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Red Sox Sign Adam Duvall (1 Year/$7 million)
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jan 18, 2023 10:19:54 GMT -5
I would have rather seen us target an upside guy in a trade at CF I'm sure they have at some point. The trade market has been non-existent outside of Varsho and Murphy (not counting Teoscar, Toronto wasn't sending him to Bos) It's been a weird offseason for sure. I'd love to have landed Margot from the Rays instead. Seems like he is and was the perfect Bloom guy.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 18, 2023 10:21:45 GMT -5
He’s been a 2.4 WAR/150 guy overall since 2019. Last year he was 0.9 in half a season, with his offensive numbers way down after a slow start to the year which he seemed to be recovering from. Totally possible he’s aging and declines a lot or he gets injured again, but 1.0 is a pessimistic projection for a healthy Duvall. He's 34 years old, coming off a mediocre season and is a part-time player at this point in his career (due to middling performance and injuries). If anything, I'm being a little optimistic. Steamer projects him to be 0.3 WAR in 325 PAs and Derek Carty's THE BAT X projects him to be 0.6 WAR in 343 PAs. I was thinking that this move could potentially facilitate a Verdugo trade since they seemed rather redundant and that they really do need Kiké's glove out there to help make up for some of the defensive deficiencies between left and right and you just spent some money on a fly ball pitcher like Kluber. With that said, the above comment has me thinking it's more than likely he's a super 4OFer at this point in time.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jan 18, 2023 10:24:26 GMT -5
All in all, this still feels like yet another step in the K Mart blue light special offseason.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Jan 18, 2023 10:26:12 GMT -5
I'm sure they have at some point. The trade market has been non-existent outside of Varsho and Murphy (not counting Teoscar, Toronto wasn't sending him to Bos) It's been a weird offseason for sure. I'd love to have landed Margot from the Rays instead. Seems like he is and was the perfect Bloom guy. Feels like there were a lot of potential fits in the division for the Sox to target this offseason, but nobody is going to want to trade to the Red Sox in the AL East right now unfortunately. Margot, Walls, Biggio, TOR catchers, etc.. Most of these wouldn’t have been earth shattering, but still more fun that what we’ll likely end up with.
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Post by benzinger on Jan 18, 2023 10:33:31 GMT -5
All in all, this still feels like yet another step in the K Mart blue light special offseason. When every guy you sign is a case of “maybe he can rebound and put up good numbers”, you know things haven’t gone the way you modeled them to go.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 18, 2023 10:35:47 GMT -5
I have a few feelings: 1) seems like a good pick up as of January 18, all things considered. Not too pricey, can put Kiké in the IF etc. 2) seems like a brutal signing if he is a starter as of, say November 1, 2022. Who had “hey, maybe Adam Duvall can rebound at 34?” In their wish list for this off-season? 3) The OF spaghetti toss continues. Duvall is a very-poor-man’s Renfroe. I get not signing guys to longer contracts under some circumstances, but when you are too “flexible,” you find that you cannot always make lateral moves, much less improvement. I appreciate folks’ optimism, and I think there is a chance Duvall could have a Renfroe-esque year, but I also hate when people take part time stats, project them to full time and say “this is what he can do.” Generally, part-timers are getting optimal situations cherry picked for them. So their numbers will almost certainly *decline* over full seasons. The likelihood that Duvall is a 2-3 WAR player as has been suggested is exceedingly low. The market — which settled on $7 mill — would have to have been off by shocking amounts. I agree with most of this, but on the part-time thing: Duvall put up a 2.5-3 WAR season in 2021 as essentially a full-time player. Then he was playing mostly full-time in 2022 and was on pace for 1.5+ WAR despite a slow start until he got injured. It's not like he's a platoon guy who's suddenly being asked to start.
And on top of that, I don't know that he'll be asked to play full-time this season. Especially if they add another middle infielder, he wouldn't need to play OF every day.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 18, 2023 10:37:36 GMT -5
This is in keeping with comments made on one of the recent podcasts. It's about defense as much as offense. That's what Duvall brings with his glove which is at least as valuable as his bat. That does seem to be where the FO sees the game going this season.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 18, 2023 10:38:40 GMT -5
All in all, this still feels like yet another step in the K Mart blue light special offseason. You're referring to the offseason in which they signed a $90 million outfielder and a $32 million closer and extended Devers on one of the 10 biggest contracts in baseball history?
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Jan 18, 2023 10:46:18 GMT -5
This is in keeping with comments made on one of the recent podcasts. It's about defense as much as offense. That's what Duvall brings with his glove which is at least as valuable as his bat. That does seem to be where the FO sees the game going this season. I think it’s less about where the game is going and more about the cost of defense being less expensive than offense, and having to adhere to a strict budget.
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Post by benzinger on Jan 18, 2023 10:57:34 GMT -5
All in all, this still feels like yet another step in the K Mart blue light special offseason. You're referring to the offseason in which they signed a $90 million outfielder and a $32 million closer and extended Devers on one of the 10 biggest contracts in baseball history? He’s right. They’ve signed a bunch of reclamation projects and former all-stars in the hopes that they can re-capture their former magic. “Toshiba” is a lottery ticket. Nobody knows what he is. It feels like thrift shopping, yes. Devers is an outlier since they actually retained some of their homegrown talent for once.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 18, 2023 11:01:44 GMT -5
They've already shelled out hundreds of millions this year so "strict" seems to largely be a matter of perception. We all need to travel back in time, before the shift became a thing. This is going to be a very different game. Fly ball pitchers gain in value, that's if MLB's version of the baseball is in keeping with the stated desire to keep more of those in the ballpark. Groundball pitchers will have to deal with many more of those pitches finding gaps, so they'll lose some of their value. Feel free to critique this idea. It's my own understanding of what's gone down.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 18, 2023 11:01:57 GMT -5
I have a few feelings: 1) seems like a good pick up as of January 18, all things considered. Not too pricey, can put Kiké in the IF etc. 2) seems like a brutal signing if he is a starter as of, say November 1, 2022. Who had “hey, maybe Adam Duvall can rebound at 34?” In their wish list for this off-season? 3) The OF spaghetti toss continues. Duvall is a very-poor-man’s Renfroe. I get not signing guys to longer contracts under some circumstances, but when you are too “flexible,” you find that you cannot always make lateral moves, much less improvement. I appreciate folks’ optimism, and I think there is a chance Duvall could have a Renfroe-esque year, but I also hate when people take part time stats, project them to full time and say “this is what he can do.” Generally, part-timers are getting optimal situations cherry picked for them. So their numbers will almost certainly *decline* over full seasons. The likelihood that Duvall is a 2-3 WAR player as has been suggested is exceedingly low. The market — which settled on $7 mill — would have to have been off by shocking amounts. FWIW Duvall has been better on a rate basis than Renfroe overall since 2019. If you want to look more recently just 2021-2022, Renfroe is at 2.55 WAR/150 and Duvall is at 2.32/150. Obviously Duvall's older so that factors in, and I'm nit picking your wording here, but I don't think it's fair to call him a very-poor man's version when he's been essentially equally good. He's also not a part time player. Since 2016 the only season he wasn't a full time MLB starter was in 2019, and once he came up from AAA he did play every day then too, so the optimal situations thing doesn't hold up him for him at all.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 18, 2023 11:14:55 GMT -5
My question marks on Duvall are:
- Age, started really slow offensively last year can he avoid that - Recovery from his wrist injury, especially at his age - Centerfield defense over the entire season, he's been really good there but the sample size is pretty small so does that hold up
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 18, 2023 11:15:37 GMT -5
They've already shelled out hundreds of millions this year so "strict" seems to largely be a matter of perception. We all need to travel back in time, before the shift became a thing. This is going to be a very different game. Fly ball pitchers gain in value, that's if MLB's version of the baseball is in keeping with the stated desire to keep more of those in the ballpark. Groundball pitchers will have to deal with many more of those pitches finding gaps, so they'll lose some of their value. Feel free to critique this idea. It's my own understanding of what's gone down. Norm is right. The game is going to be quite different this year with no shift. Story at 2nd would have been even more important. Speedy left-handed hitters are especially going to have career years. His point about flyball pitchers is right on. But if you don't have a good defensive outfield, it won't matter. Very pleased on the Duvall signing. I see him in right field eventually. Kiki defense in center will become even more important. An outfield of Verdugo, Kiki, and Duvall from left to right will be above average. It won't compare to the Beni, Jackie, Mookie outfield, but it will be fine. I hope Toshiba plays left only in Fenway and only for about 30 to 40 games. He will be DHing a lot I would guess along with Turner.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jan 18, 2023 11:22:57 GMT -5
I mean, dude's a career .289 OBP hitter, I'm sure bringing JBJ back would've been cheaper.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 18, 2023 11:29:45 GMT -5
I really hope Greg Allen gets a roster spot and is stealing lots of starts from Duvall vs RHP.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 18, 2023 11:37:49 GMT -5
All in all, this still feels like yet another step in the K Mart blue light special offseason. You're referring to the offseason in which they signed a $90 million outfielder and a $32 million closer and extended Devers on one of the 10 biggest contracts in baseball history? While still spending less than they did the year prior.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 18, 2023 11:45:09 GMT -5
I would have rather seen us target an upside guy in a trade at CF or a younger bounce back candidate like Herrera. Or just leave the OF as is with at least a plus defensive CF in Hernandez to offset the fringy corners and a decent RH 4th OF in Refsnyder and see what Duran can do at his natural position of 2B and Arroyo at SS.
It's a Three Stooges OF defense if Duvall is a regular in CF as a 34 yo coming off a serious wrist injury. You also move Hernandez off of the position he's excelled at the last two seasons. (But don't you remember when AC was pumping his tires at 2B in Ft. Myers? Yes, I remember... and they promptly moved him to CF.)
Duvall is a band-aid on broken leg if he's meant to be a full-timer. I'd take Refsnyder over him in a heartbeat for the same role. It appears that FG would too -- Duvall 0.4 proj. WAR in 343 PA; Refsnyder 1.0 proj. WAR in 301 PA.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jan 18, 2023 11:47:37 GMT -5
I really hope Greg Allen gets a roster spot and is stealing lots of starts from Duvall vs RHP. If the Sox are all in with Kiki at SS, then this is a must I think. A 40 man spot will be needed, also need one for Duval. I question the need for Ryfsnyder at this point.
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Post by worldbfree on Jan 18, 2023 11:49:41 GMT -5
34 years old and coming off wrist surgery. What could go wrong?
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 18, 2023 11:51:26 GMT -5
You're referring to the offseason in which they signed a $90 million outfielder and a $32 million closer and extended Devers on one of the 10 biggest contracts in baseball history? While still spending less than they did the year prior. We still have about a month before pitchers and catchers report and still at least one hole in the MI that they are almost assured to fill since I'm not buying that Hernandez is going to be the everyday SS. They're going to be give or take about 5 million less in payroll than they were last year on opening day from what I can tell. Not really sure what you expected, seems likely to me that they want to stay under the luxury tax so yes they were pretty likely to be spending less than they did the prior year either way.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 18, 2023 11:53:44 GMT -5
All in all, this still feels like yet another step in the K Mart blue light special offseason. I think someone posted a tweet by Red Sox stats earlier that said something to the effect of "The Red Sox went into the off-season with declared needs of a frontline starter, a right fielder, a shortstop and a catcher. Instead they got an unknown from Japan and a bunch of senior citizens." Everyone may stay healthy, discover the fountain of youth and play beyond their projections - which would be a unicorn event that I would embrace with both arms and legs. But that sentiment above is where I'm am at this point. This is not a team created to win the division. It is a team created to hopefully hold together and get the last Wild Card spot if everything breaks right. That seems to defy the pledge of "fielding a contending team." Outcome to be determined.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 18, 2023 11:59:05 GMT -5
They've already shelled out hundreds of millions this year so "strict" seems to largely be a matter of perception. We all need to travel back in time, before the shift became a thing. This is going to be a very different game. Fly ball pitchers gain in value, that's if MLB's version of the baseball is in keeping with the stated desire to keep more of those in the ballpark. Groundball pitchers will have to deal with many more of those pitches finding gaps, so they'll lose some of their value. Feel free to critique this idea. It's my own understanding of what's gone down. I'm genuinely worried that it's going to look very strange and less watchable with the outsized bases, a pitch clock, and limits on throwing to hold runners. I can see a situation where so many games are decided by small ball at the end that it becomes maddening.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 18, 2023 12:02:52 GMT -5
I really hope Greg Allen gets a roster spot and is stealing lots of starts from Duvall vs RHP. If the Sox are all in with Kiki at SS, then this is a must I think. A 40 man spot will be needed, also need one for Duval. I question the need for Ryfsnyder at this point. If signing Duvall results in moving Refsnyder, I'm going to question the need for Chaim.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 18, 2023 12:05:36 GMT -5
If the Sox are all in with Kiki at SS, then this is a must I think. A 40 man spot will be needed, also need one for Duval. I question the need for Ryfsnyder at this point. If signing Duvall results in moving Refsnyder, I'm going to question the need for Chaim. Potentially losing a career journeyman in Refsynder is where you draw the line on if Chaim should be running the Sox or not? I don't think Duvall is going to mean Refsnyder is gone anyway but seems like a strange place to draw the line here.
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