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Red Sox Sign Adam Duvall (1 Year/$7 million)
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Post by incandenza on Jan 17, 2023 17:39:28 GMT -5
People, people, this is meaningless. You're dealing with sample sizes that make this an almost useless exercise. There's a reason why the 544 games he's played in left closely match his overall numbers. That's the only portion of the breakdown that has enough data to provide anything predictive. I’m not so sure about that. For comprehensive batting statistics like wRC+ (or wOBA), research suggests a sufficient sample size of ~350 PA to differentiate signal from noise. The sample from RF meets the threshold and the sample from CF isn’t far off. Of course there is no “magic” threshold where the sample becomes predictive, but I think a few hundred PA has at least *some* predictive power. library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/Can we back up and try to remember what the theory is here? It's that when Duvall is playing CF, he somehow becomes a much worse hitter than he is when playing RF or LF, even though he does well defensively in CF. That's a really weird theory. So the threshold for evidence to prove it ought to be quite high. If the sample size of PAs is *almost* statistically significant... well, I'm gonna say that evidence doesn't meet the threshold I'd be looking for. (And that's before even considering the confounding variables noted above.)
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 17, 2023 18:10:26 GMT -5
Duvall's OBP is horrible but that power is Renfroe-like and needed. I know he's a decent to good outfielder but dont know how good of a CF he is. I guess Kiké is the SS unless they sign Andrus in which case Kiké would move back to CF and Verdugo becomes expandable. Or maybe if they sign Andrus everybody sticks around with Duvall in CF and Kiké at 2b My guess is the Sox want to hand Arroyo an everyday job but you can never bank on his health. I hope the Red Sox sign Duvall and Andrus. That way you have the flexibility to have a full complement of starters while giving the regulars a day off per week, or you have a quality 9 for the inevitable injury.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 17, 2023 18:13:08 GMT -5
His xwOBA and ISO dropped a LOT last season. The most likely explanation for that would be "he was 33 and is becoming bad at hitting." But maybe there's some other explanation for it...
ADD: I guess he started off very cold in April and May, then was hot in June/July, and played his last game on July 23rd before a wrist injury ended his season. Maybe just a cold stretch early in the year and he didn't have time to bring his overall numbers up to adequacy...
Do not forget the strike/lock out caused a lot of slow starts as spring trading was almost nonexistent .
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 17, 2023 18:15:17 GMT -5
I’m not so sure about that. For comprehensive batting statistics like wRC+ (or wOBA), research suggests a sufficient sample size of ~350 PA to differentiate signal from noise. The sample from RF meets the threshold and the sample from CF isn’t far off. Of course there is no “magic” threshold where the sample becomes predictive, but I think a few hundred PA has at least *some* predictive power. library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/Can we back up and try to remember what the theory is here? It's that when Duvall is playing CF, he somehow becomes a much worse hitter than he is when playing RF or LF, even though he does well defensively in CF. That's a really weird theory. So the threshold for evidence to prove it ought to be quite high. If the sample size of PAs is *almost* statistically significant... well, I'm gonna say that evidence doesn't meet the threshold I'd be looking for. (And that's before even considering the confounding variables noted above.) This is not horseshoes or hand grenades. The sample is either statistically significant or it isn't. This one isn't.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jan 17, 2023 18:25:58 GMT -5
Duvall could on some days replace the LHH Casas, either directly by playing 1b (only 43 games in his career) or by playing LF with Toshiba at DH and Turner at 1b. Fits the whole "flexible DH" philosophy. (And not good news for Dalbec) Bingo, I just typed that on another site. Turner -1B Yoshida - DH Duvall - LF Hernandez - CF Arroyo - 2B Andrus/Iglesias - SS When Devers needs a day off Turner - 3B Casas - 1B Let’s make Cora’s job hard by making him find a place to play everyone as much as possible! It also builds in injury replacement.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Jan 17, 2023 18:51:43 GMT -5
Duvall could on some days replace the LHH Casas, either directly by playing 1b (only 43 games in his career) or by playing LF with Toshiba at DH and Turner at 1b. Fits the whole "flexible DH" philosophy. (And not good news for Dalbec) Bingo, I just typed that on another site. Turner -1B Yoshida - DH Duvall - LF Hernandez - CF Arroyo - 2B Andrus/Iglesias - SS When Devers needs a day off Turner - 3B Casas - 1B Let’s make Cora’s job hard by making him find a place to play everyone as much as possible! It also builds in injury replacement. Refsnyder can essentially accomplish the same thing. The big thing Duvall provides is solid centerfield defense which cannot be found anywhere else on the roster.
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Post by levi on Jan 17, 2023 18:52:45 GMT -5
Can we back up and try to remember what the theory is here? It's that when Duvall is playing CF, he somehow becomes a much worse hitter than he is when playing RF or LF, even though he does well defensively in CF. That's a really weird theory. So the threshold for evidence to prove it ought to be quite high. If the sample size of PAs is *almost* statistically significant... well, I'm gonna say that evidence doesn't meet the threshold I'd be looking for. (And that's before even considering the confounding variables noted above.) This is not horseshoes or hand grenades. The sample is either statistically significant or it isn't. This one isn't. The "threshold" mentioned above has nothing to do with statistical significance. The number of plate appearances is simply the point where the correlation between sample of interest and another sample of identical size is 0.7, the point at which ~50% of the variance can be explained. This has also been empirically shown to indicate stabilization in a given metric. The author of the method (which is, of course, not perfect) has an article where he says something directly contrary to your "horseshoes or hand grenades" comment: "There’s nothing magical about .70. Any line between “reliable” and “not reliable” has a bit of arbitrariness to it. The only thing that .70 has going for it is that it’s the point where the majority of the R-squared is accounted for by factors that are endogenous." Ultimately, the difference between Duvall's offensive metrics when he's in RF/LF vs CF *may* not be meaningful. There are likely other confounding factors at play (i.e., season, time of year, changing circumstances, etc.), but it's still noteworthy and shouldn't be completely dismissed. None of us can say with confidence whether 100/250/500/1000 PA is sufficient, just that more PA is better.
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Post by runner on Jan 17, 2023 18:55:56 GMT -5
Starting the year with Duvall gives off the same JBJ vibes in the outfield. Yeah he's a little better, but not by much.
On most teams Duvall is a platoon bat. Not great.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 17, 2023 19:11:12 GMT -5
This is not horseshoes or hand grenades. The sample is either statistically significant or it isn't. This one isn't. The "threshold" mentioned above has nothing to do with statistical significance. The number of plate appearances is simply the point where the correlation between sample of interest and another sample of identical size is 0.7, the point at which ~50% of the variance can be explained. This has also been empirically shown to indicate stabilization in a given metric. The author of the method (which is, of course, not perfect) has an article where he says something directly contrary to your "horseshoes or hand grenades" comment: "There’s nothing magical about .70. Any line between “reliable” and “not reliable” has a bit of arbitrariness to it. The only thing that .70 has going for it is that it’s the point where the majority of the R-squared is accounted for by factors that are endogenous." Ultimately, the difference between Duvall's offensive metrics when he's in RF/LF vs CF *may* not be meaningful. There are likely other confounding factors at play (i.e., season, time of year, changing circumstances, etc.), but it's still noteworthy and shouldn't be completely dismissed. None of us can say with confidence whether 100/250/500/1000 PA is sufficient, just that more PA is better. This is a great explanation of why we should lean heavily on our priors in a case like this. And my prior would be "the particular outfield position a player plays should have no bearing on how well they hit."
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jan 17, 2023 19:25:03 GMT -5
Starting the year with Duvall gives off the same JBJ vibes in the outfield. Yeah he's a little better, but not by much. On most teams Duvall is a platoon bat. Not great. Yeah, Jackie was my favorite player for his 2013-2020 Red Sox career. But last year he was toast. He is done as a hitter. Duval may not be an all star but he is not toast. He is just 2 yrs removed from 38 HR, gold glove season. RH power and outfield defense are are areas of need to round out this lineup. The Sox need a roster with 13 position players that can be mixed and matched without it weakening the lineup. Duval would be a perfect fit.
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Post by kwodes on Jan 17, 2023 19:45:35 GMT -5
The "threshold" mentioned above has nothing to do with statistical significance. The number of plate appearances is simply the point where the correlation between sample of interest and another sample of identical size is 0.7, the point at which ~50% of the variance can be explained. This has also been empirically shown to indicate stabilization in a given metric. The author of the method (which is, of course, not perfect) has an article where he says something directly contrary to your "horseshoes or hand grenades" comment: "There’s nothing magical about .70. Any line between “reliable” and “not reliable” has a bit of arbitrariness to it. The only thing that .70 has going for it is that it’s the point where the majority of the R-squared is accounted for by factors that are endogenous." Ultimately, the difference between Duvall's offensive metrics when he's in RF/LF vs CF *may* not be meaningful. There are likely other confounding factors at play (i.e., season, time of year, changing circumstances, etc.), but it's still noteworthy and shouldn't be completely dismissed. None of us can say with confidence whether 100/250/500/1000 PA is sufficient, just that more PA is better. This is a great explanation of why we should lean heavily on our priors in a case like this. And my prior would be "the particular outfield position a player plays should have no bearing on how well they hit." Let me preface this with I know it's not the same as the major league level, but I played baseball in college. I can tell you from experience (having pitched AND played multiple positions on defense) the only time I felt I was mentally impacted by a position change was if I was pitching or catching vs playing OF or IF. When I caught or pitched, the main focus was on run prevention as opposed to my ABs. Again, and obviously, not the same as professionals, but just some insight.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 17, 2023 19:55:40 GMT -5
Can we back up and try to remember what the theory is here? It's that when Duvall is playing CF, he somehow becomes a much worse hitter than he is when playing RF or LF, even though he does well defensively in CF. That's a really weird theory. So the threshold for evidence to prove it ought to be quite high. If the sample size of PAs is *almost* statistically significant... well, I'm gonna say that evidence doesn't meet the threshold I'd be looking for. (And that's before even considering the confounding variables noted above.) This is not horseshoes or hand grenades. The sample is either statistically significant or it isn't. This one isn't. I agree that Duvall's struggles in CF are likely noise, but 'statistical significance' is usually based on arbitrary round-numbered thresholds relating to a pre-determined t-distribution. This is not that case, and even in those cases, 'horseshoes and hand grenades' is more apt than the certainty you're implying. i.e. 95th percentile relevance isn't truly much greater than 94th percentile relevance. There are gradations among levels of certainty. The statistics/science community has attempted to reduce the use of these terms and tests in recent years due to the confusion they bring and their deceptive nature.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 17, 2023 20:08:03 GMT -5
I know it’s a small sample size, and I said above that there could be lots of factors making Duvall’s offense worse in CF last year, and I said that lots of guys have slow starts for no particular reason. But the claim that being asked to play cf could not affect a guy’s offense, a 33 year old guy’s offense, seems just wrong. It’s more running over a wider area. There are lots of stories of guys who like the corners better. Here’s one about Bryce Harper. They use him in cf in emergencies but don’t want to put him there regularly because it’s more stressful, and his offense is too important. www.inquirer.com/newsletters/phillies/phillies-bryce-harper-center-field-joe-girardi-20210421.html?outputType=amp
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 17, 2023 20:27:39 GMT -5
Just a local Braves reporter and a radio guy: “Braves OF Adam Duvall absolutely has shown a dramatic improvement offensively over the past several games, and these numbers have coincided with the arrival of Michael Harris II as the new everyday CF for the Braves.[…] Several factors may be contributing to Duvall’s resurgence with his bat, but 92.9 the Games Braves reporter Grant McCauley told the Midday Show with Andy & Randy, that Duval’s switch to his more natural positon of left field certainly didn’t hurt. “He’s a bigger corner OF type, and you asked him to go out and play CF out of necessity” explained McCauley when asked by Randy if the switch back to LF has helped Duvall settle in at the plate. Grant also went on to say, “He can go get comfortable knowing I’m going to LF, and let him concentrate a little more on his hitting”” www.audacy.com/929thegame/sports/atlanta-braves/adam-duvall-is-back-playing-lf-and-his-bat-likes-the-change
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 17, 2023 20:37:38 GMT -5
Anecdotally speaking I remember my favorite player as a kid, Carl Yastrzemski having an all-star season in 1982 batting over .300 on pace for 20 plus HRs and 80 plus RBIs while maintaining an excellent BB/K....doing this as a guy about to turn 43 years old!
So the season got into August and the Sox CF situation that was a Rick Miller/Reid Nichols platoon (two guys much better suited to be 4th outfielders) turned into a situation (that I don't remember) where Yaz wound up being pressed into service as a CF. A 43 year old CF.
Yaz had been DHing regularly since crashing into the wall on Aug 30th, 1980 (I remember that date because the following day was the first game I ever saw at Fenway Park).
Maybe it's a coincidence, maybe it's not, but he went into a huge slump that coincided with his action in CF. He was never the same again that season and he tailed off and wound up with just merely a really good season in which he hat hit .275 with 16 HRs and 72 RBIs.
I remember reading that he said that playing CF just destroyed his legs and was the reason why he fell off from over .300 to .275.
So maybe the strain of playing CF affected Duvall offensively where it sapped the strength out of his legs so perhaps his base fro his hitting position simply wasn't as strong when he played CF rather than the corner.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 17, 2023 20:51:39 GMT -5
Man, a guy who hits 38 jax and still puts up only a 102 OPS-plus and 103 wRC-plus, as Duvall did in 2021, has to be pretty bad at that not-making-an-out thing. And he was - .281 OBP, in line with his career .289. He had 174 K's.
He did put up 2.7 FG WAR and 3.1 B-Ref WAR. But I envision major vitriol during game threads following his ABs in 2023.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 17, 2023 20:58:10 GMT -5
Centerfielders are expected to make 75 more plays per year than left or right fielders. Less than half of a play per game. I'm having a really hard time believing that should impact their offense.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 17, 2023 21:01:14 GMT -5
Anecdotally speaking I remember my favorite player as a kid, Carl Yastrzemski having an all-star season in 1982 batting over .300 on pace for 20 plus HRs and 80 plus RBIs while maintaining an excellent BB/K....doing this as a guy about to turn 43 years old! So the season got into August and the Sox CF situation that was a Rick Miller/Reid Nichols platoon (two guys much better suited to be 4th outfielders) turned into a situation (that I don't remember) where Yaz wound up being pressed into service as a CF. A 43 year old CF. Yaz had been DHing regularly since crashing into the wall on Aug 30th, 1980 (I remember that date because the following day was the first game I ever saw at Fenway Park). Maybe it's a coincidence, maybe it's not, but he went into a huge slump that coincided with his action in CF. He was never the same again that season and he tailed off and wound up with just merely a really good season in which he hat hit .275 with 16 HRs and 72 RBIs. I remember reading that he said that playing CF just destroyed his legs and was the reason why he fell off from over .300 to .275. So maybe the strain of playing CF affected Duvall offensively where it sapped the strength out of his legs so perhaps his base fro his hitting position simply wasn't as strong when he played CF rather than the corner. Not trying to hijack, but Yaz had a massive falloff in 1983 too - .840 OPS in the first half and .717 in the second half. I could have sworn that they stuck in CF that year, too, but B-Ref shows he played only one game in the OF. That was in LF on the final day of the season. I loved the guy and can still sit here into the wee hours on a weekend night watching Yaz footage on Youtube. To pull Duvall into this post, I'll note that Yaz hit 452 jax with a lifetime K% of 10. Duvall's is nearly three times as high. Times have changed and not for the better in that regard.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 17, 2023 21:05:30 GMT -5
Centerfielders are expected to make 75 more plays per year than left or right fielders. Less than half of a play per game. I'm having a really hard time believing that should impact their offense. That’s the number of plays they *make*. They also have to sprint towards all the balls hit towards rf and lf. And run in on every stolen base attempt. And for many plays they make they run further than a rf or a lf.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 17, 2023 21:09:37 GMT -5
Anecdotally speaking I remember my favorite player as a kid, Carl Yastrzemski having an all-star season in 1982 batting over .300 on pace for 20 plus HRs and 80 plus RBIs while maintaining an excellent BB/K....doing this as a guy about to turn 43 years old! So the season got into August and the Sox CF situation that was a Rick Miller/Reid Nichols platoon (two guys much better suited to be 4th outfielders) turned into a situation (that I don't remember) where Yaz wound up being pressed into service as a CF. A 43 year old CF. Yaz had been DHing regularly since crashing into the wall on Aug 30th, 1980 (I remember that date because the following day was the first game I ever saw at Fenway Park). Maybe it's a coincidence, maybe it's not, but he went into a huge slump that coincided with his action in CF. He was never the same again that season and he tailed off and wound up with just merely a really good season in which he hat hit .275 with 16 HRs and 72 RBIs. I remember reading that he said that playing CF just destroyed his legs and was the reason why he fell off from over .300 to .275. So maybe the strain of playing CF affected Duvall offensively where it sapped the strength out of his legs so perhaps his base fro his hitting position simply wasn't as strong when he played CF rather than the corner. Not trying to hijack, but Yaz had a massive falloff in 1983 too - .840 OPS in the first half and .717 in the second half. I could have sworn that they stuck in CF that year, too, but B-Ref shows he played only one game in the OF. That was in LF on the final day of the season. I loved the guy and can still sit here into the wee hours on a weekend night watching Yaz footage on Youtube. To pull Duvall into this post, I'll note that Yaz hit 452 jax with a lifetime K% of 10. Duvall's is nearly three times as high. Times have changed and not for the better in that regard. Yaz said that in 1983 his interest waned as the Red Sox fell out of the pennant race. They got off to a strong start, but then Coup Leroux happened in June that year and the Sox started to slide. After the all-star game Yaz said his concentration was off, that his focus began to drift as they fell far out of the race. In 1982 the Sox were in the pennant race for most of the season, finishing just 6 games off the post after actually building a 5 game lead around May or June that year before Milwaukee and Baltimore passed them. In 1983 the Sox fell off to the familiar record that screams mediocre Red Sox team, 78-84. At one point before the team fell off he was thinking of playing in 1984, but when they fell off, his desire left him and he decided to call it quits as he didn't think the Sox would be good enough to make up the 20 games out they would finish out of 1st place. In a way he was right as they finished 18 games out in 1984 and 18.5 games out in 1985 but the team was improving on the field, but it took until 1986 to gel and Yaz would have been too old for that.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 17, 2023 21:34:14 GMT -5
Centerfielders are expected to make 75 more plays per year than left or right fielders. Less than half of a play per game. I'm having a really hard time believing that should impact their offense. Nah, CFs are more involved than that. They are in a position where they have to be able to back up RF or LF so they're involved in all plays that are in left center, center or right center and at Fenway they have to back up even when a ball hits the monster or rattles around the right field corner at a weird angle, so they're way more involved in more than the 75 extra plays we're they get the putout and for older players I think it can sap their legs strength which I think is needed when generating offense from your stance. The LF doesn't have to do that when a ball is hit to RF and vice versa. Carlton Fisk used to run down the 1b line to back up a bunch of plays, realized that it took so much out of his legs it wasn't worth it, and stopped doing it because it wasn't worth that maybe one time where it would matter if he did it...and it probably extended his career. I absolutely believe that playing CF can take a toll on a player offensively. Did that actually happen in Duvall's case? I don't know. We're talking a small sample size. My feeling is that playing CF isn't the best thing for him. Younger legs are better at SS and in CF in my opinion. I think that Mookie was helped out by the presence of JBJ when he was with the Sox and then eventually Bellinger. Ideally, Kiké would stay in CF and Duvall would be the RF, but given where the Sox are until they get a SS, Kiké is penciled into 2b and Duvall into CF. I would think that eventually the Sox sign Andrus or give Iglesias another tour of duty even if he isn't what Andrus is defensively. The thing that complicates stuff for me when evaluating Duvall's year last year was that he was injured and that had to effect his numbers. Obviously he was healthier in 2021 and he produced. I would like to see them get Duvall, but I do not look forward to an OBP of .290. I wouldn't prefer him over Verdugo offensively, but given how they're built right now, very lefty and very little power in the lineup, especially from the right side, they really could use Duvall.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 17, 2023 23:51:35 GMT -5
Man, a guy who hits 38 jax and still puts up only a 102 OPS-plus and 103 wRC-plus, as Duvall did in 2021, has to be pretty bad at that not-making-an-out thing. And he was - .281 OBP, in line with his career .289. He had 174 K's. He did put up 2.7 FG WAR and 3.1 B-Ref WAR. But I envision major vitriol during game threads following his ABs in 2023. ^This.
I hope this is all smoke and no fire. Signing a guy on the back-9 of his career who has never sniffed a 3 fWAR season just to fill a need on a middling team is just depressing. There's a statistically significant probability that Duvall has simply fallen off the age cliff, like many before him have -- and a season-ending wrist injury at 33 doesn't really bode well for a late-career renaissance.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 18, 2023 0:00:23 GMT -5
March/April: 84 PA’s .197/.262/.303 May: 102 PA’s .185/.255/.239 June: 99 PA’s .231/.293/.571 (8 bombs) July: 30 PA’s .286/.333/.643 (and then season cut short)
Doesn’t look like a cliff to me. Looks like a slow start followed by a season-ending injury when he was an inferno (before he could work his numbers back up)
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 18, 2023 0:07:57 GMT -5
Man, a guy who hits 38 jax and still puts up only a 102 OPS-plus and 103 wRC-plus, as Duvall did in 2021, has to be pretty bad at that not-making-an-out thing. And he was - .281 OBP, in line with his career .289. He had 174 K's. He did put up 2.7 FG WAR and 3.1 B-Ref WAR. But I envision major vitriol during game threads following his ABs in 2023. ^This.
I hope this is all smoke and no fire. Signing a guy on the back-9 of his career who has never sniffed a 3 fWAR season just to fill a need on a middling team is just depressing. There's a statistically significant probability that Duvall has simply fallen off the age cliff, like many before him have -- and a season-ending wrist injury at 33 doesn't really bode well for a late-career renaissance.
By bWAR he’s had a 3 win year and he had a 2.7 fWAR season in 2021, rate wise 2020 was close too. “Never sniffed” is an exaggeration.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 18, 2023 0:14:05 GMT -5
Centerfielders are expected to make 75 more plays per year than left or right fielders. Less than half of a play per game. I'm having a really hard time believing that should impact their offense. That’s the number of plays they *make*. They also have to sprint towards all the balls hit towards rf and lf. And run in on every stolen base attempt. And for many plays they make they run further than a rf or a lf. Right and left fielders are also moving on lots of plays they aren’t making. The difference in amount of running just isn’t enough that this is a plausible explanation to me.
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