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6/19-6/22 Red Sox @ Twins Series Thread
shagworthy
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My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,586
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 20, 2023 11:13:12 GMT -5
I tend to root for the guys like Reyes, he's not going to maintain a .300 average all year, but he made 2 plays during that game that saved runs. He always seems to be in the right place in the right time.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 20, 2023 11:19:32 GMT -5
Arbitrary end points theatre, Jarren Duran has Adjusted™ edition:
In his last 10 games, Duran has hit:
.560 OBP .478 AVE (11-for-23 - with 5 doubles, 4 RBI) 1.234 OPS
To date: .300 AVE/.360 OBP/.467 SLG 123 wRC+
Play the man every day.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 20, 2023 11:27:29 GMT -5
Arbitrary end points theatre, Jarren Duran has Adjusted™ edition: In his last 10 games, Duran has hit: .560 OBP .478 AVE (11-for-23 - with 5 doubles, 4 RBI) 1.234 OPS To date: .300 AVE/.360 OBP/.467 SLG 123 wRC+ Play the man every day. He has a 134 wRC+ against righties and a 67 wRC+ vs. lefties. Meanwhile, Refsnyder has a 179 wRC+ against lefties. I am more than happy with their sitting Duran against lefties (and the people who were objecting to pinch-hitting Refsnyder for Duran yesterday were nuts). That's especially the case because Duran has a lot of value as someone you can bring in late in the game as a pinch runner.
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Post by sam01 on Jun 20, 2023 11:34:49 GMT -5
They are starting to pull you back in again. The top 3 starters are as good as it gets. If they had a healthy Sale, I'd buy in completely as a contender. The other problem with their top 3 is that Whitlock has been on the IL at least 4 times the past 2 years. Paxton's questionable durability concerns are well documented. Bello has only pitched 150 innings once in his career. So he'll start getting monitored with his innings (also because he's young). The good news is the bullpen looks like a strength with Pivetta, Murphy, Winkowski, and Martin having a all-star caliber performance since he's come off the IL a month ago. The lineup looks up and down, but Turner, Casas, Devers are all heating up. Verdugo, Duran, and Massa been solid mainly all year. Summary- This all could still fall apart in a hurry rotation wise, but if they stay healthy until Sale and Story are back, they could be legit contenders.
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Post by sam01 on Jun 20, 2023 11:39:13 GMT -5
Arbitrary end points theatre, Jarren Duran has Adjusted™ edition: In his last 10 games, Duran has hit: .560 OBP .478 AVE (11-for-23 - with 5 doubles, 4 RBI) 1.234 OPS To date: .300 AVE/.360 OBP/.467 SLG 123 wRC+ Play the man every day. He has a 134 wRC+ against righties and a 67 wRC+ vs. lefties. Meanwhile, Refsnyder has a 179 wRC+ against lefties. I am more than happy with their sitting Duran against lefties (and the people who were objecting to pinch-hitting Refsnyder for Duran yesterday were nuts). That's especially the case because Duran has a lot of value as someone you can bring in late in the game as a pinch runner. The problem is Duval figures into the equation and is taking away a good amount of at bats against RHP for Duran.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 20, 2023 11:57:24 GMT -5
He has a 134 wRC+ against righties and a 67 wRC+ vs. lefties. Meanwhile, Refsnyder has a 179 wRC+ against lefties. I am more than happy with their sitting Duran against lefties (and the people who were objecting to pinch-hitting Refsnyder for Duran yesterday were nuts). That's especially the case because Duran has a lot of value as someone you can bring in late in the game as a pinch runner. The problem is Duval figures into the equation and is taking away a good amount of at bats against RHP for Duran. FWIW Duvall (SSS) has reverse splits this season, and for his career is basically neutral righty/lefty. My take is Duvall and Turner are both old, switch off sitting one of those guys against RHP with an occasional off day for one of Duran, Verdugo, Yoshida, Casas, Devers. Everyone can get regular PT.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 20, 2023 12:24:38 GMT -5
After last night, since May 1st Casas has a 125 wRC+ a BB% of 14.3 and a K% of 23.8. His slash line is .264/.367/.456, he's also positive in fWAR on the season now. If they can get his defense up to where it needs to be I'd say I'm pretty confident we have a starting caliber 1st for the next 5+ years with him. Since May 3: .270 / .371 / .467 (143 PA) HOWEVER ... expected line: .251 / .360 / .553. That's an actual .365 wOBA but .398 expected.
He's gotten some cheap singles but has lousy luck on his power blasts (confirming observations that folks have noted). 24 guys have had 100 PA at 1B in this time period. The xwOBA leaders: Freddie Freeman (.432 / .422) Triston Casas (.397 / .360) Pete Alonso (.383 / .360)
Then Matt Olson and Yandy Diaz.
His batting avg on balls-in-play is (finally) starting to creep up there. Dude absolutely crushes baseballs when he gets hold of them. I'm waiting for the third missile - this one a single off the left field wall. So far he's blistered the center and right field walls with one-baggers that caromed right back to defenders.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jun 20, 2023 12:46:38 GMT -5
Arbitrary end points theatre, Jarren Duran has Adjusted™ edition: In his last 10 games, Duran has hit: .560 OBP .478 AVE (11-for-23 - with 5 doubles, 4 RBI) 1.234 OPS To date: .300 AVE/.360 OBP/.467 SLG 123 wRC+ Play the man every day. He has a 134 wRC+ against righties and a 67 wRC+ vs. lefties. Meanwhile, Refsnyder has a 179 wRC+ against lefties. I am more than happy with their sitting Duran against lefties ( and the people who were objecting to pinch-hitting Refsnyder for Duran yesterday were nuts). That's especially the case because Duran has a lot of value as someone you can bring in late in the game as a pinch runner. I didn't think he should lead off against Lopez due to their respective high strike out rates. Boy was i wrong on that one ! As far as pinch hitting Ref for Duran, I stand on no way. You don't pull a guy with three hits and a big smile ! He was locked in for sure. Great point about Duran's value as a late game weapon, which I fully agree with. Whether he starts or not, he should have an opportunity to impact every game at some point.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 20, 2023 13:17:09 GMT -5
Arbitrary end points theatre, Jarren Duran has Adjusted™ edition: In his last 10 games, Duran has hit: .560 OBP .478 AVE (11-for-23 - with 5 doubles, 4 RBI) 1.234 OPS To date: .300 AVE/.360 OBP/.467 SLG 123 wRC+ Play the man every day. He has a 134 wRC+ against righties and a 67 wRC+ vs. lefties. Meanwhile, Refsnyder has a 179 wRC+ against lefties. I am more than happy with their sitting Duran against lefties (and the people who were objecting to pinch-hitting Refsnyder for Duran yesterday were nuts). That's especially the case because Duran has a lot of value as someone you can bring in late in the game as a pinch runner. Only one way to get better at this. And if you buy into the idea that they're a playoff team, then there will come a moment (or moments) where he'll likely have to face a very good lefty in a high pressure situation. Might as well get some reps now. I agree with Sam01 - the mitigating factor right now is Duvall. Not sure how much longer the "still in spring training" caveat will hold. Some guys go a whole season and can't find their timing. Also, Yoshida should probably be a DH most of the time, and certainly away from Fenway, but Turner's presence and hot bat negates that.
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 20, 2023 13:52:01 GMT -5
Can someone explain to me how Duran's arm has been 65th to 75th percentile for arm strength for the past three years? SP.com has him at "below average arm strength" but passable. The eye test is like a shade in front of Johnny Damon.
Statcast averages a player's very fastest throws to arrive at this number, so I can see that inflating outfielders' percentiles. Still, Duran's arm is rated at 87.1 mph, which is only one slot away from the median among qualified CF. Does Duran actually have an arm that's middle of the road for a CF? Or are his very hardest throws bounced in so we're not really seeing what shows up in the data? Or is it that he gets a running start on his fastest throws from CF and his foot speed makes his arm play up?
Maybe it's just how he holds the ball when he's preparing to throw that makes it look like he's never thrown a baseball before, and that makes me assume his arm is worse than it is? Such a mystery lol
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Post by incandenza on Jun 20, 2023 14:12:05 GMT -5
He has a 134 wRC+ against righties and a 67 wRC+ vs. lefties. Meanwhile, Refsnyder has a 179 wRC+ against lefties. I am more than happy with their sitting Duran against lefties (and the people who were objecting to pinch-hitting Refsnyder for Duran yesterday were nuts). That's especially the case because Duran has a lot of value as someone you can bring in late in the game as a pinch runner. Only one way to get better at this. And if you buy into the idea that they're a playoff team, then there will come a moment (or moments) where he'll likely have to face a very good lefty in a high pressure situation. Might as well get some reps now. I agree with Sam01 - the mitigating factor right now is Duvall. Not sure how much longer the "still in spring training" caveat will hold. Some guys go a whole season and can't find their timing. Also, Yoshida should probably be a DH most of the time, and certainly away from Fenway, but Turner's presence and hot bat negates that. I'd agree if it were just like a RH Tapia pinch hitting for him, but they happen to have an outfielder who's been Mike Trout against lefties for the last year and a half.
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Post by patford on Jun 20, 2023 14:25:52 GMT -5
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 20, 2023 14:44:34 GMT -5
Well, .218 leads the team among qualified hitters, and they only have two qualified hitters. Their offense definitely doesn't look scary right now, though.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 20, 2023 15:09:53 GMT -5
Arbitrary end points theatre, Jarren Duran has Adjusted™ edition: In his last 10 games, Duran has hit: .560 OBP .478 AVE (11-for-23 - with 5 doubles, 4 RBI) 1.234 OPS To date: .300 AVE/.360 OBP/.467 SLG 123 wRC+ Play the man every day. Annnnd, after going 3-3 with 3 doubles and 2 RBI, Cora sits Duran. Verdugo RF Turner DH Devers 3B Yoshida LF Duvall CF Casas 1B K. Hernández 2B Wong C Reyes SS
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 20, 2023 15:21:15 GMT -5
Arbitrary end points theatre, Jarren Duran has Adjusted™ edition: In his last 10 games, Duran has hit: .560 OBP .478 AVE (11-for-23 - with 5 doubles, 4 RBI) 1.234 OPS To date: .300 AVE/.360 OBP/.467 SLG 123 wRC+ Play the man every day. Annnnd, after going 3-3 with 3 doubles and 2 RBI, Cora sits Duran. Verdugo RF Turner DH Devers 3B Yoshida LF Duvall CF Casas 1B K. Hernández 2B Wong C Reyes SS Ugh what the heck Cora. Duvall should not be playing this much vs righty SPs. At least not while Duran is scorching hot.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 20, 2023 15:21:45 GMT -5
I wouldn't mind a "save Cora from himself" trade of Adam Duvall for anything at all. Kiké would then actually have a role on the team.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 20, 2023 15:29:16 GMT -5
Arbitrary end points theatre, Jarren Duran has Adjusted™ edition: In his last 10 games, Duran has hit: .560 OBP .478 AVE (11-for-23 - with 5 doubles, 4 RBI) 1.234 OPS To date: .300 AVE/.360 OBP/.467 SLG 123 wRC+ Play the man every day. Annnnd, after going 3-3 with 3 doubles and 2 RBI, Cora sits Duran. Verdugo RF Turner DH Devers 3B Yoshida LF Duvall CF Casas 1B K. Hernández 2B Wong C Reyes SS Absurd to sit Duran today unless he's sore or something.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 20, 2023 15:34:15 GMT -5
Never in my life have I seen a manager I’ve his hottest hitters with the regularity Cora has over the years. If you’re not a star player and you have a good game, you might as well make plans the next day because you won’t have to work.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 20, 2023 15:38:23 GMT -5
If they had a crystal ball and knew Jarren Duran would have 1.5 WAR before the half-way point of the season, there's 0% chance they would have signed Duvall. But now that we're here, you'd hope that the manager would realize the guy who is gone in 3 months needs to be the one to eat s***, not the guy who is gonna be here for 5 more years.
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Post by sam01 on Jun 20, 2023 15:50:57 GMT -5
I wouldn't mind a "save Cora from himself" trade of Adam Duvall for anything at all. Kiké would then actually have a role on the team. Yup I saw it coming one page ago. A Refsnyder/Duran platoon seems ideal. Then you have a aging veteran who the Sox pumped up as a CF before the season. Cora is always going to favor the veterans. The idea of having too many players and rotating them seems good on paper, until you realize ond of your best hitters is on the bench against RHP.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 20, 2023 15:54:11 GMT -5
A lot of people here seem upset about Cora playing the guy with the 187 wRC+ and the 118 Zips projection over the guy with the 123/98 (who is also more useful as a pinch hitter or pinch runner late in the game).
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 20, 2023 15:57:16 GMT -5
I thought Ober was a lefty when I saw the lineup smdh
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Post by Guidas on Jun 20, 2023 16:10:43 GMT -5
A lot of people here seem upset about Cora playing the guy with the 187 wRC+ and the 118 Zips projection over the guy with the 123/98 (who is also more useful as a pinch hitter or pinch runner late in the game). The guy with the 187 wRC+ has a .172 AVE .294 OBP .241 SLG with 11Ks in 29 PAs since he was re-activated. This team needs wins now to crawl back into the Wild Card hunt and avoid selling off at the deadline. Meanwhile, how long does the "this is basically his spring training" trope go on for Duvall?
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shagworthy
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My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,586
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Post by shagworthy on Jun 20, 2023 16:14:06 GMT -5
He has a 134 wRC+ against righties and a 67 wRC+ vs. lefties. Meanwhile, Refsnyder has a 179 wRC+ against lefties. I am more than happy with their sitting Duran against lefties (and the people who were objecting to pinch-hitting Refsnyder for Duran yesterday were nuts). That's especially the case because Duran has a lot of value as someone you can bring in late in the game as a pinch runner. Only one way to get better at this. And if you buy into the idea that they're a playoff team, then there will come a moment (or moments) where he'll likely have to face a very good lefty in a high pressure situation. Might as well get some reps now. I agree with Sam01 - the mitigating factor right now is Duvall. Not sure how much longer the "still in spring training" caveat will hold. Some guys go a whole season and can't find their timing. Also, Yoshida should probably be a DH most of the time, and certainly away from Fenway, but Turner's presence and hot bat negates that. I haven't looked at the statistics, so please someone clean me up, but I feel like Yoshida hits better when he plays in the field. Some guys need that divided focus not to get too in their head in the box.
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 20, 2023 16:16:28 GMT -5
A lot of people here seem upset about Cora playing the guy with the 187 wRC+ and the 118 Zips projection over the guy with the 123/98 (who is also more useful as a pinch hitter or pinch runner late in the game). I'm torn on it myself, but this logjam in CF does make me think we're well set up for another buy / sell deadline. I read a good comment somewhere today about the fact that we have three startable CF at the moment in a league where CF can be tough to come by, so it really would make sense to move one to a team in need. And if you're going to move anyone the guy to move is probably Duvall; Duran has a lot of team control remaining, Kiké is a pending FA but has the versatility you'd want in a utility guy, and Duvall is a pending FA and should bring back more than Kiké.
I do think people are being a little quick to discount Duvall, though. He was injured for quite and while and has only played 9 games since he's been back. And Duran also has more value off the bench than Duvall, since that lets him pinch run if needed.
Edit: There is an argument to be made that keeping Duvall is important because we need RHH power, and that trading Kiké makes more sense. Fine. If all are healthy, though, let's trade one. Kiké is a lot more valuable if he can play CF. I don't care about his versatility if he's a 3rd option in CF and is mostly relegated to 2B/SS, where he is poor.
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