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6/19-6/22 Red Sox @ Twins Series Thread
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 19, 2023 21:34:34 GMT -5
It's got to be so strange to be a Twins fan right now. On the one hand, their starting pitching has been good and they're in first place, so they have a fair shot at making the playoffs. On the other hand, their shiny new toys Vazquez and Correa have been very disappointing, they can't score runs, and they're about to be below .500 despite playing in an atrocious division. Lopez is a decent pitcher but if I were a Twins fan I'd be mad about dealing away a guy doing a great Rod Carew impersonation.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 19, 2023 21:37:33 GMT -5
Great win. Good for Vazquez going deep. Congrats to Cora on 400 Red Sox managerial wins. Will he get a chance at 500?
Duran has picked up the pace and apparently as how he goes the offense goes. It is fun watching him fly into 2b on what would be singles for everybody else.
Other than 1 pitch Paxton was great.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 19, 2023 21:48:55 GMT -5
ALL 3 PHASES SHOWED UP AT THE SAME TIME
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Jun 19, 2023 21:51:19 GMT -5
ALL 3 PHASES SHOWED UP AT THE SAME TIME This diesel engine is ready to gear up!
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 19, 2023 22:15:29 GMT -5
It's got to be so strange to be a Twins fan right now. On the one hand, their starting pitching has been good and they're in first place, so they have a fair shot at making the playoffs. On the other hand, their shiny new toys Vazquez and Correa have been very disappointing, they can't score runs, and they're about to be below .500 despite playing in an atrocious division. Lopez is a decent pitcher but if I were a Twins fan I'd be mad about dealing away a guy doing a great Rod Carew impersonation. Of course, how could I forget Arraez! Rough offseason for them.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 19, 2023 22:29:45 GMT -5
Lopez is a decent pitcher but if I were a Twins fan I'd be mad about dealing away a guy doing a great Rod Carew impersonation. Of course, how could I forget Arraez! Rough offseason for them. When they made that deal I said the Twins got hosed and was told that the Marlins were the ones who got hosed, that Lopez was a good young pitcher and Attaez was a defensively flawed hitter with a good average but little power and not a lit of walks. I understand that point of view and certainly didnt expect Arraez to be flirting with .400, but I've always liked his bat, his hit tool. He had high batting averages in the minors and I expected he'd be at least a .300 hitter who'd probably win a batting title or two. I thought he could be a .330 in a few of his seasons. These days hit tools that are plus like that are far and few between. Every era has that rare guy though but this one had been lacking. There was Carew, then Boggs and then Gwynn. Then Ichiro and then a big gap until Arraez.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 19, 2023 22:55:39 GMT -5
5% k rate for Arraez, lol lmao rofl
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Post by melvinhoggs on Jun 19, 2023 23:30:05 GMT -5
Even hovering around a .400 BA, it's crazy that Arraez is only beating out Lopez in WAR by a little bit. He is the true poster child for "empty batting average" – can't run, not a good fielder, no power, doesn't walk.
I'd still rather have the hitter in most all-things-equal situations, so I'm pro-Arraez – but I'm not sure the Twins feel like they got fleeced (yet).
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Post by yuchangclan on Jun 19, 2023 23:36:07 GMT -5
5% k rate for Arraez, lol lmao rofl That’s how it’s supposed to go for the truly great hitters. Look at Tony Gwynn’s stats. He would strike out 15-20 times for the whole season most years. Just remarkable.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 19, 2023 23:46:47 GMT -5
Now that the Reds and Diamondbacks are in first place and the Angels have passed the Astros, the Red Sox' late May-early June slump has retroactively become less appalling.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 19, 2023 23:53:17 GMT -5
Twins also got Jose Salas, the older brother of the kid who debuted in A-Ball at 16 years old earlier this year, in the deal. He was supposed to be a decent chunk of the return and he's been a disaster this season,
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 20, 2023 0:44:15 GMT -5
Updating ...
Sox have gone 5-0 over a 6-day span, while their 6 rivals for three the wild cards spots have collectively gone 10-20. Sox gained 4.5 games on the 0-4 Yanks, 4.5 on the 1-5 Astros, 3.5 on the 2-4 3 Jays, 3 on the 2-3 O's, 2.5 on the 2-2 Mariners, and 2.0 on the 3-2 Angels.
That's a pretty good week, so far.
Sox now trail the Yanks by 1.5 games, the Astros by 1, and the Jays by 0.5.
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Post by sam01 on Jun 20, 2023 5:41:02 GMT -5
Even hovering around a .400 BA, it's crazy that Arraez is only beating out Lopez in WAR by a little bit. He is the true poster child for "empty batting average" – can't run, not a good fielder, no power, doesn't walk. I'd still rather have the hitter in most all-things-equal situations, so I'm pro-Arraez – but I'm not sure the Twins feel like they got fleeced (yet). The Twins also extended Lopez which was in line with their thinking all along. I don't think their GM has any regrets on that deal.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 20, 2023 6:58:47 GMT -5
Even hovering around a .400 BA, it's crazy that Arraez is only beating out Lopez in WAR by a little bit. He is the true poster child for "empty batting average" – can't run, not a good fielder, no power, doesn't walk. I'd still rather have the hitter in most all-things-equal situations, so I'm pro-Arraez – but I'm not sure the Twins feel like they got fleeced (yet). I get it but personally I'd rather have the guy who is winning the batting title than a pitcher with an ERA above 4, no matter what WAR says. If WAR says that Arraez is barely better than what Lopez is doing this season then WAR is missing the mark. I get that Arraez doesn't walk a ton or have power and is meh defensively, but I have to believe that a guy pinging 2 singles every 5 ABs consistently is doing more to help his team win than some guy giving up more earned runs per 9 innings than league average even if the advances metrics don't agree. Like I said I didnt expect Arraez to challenge .400 into June. I expect he'll inevitably cool off and wind up around .350 which last time I checked isnt too shabby a mark, especially in the baseball world of 3 true outcomes where the league average is barely .240 these days. I understand empty batting averages, etc, and used to champion the Mark Bellhorns of the world but when the Bellhorns became the rule rather than the exceptions and a guy like Arraez the dinosaur and the game became a 3 true outcome slog then I started to champion the Arraezes of the world although Arraez is obviously the best of that rare breed, a guy with an amazing hit tool and little else, but oh what a hit tool. This guy will probably won a few batting titles, and yeah I know, when that tool fades his career will fade quickly too, but wow, can you imagine having a guy to follow that has been that consistent that you're even talking about. 400 in mid-June? With the Sox it was Wade Boggs each at bat. For a couple if years it was Nomar. Maybe its special to me because of timing. I started watching baseball mid 1980, just in time to see George Brett make a serious run at .400, and maybe I feel cheated that Gwynn was frozen at .394, and regret that I missed Carew in 1977. It also explains one of the many reasons I idolize Ted Williams even though I never saw him play. So I say keep hitting Arraez, give us something cool to remember.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 20, 2023 8:03:35 GMT -5
Arraez is on pace to have the worst baserunning season in more than a decade, which is probably why his WAR doesn't seem to add up
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Jun 20, 2023 8:16:26 GMT -5
fWAR and bWAR for both Lopez and Arraez is dramatically different.
On fangraphs, they look really close. 1.9 for Lopez and 2.1 for Arraez.
On bref, they're far apart. 0.8 for Lopez and 3.1 for Arraez.
Lopez has a really good FIP this year so if you're more interested in that, the trade looks a lot better than of you look at his ERA.
Basically, if you're upset that a guy with a 4+ ERA is so close to a guy who has a .400 BA, it's because that's not really the case.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 20, 2023 8:24:50 GMT -5
After last night, since May 1st Casas has a 125 wRC+ a BB% of 14.3 and a K% of 23.8. His slash line is .264/.367/.456, he's also positive in fWAR on the season now. If they can get his defense up to where it needs to be I'd say I'm pretty confident we have a starting caliber 1st for the next 5+ years with him.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 20, 2023 8:36:27 GMT -5
It is pretty nice having your random fill-ins like Reyes, Tapia and Valdez perform competently after years of seemingly every guy like this putting up a quick -.5 WAR before never seeing the majors again
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 20, 2023 8:41:55 GMT -5
fWAR and bWAR for both Lopez and Arraez is dramatically different. On fangraphs, they look really close. 1.9 for Lopez and 2.1 for Arraez. On bref, they're far apart. 0.8 for Lopez and 3.1 for Arraez. Lopez has a really good FIP this year so if you're more interested in that, the trade looks a lot better than of you look at his ERA. Basically, if you're upset that a guy with a 4+ ERA is so close to a guy who has a .400 BA, it's because that's not really the case. bWAR for position players is pretty terrible, though, and while I don't love bWAR or fWAR for pitchers, I still prefer fWAR. ERA is just a bad stat and so, for that matter, is AVG.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 20, 2023 9:05:21 GMT -5
fWAR and bWAR for both Lopez and Arraez is dramatically different. On fangraphs, they look really close. 1.9 for Lopez and 2.1 for Arraez. On bref, they're far apart. 0.8 for Lopez and 3.1 for Arraez. Lopez has a really good FIP this year so if you're more interested in that, the trade looks a lot better than of you look at his ERA. Basically, if you're upset that a guy with a 4+ ERA is so close to a guy who has a .400 BA, it's because that's not really the case. bWAR for position players is pretty terrible, though, and while I don't love bWAR or fWAR for pitchers, I still prefer fWAR. ERA is just a bad stat and so, for that matter, is AVG. I still don't get why ESPN, FOX and the regionals such as NESN continue to put up AVE when a batter is at the plate when vast bulk of fans at this point know that OBP/OBA is a superior and more informative stat. This is especially true when they flash it for a guy up with bases loaded. Then it's even more informative to show OBP. He may only have a .250 AVE in that situation, but if he has a .350 OBP then he's moving the runners at an above average rate. If their excuses is, "Yeah, but the casual fan!" then whoever is making that excuse needs a marketing lesson. You don't predicate your content to secondary or tertiary audiences. You want to appeal to the primary audience. Casual fans all have phones. If they don't know what OBP is, they're not walking away, they're taking out their phones to search or asking Siri/Alexa/Uncle Ralph "What's OBP?" Also, wondering why the batting title is still predicated on average instead of OBP.
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Post by manfred on Jun 20, 2023 9:31:00 GMT -5
bWAR for position players is pretty terrible, though, and while I don't love bWAR or fWAR for pitchers, I still prefer fWAR. ERA is just a bad stat and so, for that matter, is AVG. I still don't get why ESPN, FOX and the regionals such as NESN continue to put up AVE when a batter is at the plate when vast bulk of fans at this point know that OBP/OBA is a superior and more informative stat. This is especially true when they flash it for a guy up with bases loaded. Then it's even more informative to show OBP. He may only have a .250 AVE in that situation, but if he has a .350 OBP then he's moving the runners at an above average rate. If their excuses is, "Yeah, but the casual fan!" then whoever is making that excuse needs a marketing lesson. You don't predicate your content to secondary or tertiary audiences. You want to appeal to the primary audience. Casual fans all have phones. If they don't know what OBP is, they're not walking away, they're taking out their phones to search or asking Siri/Alexa/Uncle Ralph "What's OBP?" Also, wondering why the batting title is still predicated on average instead of OBP. I imagine it is because people don’t pay to watch guys walk? I mean, stat guys might find it exciting, but most sports fans like things to happen. So hits equal action. I think people who get invested in microstats might be cutting off their noses to spite their face. The more analytics has taken over baseball, the further the sport has receded in the national imagination. You can claim casual fans need to be educated, but that is condescending. I get why, say, having openers or brief starts increases chances of winning. But in a culture that is star driven, narrative driven, that is not good marketing. No amount of education can make it pleasing to root math. The dedication to analytics on this board is admirable, but it is an outlier. The analytics folks are the tertiary market, not the casual fans. And if that is flipping, it is likely not because folks are being educated… but because they are turning to other sports.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jun 20, 2023 9:48:45 GMT -5
Playoff odds up to 25%
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Post by incandenza on Jun 20, 2023 9:57:45 GMT -5
I still don't get why ESPN, FOX and the regionals such as NESN continue to put up AVE when a batter is at the plate when vast bulk of fans at this point know that OBP/OBA is a superior and more informative stat. This is especially true when they flash it for a guy up with bases loaded. Then it's even more informative to show OBP. He may only have a .250 AVE in that situation, but if he has a .350 OBP then he's moving the runners at an above average rate. If their excuses is, "Yeah, but the casual fan!" then whoever is making that excuse needs a marketing lesson. You don't predicate your content to secondary or tertiary audiences. You want to appeal to the primary audience. Casual fans all have phones. If they don't know what OBP is, they're not walking away, they're taking out their phones to search or asking Siri/Alexa/Uncle Ralph "What's OBP?" Also, wondering why the batting title is still predicated on average instead of OBP. I imagine it is because people don’t pay to watch guys walk? I mean, stat guys might find it exciting, but most sports fans like things to happen. So hits equal action. I think people who get invested in microstats might be cutting off their noses to spite their face. The more analytics has taken over baseball, the further the sport has receded in the national imagination. You can claim casual fans need to be educated, but that is condescending. I get why, say, having openers or brief starts increases chances of winning. But in a culture that is star driven, narrative driven, that is not good marketing. No amount of education can make it pleasing to root math. The dedication to analytics on this board is admirable, but it is an outlier. The analytics folks are the tertiary market, not the casual fans. And if that is flipping, it is likely not because folks are being educated… but because they are turning to other sports. I mostly agree with this, but with a big caveat. The "mostly agree" part is that you have to be a lunatic weirdo to get into stats like FIP and wRC+ and xwOBA and stuff - much as you have to be a weirdo to comment several times a day on a baseball discussion forum. And that is always going to be a pretty small slice of the baseball audience; most people, very reasonably, just want to enjoy watching the games.
The caveat is that it's the job of the announcers/media to communicate accurately about what is actually valued in the game. Remember the little scandal around these parts when Orsillo said on a broadcast that he had no idea what wRC+ stands for? Well you don't have to cite it explicitly on the air, but if your job is to let the audience know what matters to winning baseball games, you ought to understand the best metrics for judging that. Dave O'Brien falls flat on this constantly. E.g., he dumped on ERod for his bad BABIP luck streak in 2021, apparently totally oblivious as to what an actual bad luck pitching performance looks like. That's just misleading communication. Like he doesn't need to say "the BABIP has been flerbittyjibbet and the xwOBA allowed is in the blurbety percentile," but he could look at the BABIP stat and say "ERod's given up some weak contact but hitters have just gotten lucky off him in his last few starts."
ADD: Forgot the point I was trying to make here, which is that I think an increasing number of announcers are actually pretty good at this (O'Brien and Orsillo notwithstanding), and I don't think the average fan is being driven away from the game by the fact that there are some weirdos out there talking about xwOBA or whatever. I think stuff like the slowing pace of play was a much bigger factor, which they've now addressed.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 20, 2023 10:00:05 GMT -5
Updating ...
Sox have gone 5-0 over a 6-day span, while their 6 rivals for three the wild cards spots have collectively gone 10-20. Sox gained 4.5 games on the 0-4 Yanks, 4.5 on the 1-5 Astros, 3.5 on the 2-4 3 Jays, 3 on the 2-3 O's, 2.5 on the 2-2 Mariners, and 2.0 on the 3-2 Angels.
That's a pretty good week, so far.
Sox now trail the Yanks by 1.5 games, the Astros by 1, and the Jays by 0.5.
And the Sox are now 3rd in the AL in Schedule-Adjusted BaseRuns Standings. And they are still 2nd in pitching starting May 26 (4th in SP, 3rd in relief).
They are tied for 6th in MLB in b-Refs SRS (Schedule-Adjusted run differential. The AL is killing the NL in Run Differential, but that's because the NL teams have been lousy at turning raw results into runs.)
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 20, 2023 10:23:16 GMT -5
After last night, since May 1st Casas has a 125 wRC+ a BB% of 14.3 and a K% of 23.8. His slash line is .264/.367/.456, he's also positive in fWAR on the season now. If they can get his defense up to where it needs to be I'd say I'm pretty confident we have a starting caliber 1st for the next 5+ years with him. Since May 3:
.270 / .371 / .467 (143 PA)
HOWEVER ... expected line:
.251 / .360 / .553.
That's an actual .365 wOBA but .398 expected.
He's gotten some cheap singles but has lousy luck on his power blasts (confirming observations that folks have noted).
24 guys have had 100 PA at 1B in this time period. The xwOBA leaders:
Freddie Freeman (.432 / .422) Triston Casas (.397 / .360) Pete Alonso (.383 / .360)
Then Matt Olson and Yandy Diaz.
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