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6/27-6/29 Red Sox vs. Marlins Series Thread
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 27, 2023 13:48:51 GMT -5
Serious question: where do you put the star-level free agents? You have Casas, Story, Mayer, Devers in the IF. Yoshida, Duran in the OF. I assume you resign Verdugo. And this not to mention a few OFers in the system. So there are certainly positions that could be better, but you’d have to replace an occupant. If the Red Sox' worst problem in the next few years is that they can't find a single spot on the roster that would be improved by a star FA, they won't have any problems at all exactly
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Post by incandenza on Jun 27, 2023 14:03:06 GMT -5
This seems like it's recapitulating the same issue I was trying to get at with manfred: if this looks to you like an 82-86 win team for the indefinite future even before you factor in their ability to add star-level free agents, then that's by definition a better than average forecast. But it's true that it doesn't look too impressive if you compare to how the future looked in 2003 or 2016.
Serious question: where do you put the star-level free agents? You have Casas, Story, Mayer, Devers in the IF. Yoshida, Duran in the OF. I assume you resign Verdugo. And this not to mention a few OFers in the system. So there are certainly positions that could be better, but you’d have to replace an occupant. I do think that's kind of a tough question. A simple answer is: the starting rotation. My own personal #1 wish for next offseason is a top of the rotation starter, maybe Nola. There are hardly any top-shelf position player free agents in the next couple of FA classes anyway. But spending big on a starter is admittedly such a high-risk proposition.
I think they could add to the outfield either by replacing Verdugo or pushing Yoshida to DH, but with who? There are no 2024 or 2025 FAs who even look better than Verdugo.
They could upgrade at catcher. Maybe they'll finally get around to trading for Sean Murphy...
But also I don't have the sort of disdain some others do for patching the roster with mid-tier free agents. That's been part of the formula for every successful Red Sox team, and it's something Bloom has been especially good at, so why not keep playing to their strengths? Meanwhile, if they keep adding young talent as they're starting to do (Whitlock, Houck, Bello, Casas, etc.) and lock them up as they're starting to do (Devers, Whitlock) they'll be in good shape.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 27, 2023 14:07:29 GMT -5
Serious question: where do you put the star-level free agents? You have Casas, Story, Mayer, Devers in the IF. Yoshida, Duran in the OF. I assume you resign Verdugo. And this not to mention a few OFers in the system. So there are certainly positions that could be better, but you’d have to replace an occupant. I do think that's kind of a tough question. A simple answer is: the starting rotation. My own personal #1 wish for next offseason is a top of the rotation starter, maybe Nola. There are hardly any top-shelf position player free agents in the next couple of FA classes anyway. But spending big on a starter is admittedly such a high-risk proposition.
I think they could add to the outfield either by replacing Verdugo or pushing Yoshida to DH, but with who? There are no 2024 or 2025 FAs who even look better than Verdugo.
They could upgrade at catcher. Maybe they'll finally get around to trading for Sean Murphy...
But also I don't have the sort of disdain some others do for patching the roster with mid-tier free agents. That's been part of the formula for every successful Red Sox team, and it's something Bloom has been especially good at, so why not keep playing to their strengths? Meanwhile, if they keep adding young talent as they're starting to do (Whitlock, Houck, Bello, Casas, etc.) and lock them up as they're starting to do (Devers, Whitlock) they'll be in good shape.
You're forgetting the biggest fish of not named Ohtani and a guy I would love to see in the lineup Juan Soto in 2025. That being said I'm not holding my breath he becomes a Sox.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 27, 2023 14:11:19 GMT -5
Serious question: where do you put the star-level free agents? You have Casas, Story, Mayer, Devers in the IF. Yoshida, Duran in the OF. I assume you resign Verdugo. And this not to mention a few OFers in the system. So there are certainly positions that could be better, but you’d have to replace an occupant. If the Red Sox' worst problem in the next few years is that they can't find a single spot on the roster that would be improved by a star FA, they won't have any problems at all Yeah this, or if they could improve a position but it would mean they have an extra good player on the roster, well that's what trades are for. And every team can always use another great pitcher.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 27, 2023 14:12:56 GMT -5
Bobby Bombs down to make room for Verdugo
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Post by incandenza on Jun 27, 2023 14:26:34 GMT -5
I do think that's kind of a tough question. A simple answer is: the starting rotation. My own personal #1 wish for next offseason is a top of the rotation starter, maybe Nola. There are hardly any top-shelf position player free agents in the next couple of FA classes anyway. But spending big on a starter is admittedly such a high-risk proposition.
I think they could add to the outfield either by replacing Verdugo or pushing Yoshida to DH, but with who? There are no 2024 or 2025 FAs who even look better than Verdugo.
They could upgrade at catcher. Maybe they'll finally get around to trading for Sean Murphy...
But also I don't have the sort of disdain some others do for patching the roster with mid-tier free agents. That's been part of the formula for every successful Red Sox team, and it's something Bloom has been especially good at, so why not keep playing to their strengths? Meanwhile, if they keep adding young talent as they're starting to do (Whitlock, Houck, Bello, Casas, etc.) and lock them up as they're starting to do (Devers, Whitlock) they'll be in good shape.
You're forgetting the biggest fish of not named Ohtani and a guy I would love to see in the lineup Juan Soto in 2025. That being said I'm not holding my breath he becomes a Sox. Ah, yes I did forget about Soto! I wouldn't hold my breath either, simply because I imagine he'll have a lot of suitors, but I don't see why'd he'd be especially unlikely to wind up with the Red Sox; notably, he'll be exactly the same age Devers was when they signed him to his big extension.
ADD: Dammit, now I'm thinking about it...
2026 lineup: Wong (Arb 1) Casas (Arb 1)
Story (23 million) Devers (31 million) Mayer (pre-arb) Duran (Arb 1) Soto (35 million?) Rafaela/Abreu/mid-tier FA (8 million) Yoshida (19 million)
Nola (30 million) Bello (Arb 1) Whitlock (5 million) Houck (Arb 2) Drohan/Crawford/mid-tier FA (10 million)
Bullpen (40 million or whatever)
They could afford this...
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,824
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Post by nomar on Jun 27, 2023 14:36:59 GMT -5
Hopefully teams keep giving idiotic contracts for one more offseason then Boston can hold their ammo for Soto. Just an absurdly high floor bat and he’ll hit FA young. They can’t let the Yankees grab him that’s my big fear.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,053
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Post by cdj on Jun 27, 2023 14:37:39 GMT -5
Hopefully teams keep giving idiotic contracts for one more offseason then Boston can hold their ammo for Soto. Just an absurdly high floor bat and he’ll hit FA young. They can’t let the Yankees grab him that’s my big fear. 78 home run season in that clown box
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 27, 2023 14:41:40 GMT -5
Hopefully teams keep giving idiotic contracts for one more offseason then Boston can hold their ammo for Soto. Just an absurdly high floor bat and he’ll hit FA young. They can’t let the Yankees grab him that’s my big fear. The good news is they'll still have $150.83 Mil tied up in just Judge, Cole, Stanton, Rodon and LeMahieu in 2025 unless Cole opts out which is possible I suppose. Don't see them tying up another 40 mil in one player anytime soon. Edit: Oh ya looks like they'll still be paying Hicks 11.5M in 2025 ha, make that $162M on just 6 players and in the case of Stanton, LeMahieu and Hicks getting pretty much nothing out of them and who knows on Rodon either for that matter. I'll stop short of saying wow the Yankees are kind of screwed coming soon since I feel like I've said that a few times the past 10 years or so only for them to somehow come out the other side just fine but it's going to be a real tall task to build a WS caliber team with those types of albatross contracts on the books.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 27, 2023 14:52:19 GMT -5
This seems like it's recapitulating the same issue I was trying to get at with manfred: if this looks to you like an 82-86 win team for the indefinite future even before you factor in their ability to add star-level free agents, then that's by definition a better than average forecast. But it's true that it doesn't look too impressive if you compare to how the future looked in 2003 or 2016.
Serious question: where do you put the star-level free agents? You have Casas, Story, Mayer, Devers in the IF. Yoshida, Duran in the OF. I assume you resign Verdugo. And this not to mention a few OFers in the system. So there are certainly positions that could be better, but you’d have to replace an occupant. Maybe some of those controllable guys who are good to above average players get traded away for more prospects or in a multiplayer package for a star and then you augment with a star free agent or two? This is why President of Baseball Ops get paid the big bucks. It's also why finding talent wherever you can better than other teams do it is so important. A small number of teams are really good at this (LAD, TAM, HOU) and others seem to be good at finding certain kinds of players. Everyone else just playing catch-up or the imitation game with LAD, TAM and HOU and trying to see what sticks. Meanwhile those three and maybe one or two others are innovating at a level above everyone else.
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 27, 2023 15:01:05 GMT -5
Kiké Hernandez at 2B and Hamilton at SS. My eyes are blessed.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 27, 2023 15:05:39 GMT -5
Duran LF Turner DH Verdugo RF Devers 3B Duvall CF Casas 1B K. Hernández 2B D. Hamilton SS Wong C
Whitlock P
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 27, 2023 15:14:16 GMT -5
You're forgetting the biggest fish of not named Ohtani and a guy I would love to see in the lineup Juan Soto in 2025. That being said I'm not holding my breath he becomes a Sox. Ah, yes I did forget about Soto! I wouldn't hold my breath either, simply because I imagine he'll have a lot of suitors, but I don't see why'd he'd be especially unlikely to wind up with the Red Sox; notably, he'll be exactly the same age Devers was when they signed him to his big extension.
ADD: Dammit, now I'm thinking about it...
2026 lineup: Wong (Arb 1) Casas (Arb 1)
Story (23 million) Devers (31 million) Mayer (pre-arb) Duran (Arb 1) Soto (35 million?) Rafaela/Abreu/mid-tier FA (8 million) Yoshida (19 million)
Nola (30 million) Bello (Arb 1) Whitlock (5 million) Houck (Arb 2) Drohan/Crawford/mid-tier FA (10 million)
Bullpen (40 million or whatever)
They could afford this...
Soto probably gets closer to 45 mil than 35 but split the difference and say 40. Then when you take into account the luxury tax will be 241 million for 2025 and 244 for 2026. Stay under the luxury tax next year and keep your chips in hand to push all in starting 2025 after you get one more season to assess guys like Mayer/Yorke/Duran/Casas/Rafaela/Bleis/Anthony and everyone else in the farm, you get the picture. It's most definitely do able.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 27, 2023 15:14:26 GMT -5
You're forgetting the biggest fish of not named Ohtani and a guy I would love to see in the lineup Juan Soto in 2025. That being said I'm not holding my breath he becomes a Sox. Ah, yes I did forget about Soto! I wouldn't hold my breath either, simply because I imagine he'll have a lot of suitors, but I don't see why'd he'd be especially unlikely to wind up with the Red Sox; notably, he'll be exactly the same age Devers was when they signed him to his big extension. ADD: Dammit, now I'm thinking about it... 2026 lineup: Wong (Arb 1) Casas (Arb 1)
Story (23 million) Devers (31 million) Mayer (pre-arb) Duran (Arb 1) Soto (35 million?) Rafaela/Abreu/mid-tier FA (8 million) Yoshida (19 million) NolaUrias (35 million)
[/b][/div] Bello (Arb 1) Whitlock (5 million) Houck (Arb 2) Drohan/Crawford/mid-tier FA (10 million) Bullpen (40 million or whatever) They could afford this*...
[/quote] Also, let's not forget that the guys not named Devers and Story have affordable salaries and control, which makes some of them prime trade-bait in packages to pick up All Star players. This includes someone like Mayer or Casas, who may be above average but who could be packaged to get a star and may even be used in such a deal because there's someone else in the system who can reasonably replace his performance. Not suggesting they deal off Mayer or Casas per se, only these are the kinds of guys who could be used to get you someone better in a position of need, if not their position explicitly. It's all part of the calculus. *They can afford more than this. The luxury tax is a suggestion, and a cost of doing business if you can get a controllable impact player or two in his prime.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jun 27, 2023 15:42:07 GMT -5
Duran LF Turner DH Verdugo RF Devers 3B Duvall CF Casas 1B K. Hernández 2B D. Hamilton SS Wong C Whitlock P Huh, I usually am supportive of Duvall in the lineup for power and defense, but, he is 0-13 in his career vs. Alcantara. Masa sitting. I am scratching my head over this one.
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 27, 2023 15:43:21 GMT -5
Duran LF Turner DH Verdugo RF Devers 3B Duvall CF Casas 1B K. Hernández 2B D. Hamilton SS Wong C Whitlock P Huh, I usually am supportive of Duvall in the lineup for power and defense, but, he is 0-13 in his career vs. Alcantara. Masa sitting. I am scratching my head over this one. I'm assuming this is more about getting Masa the day off after travelling than it is about playing Duvall.
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Post by Smittyw on Jun 27, 2023 16:05:12 GMT -5
Just personally, for reasons that would make a much longer post, I have a hard time caring that the Red Sox were bad in 2020, and an even harder time blaming that on Chaim Bloom. Ymmv, obviously, but from me, he gets a near-complete mulligan for that clusterf### of events, and any fair evaluation of his performance starts with 2021.
Seen in that light, that "great depression" looks more like a lousy year and a half.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 27, 2023 16:07:44 GMT -5
Cotillo and McAdam dropped a pod discussing some of the issues in this thread and others, including: - Is Bloom or Cora (or both) on the hot seat? - Are they buyers or sellers at the trade deadline, or, (perhaps worse) both, like last year? - Who has more front office support - Bloom or Cora? Interesting comments regarding Sam Kennedy vs. Henry and Werner. - Team construction going forward and Story's role going forward. - Rotation issues. - Do you keep Paxton and perhaps extend him, or deal him at the deadline? Hint: We're not the only ones who think he may fetch a top 100 prospect (personal aside, can we call this keep/extend/or trade question "The Paxton Paradox"?).
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 27, 2023 16:09:57 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Jun 27, 2023 16:12:16 GMT -5
Huh, I usually am supportive of Duvall in the lineup for power and defense, but, he is 0-13 in his career vs. Alcantara. Masa sitting. I am scratching my head over this one. I'm assuming this is more about getting Masa the day off after travelling than it is about playing Duvall. Cora made a statement a couple days ago about needing to get Duvall daily at bats "to get him going." This doesn't exclude getting Yoshida an extra day of rest, but it seemed to indicate Cora thought Duvall was on the cusp of a break-through. Perhaps, like an old lawn mower, Cora sees Duvall needing just a few more pulls of the cord to get the old Briggs and Stratton rumbling back to life. Gamblers Fallacy, or legit observation? Only time will tell...
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 27, 2023 16:18:30 GMT -5
I'm assuming this is more about getting Masa the day off after travelling than it is about playing Duvall. Cora made a statement a couple days ago about needing to get Duvall daily at bats "to get him going." This doesn't exclude getting Yoshida an extra day of rest, but it seemed to indicate Cora thought Duvall was on the cusp of a break-through. Perhaps, like an old lawn mower, Cora sees Duvall needing just a few more pulls of the cord to get the old Briggs and Stratton rumbling back to life. Gamblers Fallacy, or legit observation? Only time will tell... His xwOBA has been trending in the right direction though still not in great territory
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Post by Guidas on Jun 27, 2023 16:25:28 GMT -5
Cora made a statement a couple days ago about needing to get Duvall daily at bats "to get him going." This doesn't exclude getting Yoshida an extra day of rest, but it seemed to indicate Cora thought Duvall was on the cusp of a break-through. Perhaps, like an old lawn mower, Cora sees Duvall needing just a few more pulls of the cord to get the old Briggs and Stratton rumbling back to life. Gamblers Fallacy, or legit observation? Only time will tell... His xwOBA has been trending in the right direction though still not in great territory His return numbers have been pretty ugly. Here's hoping he catches fire soon. Still wondering why the hell Cora keeps slotting him in the 5th or 6th position in the line-up (or Refsnyder in the lead-off spot when he's inexplicably starting against RHP) when he should probably be batting 9th at this point.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 27, 2023 16:36:45 GMT -5
His xwOBA has been trending in the right direction though still not in great territory His return numbers have been pretty ugly. Here's hoping he catches fire soon. Still wondering why the hell Cora keeps slotting him in the 5th or 6th position in the line-up (or Refsnyder in the lead-off spot when he's inexplicably starting against RHP) when he should probably be batting 9th at this point. Agree on the lineup, not sure why he needs to slot into the middle of the order. He's been bad since he got back but even if you ignore his hot streak at the start of the year he's historically been an above average (or about average depending on your date range) hitter, so there's no reason to expect him to stay as bad as he's been since his return either. And as I mentioned the xwOBA is moving in the right direction so they might be right that he's getting back into form. And hey in the last two games he has a 125 wRC+ so who knows.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jun 27, 2023 17:58:56 GMT -5
alright....they are still the Marlins and we are still the Red Sox. Also, this 21-18 home record...expletive....is way out of line.
Sweep !!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 27, 2023 18:08:47 GMT -5
I hope the Marlins are held to 4 singles tonight - all by Luis Arraez.
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