MLB Draft Day 3 (2023)

That guy sounds about as good of a bet as anyone else at this stage in the draft. I'd rather take a shot on a guy like that then random unranked dudes but at the same end I guess gotta just trust the sox scouting to find some diamonds in the rough hopefully

Some of the top college players left on BAs top 500:

TJ Guys:
Tanner Witt- RHP Texas- Back pitching on the Cape, I can see him being one of the 1st picks today.

Luke Fox-LHP Had TJ after fall ball, had a huge fall with impressive pitch data

Joseph Gonzalez- RHP Auburn - Unlike most of the Ps remaining, his command is plus. He didn't have TJ, but did have shoulder surgery after 1 start this year. Another CMNT team alum.

RPs:
Nigel Belgrave- RHP Maryland (Auburn, MA native)- Slider shows really promising spin rate data, too many walks, but a cutter gives him 3 solid pitches for a RP if you can straighten out the command

Simon Miller RHP UTSA- He's been starting on the Cape, 17 Ks in 10 IP, D2 xfer, who's pitched 2 yrs at UTSA, hard to gauge their eligibility sometimes, but he's at least a 4 yr player, maybe even 5 yr. Think he'll be a name we see quick today. 2 pitches, heavy slider usage, and good riding FB.

Sam Knowlton- South Alabama- Might be the best pure arm left after Witt. FB up to 98, bad walk rate, had TJ in '22, another 6'7 P.

Terry Busse - RHP Ga Tech- Sox have drafted a Tech player and recruit already. Busse is 2 pitch RP, with a sinker, but promising slider.

Garrett Edwards RHP LSU- Got hurt early in the year, but classic power stuff RP, w a sweeper and good control. Big 6'5 frame where he could start if you can develop the changeup more, but would need to change the delivery, so prob a quick moving RP. Would be an ideal target today IMO.

Others
John West- RHP Boston College - Another 6'8 SP added velo this yr and took off in April. Good slider, change up working, and throws a sinker and 4 seam, thought he was def going back to school but with Mike Gambino leaving for Penn St, I wouldn't be surprised to see him pop. Late bloomer that focusing on P at BC for 1st time, lots of runway left with him, and uber athletic for that size.

Hayden Durke RHP Rice -not great results this summer but really good spin rate data, up to 96.5 at the combine

Bryson Hammer  LHP Dallas Baptish- Pitched at 3 different schools. Big K numbers, but too many walks, plus changeup, workable CB, and enough velo, not a big SP frame, but enough there to try as a SP but prob a RP where his stuff can play up. One of the highest remain Ps on BAs board.

Carson Montgomery RHP FSU- Was highly regarded out of HS, had a good yr in '22 and pitched for the CMNT, but lost command this year. Throws slider, cutter, change, and has a FB up to 97ish, but his FB got hammered this yr. Def enough there. Is in the xfer portal currently, so think he's signable.

LeBarron Johnson RHP Texas - Was mentioned yesterday by another poster. Come on strong at the end of the year and showed impressive slider. Throws a change and Fb, both avg, maybe even below currently, but there is more velo there and change up flashes enough usable traits. Soph eligible, so likely and over slot, heard whispers he is already committed back to Texas.

Max Carlson RHP UNC- Was highly regarded out of HS, like his brother Sam, who was a top 40 pick of Seattle, mostly FB. changeup, but has a slider. Good frame and delivery, command improved every year. I think there is more here than his UNC results, with a pro pitching program.

Josh Timmerman RHP Ohio St- Only 20, but played 2 yrs of Juco and 1 yr at OSU. Pitched really well on the Cape this summer, high spin slider, also throws a cutter and change. IVB fastball, think he is a $250Kish type signing.

Drew Conover- RHP Rutgers- Only 1 yr as a SP, but spin rate data on the FB and slider show promise. Needs to improve command, throws a cutter too, and is another big 6'5 frame, so starting potential is there.

Sam Highfill  RHP NC St- Was a huge reason why NC St made a big run in Ohmaha before they were thrown out due to the covid outbreak a couple of years back. Had a back injury last yr, and never got into a groove this year. When he's on, he's a good strike thrower with a sinker/cutter/curve combo that changes speeds well. Good guy to take a chance on.

Liam Sullivan LHP Georgia- Decent chance to start, with a 3 pitch mix, high spin slider solid command, and a big 6'6 250 frame. Reminds me a lot of Parker Messick from FSU who went in the 3rd round last yr. 

Will Carsten- RHP Oklahoma Another big 6'7 with a sinking FB in the low 90s. Struggled this yr and gave up 8 HRs in 41 IP, but if they want to revisit the big and tall section, someone that had a lot of success and opened eyes in Juco the year before. 

Ty Langenberg- RHP Iowa Not on BA's top 500, but came across a bookmarked tweet from last summer in a Cape league appearance where he his control and sinker were being highly touted, throws a good change, cutter, and a slider. Was pre-season D1 POY, and had a decent enough season. 

Ernie Day RHP Campbell- Camels are a bit of a pitching factory recently, already with 2 Ps drafted, and maybe 3 more today (Cade Boxrucker is another name to monitor) Day Pitching on the Cape and showing improved command this summer after a shaky spring Big SP frame, and getting up to 96 with Brewster, 4 pitch mix, former Juco as well, some helium here, I think.

Batters:
Jack Payton RHH C Louisville- This is surprising bc he's hit with the wood bat and has a chance to stay behind the plate, but could prob play OF. Louisville also has a stud freshman coming in as a C (their C lineage line is absurd!). BA has a note about him struggling with 92+ velo this yr, but was fine vs it last yr, maybe just get him some glasses and he'll be fine? Likely one of the 1st names off the board today.

Cam Clayton RHH SS Washington- True Soph, so he's an overslot guy, but had a big year for Washington and might stick at SS, but prob a 2B

Jack Moss LHH 1B Texas A&M- Big 6'5 frame, without the power though. Has a good idea at the plate and plate discipline is a plus.

Shane Lewis SH OF Troy- Hit 27 HRs this yr, but in his conference tourney and NCAAs really struggled with contact. Power is obvious, but he can also really run and play the OF pretty well, so there are plus tools here with the swing and miss.

Jace Grady- SH OF Dallas Baptist- Has been on radars for a while now, but never drafted. Undersized, but handles the bat well, with good contact traits, and hit 92+ velo very well. Can run well

Drew Butcher LHH OF USF- Big 6'5 frame with plus power. Can run and throws well, so can prob play CF in pro ball. Lot of swing and miss, but workable tools. Hit a walk off 3 yrs ago to get USF into the NCAAs where they won their regional as a 40+ loss 4 seed

Jim Jarvis LHH SS Alabama- Contact oriented without much power, but will play SS in pro ball, and runs well enough too.

Keaton Anthony RHH 1B Iowa- Big 6'4 frame, with good contact skills and approach AND power to go along with it. BA thinks he might be able to move to a corner OF spot, which give the R/R profile would be useful. Was suspended due to the Iowa baseball gambling incident this year. That aside, an ideal college bat to target today IMO. EDIT: He's actually playing on the Cape right now, and even pitched, he went to Iowa as a 2 way, but hadn't pitched much, does make me question his signability, where as I thought the suspension previously made him more signable.

Jared Dickey LHH OF Tennessee- Has always produced well enough at the plate, without any red flags in terms of contact. Had some injuries in '22, but was productive this yr.

Kris Armstrong 3B SH Jacksonville- 24 yrs old, been around for a while after starting his career at Florida. Had a huge Cape in '21, bad yr in '22, but then hit 22 hrs for the Dolphins this yr. Obviously old for the class, but enough bat there to take a late chance or become a priority UFDA imo.

There's a few more on BAs top 500, but those are ones that caught my eye.

I did notice about 10 or so Juco players (which I admittingly know very little about) with some intriguing profiles, and some of them didn't list D1 commitments yet, which was interesting. We'll see if there is another draft and follow plan or two.

EDIT: added 4 Ps

Very curious what this means, particularly given how Dean's season has gone.

It was a crude analogy, as most analogy’s are; I suppose that’s why people hate them. So yes I’m guilty of making it here, but I was comparing the aspect of injury. Both missed a year prior to their draft year. Although Dean had more success upon return.

I think the hope with Witt would be with more time his velocity and stuff returns. If it does, he has more potential than many of the college pitchers left on the board today I’d imagine.

I'm going to be slightly annoying and repost something I posted in one of the earlier draft threads because its most relevant now:



So here we are on Day 3 and this draft looks remarkably similar in strategy to last year's draft. That leads me to believe that the Red Sox have minimal (if any) $ to overslot today. The big question for me related to that is: Does Antonio Anderson get the Roman Anthony sized bonus (~$2.5M) or something more in line with Blaze Jordan ($1.75M)? My guess though is that there is a preference with a 20 round draft to have the majority of the bonus pool allocated for Day 1 and 2 picks and to draft at slot in Day 3 in addition to drafting a backup contingency plan should something fall through with planned spending.

The big thing to pay attention today is: Who do we select in Round 11? Is it a college player likely to accept the max slot offer (Marques Johnson) or at least near slot (Niko Kavadas)? If so, I think thats a strong sign that no substantial spending is planned for today. If that 11th round pick is a HS guy of any pedigree (doesn't have to be top 100 by any means but someone with some buzz), then there may be a little $ to play with (thinking something along the lines of a Brannon or Northcut type of bonus). One other important thing to remember: There will almost certainly be a HS pick or two today with some pedigree! That said, if those picks even occur in Round 13 or later, I'd view them purely as contingency picks unlikely to sign along the lines of 2022: Rd 13 - Gavin Kilen, Rd 14 - Travis Sanders, 2021: Rd 13: Zach Ehrhard, Rd 15: Payton Green. I think the HS pick has to be in Round 11 to have a shot of signing excluding some off-the-board HS picks in the last few rounds eager to start their career like Deundre Jones.

If you don't sign someone in the first 10 rounds, you lose the slot money. It can't be reallocated.

One small note - the 11-20 round bonus allotments were raised to $150,000 this year.

Haven't heard otherwise. My guess is it is still in place.

Why should it work like the NBA or NFL when the player development path (not to mention the salary path) is completely different?

In basketball, by age 24 a good player is probably negotiating a ten-figure salary. In baseball, by age 24 a good player is likely making the league minimum for the foreseeable future, if he’s been lucky enough to make the 40-man at all. Not to mention the whole “drafting high schoolers” aspect of it.

There’s just no way they’d ever change the bonus rules to “set at slot” without sweeping changes to the league coming with it.

And day 3 starts. Picks coming in quick.