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2024 Free Agency
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Post by briam on Aug 7, 2023 9:49:51 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel posted an article today with some early thoughts on upcoming free agency, along with some contract comps for guys anticipated to make between $80-150 million this winter. Anticipates Yamamoto being the highest investment when factoring in posting fees. Thinks Snell will get a contract somewhere between Robbie Ray (5-115) and Corbin/Rodon. Gausman as a comp for Nola and even mentions old friend E-Rod could get to 9 figures but there’s a good chance it’s through a restructure with the Tigers before he even hits FA. www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/38129075/early-2023-mlb-free-agency-rankings-top-10-ohtani-chapman-snell |
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Aug 7, 2023 9:59:18 GMT -5
Checking in on Jung-hoo Lee after seeing his name in that article and it looks like was having an off year that recently ended due to an ankle injury. I'm curious if he will still seek being posted but if he does I wonder if the FO will view this as a possible buy low/rebound situation.
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Post by KoreaSoxFan on Aug 7, 2023 11:34:31 GMT -5
Checking in on Jung-hoo Lee after seeing his name in that article and it looks like was having an off year that recently ended due to an ankle injury. I'm curious if he will still seek being posted but if he does I wonder if the FO will view this as a possible buy low/rebound situation. He changed his swing earlier this year to prepare for MLB fastballs. Then he hit .218/.333/.345 in April. So he went back to his old swing in mid May. Since June, he's hitting .394/.482/.555. Then the ankle injury ended his season. |
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Aug 7, 2023 11:36:11 GMT -5
Thank for this context! I look forward to him potentially coming stateside this winter.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 7, 2023 11:48:37 GMT -5
Lee is the #1 most likely free agent for us to sign IMO. Projection spreadsheet darling with probably some scouting question marks. Posting fee not counting against the luxury tax gives us a leg up on teams that only care about the cash. They were also in on the last star KBO batter to come over.
No idea what kind of deal he's going to get.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 7, 2023 11:58:14 GMT -5
Lee is the #1 most likely free agent for us to sign IMO. Projection spreadsheet darling with probably some scouting question marks. Posting fee not counting against the luxury tax gives us a leg up on teams that only care about the cash. They were also in on the last star KBO batter to come over. No idea what kind of deal he's going to get. 59% GB rate in the KBO. Yuck |
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 7, 2023 12:04:15 GMT -5
Checking in on Jung-hoo Lee after seeing his name in that article and it looks like was having an off year that recently ended due to an ankle injury. I'm curious if he will still seek being posted but if he does I wonder if the FO will view this as a possible buy low/rebound situation. He changed his swing earlier this year to prepare for MLB fastballs. Then he hit .218/.333/.345 in April. So he went back to his old swing in mid May. Since June, he's hitting .394/.482/.555. And...the ankle injury ruined his season. I see in one of the articles that he plays CF. Does he seem like a fit for Fenway RF, with a strong arm ? |
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 7, 2023 12:07:01 GMT -5
Lee is the #1 most likely free agent for us to sign IMO. Projection spreadsheet darling with probably some scouting question marks. Posting fee not counting against the luxury tax gives us a leg up on teams that only care about the cash. They were also in on the last star KBO batter to come over. No idea what kind of deal he's going to get. 59% GB rate in the KBO. Yuck Prob not looking at many extra base hits, but he's a legit CF with a strong arm that doesn't strike out and he'll be 25 years old next year |
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Post by Jimmy on Aug 7, 2023 13:23:04 GMT -5
Here is my genius off-season plan. Yes this involves blowing through the luxury tax, but it’s John Henry’s money not mine, and we ducked under this season. Adds: Urias @ $30M AAV Yamamoto @ $20M AAV Paxton @ $21M AAV (QO Accepted) Turner @ $16M AAV (repeat current contract) Rotation: 1. Urias 2. Bello 3. Paxton 4. Sale 5. Yamamoto Bullpen (adding 2 extra to account for injuries, and some of these guys have options): Murphy Whitlock Houck Schrieber Bernardino Winchowski Crawford Pivetta SU: Martin CL: Jansen 1B: Casas 2B: Urias 3B: Devers SS: Story C: Wong LF: Yoshi CF: Duran RF: Verdugo BN: Refsynder BN: McGuire BN: Chang BN:  I have this as ~$40M over the tax. Perhaps with some creativity you can stay under the draft pick penalty threshold, and it’s not a stretch that you can get back under in 2025 with Sale, Paxton, & Turner all on expiring contracts (in Turners case with $6M buyout) in 2024. This feels like a WS team on paper, let’s ride. |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 7, 2023 13:26:44 GMT -5
Here is my genius off-season plan. Yes this involves blowing through the luxury tax, but it’s John Henry’s money not mine, and we ducked under this season. Adds: Urias @ $30M AAV Yamamoto @ $20M AAV Paxton @ $21M AAV (QO Accepted) Turner @ $16M AAV (repeat current contract) Rotation: 1. Urias 2. Bello 3. Paxton 4. Sale 5. Yamamoto Bullpen (adding 2 extra to account for injuries, and some of these guys have options): Murphy Whitlock Houck Schrieber Bernardino Winchowski Crawford Pivetta SU: Martin CL: Jansen 1B: Casas 2B: Urias 3B: Devers SS: Story C: Wong LF: Yoshi CF: Duran RF: Verdugo BN: Refsynder BN: McGuire BN: Chang BN: I have this as ~$40M over the tax. Perhaps with some creativity you can stay under the draft pick penalty threshold, and it’s not a stretch that you can get back under in 2025 with Sale, Paxton, & Turner all on expiring contracts (in Turners case with $6M buyout) in 2024. This feels like a WS team on paper, let’s ride. There is no way Henry will green light 40 million over the tax. If he does it better be for Ohtani. I doubt they'll be a tax team for a while, but Yamamoto would be a good get for this team. No draft compensation attached. |
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Post by Jimmy on Aug 7, 2023 13:29:04 GMT -5
Here is my genius off-season plan. Yes this involves blowing through the luxury tax, but it’s John Henry’s money not mine, and we ducked under this season. Adds: Urias @ $30M AAV Yamamoto @ $20M AAV Paxton @ $21M AAV (QO Accepted) Turner @ $16M AAV (repeat current contract) Rotation: 1. Urias 2. Bello 3. Paxton 4. Sale 5. Yamamoto Bullpen (adding 2 extra to account for injuries, and some of these guys have options): Murphy Whitlock Houck Schrieber Bernardino Winchowski Crawford Pivetta SU: Martin CL: Jansen 1B: Casas 2B: Urias 3B: Devers SS: Story C: Wong LF: Yoshi CF: Duran RF: Verdugo BN: Refsynder BN: McGuire BN: Chang BN: I have this as ~$40M over the tax. Perhaps with some creativity you can stay under the draft pick penalty threshold, and it’s not a stretch that you can get back under in 2025 with Sale, Paxton, & Turner all on expiring contracts (in Turners case with $6M buyout) in 2024. This feels like a WS team on paper, let’s ride. There is no way Henry will green light 40 million over the tax. If he does it better be for Ohtani. I doubt they'll be a tax team for a while, but Yamamoto would be a good get for this team. No draft compensation attached. Ohtani would be great in 2024, 2025, 2026 but not sure I want to be on the hook for the remaining $420M |
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 7, 2023 13:32:46 GMT -5
This is a broader question, perhaps, but how much does Ohtani bring in in extra revenue to a team, win or lose? I mean, if he is selling scores of shirts and merch, playing globally on tv, etc, is it possible he pays off the tax in revenue? I know there are other penalties, but an owner looking simply at balance sheet… over the course of a $500 million contract, does he make you more even without a title? I just don’t know the accounting.
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Post by kwodes on Aug 7, 2023 13:49:08 GMT -5
This is a broader question, perhaps, but how much does Ohtani bring in in extra revenue to a team, win or lose? I mean, if he is selling scores of shirts and merch, playing globally on tv, etc, is it possible he pays off the tax in revenue? I know there are other penalties, but an owner looking simply at balance sheet… over the course of a $500 million contract, does he make you more even without a title? I just don’t know the accounting. I would think if they had Yoshida and Ohtani, the money they'd make from the Asian markets would be insane. |
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Post by kwodes on Aug 7, 2023 13:55:07 GMT -5
Here is my genius off-season plan. Yes this involves blowing through the luxury tax, but it’s John Henry’s money not mine, and we ducked under this season. Adds: Urias @ $30M AAV Yamamoto @ $20M AAV Paxton @ $21M AAV (QO Accepted) Turner @ $16M AAV (repeat current contract) Rotation: 1. Urias 2. Bello 3. Paxton 4. Sale 5. Yamamoto Bullpen (adding 2 extra to account for injuries, and some of these guys have options): Murphy Whitlock Houck Schrieber Bernardino Winchowski Crawford Pivetta SU: Martin CL: Jansen 1B: Casas 2B: Urias 3B: Devers SS: Story C: Wong LF: Yoshi CF: Duran RF: Verdugo BN: Refsynder BN: McGuire BN: Chang BN: I have this as ~$40M over the tax. Perhaps with some creativity you can stay under the draft pick penalty threshold, and it’s not a stretch that you can get back under in 2025 with Sale, Paxton, & Turner all on expiring contracts (in Turners case with $6M buyout) in 2024. This feels like a WS team on paper, let’s ride. this is a plausible outcome, but I don't think likely. If Paxton accepts the QO, I think they go after Yamamoto and that's it for pitchers. I think they'd try and resign turner, add another right-handed power bat of some kind (think Duvall), and add Joey Wendle (he's a free agent and we know Chaim likes him). I'd say that's a pretty realistic outcome, as well as an ideal outcome for the offseason. |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 7, 2023 13:59:20 GMT -5
Here is my genius off-season plan. Yes this involves blowing through the luxury tax, but it’s John Henry’s money not mine, and we ducked under this season. Adds: Urias @ $30M AAV Yamamoto @ $20M AAV Paxton @ $21M AAV (QO Accepted) Turner @ $16M AAV (repeat current contract) Rotation: 1. Urias 2. Bello 3. Paxton 4. Sale 5. Yamamoto Bullpen (adding 2 extra to account for injuries, and some of these guys have options): Murphy Whitlock Houck Schrieber Bernardino Winchowski Crawford Pivetta SU: Martin CL: Jansen 1B: Casas 2B: Urias 3B: Devers SS: Story C: Wong LF: Yoshi CF: Duran RF: Verdugo BN: Refsynder BN: McGuire BN: Chang BN: I have this as ~$40M over the tax. Perhaps with some creativity you can stay under the draft pick penalty threshold, and it’s not a stretch that you can get back under in 2025 with Sale, Paxton, & Turner all on expiring contracts (in Turners case with $6M buyout) in 2024. This feels like a WS team on paper, let’s ride. There is no way Henry will green light 40 million over the tax. If he does it better be for Ohtani. I doubt they'll be a tax team for a while, but Yamamoto would be a good get for this team. No draft compensation attached. You are characteristically combining a totally baseless statement with an expression of complete certainty (much like when you said before this season that the team wasn't even trying to be competitive this year).
They went over the LTT all of *one* season ago. There's a very obvious logic for why they would do so again in 2024: Sale will be in the last year of his deal, so they have their last big chunk of legacy contract money on the books that they'll be rid of after the season. There's also good sense in offering a QO to Paxton, and Paxton might have good reason to take it. If so they basically have Sale + Paxton on 1/47 or so.
If they were counting on those two guys to be two-fifths of the rotation, that would be worrisome. But if it's only on one year deals for both of them then the long-term risk is nil; they could still sign two or three other pitchers, including one top tier starter, and bring back Turner, say, and that puts them well above the LTT (not sure by how much), but with $47 million on those one-year deals they could duck back under as soon as 2025.
And how 'bout a rotation of:
Yamamoto or Nola or whoever
Sale Paxton Bello Whitlock Houck
[whoever this year's Eflin type is, hopefully actually willing to take the highest bid from Boston] Crawford Pivetta
The other piece of the rationale here is that the 2024 bullpen and lineup are basically already built; they really just need a replacement for Turner. So the rotation is where the both need, and pretty much have to, spend their money.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 7, 2023 14:00:53 GMT -5
This is a broader question, perhaps, but how much does Ohtani bring in in extra revenue to a team, win or lose? I mean, if he is selling scores of shirts and merch, playing globally on tv, etc, is it possible he pays off the tax in revenue? I know there are other penalties, but an owner looking simply at balance sheet… over the course of a $500 million contract, does he make you more even without a title? I just don’t know the accounting. I would think if they had Yoshida and Ohtani, the money they'd make from the Asian markets would be insane. Very true. But would Henry spend the money? I tend to think no. Then again this is the same owner that legitimately signed Panda so he could sell ridiculous Panda merchandise. So who really knows. Kind of depends if he still even cares about the team. I think its more Sam Kennedys team than Henrys at this point. |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 7, 2023 14:04:47 GMT -5
There is no way Henry will green light 40 million over the tax. If he does it better be for Ohtani. I doubt they'll be a tax team for a while, but Yamamoto would be a good get for this team. No draft compensation attached. You are characteristically combining a totally baseless statement with an expression of complete certainty (much like when you said before this season that the team wasn't even trying to be competitive this year).
They went over the LTT all of *one* season ago. There's a very obvious logic for why they would do so again in 2024: Sale will be in the last year of his deal, so they have their last big chunk of legacy contract money on the books that they'll be rid of after the season. There's also good sense in offering a QO to Paxton, and Paxton might have good reason to take it. If so they basically have Sale + Paxton on 1/47 or so.
If they were counting on those two guys to be two-fifths of the rotation, that would be worrisome. But if it's only on one year deals for both of them then the long-term risk is nil; they could still sign two or three other pitchers, including one top tier starter, and bring back Turner, say, and that puts them well above the LTT (not sure by how much), but with $47 million on those one-year deals they could duck back under as soon as 2025.
And how 'bout a rotation of:
Yamamoto or Nola or whoever
Sale Paxton Bello [whoever this year's Eflin type is, hopefully actually willing to take the highest bid from Boston] Crawford Pivetta
The other piece of the rationale here is that the 2024 bullpen and lineup are basically already built; they really just need a replacement for Turner. So the rotation is where the both need, and pretty much have to, spend their money.
And they weren't trying to be competitive. How are you competitive when you're hoping Chris Sale is your ace? You act like you've never seen a bridge team. If you're trying to be competitive you don't field a team that can't make basic baseball plays for 3 months and put together a staff with glue and duct tape. But I also never faulted them for that because the goal is 2025. Its always been 2025 with the guys coming up. 2021 was an aberration. You saw right after that season what happened. Bloom neglected 1st base and right field until he got 2 players for free in July. They probably make the post season last year if those moves were made in February. Then again, all depends what you consider "competitive". Very loose definition with 3 WC spots. And why Nola? He's been spotty this year for sure. |
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Post by KoreaSoxFan on Aug 7, 2023 14:25:20 GMT -5
He changed his swing earlier this year to prepare for MLB fastballs. Then he hit .218/.333/.345 in April. So he went back to his old swing in mid May. Since June, he's hitting .394/.482/.555. And...the ankle injury ruined his season. I see in one of the articles that he plays CF. Does he seem like a fit for Fenway RF, with a strong arm ? He has a strong arm. Maybe it's the best arm in KBO. But his speed is no better than average, also, he has fringe average reaction time. IMO, he will struggle to adapt to that vast Fenway RF, but still an average defender thanks to his arm. |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 7, 2023 14:26:35 GMT -5
You are characteristically combining a totally baseless statement with an expression of complete certainty (much like when you said before this season that the team wasn't even trying to be competitive this year).
They went over the LTT all of *one* season ago. There's a very obvious logic for why they would do so again in 2024: Sale will be in the last year of his deal, so they have their last big chunk of legacy contract money on the books that they'll be rid of after the season. There's also good sense in offering a QO to Paxton, and Paxton might have good reason to take it. If so they basically have Sale + Paxton on 1/47 or so.
If they were counting on those two guys to be two-fifths of the rotation, that would be worrisome. But if it's only on one year deals for both of them then the long-term risk is nil; they could still sign two or three other pitchers, including one top tier starter, and bring back Turner, say, and that puts them well above the LTT (not sure by how much), but with $47 million on those one-year deals they could duck back under as soon as 2025.
And how 'bout a rotation of:
Yamamoto or Nola or whoever
Sale Paxton Bello [whoever this year's Eflin type is, hopefully actually willing to take the highest bid from Boston] Crawford Pivetta
The other piece of the rationale here is that the 2024 bullpen and lineup are basically already built; they really just need a replacement for Turner. So the rotation is where the both need, and pretty much have to, spend their money.
And they weren't trying to be competitive. How are you competitive when you're hoping Chris Sale is your ace? You act like you've never seen a bridge team. If you're trying to be competitive you don't field a team that can't make basic baseball plays for 3 months and put together a staff with glue and duct tape. But I also never faulted them for that because the goal is 2025. Its always been 2025 with the guys coming up. 2021 was an aberration. You saw right after that season what happened. Bloom neglected 1st base and right field until he got 2 players for free in July. They probably make the post season last year if those moves were made in February. Then again, all depends what you consider "competitive". Very loose definition with 3 WC spots. And why Nola? He's been spotty this year for sure. Nola's just a placeholder there (as is Yamamoto); take the #1 FA pitcher of your choice. Or more to the point, it's whoever *they* think the #1 pitcher is. They've mostly had good judgment in the pitchers they've pursued so I trust them on that. I would only be disappointed if they get boxed out of the market by an unwillingness to spend. They might also try to add a young controllable guy through trade - something that Bloom clearly wants to do, if he can get his price for it. The strengthening farm system makes it more likely that can happen. |
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Aug 7, 2023 14:42:58 GMT -5
Here is my genius off-season plan. Yes this involves blowing through the luxury tax, but it’s John Henry’s money not mine, and we ducked under this season. Adds: Urias @ $30M AAV Yamamoto @ $20M AAV Yamamoto compared to Urias is: Younger Cleaner health record And quite frankly a superior pitcher Why is he payed 10M less in your plan? |
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Aug 7, 2023 14:53:07 GMT -5
I would think if they had Yoshida and Ohtani, the money they'd make from the Asian markets would be insane. Very true. But would Henry spend the money? I tend to think no. Then again this is the same owner that legitimately signed Panda so he could sell ridiculous Panda merchandise. So who really knows. Kind of depends if he still even cares about the team. I think its more Sam Kennedys team than Henrys at this point. Remember when Dice-K first came over and there were actually Japanese language ads behind home plate? I'm not sure how much that helps, but it was definitely a thing. I just don't think I've felt hype like that since Ichiro/Dice-K though. |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 7, 2023 14:58:22 GMT -5
Very true. But would Henry spend the money? I tend to think no. Then again this is the same owner that legitimately signed Panda so he could sell ridiculous Panda merchandise. So who really knows. Kind of depends if he still even cares about the team. I think its more Sam Kennedys team than Henrys at this point. Remember when Dice-K first came over and there were actually Japanese language ads behind home plate? I'm not sure how much that helps, but it was definitely a thing. I just don't think I've felt hype like that since Ichiro/Dice-K though. The younger fans don't remember the unreal hype with Dice-K. The Gyroball? Ohtani levels of hype. Of course, he fell very short of that. But he was useful while here. |
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Post by brian on Aug 7, 2023 15:02:14 GMT -5
There is no way Henry will green light 40 million over the tax. If he does it better be for Ohtani. I doubt they'll be a tax team for a while, but Yamamoto would be a good get for this team. No draft compensation attached. You are characteristically combining a totally baseless statement with an expression of complete certainty (much like when you said before this season that the team wasn't even trying to be competitive this year).
They went over the LTT all of *one* season ago. There's a very obvious logic for why they would do so again in 2024: Sale will be in the last year of his deal, so they have their last big chunk of legacy contract money on the books that they'll be rid of after the season. There's also good sense in offering a QO to Paxton, and Paxton might have good reason to take it. If so they basically have Sale + Paxton on 1/47 or so.
If they were counting on those two guys to be two-fifths of the rotation, that would be worrisome. But if it's only on one year deals for both of them then the long-term risk is nil; they could still sign two or three other pitchers, including one top tier starter, and bring back Turner, say, and that puts them well above the LTT (not sure by how much), but with $47 million on those one-year deals they could duck back under as soon as 2025.
And how 'bout a rotation of:
Yamamoto or Nola or whoever
Sale Paxton Bello Whitlock Houck
[whoever this year's Eflin type is, hopefully actually willing to take the highest bid from Boston] Crawford Pivetta
The other piece of the rationale here is that the 2024 bullpen and lineup are basically already built; they really just need a replacement for Turner. So the rotation is where the both need, and pretty much have to, spend their money.
There was a report prior to the deadline that Seattle was looking to trade from their SP depth to add a bat either Logan Gilbert or George Kirby. If they’re in on Kirby I’d be willing to trade just about anything for him. If you had Yamamoto/Kirby/Paxton/Bello and then a rotating list of 40 man guys like Crawford/Sale/Whitlock that could turn around the rotation in a hurry |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 7, 2023 15:18:03 GMT -5
ERod at 9 figures? Ouch. What about Giolito?
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Post by Jimmy on Aug 7, 2023 17:09:00 GMT -5
Here is my genius off-season plan. Yes this involves blowing through the luxury tax, but it’s John Henry’s money not mine, and we ducked under this season. Adds: Urias @ $30M AAV Yamamoto @ $20M AAV Yamamoto compared to Urias is: Younger Cleaner health record And quite frankly a superior pitcher Why is he payed 10M less in your plan? I don’t think that Yamamoto is the superior pitcher, I expect he gets more years that Urias, and you also have to factor in the posting fee (which does not go towards AAV in the context of luxury tax) |
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