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Post by Guidas on Jul 23, 2023 16:20:27 GMT -5
Lot's to be determined in the next week and a day, but I see a lot of people here opining about the haul in trade packages for Paxton. I've been considering the other question: Should the Sox extend him right now?
I know he's been broken for most of the last few years, but he's very effective right now, hitting high pitch counts with ease and holding velo and command late into appearances. He's also sung praises about the rehab and training staff with the Sox, liking the team and the city, and, like most players, would like some certainty for the next few years. It's a risky move, but if the terms are right, it could be well worth having a 2/3 like Paxton who is capable of pitching like a 1.
So what would be reasonable for both sides?
My proposal 2 years at $21M per year with an automatic option for a 3rd year at the same price if he pitches 150 or more innings in year 2 of the deal.
If I'm his agent I'd probably push for 3 years with that option for the 4th, but given his age, injury history, and a pretty flush pitching market coming up this winter, I think this offers a fair and reasonable proposal.
What to all y'all think? Too much, too little or just right?
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Post by pawtucketwalt on Jul 23, 2023 16:38:42 GMT -5
Agreed with maybe an innings kicker for next year also.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 23, 2023 16:42:44 GMT -5
That's too much. He's on pace to be worth about $21 million this year. Need to be turning a profit on his healthy years to make up for his not so healthy years. Plus the potential comp pick for letting him walk is a few million in vig that a deal needs to overcome.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 23, 2023 16:46:51 GMT -5
If Paxton stays healthy and pitches well the rest of the way I’d totally be comfortable offering a QO.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jul 23, 2023 17:31:23 GMT -5
Nope. Trade him for a good prospect and move on. His injury history is too great to go multiple years with him at the money he's probably going to want.
QO is fine though.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 23, 2023 19:42:01 GMT -5
QO
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Post by jdb on Jul 23, 2023 20:02:35 GMT -5
I don’t think we can go into next season with Sale and Paxton as 2/5s of the rotation. I’d QO him, go after a reliable guy like Montgomery and hope to get into the ballgame with Yamamoto.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 23, 2023 21:21:22 GMT -5
Absolutely not
Let someone else deal with his season long injuries
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 24, 2023 7:08:32 GMT -5
The Red Sox should be thrilled with some of their internal development this year (ie Duran, Bello, Casas (?), Crawford) but be realistic about their current season and who’s part of this future. I hate the term bridge year but this is part of their bridge to the future. They screwed up last years deadline by costing themselves draft position and money this year. They shouldn’t screw up this one by refusing to cash in on some of their chips (Paxton, Verdugo, Martin, Turner, etc). Of course they shouldn’t trade them just to trade them but if a deal is out there for any of them that can get top 100 type guys or lower level pitchers with high ceilings, I think they should take it. We will never know if that’s the case, but if they end up dealing away good prospects then it’s likely they didn’t try.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 24, 2023 7:40:22 GMT -5
Lot's to be determined in the next week and a day, but I see a lot of people here opining about the haul in trade packages for Paxton. I've been considering the other question: Should the Sox extend him right now? I know he's been broken for most of the last few years, but he's very effective right now, hitting high pitch counts with ease and holding velo and command late into appearances. He's also sung praises about the rehab and training staff with the Sox, liking the team and the city, and, like most players, would like some certainty for the next few years. It's a risky move, but if the terms are right, it could be well worth having a 2/3 like Paxton who is capable of pitching like a 1. So what would be reasonable for both sides? My proposal 2 years at $21M per year with an automatic option for a 3rd year at the same price if he pitches 150 or more innings in year 2 of the deal. If I'm his agent I'd probably push for 3 years with that option for the 4th, but given his age, injury history, and a pretty flush pitching market coming up this winter, I think this offers a fair and reasonable proposal. What to all y'all think? Too much, too little or just right? This is a rather polarizing topic on the board from what I've seen, I'm with you though. I'd float something like what Eovaldi got from Texas which is pretty much what you outlined. 2 guaranteed years with a 3rd year vesting option based off innings pitched in that 2nd year. Sure you run the risk that he gets hurt again but fingers crossed/knock on wood he looks healthy and strong right now. I think if his elbow holds up I don't see why he can't be a valuable starter the next 2 years and at the end of the day if not it's just 2 years. Obviously I don't want them to end up just eating money if he gets hurt but I think the risk/reward can be enough to make it worth it. |
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 24, 2023 7:57:49 GMT -5
Im two year 10 million per with an extra 6 million each year granted he pitches 130 innings or more. No third year
Even that scares me
This guy is an ultimate injury prone 35 year old SP
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Post by Guidas on Jul 24, 2023 8:33:00 GMT -5
Lot's to be determined in the next week and a day, but I see a lot of people here opining about the haul in trade packages for Paxton. I've been considering the other question: Should the Sox extend him right now? I know he's been broken for most of the last few years, but he's very effective right now, hitting high pitch counts with ease and holding velo and command late into appearances. He's also sung praises about the rehab and training staff with the Sox, liking the team and the city, and, like most players, would like some certainty for the next few years. It's a risky move, but if the terms are right, it could be well worth having a 2/3 like Paxton who is capable of pitching like a 1. So what would be reasonable for both sides? My proposal 2 years at $21M per year with an automatic option for a 3rd year at the same price if he pitches 150 or more innings in year 2 of the deal. If I'm his agent I'd probably push for 3 years with that option for the 4th, but given his age, injury history, and a pretty flush pitching market coming up this winter, I think this offers a fair and reasonable proposal. What to all y'all think? Too much, too little or just right? This is a rather polarizing topic on the board from what I've seen, I'm with you though. I'd float something like what Eovaldi got from Texas which is pretty much what you outlined. 2 guaranteed years with a 3rd year vesting option based off innings pitched in that 2nd year. Sure you run the risk that he gets hurt again but fingers crossed/knock on wood he looks healthy and strong right now. I think if his elbow holds up I don't see why he can't be a valuable starter the next 2 years and at the end of the day if not it's just 2 years. Obviously I don't want them to end up just eating money if he gets hurt but I think the risk/reward can be enough to make it worth it. I think so too, especially considering that with him currently on the Sox, they know his medicals better than the other 29 teams. |
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Post by huskies15 on Jul 24, 2023 9:17:26 GMT -5
I think you hear out what teams are willing to trade for him right now. If the offers are more appealing than Paxton playing on the QO or the draft pick (& bonus $) then you deal him this month. I don't think they should sign him to an extension unless it's very team friendly.
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carl4sox
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Post by carl4sox on Jul 24, 2023 13:36:09 GMT -5
Definitely extend him. We need good starting pitchers.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 24, 2023 14:12:59 GMT -5
QO is prob 20M$. But 1 year. I like that play.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 24, 2023 14:29:16 GMT -5
QO is prob 20M$. But 1 year. I like that play. Same. Good player on a 1 yr deal or a 2nd round comp pick. |
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Post by Guidas on Jul 24, 2023 14:56:33 GMT -5
QO is prob 20M$. But 1 year. I like that play. I love it. But if you're Paxton and his agent and he finishes the year as a 2.5+ fWAR starter in just 20ish starts this season, you know you can get more. Why take the QO? Gotta give to get. That's the risk part. |
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Post by seamus on Jul 24, 2023 16:16:44 GMT -5
I don't think they're going to trade him at the deadline, nor do I think they should. To me, the value of a playoff run and QO comp pick beats whatever prospect(s) they could get for a rental with a significant injury history, so I'm not worried about "losing him for nothing." I'd be content to ride out this year, offer the QO, and either get him for one year (broadly speaking, there's no such thing as a bad one-year deal) or get a pick and the pool money that goes with it. In terms of an extension, I'd be game for something like 2/35 with some IP-based bonuses and one of those "expensive team option/cheap player option" set-ups for a third year.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 24, 2023 20:14:41 GMT -5
QO is prob 20M$. But 1 year. I like that play. I love it. But if you're Paxton and his agent and he finishes the year as a 2.5+ fWAR starter in just 20ish starts this season, you know you can get more. Why take the QO? Gotta give to get. That's the risk part. I think he stays for 20M. Its ok if he leaves and we get a second round pick. Its too risky he gets hurt and we have 15M sitting on the books of deadweight in year 2 of the extension. |
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 25, 2023 0:50:15 GMT -5
I love it. But if you're Paxton and his agent and he finishes the year as a 2.5+ fWAR starter in just 20ish starts this season, you know you can get more. Why take the QO? Gotta give to get. That's the risk part. I think he stays for 20M. Its ok if he leaves and we get a second round pick. Its too risky he gets hurt and we have 15M sitting on the books of deadweight in year 2 of the extension. How many second round picks have we drafted that are half as good as him. 2 years 35 million is worth it. That’s our biggest need and if he gets hurt well in 2025 we should have Casas, Rafaela, Duran, Wong, Bello, And maybe even Mayer everyday. No Sale contract. We should be more than able to eat 20 million if we needed to. |
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 25, 2023 7:20:01 GMT -5
What? Why sign him to that if you expect him to not hurt (which we should)
If we extend paxton to something large the bloom would deserve to be fired
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 25, 2023 7:24:23 GMT -5
20m per year for Paxton would be an insane price to pay. Guy is going to be 35 years old and has never started a full seasons worth of games.
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 25, 2023 9:42:24 GMT -5
20m per year for Paxton would be an insane price to pay. Guy is going to be 35 years old and has never started a full seasons worth of games. Well, he did make 57 starts from 2018-2019. That's just about two full seasons worth; 324/5 = 64.8. |
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 25, 2023 9:46:51 GMT -5
QO is prob 20M$. But 1 year. I like that play. Same. Good player on a 1 yr deal or a 2nd round comp pick. And doubly so because I think it's very likely we go over the luxury tax next year; making this a one-year deal makes the money matter a lot less.
And let's not forget that we still have a chance to bring him back if he turns down the QO. Yes, we'd be bidding against 29 other teams, but him having the QO attached should give us an advantage in negotiations; I don't necessarily think we'd save a lot of money if we extend him now, and plus it would feel a lot better having him under contract if he finished the year healthy. So, even if we want to try to bring him back, I still think a QO makes a lot of sense.
Edit: I seem to recall the new CBA killed the draft pick penalty for signing a QO'd player. So, we wouldn't actually have an advantage in negotiations. I still like the QO approach, though.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 25, 2023 15:25:32 GMT -5
20m per year for Paxton would be an insane price to pay. Guy is going to be 35 years old and has never started a full seasons worth of games. Well, he did make 57 starts from 2018-2019. That's just about two full seasons worth; 324/5 = 64.8. Okay? Sale was like a cy young in 2017 and 2018. The fact is since opening day 2020 until now he has made 18 Starts. And will be 35 soon, not 30 like he was for the 2019 season |
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