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2023 SoxProspects Ranking Updates
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 1, 2023 19:57:56 GMT -5
When can we expect the June update? Monday or Tuesday
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Post by bosoxnation on Jun 1, 2023 21:16:29 GMT -5
Brainer and Blaze 🚀
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 2, 2023 19:59:55 GMT -5
I say this with sadness but Mata has earned a big drop and I expect to see one in the next set of rankings. He was very much on my radar before his TJ, during his recovery and during his impressive return last year. But 27 BBs and 26 K's in 25.2 IP is downright ghoulish. He's also hurt again.
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Post by rhswanzey on Jun 4, 2023 10:14:11 GMT -5
I think we might see Roman Anthony in that spot come Monday.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 5, 2023 14:37:45 GMT -5
June Rankings are out!
Notable updates Roman Anthony up from 9 to 6 Bryan Mata down from 6 to 9 Enmanuel Valdez from 13 to 10 Wilyer Abreu from 20 to 13 Brainer Bonaci from 25 to 17, back to roughly where he was prior to spring training Matthew Lugo from 12 to 24 Cutter Coffey from 21 to 29 Dalton Rogers from 37 to 30 Christian Koss from 34 to 38 CJ Liu from 58 to 39 Bradley Blalock from NR to 43 Tyler McDonough from 31 to 48 Isaac Coffey from NR to 51 Grant Gambrell from NR to 52 Jose Ramirez from NR to 54 Oddanier Mosqueda from 45 to 57
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Post by incandenza on Jun 5, 2023 14:44:10 GMT -5
Rafaela still ahead of Yorke, which is hard for me to square with the performances and with what was said about Rafaela on the latest podcast, though I guess he's been hitting a little better lately at least. Valdez into the top 10 surprises me some too.
ADD: Now as I'm thinking about it, the tone on Rafaela might have sounded especially negative to me because Chris and Ian were trying to correct for some of the (over)hype. But if you weren't that hyped about Rafaela in the first place...
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 6, 2023 14:55:51 GMT -5
Here's the thing.
Yorke HAS to hit. Arguably has to be a plus hitter. And while the slash line is solid, his in-zone whiff rate (among the highest in the system believe it or not) and the accompanying reports indicate some issues below the surface that I, at least, worry about moving up.
Rafaela, OTOH, brings defense and speed to the table. How much does he need to hit to be, say, Harrison Bader?
I think it's close and there's a big gap between them and Bleis. I wouldn't quibble with preferring Yorke (James does). Just saying the argument for Rafaela at 3. Honestly, if Anthony starts lifting the ball he probably passes both.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 6, 2023 16:14:44 GMT -5
Here's the thing. Yorke HAS to hit. Arguably has to be a plus hitter. And while the slash line is solid, his in-zone whiff rate (among the highest in the system believe it or not) and the accompanying reports indicate some issues below the surface that I, at least, worry about moving up. Rafaela, OTOH, brings defense and speed to the table. How much does he need to hit to be, say, Harrison Bader? I think it's close and there's a big gap between them and Bleis. I wouldn't quibble with preferring Yorke (James does). Just saying the argument for Rafaela at 3. Honestly, if Anthony starts lifting the ball he probably passes both. Interesting. I see the perspective. My thinking is that Rafaela does actually have to hit a little bit too - he can't just be the 2021-2023 version of JBJ to stick in the majors. If he could manage Harrison Bader's career 98 wRC+ that would be phenomenal, but I'm not so sure that he can. And I would give Yorke better odds of being a plus hitter; even if has issues under the hood, he's still VERY young for his level and has lots of time to improve.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 6, 2023 16:17:56 GMT -5
Here's the thing. Yorke HAS to hit. Arguably has to be a plus hitter. And while the slash line is solid, his in-zone whiff rate (among the highest in the system believe it or not) and the accompanying reports indicate some issues below the surface that I, at least, worry about moving up. Rafaela, OTOH, brings defense and speed to the table. How much does he need to hit to be, say, Harrison Bader?I think it's close and there's a big gap between them and Bleis. I wouldn't quibble with preferring Yorke (James does). Just saying the argument for Rafaela at 3. Honestly, if Anthony starts lifting the ball he probably passes both. I'd say he needs to hit .246/.316/.411, which seems roughly in line what what I'd expect out of him as like a 70th-percentile outcome (maybe a little less OBP and a little more SLG).
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jun 6, 2023 17:08:32 GMT -5
Here's the thing. Yorke HAS to hit. Arguably has to be a plus hitter. And while the slash line is solid, his in-zone whiff rate (among the highest in the system believe it or not) and the accompanying reports indicate some issues below the surface that I, at least, worry about moving up. Rafaela, OTOH, brings defense and speed to the table. How much does he need to hit to be, say, Harrison Bader? I think it's close and there's a big gap between them and Bleis. I wouldn't quibble with preferring Yorke (James does). Just saying the argument for Rafaela at 3. Honestly, if Anthony starts lifting the ball he probably passes both. *eyes emoji*
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Post by bosoxnation on Jun 6, 2023 21:23:50 GMT -5
love the new update. great job guys!
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 6, 2023 21:41:54 GMT -5
Here's the thing. Yorke HAS to hit. Arguably has to be a plus hitter. And while the slash line is solid, his in-zone whiff rate (among the highest in the system believe it or not) and the accompanying reports indicate some issues below the surface that I, at least, worry about moving up. Rafaela, OTOH, brings defense and speed to the table. How much does he need to hit to be, say, Harrison Bader? I think it's close and there's a big gap between them and Bleis. I wouldn't quibble with preferring Yorke (James does). Just saying the argument for Rafaela at 3. Honestly, if Anthony starts lifting the ball he probably passes both. Curious, is it really unusual to have a plus hit tool and a high in-zone whiff rate? They seem contradictory to me (maybe this is the divergence that you are concerned about)? Are there any comparable MLB players with above average hot tools and high in-zone whiff rates?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 7, 2023 7:13:10 GMT -5
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 7, 2023 7:20:00 GMT -5
Valdez into the top 10 surprises me some too.
Streaks to how shallow the system is after 4. After Marcelo you have a tools kid in low A, and two good AA kids but outside of the top 100. Then you enter that area where you balance a couple of low A dreams with older really low ceiling guys like Valdez. If any of the low A chips were strong they would easily displace the older flotsam. If they draft a college kid in first round I could see him fit right into that 5-10 group. It’s crying out for a real prospect who is older than 19-20.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jun 7, 2023 7:33:25 GMT -5
Valdez into the top 10 surprises me some too.
Streaks to how shallow the system is after 4. After Marcelo you have a tools kid in low A, and two good AA kids but outside of the top 100. Then you enter that area where you balance a couple of low A dreams with older really low ceiling guys like Valdez. If any of the low A chips were strong they would easily displace the older flotsam. If they draft a college kid in first round I could see him fit right into that 5-10 group. It’s crying out for a real prospect who is older than 19-20. How shallow? Having your 10th ranked prospect be a kid who's shown he can compete in the majors is pretty nice
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 7, 2023 8:05:42 GMT -5
Valdez into the top 10 surprises me some too.
Streaks to how shallow the system is after 4. After Marcelo you have a tools kid in low A, and two good AA kids but outside of the top 100. Then you enter that area where you balance a couple of low A dreams with older really low ceiling guys like Valdez. If any of the low A chips were strong they would easily displace the older flotsam. If they draft a college kid in first round I could see him fit right into that 5-10 group. It’s crying out for a real prospect who is older than 19-20. Not to just reiterate what’s already been said to you, but I really think that if you view Valdez being 10th as a sign of weakness in the system, you need to recalibrate how you view prospects. Virtually no system in baseball is ever loaded with surefire big leaguers, that’s why they’re prospects. So yeah you can take your view and poke holes in why each guy after 4 might be overvalued but I’d argue that’s an extremely limited view and ignores the entire context of the developmental process. The system is actually in a pretty good spot right now, all things considered.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 7, 2023 8:27:01 GMT -5
Valdez into the top 10 surprises me some too.
Streaks to how shallow the system is after 4. After Marcelo you have a tools kid in low A, and two good AA kids but outside of the top 100. Then you enter that area where you balance a couple of low A dreams with older really low ceiling guys like Valdez. If any of the low A chips were strong they would easily displace the older flotsam. If they draft a college kid in first round I could see him fit right into that 5-10 group. It’s crying out for a real prospect who is older than 19-20. I had that same thought. FG has Valdez at -.1 WAR. He's underwater on offense and defense. My first reaction when I saw his ranking was surprise that that kind of performance by a kid without a position earned him a three-spot jump in the rankings. Conversely, I was surprised to see that Mata's ghastly BB rate and another injury hasn't knocked him down more. This is not a knock on the rankings. I think these two moves show why the system is rated middle of the pack, if you combine all the lists and average them out. But I do remain surprised that Blaze doesn't move much no matter how much he hits.
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Post by kingstephanos on Jun 7, 2023 8:44:01 GMT -5
Streaks to how shallow the system is after 4. After Marcelo you have a tools kid in low A, and two good AA kids but outside of the top 100. Then you enter that area where you balance a couple of low A dreams with older really low ceiling guys like Valdez. If any of the low A chips were strong they would easily displace the older flotsam. If they draft a college kid in first round I could see him fit right into that 5-10 group. It’s crying out for a real prospect who is older than 19-20. I had that same thought. FG has Valdez at -.1 WAR. He's underwater on offense and defense. My first reaction when I saw his ranking was surprise that that kind of performance by a kid without a position earned him a three-spot jump in the rankings. Conversely, I was surprised to see that Mata's ghastly BB rate and another injury hasn't knocked him down more. This is not a knock on the rankings. I think these two moves show why the system is rated middle of the pack, if you combine all the lists and average them out. But I do remain surprised that Blaze doesn't move much no matter how much he hits. To your point, I think it has to do with the adage that 1B/DH only types have to hit all the way up through the minors (and then back it up in the majors) to validate their status as potential MLB regulars. The bar is, and will always be, higher for the Blazes and Nikos of the baseball world. With the caveat that highly ranked bat only players (those picked in the 1st round, or given huge bonuses) are given the benefit of the doubt - more often than some may like. A la Casas, Torkleson etc. C'est la vie 🤷🏽
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 7, 2023 8:54:36 GMT -5
I had that same thought. FG has Valdez at -.1 WAR. He's underwater on offense and defense. My first reaction when I saw his ranking was surprise that that kind of performance by a kid without a position earned him a three-spot jump in the rankings. Conversely, I was surprised to see that Mata's ghastly BB rate and another injury hasn't knocked him down more. This is not a knock on the rankings. I think these two moves show why the system is rated middle of the pack, if you combine all the lists and average them out. But I do remain surprised that Blaze doesn't move much no matter how much he hits. To your point, I think it has to do with the adage that 1B/DH only types have to hit all the way up through the minors (and then back it up in the majors) to validate their status as potential MLB regulars. The bar is, and will always be, higher for the Blazes and Nikos of the baseball world. With the caveat that highly ranked bat only players (those picked in the 1st round, or given huge bonuses) are given the benefit of the doubt - more often than some may like. A la Casas, Torkleson etc. C'est la vie 🤷🏽 Good points. I understand all that. And it's particularly true of a Blaze who hits from the right side. He'd always be on the weak side of a platoon. Still, to see him mash and be ranked six spots below Valdez surprises me. Blaze is still only at high A and I'm sure that contributes too. OTOH, Valdez has to hit a lot to stick, too, because his defense isn't good.
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Post by redsoxrich on Jun 7, 2023 11:23:20 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 7, 2023 15:27:21 GMT -5
Streaks to how shallow the system is after 4. After Marcelo you have a tools kid in low A, and two good AA kids but outside of the top 100. Then you enter that area where you balance a couple of low A dreams with older really low ceiling guys like Valdez. If any of the low A chips were strong they would easily displace the older flotsam. If they draft a college kid in first round I could see him fit right into that 5-10 group. It’s crying out for a real prospect who is older than 19-20. I had that same thought. FG has Valdez at -.1 WAR. He's underwater on offense and defense. My first reaction when I saw his ranking was surprise that that kind of performance by a kid without a position earned him a three-spot jump in the rankings. Conversely, I was surprised to see that Mata's ghastly BB rate and another injury hasn't knocked him down more. This is not a knock on the rankings. I think these two moves show why the system is rated middle of the pack, if you combine all the lists and average them out. But I do remain surprised that Blaze doesn't move much no matter how much he hits. Once again--they're not power rankings, they're based on projections of how good they'll be in the majors. -Mata's gone through control blips before. Fair chance he always will. There's also a real chance that he could be a good major league pitcher in between those stretches. -Valdez has held his own against major league pitching and not been a disaster defensively. He has a .413 SLG, that is good! And he is 24 with less than a full season at Triple-A. He presents a little bit of upside and the floor of a reasonable major league backup. Also, in this case it was less about him rising and more about Lugo and Walter falling. -Jordan is really the best example possible about how this isn't a power-ranking exercise. He's a bat-first corner infielder who has hit well in Class-A. Well, and admirably so, but not incredibly; he's not doing what Jackie Bradley in 2012 or Ceddanne Rafaela in 2022 or someone who just had a total breakout at that level did where people needed to do a total reevaluation of them as prospects. He's 19th in the South Atlantic League in wOBA. And 16th is a good ranking for a guy with his profile. He's a couple spots above Hickey, who has outhit Jordan but has positional questions, and 12 spots above Kavadas. I also disagree that the system is particularly shallow after 4. 5/6 aren't at like the mid-'10's peak but Drohan and Anthony are about right there.
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Post by kwodes on Jun 15, 2023 8:37:13 GMT -5
I'm surprised that, with the helium he's getting both locally and nationally, Anthony's ceiling is only a 6. Maybe not as high as Bleis, but I figured he'd get at least a 7 as a 90th percentile outcome.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 15, 2023 8:40:41 GMT -5
I'm surprised that, with the helium he's getting both locally and nationally, Anthony's ceiling is only a 6. Maybe not as high as Bleis, but I figured he'd get at least a 7 as a 90th percentile outcome. I'd bet that's tied to his ground ball rates in Salem. If he can hit the ball in the more in Greenville, I think Chris said he'd likely move up to #3 on this site (I might even have him ahead of Bleis in that case). Could see that ceiling rise to a 7 in this case. But Chris or James could probably be more specific.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 15, 2023 8:47:05 GMT -5
I'm surprised that, with the helium he's getting both locally and nationally, Anthony's ceiling is only a 6. Maybe not as high as Bleis, but I figured he'd get at least a 7 as a 90th percentile outcome. I'd bet that's tied to his ground ball rates in Salem. If he can hit the ball in the more in Greenville, I think Chris said he'd likely move up to #3 on this site (I might even have him ahead of Bleis in that case). Could see that ceiling rise to a 7 in this case. But Chris or James could probably be more specific. What a two game two hit sample size isn't enough yet?He certainly is an intriguing prospect though, I feel like not a lot 19 year olds are able to blast an absolute rocket of a HR to CF like he showed last night and the double in his first game was an absolute missile too. Those reports weren't exaggerating that he can put up some exceptional EVs.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 15, 2023 10:36:39 GMT -5
We try to fiddle with the grades as little as possible -- it doesn't really make sense to keep juggling a player's ceiling or floor from month to month, so we like to feel definitive when we do so. Anthony's ceiling was a topic of conversation this month, and while we all agreed to stand pat for now I think we were pretty unanimous that we wouldn't hesitate moving it up, especially as we get better looks.
I see very little chance of him moving ahead of Bleis unless he just totally blows up at Greenville to the point where he's something like a top-40 prospect in the game. All four of us are very high on Bleis.
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