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2023 SoxProspects Ranking Updates
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Post by seamus on Aug 25, 2023 14:34:20 GMT -5
I dunno, I'm not sure there's a ton of difference between "average outfielder" and "can fake it at second base" in terms of value. It would be reasonable to conclude that Valdez has a sufficiently superior offensive profile to still come out ahead, and it seems to me that most people would have said Valdez was an at least somewhat better offensive player before the last month (and therefore many likely still would). If Abreu can actually be a GOOD outfielder, I think the calculus might start shifting in his favor.
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Post by kingstephanos on Aug 31, 2023 22:08:27 GMT -5
I'll say...
1. Ceddanne passes Bleis (probably not Anthony) 2. Mikey falls out of the Top 10 3. Luis Guerrero moves ahead of Ryan Fernandez 4. Yordanny and ERC move up 5. Gambrell moves up, Rogers moves down
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Post by pk on Sept 1, 2023 9:21:53 GMT -5
I'll say... 1. Ceddanne passes Bleis (probably not Anthony) 2. Mikey falls out of the Top 10 3. Luis Guerrero moves ahead of Ryan Fernandez 4. Yordanny and ERC move up 5. Gambrell moves up, Rogers moves down I’m a big Rafaela fan, but Mike and Ian are very wary, so not sure they would go above Bleis. Agreed on Mikey - I’m not sold on him at all. What about Dobbins?
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Post by soxin8 on Sept 2, 2023 5:37:40 GMT -5
This may be a better question for the podcast but in a very small sample size, is there anything to be made of Gambrell outperforming Drohan at AAA?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 2, 2023 6:57:01 GMT -5
This may be a better question for the podcast but in a very small sample size, is there anything to be made of Gambrell outperforming Drohan at AAA? Gambrell had literally made 2 starts in AAA. No.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 7, 2023 13:37:56 GMT -5
Being alone on a boat can be incredibly peaceful.
1 Rafaela. I see a future superstar with a seriously underrated hit tool. 2 Teel. I see a plus on both sides of the dish. Future top 5 catcher. With me, catchers get a bigger bump because, catchers. 3 Anthony. The ball jumps off his bat. He'll be a stud right fielder. 4. Mayer. I know, young for the league and fighting shoulder issues. Those are reasons, I wanna see it. His production went down as the season progressed, not up. 5. Yorke. Maybe not with the Sox but this is an everyday starting second baseman in the making. Solid but not spectacular defender. 6. Bleis. Losing a year on top of being very raw makes his reaching his potential a smaller probability than at the start of the year.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Sept 7, 2023 15:01:00 GMT -5
I think I’d flip Rafaela and Bleis then call the top 9 a day, leaving most where they are. Teel’s debut is still a SSS, and he hasn’t hit for any power outside of the FCL whatsoever. It would be one thing if he was tearing the cover off of the ball, but he more so just looks like he was too advanced for the level(s) he was at. Let’s see how he fares in AA before getting excited. He seems like a great defender, but I’m not sold on his bat being any better than Wong’s yet (different types of hitters I know).
I would bump Bonaci to the 10 spot and think Abreu & Hickey are a bit low.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Sept 8, 2023 6:39:57 GMT -5
Hoping to have new rankings out by noon today.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 8, 2023 9:05:38 GMT -5
Being alone on a boat can be incredibly peaceful. 1 Rafaela. I see a future superstar with a seriously underrated hit tool. 2 Teel. I see a plus on both sides of the dish. Future top 5 catcher. With me, catchers get a bigger bump because, catchers. 3 Anthony. The ball jumps off his bat. He'll be a stud right fielder. 4. Mayer. I know, young for the league and fighting shoulder issues. Those are reasons, I wanna see it. His production went down as the season progressed, not up. 5. Yorke. Maybe not with the Sox but this is an everyday starting second baseman in the making. Solid but not spectacular defender. 6. Bleis. Losing a year on top of being very raw makes his reaching his potential a smaller probability than at the start of the year. Looking at this top 6 just shows a lot of strength in the Sox system as it's not too hard to envision MLB careers for each within the next 2-3 years (maybe excepting Bleis). As for my binky Ceddanne, nice to see a knowledgeable poster ranking him up top. So far he has been able to hit MLB pitching in SSS, but of course he's K'ing a lot, has made an error in one of the 3 up the middle positions he's played and got caught stealing which his doubters and detractors will not doubt point out (without the SSS caveat -jk).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 8, 2023 9:26:43 GMT -5
From another perspective which is an interesting perspective to me, who would I trade who for. That's a different issue altogether. For me, position(s) played plays a major part. My rank would be:
1. Teel 2. Rafaela 3. Mayer 4. W. Gonzales 5. Bleis 6. Anthony 7. Perales
I'm not so sure Yorke would be in my top 10. 2nd base only is pretty limiting.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Sept 8, 2023 10:04:15 GMT -5
September Rankings are live: www.soxprospects.com(You may have to hit refresh) Notes-Prospects 3-5 (Bleis, Rafaela, Teel) were the toughest calls towards the top that we've had in a long time. We're all in the same ballpark but not 100% aligned. We raised Rafaela's and Teel's projection grades to a 5, but decided to watch the games and review the data & reports for another month on those three prospects before making any other changes there. -We struggled with ranking Noah Song - based on live scouting, current day Song might not make the cut for the top 60. But there is a chance 2019 Noah Song is still in there - that Song would be ranked pretty high. He's ranked at 60 for now. It will be an important off-season and will be fun to follow how he looks in the spring. GraduatesNick Robertson graduated DebutsZack Penrod debuts at 49 RisersYoelin Cespedes up from 15 to 10 Wilyer Abreu up from 23 to 12 Corey Rosier up from 56 to 44 Brock Bell from unranked to 50 Felix Cepeda from unranked to 54 FallersMike Romero from 10 to 18 Bryan Mata from 21 to 27 Cutter Coffey from 30 to 37 Freili Encarnacion from 49 to 56 Phillip Sikes from 46 to 57 Niko Kavadas from 42 to unranked Christian Koss from 50 to unranked CJ Liu from 51 to unranked Note: please, for the love of god, keep in mind that just because a player moved a few spots in either direction it does not necessarily mean we think more or less of that player at the time of that given update compared to last month. New prospects debut in the rankings, players graduate, other prospects make big jumps around that player. It's all relative. Grades are important as well.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 8, 2023 12:19:54 GMT -5
Good stuff. If you think about the list, we're also loaded with breakout candidates for next year. There's a ton of those, more than I can ever remember.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 8, 2023 14:23:24 GMT -5
Actual Player Last Change 1 Marcelo Mayer 1 0 2 Roman Anthony 2 0 3 Miguel Bleis 3 0 4 C Rafaela 4 0 5 Kyle Teel 5 0 6 Nick Yorke 6 0 7 Luis Perales 7 0 8 W Gonzalez 8 0 9 N Zanetello 9 0 10 Y Cespedes 15 5 11 Brainer Bonaci 12 1 12 Wilyer Abreu 23 11 13 Shane Drohan 11 -2 14 Jo. Garcia 14 0 15 Brandon Walter 13 -2 16 Chase Meidroth 16 0 17 Allan Castro 20 3 18 Mikey Romero 10 -8 19 Nathan Hickey 18 -1 20 E Paulino 24 4 21 Enmanuel Valdez 17 -4 22 Blaze Jordan 19 -3 23 David Hamilton 22 -1 24 A Anderson 26 2 25 Y Monegro 29 4 26 E Rodriguez 25 -1 27 Bryan Mata 21 -6 28 Hunter Dobbins 32 4 29 Luis Guerrero 31 2 30 Angel Bastardo 34 4 31 Ryan Fernandez 27 -4 32 Alex Hoppe 33 1 33 M Alcantara 28 -5 34 Brooks Brannon 36 2 35 Stephen Scott 41 5 36 Dalton Rogers 35 -1 37 Cutter Coffey 30 -7 38 Grant Gambrell 43 4 39 Chris Troye 39 -1 40 Luis Ravelo 37 -3 41 Jedixson Paez 40 -2 42 Natanael Yuten 44 1 43 Franklin Arias 45 1 44 Corey Rosier 56 11 45 Matthew Lugo 47 1 46 Isaac Coffey 48 1 47 Tyler McDonough 52 4 48 K Campbell 54 5 49 Zach Penrod 11 50 Brock Bell 10 51 Justin Riemer 55 3 52 Nick Sogard 60 7 53 Ryan Zeferjahn 57 3 54 Felix Cepeda 6 55 Reidis Sena 5 56 F Encarnacion 49 -8 57 Phillip Sikes 46 -12 58 Enderso Lira 53 -6 59 Matt Duffy 58 -2 60 Noah Song 0
FYI, this accounts for Robertson graduating (you'd be expected to move up 1 if you were behind him, so being in the same spot is really -1, etc.).
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 8, 2023 15:27:51 GMT -5
Uh oh Cespedes getting close to the zone where I'm convinced he's a superstar. Also love the aggressive move up for Wilyer.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,416
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Post by radiohix on Sept 8, 2023 18:07:58 GMT -5
Uh oh Cespedes getting close to the zone where I'm convinced he's a superstar. Also love the aggressive move up for Wilyer. I have a feeling that the guys got some scouting reports from the DR cause I don’t think that bump is solely based on the numbers he has put.
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Post by nonothing on Sept 9, 2023 8:56:36 GMT -5
Great list as always. Couple that stick out are:
Upside to current:
1) The gap between Drohan and Gambrell (others could debate the direction of movement to close that gap, but probably it is toward the middle of where each are currently ranked)
2) The gap between Arias on here vs. other young, high upside players or vs. his placement on MLB list (esp as they have him at 60 on all of run/field/arm, while his hitting stats were great this year -- avg/obp, he doesn't K much, takes walks, all good signs). Sox Prospects notes 5 tool potential, defensive skills and high baseball IQ, so I would think he would be in top 30 if Bleis, Zanetello and Cespedes are so high in rankings (i.e. also very young guys with a lot to prove)
3) Kristian Campbell - Among the top hitters in the ACC and continued to hit with Sox post draft. Doesn't strike out and got on base nearly 50% of the time in ACC. Maybe he isn't a SS, but he is very likely to prove he should be top 30. Seems likely he is in AA ball by mid-2024 and ranks more similarly to, if not above, Anderson by then.
Feel too high:
1) Drohan and Walter - Seem to be proving less likely to provide MLB value (probably on way to sub-20 guys)
2) Hamilton is the position player version of the above (probably on way to sub-30 guy where they have Duran and Rafaela with speed, with other tools where Hamilton only seems to have MLB plus speed, with no real defensive or offensive strength otherwise)
Interesting pair:
1) Teel below Bleis? I understand Rafaela arguments so leaving him out. But a guy in AA that dominated in college ball and could be an all-star caliber 2-way C in the big leagues in under 2 yrs vs a guy you can dream on that was hurt almost all year and didn't play great the brief moment he played? Dunno - Teel could be viewed as the most likely high ceiling player on the team. Maybe not the highest ceiling, but the most probable very high ceiling player. Rank order is hard for sure, but this is a striking pair to me.
Thanks so much for the very thoughtful list as always!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Sept 9, 2023 9:01:53 GMT -5
Great list as always. Couple that stick out are: Upside to current: 1) The gap between Drohan and Gambrell (others could debate the direction of movement to close that gap, but probably it is toward the middle of where each are currently ranked) 2) The gap between Arias on here vs. other young, high upside players or vs. his placement on MLB list (esp as they have him at 60 on all of run/field/arm, while his hitting stats were great this year -- avg/obp, he doesn't K much, takes walks, all good signs). Sox Prospects notes 5 tool potential, defensive skills and high baseball IQ, so I would think he would be in top 30 if Bleis, Zanetello and Cespedes are so high in rankings (i.e. also very young guys with a lot to prove) 3) Kristian Campbell - Among the top hitters in the ACC and continued to hit with Sox post draft. Doesn't strike out and got on base nearly 50% of the time in ACC. Maybe he isn't a SS, but he is very likely to prove he should be top 30. Good chance he is in AA ball by mid-2024 and ranks more similarly to, if not above, Anderson by then. Feel too high: 1) Drohan and Walter - Seem to be proving less likely to provide MLB value (probably should be sub-20 guys) 2) Hamilton is the position player version of the above (probably should be sub-30 guy where they have Duran and Rafaela with speed and other tools and this guy only seems to have speed - no real defensive or offensive strength otherwise) Interesting pair: 1) Teel below Bleis? I understand Rafaela arguments so leaving him out. But a guy in AA that dominated in college ball and could be an all-star caliber 2-way C in the big leagues in under 2 yrs vs a guy you can dream on that was hurt almost all year and didn't play great the brief moment he played? Dunno - Teel could be viewed as the most likely high ceiling player on the team. Maybe not the highest ceiling, but the most probable very high ceiling player. Rank order is hard for sure, but this is a striking pair to me. I’d imagine the hesitation towards ranking Campbell higher stems from two things - the first is that his pre-draft equity was just fine (IIRC Callis just straight up didn’t like him) and I think that does matter when you’re gauging first impressions. The second is the Chase Meidroth experience to date. Don’t get me wrong I love Meidroth and was fighting for him to be ranked higher all year but I think you’re seeing what a guy who had an advanced approach/feel for contact at the college level may be at the upper levels of the minors when there isn’t much of a threat to impact the ball. Campbell is a better athlete than Meidroth and I’m certainly not out on either of them by any means, but I don’t think anything Campbell does in A-ball is really going to move the needle in either direction at this point.
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Post by nonothing on Sept 9, 2023 9:06:47 GMT -5
Great list as always. Couple that stick out are: Upside to current: 1) The gap between Drohan and Gambrell (others could debate the direction of movement to close that gap, but probably it is toward the middle of where each are currently ranked) 2) The gap between Arias on here vs. other young, high upside players or vs. his placement on MLB list (esp as they have him at 60 on all of run/field/arm, while his hitting stats were great this year -- avg/obp, he doesn't K much, takes walks, all good signs). Sox Prospects notes 5 tool potential, defensive skills and high baseball IQ, so I would think he would be in top 30 if Bleis, Zanetello and Cespedes are so high in rankings (i.e. also very young guys with a lot to prove) 3) Kristian Campbell - Among the top hitters in the ACC and continued to hit with Sox post draft. Doesn't strike out and got on base nearly 50% of the time in ACC. Maybe he isn't a SS, but he is very likely to prove he should be top 30. Good chance he is in AA ball by mid-2024 and ranks more similarly to, if not above, Anderson by then. Feel too high: 1) Drohan and Walter - Seem to be proving less likely to provide MLB value (probably should be sub-20 guys) 2) Hamilton is the position player version of the above (probably should be sub-30 guy where they have Duran and Rafaela with speed and other tools and this guy only seems to have speed - no real defensive or offensive strength otherwise) Interesting pair: 1) Teel below Bleis? I understand Rafaela arguments so leaving him out. But a guy in AA that dominated in college ball and could be an all-star caliber 2-way C in the big leagues in under 2 yrs vs a guy you can dream on that was hurt almost all year and didn't play great the brief moment he played? Dunno - Teel could be viewed as the most likely high ceiling player on the team. Maybe not the highest ceiling, but the most probable very high ceiling player. Rank order is hard for sure, but this is a striking pair to me. I’d imagine the hesitation towards ranking Campbell higher stems from two things - the first is that his pre-draft equity was just fine (IIRC Callis just straight up didn’t like him) and I think that does matter when you’re gauging first impressions. The second is the Chase Meidroth experience to date. Don’t get me wrong I love Meidroth and was fighting for him to be ranked higher all year but I think you’re seeing what a guy who had an advanced approach/feel for contact at the college level may be at the upper levels of the minors when there isn’t much of a threat to impact the ball. Campbell is a better athlete than Meidroth and I’m certainly not out on either of them by any means, but I don’t think anything Campbell does in A-ball is really going to move the needle in either direction at this point. Agree with all and thought about exactly that. I think the athleticism and frame with room to develop could differentiate here, and was generally thinking he just seemed very low vs a player like Meidroth (not that he will necessarily ever break top 15). Also notice Portland hitters generally seemed to hit a wall in 2nd half. Wonder if somebody has a particular rationale or something they saw?
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 9, 2023 9:14:28 GMT -5
Great list as always. Couple that stick out are: Upside to current: 1) The gap between Drohan and Gambrell (others could debate the direction of movement to close that gap, but probably it is toward the middle of where each are currently ranked) 2) The gap between Arias on here vs. other young, high upside players or vs. his placement on MLB list (esp as they have him at 60 on all of run/field/arm, while his hitting stats were great this year -- avg/obp, he doesn't K much, takes walks, all good signs). Sox Prospects notes 5 tool potential, defensive skills and high baseball IQ, so I would think he would be in top 30 if Bleis, Zanetello and Cespedes are so high in rankings (i.e. also very young guys with a lot to prove) 3) Kristian Campbell - Among the top hitters in the ACC and continued to hit with Sox post draft. Doesn't strike out and got on base nearly 50% of the time in ACC. Maybe he isn't a SS, but he is very likely to prove he should be top 30. Seems likely he is in AA ball by mid-2024 and ranks more similarly to, if not above, Anderson by then. Feel too high: 1) Drohan and Walter - Seem to be proving less likely to provide MLB value (probably on way to sub-20 guys) 2) Hamilton is the position player version of the above (probably on way to sub-30 guy where they have Duran and Rafaela with speed, with other tools where Hamilton only seems to have MLB plus speed, with no real defensive or offensive strength otherwise) Interesting pair: 1) Teel below Bleis? I understand Rafaela arguments so leaving him out. But a guy in AA that dominated in college ball and could be an all-star caliber 2-way C in the big leagues in under 2 yrs vs a guy you can dream on that was hurt almost all year and didn't play great the brief moment he played? Dunno - Teel could be viewed as the most likely high ceiling player on the team. Maybe not the highest ceiling, but the most probable very high ceiling player. Rank order is hard for sure, but this is a striking pair to me. Thanks so much for the very thoughtful list as always! I don’t think you meant it this way but some of the wording here comes off a little rude to me - when you say guys “probably should” be ranked differently as opposed to expressing it as your personal opinion it implies that your impressions are somehow objectively superior to the SP staff’s (who put a lot of time into this every month). Again don’t think you meant it like badly and maybe they won’t feel that way. I also think you made some interesting points there, but those can be lost when the phrasing comes out wrong.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Sept 9, 2023 9:25:33 GMT -5
I think people are kind of selling Bleis short after 30 rough games this year. He’s an incredible athlete, posts impressive 90th percentile EV, and should stick in CF. He’s more aggressive at the plate, but let’s not forget that Anthony wasn’t raking in Salem this year either. He’s kind of the forgotten man, but he still arguably possesses the most upside in the system.
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 9, 2023 9:52:10 GMT -5
I think people are kind of selling Bleis short after 30 rough games this year. He’s an incredible athlete, posts impressive 90th percentile EV, and should stick in CF. He’s more aggressive at the plate, but let’s not forget that Anthony wasn’t raking in Salem this year either. He’s kind of the forgotten man, but he still arguably possesses the most upside in the system. Yeah, there are signs that a guy has a shot to make the majors and then there are signs that a guy has a shot to be special. Many of those signs don’t show up in the box score, but people with the underlying data all seem to be in agreement that Bleis has the tools to be special. My recollection is that Anthony’s ranking outpaced his production because he showed similar signs—the ball just jumps off their bats, in a way that really sticks out for their age.
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Post by tjb21 on Sept 9, 2023 12:37:39 GMT -5
The Romero injury (and slight fall) bums me out for the kid.
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Post by nonothing on Sept 9, 2023 15:31:33 GMT -5
Great list as always. Couple that stick out are: Upside to current: 1) The gap between Drohan and Gambrell (others could debate the direction of movement to close that gap, but probably it is toward the middle of where each are currently ranked) 2) The gap between Arias on here vs. other young, high upside players or vs. his placement on MLB list (esp as they have him at 60 on all of run/field/arm, while his hitting stats were great this year -- avg/obp, he doesn't K much, takes walks, all good signs). Sox Prospects notes 5 tool potential, defensive skills and high baseball IQ, so I would think he would be in top 30 if Bleis, Zanetello and Cespedes are so high in rankings (i.e. also very young guys with a lot to prove) 3) Kristian Campbell - Among the top hitters in the ACC and continued to hit with Sox post draft. Doesn't strike out and got on base nearly 50% of the time in ACC. Maybe he isn't a SS, but he is very likely to prove he should be top 30. Seems likely he is in AA ball by mid-2024 and ranks more similarly to, if not above, Anderson by then. Feel too high: 1) Drohan and Walter - Seem to be proving less likely to provide MLB value (probably on way to sub-20 guys) 2) Hamilton is the position player version of the above (probably on way to sub-30 guy where they have Duran and Rafaela with speed, with other tools where Hamilton only seems to have MLB plus speed, with no real defensive or offensive strength otherwise) Interesting pair: 1) Teel below Bleis? I understand Rafaela arguments so leaving him out. But a guy in AA that dominated in college ball and could be an all-star caliber 2-way C in the big leagues in under 2 yrs vs a guy you can dream on that was hurt almost all year and didn't play great the brief moment he played? Dunno - Teel could be viewed as the most likely high ceiling player on the team. Maybe not the highest ceiling, but the most probable very high ceiling player. Rank order is hard for sure, but this is a striking pair to me. Thanks so much for the very thoughtful list as always! I don’t think you meant it this way but some of the wording here comes off a little rude to me - when you say guys “probably should” be ranked differently as opposed to expressing it as your personal opinion it implies that your impressions are somehow objectively superior to the SP staff’s (who put a lot of time into this every month). Again don’t think you meant it like badly and maybe they won’t feel that way. I also think you made some interesting points there, but those can be lost when the phrasing comes out wrong. Yeah, I hear you. I tried to avoid that because they definitely know way more than me, and I both know and respect that. I am sure they debate this stuff for a long time each month and try to be consistent over time as well. Rankings are not a science. I was just trying to throw some thoughts out there, but I definitely am not trying to offend or belittle or any other such thing. They do a great job. Just a discussion forum, so... discussing.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 10, 2023 7:38:47 GMT -5
The Romero injury (and slight fall) bums me out for the kid. It highlights the issues with the system. High volatility because the players are young and unproven. Lots of "flavor of the month" movement (and I say that recognizing this site tries to minimize this by focusing on tools, not results), more, I think, than I remember in the 2015-2018 period, where the players were at higher levels, and so even if injured or slumping, didn't bob up and down as much (sort of like Mayer, now, who his far more stable despite a large hiccup). But with Bleis, Yorke, Romero, and Anthony on the plus side, is small sample sizes so lots of movement. It's one of the reasons I understand why the system may be ranked more highly due to upside, but I am less convinced because it's so far away.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Sept 10, 2023 12:30:56 GMT -5
Uh oh Cespedes getting close to the zone where I'm convinced he's a superstar. Also love the aggressive move up for Wilyer. I have a feeling that the guys got some scouting reports from the DR cause I don’t think that bump is solely based on the numbers he has put. Probably true, but the numbers he put up are really impressive and he was the Sox top IFA signing. How often do the current year IFA's crack the Sox Prospects top 10? I wasn't here, but looking at the list and taking my best guess: Bleis did in 2021. Did any of D. Flores ( ) Diaz, or A. Flores in 2018? Danny probably did. 2014, Moncada and Espinoza definitely did. Rusney might have. 2013, Devers did. So it's happened, but it's been happening less often than it did from 09-14. Margot, Igelsias, Xander and Tazawa were also in that period. Which makes sense due to the IFA slotting that happened around then and the Sox not being able to sign anyone for more than $300k for a few years. I try not to get too excited about DSL results but I'm definitely going to be following him closely.
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