SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2024 Free Agency
|
Post by Guidas on Aug 7, 2023 17:49:15 GMT -5
Lee is the #1 most likely free agent for us to sign IMO. Projection spreadsheet darling with probably some scouting question marks. Posting fee not counting against the luxury tax gives us a leg up on teams that only care about the cash. They were also in on the last star KBO batter to come over. No idea what kind of deal he's going to get. 59% GB rate in the KBO. Yuck Pass.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Aug 7, 2023 17:54:57 GMT -5
Here is my genius off-season plan. Yes this involves blowing through the luxury tax, but it’s John Henry’s money not mine, and we ducked under this season. Adds: Urias @ $30M AAV Yamamoto @ $20M AAV Paxton @ $21M AAV (QO Accepted) Turner @ $16M AAV (repeat current contract) Rotation: 1. Urias 2. Bello 3. Paxton 4. Sale 5. Yamamoto Bullpen (adding 2 extra to account for injuries, and some of these guys have options): Murphy Whitlock Houck Schrieber Bernardino Winchowski Crawford Pivetta SU: Martin CL: Jansen 1B: Casas 2B: Urias 3B: Devers SS: Story C: Wong LF: Yoshi CF: Duran RF: Verdugo BN: Refsynder BN: McGuire BN: Chang BN: I have this as ~$40M over the tax. Perhaps with some creativity you can stay under the draft pick penalty threshold, and it’s not a stretch that you can get back under in 2025 with Sale, Paxton, & Turner all on expiring contracts (in Turners case with $6M buyout) in 2024. This feels like a WS team on paper, let’s ride. There is no way Henry will green light 40 million over the tax. If he does it better be for Ohtani. I doubt they'll be a tax team for a while, but Yamamoto would be a good get for this team. No draft compensation attached. So the Sox, who are top five in revenue, will stay under like teams that are bottom 15 in revene? Seems...good for the owners. But keep that up and performances like three out of the last four years* and they won't be top 5 in revenue much longer. *I contend that this team could still sneak into the playoffs this year, though admittedly, games to do so are running out.
|
|
|
Post by brian on Aug 7, 2023 18:14:14 GMT -5
There is no way Henry will green light 40 million over the tax. If he does it better be for Ohtani. I doubt they'll be a tax team for a while, but Yamamoto would be a good get for this team. No draft compensation attached. So the Sox, who are top five in revenue, will stay under like teams that are bottom 15 in revene? Seems...good for the owners. But keep that up and performances like three out of the last four years* and they won't be top 5 in revenue much longer. *I contend that this team could still sneak into the playoffs this year, though admittedly, games to do so are running out. Wait, where are the tax numbers coming from? Spotrac has them under the cap by $78m before they decline team options with Kluber ($11m), Joely Rodriguez (iffy but $4.2m), Bleier (DFA’d today $3.7m). This also assumes Turner picks up his player option at $13.5m. This doesn’t include the arb guys but the only ones of consequence are Verdugo (if they keep him) and Nick Pivetta. Everyone else is pre arb, or not someone with a big salary. So why, if under the proposed offseason, which is around $87m committed, would we be going over the luxury tax threshold by $40m? Am I missing something?
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Aug 7, 2023 18:32:48 GMT -5
2023 payroll: 228 ($5 million under)
Shedding: Turner 11m Kluber 10m Kiké 9m Duvall 7m Paxton 5m Barnes 5.5m Bleier 3.8m Mondesi 3m Joely 3m Arroyo 2m Total: 59m
Raises: Devers 12m Verdugo 4m Pivetta 3m Urias 2m McGuire 1m Schreiber 1m Total: 23m
Add that up and they're starting the offseason about $45 million under the tax (which increases by $4 million)
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 7, 2023 20:08:28 GMT -5
There is no way Henry will green light 40 million over the tax. If he does it better be for Ohtani. I doubt they'll be a tax team for a while, but Yamamoto would be a good get for this team. No draft compensation attached. So the Sox, who are top five in revenue, will stay under like teams that are bottom 15 in revene? Seems...good for the owners. But keep that up and performances like three out of the last four years* and they won't be top 5 in revenue much longer. *I contend that this team could still sneak into the playoffs this year, though admittedly, games to do so are running out. There's distance between staying under and going over by $40m.
|
|
|
Post by awalkinthepark on Aug 7, 2023 20:16:18 GMT -5
I would like Bloom to take a look at Jordan Montgomery. Think he might be pretty solid value and wouldn't cost a comp pick.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 7, 2023 20:37:44 GMT -5
Next year wouldn’t be a bad year to go over though with presumably Paxton, Sale, Martin and Jansen on expiring contracts. Potentially Pivetta, Turner and Verdugo too.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,092
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Aug 7, 2023 20:45:42 GMT -5
I would like Bloom to take a look at Jordan Montgomery. Think he might be pretty solid value and wouldn't cost a comp pick. We know he can pitch in the division too
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Aug 7, 2023 21:05:30 GMT -5
2023 payroll: 228 ($5 million under) Shedding: Turner 11m Kluber 10m Kiké 9m Duvall 7m Paxton 5m Barnes 5.5m Bleier 3.8m Mondesi 3m Joely 3m Arroyo 2m Total: 59m Raises: Devers 12m Verdugo 4m Pivetta 3m Urias 2m McGuire 1m Schreiber 1m Total: 23m Add that up and they're starting the offseason about $45 million under the tax (which increases by $4 million) small note but if Turner does decline they're still on the hook for like a $4M tax hit I'm pretty sure, so the most they shed there is $7M.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Aug 7, 2023 21:13:20 GMT -5
I would like Bloom to take a look at Jordan Montgomery. Think he might be pretty solid value and wouldn't cost a comp pick. I'm pretty sure they did away with teams needing to give up a comp pick to sign QO'd FAs in the new CBA.
|
|
|
Post by redsox56 on Aug 7, 2023 21:52:12 GMT -5
My guess is the off-season is pretty much go all out for Yamamoto. Urias being plan B.
Paxton QO accepted.
A two year deal with option for Joey Wendle.
Maybe a catcher better than Reese McGuire, through trade or free agency.
|
|
|
Post by taiwansox on Aug 7, 2023 21:54:25 GMT -5
My guess is the off-season is pretty much go all out for Yamamoto. Urias being plan B. Paxton QO accepted. A two year deal with option for Joey Wendle. Maybe a catcher better than Reese McGuire, through trade or free agency. I honestly think Montgomery is straight up better than Urias, never mind the price. Also Snell although he’s a little risky with his inconsistency
|
|
|
Post by redsox56 on Aug 7, 2023 21:56:58 GMT -5
My guess is the off-season is pretty much go all out for Yamamoto. Urias being plan B. Paxton QO accepted. A two year deal with option for Joey Wendle. Maybe a catcher better than Reese McGuire, through trade or free agency. I honestly think Montgomery is straight up better than Urias, never mind the price. Also Snell although he’s a little risky with his inconsistency Not fully sure who's plan B to be honest. Just a guess. I really hope they really sign plan A in Yamamoto and that'll be that.
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Aug 7, 2023 21:58:54 GMT -5
My guess is the off-season is pretty much go all out for Yamamoto. Urias being plan B. Paxton QO accepted. A two year deal with option for Joey Wendle. Maybe a catcher better than Reese McGuire, through trade or free agency. I honestly think Montgomery is straight up better than Urias, never mind the price. Also Snell although he’s a little risky with his inconsistency I want no part of Urias. I could also see the likes of Verdugo and Pivetta being delt. Iid like to think Ohtani is 1 priority but I do T see JH going the 600M$ it’s going to take or do I see Ohtani leaving the west coast.
|
|
|
Post by taiwansox on Aug 7, 2023 22:06:46 GMT -5
I honestly think Montgomery is straight up better than Urias, never mind the price. Also Snell although he’s a little risky with his inconsistency Not fully sure who's plan B to be honest. Just a guess. I really hope they really sign plan A in Yamamoto and that'll be that. I could see Jack Flaherty or Lucas Giolito depending on if we can tweak their arsenal. Sonny Gray/Aaron Nola are other possibilities, but they’re almost definitely getting overpaid
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 7, 2023 22:55:55 GMT -5
2023 payroll: 228 ($5 million under) Shedding: Turner 11m Kluber 10m Kiké 9m Duvall 7m Paxton 5m Barnes 5.5m Bleier 3.8m Mondesi 3m Joely 3m Arroyo 2m Total: 59m Raises: Devers 12m Verdugo 4m Pivetta 3m Urias 2m McGuire 1m Schreiber 1m Total: 23m Add that up and they're starting the offseason about $45 million under the tax (which increases by $4 million) small note but if Turner does decline they're still on the hook for like a $4M tax hit I'm pretty sure, so the most they shed there is $7M. Also won't Urias make about 4 million more than they're paying him this year?
Anyways, they can add Paxton on a QO at 21 million, a #1 pitcher for 30 million, say, an Eflin type for $10 million, replace Turner or bring him back for 13 millionish, and be about $30 million over the LTT, and not have too much trouble getting back under in 2025 with Sale, Paxton, and Jansen ($62 million or so) coming off the books.
|
|
|
Post by redsox56 on Aug 7, 2023 23:12:09 GMT -5
small note but if Turner does decline they're still on the hook for like a $4M tax hit I'm pretty sure, so the most they shed there is $7M. Also won't Urias make about 4 million more than they're paying him this year?
Anyways, they can add Paxton on a QO at 21 million, a #1 pitcher for 30 million, say, an Eflin type for $10 million, replace Turner or bring him back for 13 millionish, and be about $30 million over the LTT, and not have too much trouble getting back under in 2025 with Sale, Paxton, and Jansen ($62 million or so) coming off the books.
Funny part is after the bad Chris Sale contract, I can still see a scenario where Chris Sale pitches good enough to get the QO from the Sox in 2025.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Aug 8, 2023 0:45:49 GMT -5
Am I the only one who wants Matt Chapman? Only 30 years old. Perfect hitter for Fenway. Devers/Casas at 1st/DH. Duran/Story/Devers/Chapman/Yoshida/Casas 1-6 would be a beautiful thing. Would love that glove at 3rd. Of course this is expecting JT leaves.
|
|
|
Post by redsox56 on Aug 8, 2023 1:14:32 GMT -5
Am I the only one who wants Matt Chapman? Only 30 years old. Perfect hitter for Fenway. Devers/Casas at 1st/DH. Duran/Story/Devers/Chapman/Yoshida/Casas 1-6 would be a beautiful thing. Would love that glove at 3rd. Of course this is expecting JT leaves. In theory it makes sense, but this assumes Casas is a full-time DH and Devers is ready to take on a first base role permanently. (Gets rid of Casas at first base and takes away most of Devers bad throwing errors). The Sox have consistently built up Devers as a third base only player to the point where they haven't even tried him at first base versatility wise yet. In other words, it ain't happening any time soon. It should happen, and Devers probably shouldn't care since he already got paid. That's not how ego's work in sports.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Aug 8, 2023 1:19:28 GMT -5
Am I the only one who wants Matt Chapman? Only 30 years old. Perfect hitter for Fenway. Devers/Casas at 1st/DH. Duran/Story/Devers/Chapman/Yoshida/Casas 1-6 would be a beautiful thing. Would love that glove at 3rd. Of course this is expecting JT leaves. In theory it makes sense, but this assumes Casas is a full-time DH and Devers is ready to take on a first base role permanently. (Gets rid of Casas at first base and takes away most of Devers bad throwing errors). The Sox have consistently built up Devers as a third base only player to the point where they haven't even tried him at first base versatility wise yet. In other words, it ain't happening any time soon. It should happen, and Devers probably shouldn't care since he already got paid. That's not how ego's work in sports. I just think that he got his contract now and won’t care about moving over if he knows we’re getting a stud at 3rd since he wants to publicly go out and say we need help he should be open to wherever that is. Yamamoto/Montgomery/Matt Chapman and i’m perfectly fine with that offseason.
|
|
|
Post by bosox904 on Aug 8, 2023 4:50:01 GMT -5
I would like Bloom to take a look at Jordan Montgomery. Think he might be pretty solid value and wouldn't cost a comp pick. I'm pretty sure they did away with teams needing to give up a comp pick to sign QO'd FAs in the new CBA. They would have if the union and MLB worked out a deal for a international draft, which they never did by the deadline. So the comp system was kept.
|
|
|
Post by awalkinthepark on Aug 8, 2023 8:05:26 GMT -5
Am I the only one who wants Matt Chapman? Only 30 years old. Perfect hitter for Fenway. Devers/Casas at 1st/DH. Duran/Story/Devers/Chapman/Yoshida/Casas 1-6 would be a beautiful thing. Would love that glove at 3rd. Of course this is expecting JT leaves. Devers and Casas are both way too young to be getting the majority of their at bats at DH. It would nuke their value. If anyone is moving to DH anytime soon it would be Yoshida.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Aug 8, 2023 8:56:52 GMT -5
small note but if Turner does decline they're still on the hook for like a $4M tax hit I'm pretty sure, so the most they shed there is $7M. Also won't Urias make about 4 million more than they're paying him this year?
Anyways, they can add Paxton on a QO at 21 million, a #1 pitcher for 30 million, say, an Eflin type for $10 million, replace Turner or bring him back for 13 millionish, and be about $30 million over the LTT, and not have too much trouble getting back under in 2025 with Sale, Paxton, and Jansen ($62 million or so) coming off the books.
In 2025 they also have Martin, Verdugo, Turner and some buy-out stuff which adds to another $24M coming off. You obviously need to replace those guys in 2025 too, but can probably save some money there. You hopefully wanna budget for an extension or two also from Duran/Casas/Bello (and you're thinking about Rafaela and Mayer too in 2025). Anyways I do think if they really wanna compete in 2024 they should do something along the line of what you said: $55M on starting pitching, $15M on position players (which basically means Turner or if they wanna prioritize defense someone like Kiermaier or Lee). Gets complicated if we start thinking about trades but if you just roll with the same players and try to upgrade by buying I think that's the path. I don't think it's a guarantee that ownership will be willing to go $25M+ over the luxury tax, but hopefully with the books in good shape to clear immediately they are.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Aug 8, 2023 9:16:42 GMT -5
Just a hypothetical, if they were to go for Ohtani what else does the off-season look like:
You probably still offer Paxton the QO since that has to happen first, and then you don't go for any other starters other than maybe a cheaper Rich Hill-esque guy. You probably don't resign Turner, but now you need a righty and a backup 1st baseman, so maybe you try to resign Duvall or look at guys like Gio Urshela or Garrett Cooper, or if they're all too expensive you roll with Chang.
|
|
|
Post by brian on Aug 8, 2023 9:34:05 GMT -5
Just a hypothetical, if they were to go for Ohtani what else does the off-season look like: You probably still offer Paxton the QO since that has to happen first, and then you don't go for any other starters other than maybe a cheaper Rich Hill-esque guy. You probably don't resign Turner, but now you need a righty and a backup 1st baseman, so maybe you try to resign Duvall or look at guys like Gio Urshela or Garrett Cooper, or if they're all too expensive you roll with Chang. Turner is so good for this team but if you’re assuming they’re not willing to resign I could see them signing Jesus Aguilar. He’s got an .836 OPS against lefties but otherwise has been dreadful this season. If you’re just looking for a cheap platoon option he might be a good person to target
|
|
|