida more time at DH. The point is just that they don't need him (like, say, they needed and failed to get another outfielder in 2022). 2/30 just seems like a big overpay to me for a guy who helps but doesn't fit a glaring hole. I'd almost rather go 1/30, though that'd be kind of crazy. Fair. Where we differ is our perception of the hole. I view it as glaring. I am not sure Turner will be back, and I don’t trust Story. So the team is almost pure lefty. I do not see Turner returning! He will decline the option and take the money. The Red Sox NEED his DH spot for a Devers/Yoshida combo to improve their WORST IN THE MLB DEFENSE! (Turner has been fantastic, but improving the D is top priority!). Duvall is the biggest RH power bat on the team if Turner is gone.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 3, 2023 20:08:12 GMT -5
- Had 2 red-hot streaks offensively but has struggled inbetween. This is a bit of an oversimplification. He was awful from June 9 to July 4 (.152/.243/.258, 36% K rate, 1 HR) but from July 5 to August 20, the day before this recent torrid stretch, he was a not stellar but passable .232/.283/.463 with 6 HR (albeit 31% K rate). I'm not paying a ton for that but if he can do that between stretches of being a monster, I'd be OK with it for another year if we're comfortable with June being shaking rust off.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Sept 3, 2023 20:14:40 GMT -5
Fair. Where we differ is our perception of the hole. I view it as glaring. I am not sure Turner will be back, and I don’t trust Story. So the team is almost pure lefty. I do not see Turner returning! He will decline the option and take the money. The Red Sox NEED his DH spot for a Devers/Yoshida combo to improve their WORST IN THE MLB DEFENSE! (Turner has been fantastic, but improving the D is top priority!). Duvall is the biggest RH power bat on the team if Turner is gone. How can Turner decline the option and take the money? If he declines the option he gets no money? I think the most likely scenario is the Sox tear up the contract and work out a similar deal to this seasons contract, something palatable that takes his age into account. If his feet are better I don't see him falling of the table offensively. They're not going to move Devers or Yoshi to full time DH's and the jury is still out on whether Abreu and or Rafaela are ready. It doesn't help either one to be part timers. The question mark then becomes Duran. I think Refsnyder is let go, Duvall and Turner are signed to 1 year deals. Duvall becomes your Refsnyder deluxe, taking the short side platoon and spells the other 3 outfield positions as a rover. The offense will look very similar to this season with a full season of Story, Pedro and most likely Urias in the MI
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Sept 3, 2023 20:28:10 GMT -5
I do not see Turner returning! He will decline the option and take the money. The Red Sox NEED his DH spot for a Devers/Yoshida combo to improve their WORST IN THE MLB DEFENSE! (Turner has been fantastic, but improving the D is top priority!). Duvall is the biggest RH power bat on the team if Turner is gone. How can Turner decline the option and take the money? If he declines the option he gets no money? I think the most likely scenario is the Sox tear up the contract and work out a similar deal to this seasons contract, something palatable that takes his age into account. If his feet are better I don't see him falling of the table offensively. They're not going to move Devers or Yoshi to full time DH's and the jury is still out on whether Abreu and or Rafaela are ready. It doesn't help either one to be part timers. The question mark then becomes Duran. I think Refsnyder is let go, Duvall and Turner are signed to 1 year deals. Duvall becomes your Refsnyder deluxe, taking the short side platoon and spells the other 3 outfield positions as a rover. The offense will look very similar to this season with a full season of Story, Pedro and most likely Urias in the Yup, he gets 6.7 mil if he opts out of his 2024 contract. After the season he has had, he would be silly not to opt out as he would only need 7.7 mil in a 2024 contract to break even. He'll beat that. www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/justin-turner-8649/#:~:text=Current%20Contract,annual%20average%20salary%20of%20%2410%2C850%2C000.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 3, 2023 20:32:52 GMT -5
I do not see Turner returning! He will decline the option and take the money. The Red Sox NEED his DH spot for a Devers/Yoshida combo to improve their WORST IN THE MLB DEFENSE! (Turner has been fantastic, but improving the D is top priority!). Duvall is the biggest RH power bat on the team if Turner is gone. How can Turner decline the option and take the money? If he declines the option he gets no money? I think the most likely scenario is the Sox tear up the contract and work out a similar deal to this seasons contract, something palatable that takes his age into account. If his feet are better I don't see him falling off the table offensively. They're not going to move Devers or Yoshi to full time DH's and the jury is still out on whether Abreu and or Rafaela are ready. It doesn't help either one to be part timers. The question mark then becomes Duran. I think Refsnyder is let go, Duvall and Turner are signed to 1 year deals. Duvall becomes your Refsnyder deluxe, taking the short side platoon and spells the other 3 outfield positions as a rover. The offense will look very similar to this season with a full season of Story, Pedro and most likely Urias in the MI “Justin Turner signed a 2 year / $21,700,000 contract with the Boston Red Sox, including $21,700,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $10,850,000. In 2023, Turner will earn a base salary of $8,300,000, while carrying a total salary of $8,300,000. 2024 Player Option contains a $6.7M buyout.“ Edit:Oldfaithful2019 beat me to it
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Sept 3, 2023 23:20:24 GMT -5
Yeah, maybe I'm missunderstanding the contract language, but isn't the buy-out for the Sox, meaning if they don't want Turner for 2024, they have to "buy him out" of the established contract. Like if he had had a crappy 2023 the Sox could do the buy out so they wouldn't be on the hook for the full 2024 contact. Why would he automatically get the buy-out? if he desires to go on his own and turn down the player option? A buy out is protection for the team not a gift for a player who desires to go elsewhere for more money. I think I'm right, I don't think the 6.7 is paid to Turner unless the Sox choose to go a different direction.
For example if Turner chooses to go play for the Mets for 20mil a season (declining his player option to become a Free Agent) Then the Sox owe him nothing. He doesn't get 6.7 million plus 20million for 2024.
If the Sox say " We don't want Turner back" then Turner gets the 6.7 the Sox pay to get out of his current contract.
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Post by keninten on Sept 3, 2023 23:43:16 GMT -5
I understand it to be a player option for $13.4. But the Sox can buy that option out for $6.7.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 3, 2023 23:44:31 GMT -5
This is a bit of an oversimplification. He was awful from June 9 to July 4 (.152/.243/.258, 36% K rate, 1 HR) but from July 5 to August 20, the day before this recent torrid stretch, he was a not stellar but passable .232/.283/.463 with 6 HR (albeit 31% K rate). I'm not paying a ton for that but if he can do that between stretches of being a monster, I'd be OK with it for another year if we're comfortable with June being shaking rust off. Was a single bullet point and meant to be simple. .232/.283/.463 is a very poor line for a corner outfielder. Hunter Renfroe has a fairly close .237/.298/.425 line and he was just released. I'd also be fine with it if he's hot outside that stretch, but as you stated that came right after a much worse stretch. As stated, a 12/1 wouldn't be too crazy in my opinion. Are you arguing that he should be paid more?
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Sept 3, 2023 23:47:42 GMT -5
I understand it to be a player option for $13.4. But the Sox can buy that option out for $6.7. Yes meaning, Turner only gets the 6.7 if the Sox decline year two of the contract (Which they'd be dumb to do). If Turner decides to go elsewhere he gets nothing from the Sox.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 3, 2023 23:50:14 GMT -5
Yeah, maybe I'm missunderstanding the contract language, but isn't the buy-out for the Sox, meaning if they don't want Turner for 2024, they have to "buy him out" of the established contract. Like if he had had a crappy 2023 the Sox could do the buy out so they wouldn't be on the hook for the full 2024 contact. Why would he automatically get the buy-out? if he desires to go on his own and turn down the player option? A buy out is protection for the team not a gift for a player who desires to go elsewhere for more money. I think I'm right, I don't think the 6.7 is paid to Turner unless the Sox choose to go a different direction. For example if Turner chooses to go play for the Mets for 20mil a season (declining his player option to become a Free Agent) Then the Sox owe him nothing. He doesn't get 6.7 million plus 20million for 2024. If the Sox say " We don't want Turner back" then Turner gets the 6.7 the Sox pay to get out of his current contract. Nope he definitely gets the money if he opts out. The point of structuring the deal like this was to take advantage of some accounting rule that lets them spread some of his luxury tax hit on to the 2024 payroll even if he only plays in 2023. If you want to check the thread about his signing you should find reporting about this.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Sept 4, 2023 0:07:25 GMT -5
Yeah, maybe I'm missunderstanding the contract language, but isn't the buy-out for the Sox, meaning if they don't want Turner for 2024, they have to "buy him out" of the established contract. Like if he had had a crappy 2023 the Sox could do the buy out so they wouldn't be on the hook for the full 2024 contact. Why would he automatically get the buy-out? if he desires to go on his own and turn down the player option? A buy out is protection for the team not a gift for a player who desires to go elsewhere for more money. I think I'm right, I don't think the 6.7 is paid to Turner unless the Sox choose to go a different direction. For example if Turner chooses to go play for the Mets for 20mil a season (declining his player option to become a Free Agent) Then the Sox owe him nothing. He doesn't get 6.7 million plus 20million for 2024. If the Sox say " We don't want Turner back" then Turner gets the 6.7 the Sox pay to get out of his current contract. Nope he definitely gets the money if he opts out. The point of structuring the deal like this was to take advantage of some accounting rule that lets them spread some of his luxury tax hit on to the 2024 payroll even if he only plays in 2023. If you want to check the thread about his signing you should find reporting about this. It's not an Opt Out, it's a buy-out. I stand by my take on the contract language. The only way he gets the 6.7$ is if the Sox DECIDE they want to buy him out. He definitely doesnt "just get the money" if he wants to decline the player option and go take his great season to the open market. That would be just stupid for the Sox. It's a simple player option with a team buy out. No new accounting rule. the buy out is up to the Sox, not the player. Why on earth would the Sox take a luxury tax hit if Turner decides he doesn't want to play in Boston for 2024??? That's just silly.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Sept 4, 2023 0:24:42 GMT -5
Nope he definitely gets the money if he opts out. The point of structuring the deal like this was to take advantage of some accounting rule that lets them spread some of his luxury tax hit on to the 2024 payroll even if he only plays in 2023. If you want to check the thread about his signing you should find reporting about this. It's not an Opt Out, it's a buy-out. I stand by my take on the contract language. The only way he gets the 6.7$ is if the Sox DECIDE they want to buy him out. He definitely doesnt "just get the money" if he wants to decline the player option and go take his great season to the open market. That would be just stupid for the Sox. It's a simple player option with a team buy out. No new accounting rule. the buy out is up to the Sox, not the player. Why on earth would the Sox take a luxury tax hit if Turner decides he doesn't want to play in Boston for 2024??? That's just silly.Because it would've charged $15m to this year's luxury tax in a year they were trying to sneak under, and the ~$7m hit (with the PA escalators possibly factoring in?) to next year's tax is meaningless since they should spend over the tax. The option gave Turner some security in case he was injured or cratered, and it helped the Sox lower the tax for this year. Rosenthal and others reported this at the time, if you subtract the buy out the Red Sox would've got Turner for $8.3m this year, that's obviously not the going rate for a guy like Turner.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Sept 4, 2023 0:34:21 GMT -5
Let's defer to our Sox Prospect resident contract expert Chris Hatfield.. I think you guys are way over thinking this. A "buy out" is insurance for a team, a "Player Option or Opt Out" is insurance for the player.
if the player declines his option, he doesn't GET the buy-out.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 4, 2023 5:52:16 GMT -5
Without the contract in front of us, it's speculation, but my guess is that the language says that the Sox agree to buy him out of the contract if he declines the option. It was done for luxury tax accounting, per above.
Here's the tweet from Rosenthal that supports the comments above:
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 4, 2023 17:23:21 GMT -5
Let's defer to our Sox Prospect resident contract expert Chris Hatfield.. I think you guys are way over thinking this. A "buy out" is insurance for a team, a "Player Option or Opt Out" is insurance for the player. if the player declines his option, he doesn't GET the buy-out. You’re mistaken here, buyout may not be the right legal terminology but the “option” is the player’s choice between a one year contract at a previously-agreed-upon salary or the team buying out that remaining year at a previously-agreed-upon, significantly reduced price. Sometimes that price is $0, sometimes it isn’t. Edit: you said it yourself, it’s a player option. The Red Sox have no say in the matter. He gets the money if he opts out. Why would there be language in the contract that says “you get x amount of money if you opt out and we don’t resign you, but don’t get any of it if we do”? That makes much less sense than him just…getting the reported buyout.
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