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2024 Free Agency
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Feb 13, 2024 16:36:14 GMT -5
He may have thought the non elite prospects - basically everyone below Teel or Rafaela or Blies depending on how you feel on the latter two - had more trade value.
Nobody but those guys can be the lead prospect in a trade for a good pitcher. And god help us if Breslow went in thinking the way the bane of every fantasy league - the guy who is confident you want his 5 nickels for your one quarter - does.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Feb 13, 2024 16:42:49 GMT -5
If Vegas has this team at over/under of 80 or 81 then hammer the under. The East is way too good and on paper the team has too many questions and not enough consistency to back it up. In order for this team to get to .500 in this division we will need to see huge leaps forward by Bello and some of the other young guys, Duran Pivetta and Casas to build on last year and Giolito to come back to form for the first time since they outlawed the sticky stuff. It could happen. There's a lot of things that could happen. Would I bet on it? Absolutely not. I'm laying out the absolute best case scenario and I fail to see how this team finishes higher than 4th in that scenario. Orioles and Rays are absolutely loaded with talent. Yankees on paper are better as are the Blue Jays. This changes with a legitimate #2 starter on this team. If they add that I think the team could get 82-84 wins. Without it you're probably looking at 75-78. Not bad enough to bottom out but not good enough to make the playoffs. Probably will pick around the 9-14 range next year. For what its worth I'm bullish on Grissom probably more than most on the board. You think a #2 starter is worth roughly 6 wins? I think a number 2 starter can be, yes. Look at it like this, you have a situation where you're asking Bello to anchor a rotation and be the guy as the #2 starter when he's still trying to develop. Matchups also matter too. If you match up Bello vs #2 starters on other teams, who would you give the edge to? I've seen this sentiment parroted a lot by people on the board this offseason, mostly to feel better about not getting anyone and replacing Sale with Giolito. There are reasons why top of the rotation starters are very important, and you'd rather have one over say, Kutter Crawford. It also depends who the starter in question is and who they'd replace. Last years team probably would have been vastly improved by Snell starting games over Bernindino. Remember this pen was gassed at the end of the year. That also plays into this as well. Its not all about just one move, its how that move impacts the team overall. You get a top starter, then you can eliminate the opener, and put people in the pen who can thrive in those roles.
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 13, 2024 16:51:40 GMT -5
It’s simultaneously true that this is clearly the worst roster in the division, and it’s an above-average roster overall and still has the potential to produce a very entertaining season if they get a little luck. If you want to be angry, there are plenty of things to be upset about. Of you want to be optimistic, there are plenty of things to look forward to.
The offseason was a failure the moment Yamamoto signed in LA, but I like the moves they did make and beyond YY I’m not too upset about the guys they missed out on. Do Montgomery and Soler move the needle enough to justify paying them $40 million three years from now, when they project for a combined 2.1 fWAR? Do you want to pay Blake Snell $30+ million when he’s 37? I have a tough time with those, they feel like moves the Rockies or Angels would make.
If their plan is really to wait until their top prospects are up and productive before spending money, I don’t think that’s a great idea. But if the plan is to wait until players they actually want to spend big money on are on the market, which just so happens to give them another year to evaluate what they have, that’s not the worst backup plan.
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Post by asm18 on Feb 13, 2024 16:59:53 GMT -5
Ignoring all rhetoric and just looking at the actions the team has taken, you'd think they looked at the last two seasons in which the team was only okay, decided that they were being too aggressive for not enough payoff, and the thing to do was to reel it back on the short-term free agency spending. [/div][/quote] There’s a very weird paradox with the team right now where it’s seemingly been evaluated by the front office/ownership as “not worth it” to go all in Leeroy Jenkins-style spending money in free agency - because the assumption is the team this year is not good enough to justify it. At the same time they seem very expectant for say, a Trevor Story bounce-back and a Yoshida second-year jump. They view their rotation pieces as very talented players that a pitching coach who actually knows what he’s doing can get the best out of. They seem to be incredibly high on guys like Abreu, Rafaela, and some of the prospects not too far away. They think (correctly or not) that they have an elite manager who can squeeze wins out of undermanned teams. But if you actually feel that way about these different elements of the team… wouldn’t that suggest the team is going to be good, and thus worthy of investing? It’s not like an Oakland Athletics situation where you simply can’t talk yourself into piece A, B, and C all working out and no amount of money spent is gonna get your roster to 85-90 wins. It’s such a contradictory mindset.
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Post by swingingbunt on Feb 13, 2024 17:15:22 GMT -5
It’s simultaneously true that this is clearly the worst in the division, and it’s an above-average roster overall and still has the potential to produce a very entertaining season if they get a little luck. If you want to be angry, there are plenty of things to be upset about. Of you want to be optimistic, there are plenty of things to look forward to. The offseason was a failure the moment Yamamoto signed in LA, but I like the moves they did make and beyond YY I’m not too upset about the guys they missed out on. Do Montgomery and Soler move the needle enough to justify paying them $40 million three years from now, when they project for a combined 2.1 fWAR? Do you want to pay Blake Snell $30+ million when he’s 37? I have a tough time with those, they feel like moves the Rockies or Angels would make. If their plan is really to wait until their top prospects are up and productive before spending money, I don’t think that’s a great idea. But if the plan is to wait until players they actually want to spend big money on are on the market, which just so happens to give them another year to evaluate what they have, that’s not the worst backup plan. You're not saying otherwise, but the problem with the bolded is that you can put every single signing or potential signing into a vacuum and say it's a bad idea - but then you're left bringing the same team to spring training that finished the last month of '23 with 32% winning percentage. At some point, the FO needed to make a decision on who they were going to take a chance on, and get a deal done, but they didn't. That is, of course, if goal was to actually win in '24. And as to your last point - that's exactly right. It doesn't seem like winning this year is relevant to this FO. Most of us are upset with the off-season because there were stated goals, with a nice bow on top of expecting a "Full Throttle" off-season. Turns out that was a marketing strategy, and not a baseball operations one. If expectations on the off-season were correctly stated from the beginning, then there wouldn't be as much of an outrage - but there would have also been less season tickets sold, and we can't have THAT!
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 13, 2024 17:23:40 GMT -5
Well, to be fair, your posts have mostly been snarky and negative. Vegas disagrees that this year's team is worse than last year's; last year the win total O/U was 76.5 or 77.5 depending on where you looked and this year it's 79.5 or 80.5. I haven't seen a single projection that has the Sox with fewer wins than last year: Fangraphs has 82, PECOTA has 79.5, etc. Any additions would of course make things look even better.
Honest question: Where are they better this year than they were last year? Objectively, the starting rotation looks pretty bad, the bullpen looks good and the offense looks pretty thin. I can envision a scenario where the lack of depth in the rotation destroys the depth in the bullpen by late-May. Will the Sox have the punch to outscore everyone from that point on? Turner was probably the most clutch hitter on the team last year. Who replaces that for this team? Also, everyone seems convinced that Grissom is the next Pedroia. But what if he’s not? What if he’s more Christian Arroyo than Pedroia? They are kind of putting all their eggs in one basket with him. I’m skeptical. I’m no gambler, but I fail to see how this team is better than the one that finished last season. Corey Kluber is not the opening day starter. Bello will hopefully take another developmental step forward. Houck, for all the talk that he belongs in the bullpen, has been decent enough in the rotation throughout his career and did make some very good starts throughout the year. At the very least, he should be better than whoever was taking his turn when he had his broken face. Pivetta seemed to have taken a real step forward last year, and hopefully will not be one of the worst pitchers in baseball for the first two months of the year. The same goes for Casas on the batting side. Story and Grissom definitely come with risk, but the 2023 Red Sox got a combined -0.7 fWAR from the middle infield last year. They don’t have to be very good at all to be a huge upgrade. Maybe having an MLB-caliber shortstop next to him will help Devers defensively—Cora seems to think so. Maybe more time DHing will help Yoshida maintain his production—I don’t think it would be a shock if he outproduced Turner. Nothing is guaranteed in baseball, but I think they reshuffled the roster in ways that made the team better. The schedule does look a little tough this year, so you can never be sure how that'll translate to wins, but I think there’s more talent and fewer holes overall than last year’s roster.
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Post by asm18 on Feb 13, 2024 18:08:18 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 13, 2024 18:11:20 GMT -5
Hardly putting all your eggs in one basket with Grissom when Yorke, Hamilton, Valdez are all still in the org.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 13, 2024 18:18:59 GMT -5
Unless they do end up deciding to deal Duran which there certainly is enough smoke that I think it's a real possibility then I don't understand the need for an OFer if Rafaela is going to be on the opening day roster. Cora saying Rafaela has a shot to break camp as the starting CF would lead me to believe Rafaela will be on the opening day roster. If Duran is traded, IMO, Duval is the best add as the Red Sox still need a power RH bat. Duval could be flipped at the deadline for something. The Red Sox need Rafaela’s defense, but his bat looks like a weaker version of JBJ.
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Post by briam on Feb 13, 2024 18:25:57 GMT -5
If this front office honest to goodness is not willing to pay down Kenley’s contract to maximize their return than they can kick rocks. That seems comically incompetent.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 13, 2024 18:29:36 GMT -5
And on a different note....There were quite a few posters concerned about hiring Breslow because his lack of experience. They were concerned he would be overmatched because he has never been in a position to be the guy pulling the trigger on deals. Then, today we get this: I'm sure there are different readings of that, but it really just screams, "I wasn't prepared for the job" Completely disagree….it means he thought there would be more money available for him to spend on the players he wanted!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 13, 2024 18:30:50 GMT -5
If this front office honest to goodness is not willing to pay down Kenley’s contract to maximize their return than they can kick rocks. That seems comically incompetent. That tells me of two possibilities. Either they want to dump the contract to spend it on Montgomery (of course I don't really see why it's necessary to trade Jansen to sign Montgomery. Maybe they want to sign Snell, too, lol). Or they're being really freaking cheap this offseason with the weird exception of giving Giolito $19 million when it was doubtful anybody else was going to go that high for him. If they give away Jansen for practically nothing and don't reinvest the money I'll be pretty pissed about that. Guess we'll see what happens reasonably soon. I really don't expect Jansen to be around much longer.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 13, 2024 18:31:36 GMT -5
And on a different note....There were quite a few posters concerned about hiring Breslow because his lack of experience. They were concerned he would be overmatched because he has never been in a position to be the guy pulling the trigger on deals. Then, today we get this: I'm sure there are different readings of that, but it really just screams, "I wasn't prepared for the job" Completely disagree….it means he thought there would be more money available for him to spend on the players he wanted! That's how I interpreted it, but YMMV.
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Post by asm18 on Feb 13, 2024 18:35:26 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 13, 2024 18:42:51 GMT -5
For those of us who can't get behind the pay wall to read the article, what buzz are you referring to?
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Post by briam on Feb 13, 2024 18:50:09 GMT -5
If this front office honest to goodness is not willing to pay down Kenley’s contract to maximize their return than they can kick rocks. That seems comically incompetent. That tells me of two possibilities. Either they want to dump the contract to spend it on Montgomery (of course I don't really see why it's necessary to trade Jansen to sign Montgomery. Maybe they want to sign Snell, too, lol). Or they're being really freaking cheap this offseason with the weird exception of giving Giolito $19 million when it was doubtful anybody else was going to go that high for him. If they give away Jansen for practically nothing and don't reinvest the money I'll be pretty pissed about that. Guess we'll see what happens reasonably soon. I really don't expect Jansen to be around much longer. Latest Speier article makes it seem like they’d only be interested if Montgomery’s market craters, but if that happens Montgomery reportedly would be more interested in joining a contender. Doesn’t seem like he’s much of an option.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 13, 2024 18:54:24 GMT -5
That tells me of two possibilities. Either they want to dump the contract to spend it on Montgomery (of course I don't really see why it's necessary to trade Jansen to sign Montgomery. Maybe they want to sign Snell, too, lol). Or they're being really freaking cheap this offseason with the weird exception of giving Giolito $19 million when it was doubtful anybody else was going to go that high for him. If they give away Jansen for practically nothing and don't reinvest the money I'll be pretty pissed about that. Guess we'll see what happens reasonably soon. I really don't expect Jansen to be around much longer. Latest Speier article makes it seem like they’d only be interested if Montgomery’s market craters, but if that happens Montgomery reportedly would be more interested in joining a contender. Doesn’t seem like he’s much of an option. Yeah, if Montgomery's price goes down and it will, Dombrowski will be waiting and I doubt he'd be the only one. So they'd dump Kenley for a lottery ticket and pocket the 16 million? Geez, that would be a great look.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 13, 2024 18:57:10 GMT -5
"The Red Sox, according to sources, have kept tabs on Montgomery’s market. But if it does collapse in a way that makes him available on a shorter-term deal, there’s an industry belief that he’d be more likely to head to a team with a better chance to win in 2024 than the Red Sox."
Jordan's wife is doing her one year residency in Boston, so logically you'd think the Sox would have a leg up on a short term deal. Scottie B says Not So Fast, My Friend.
Honestly, this dance is very tiresome now that spring training has already started. Just sign somewhere already dude
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Post by yuchangclan on Feb 13, 2024 19:05:32 GMT -5
The Red Sox have had a notoriously awful relationship with Boras for a long time. Who was the last big ticket Boras client that they signed(not counting Adrian Beltre on his pillow contract)? JD Drew? I’ve been skeptical of the Sox working a big deal with Boras all Winter and I’ll stick to that now. I’m thinking the last pieces are going to be Pham and maybe Clevinger.
ADD: I don’t understand the fixation on Michael A. Taylor. Isn’t he redundant to Rafaela anyway? I think I’d rather watch the kid play.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 13, 2024 19:19:50 GMT -5
I mean how hard can this be? Just sign Duvall, sign Ryu or Clevinger, and be done with it. Overpay by a couple million if you think you need a RH bat that badly. Is Duvall holding out for $50 million or something?
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Post by incandenza on Feb 13, 2024 19:21:14 GMT -5
The Red Sox have had a notoriously awful relationship with Boras for a long time. Who was the last big ticket Boras client that they signed(not counting Adrian Beltre on his pillow contract)? JD Drew? I’ve been skeptical of the Sox working a big deal with Boras all Winter and I’ll stick to that now. I’m thinking the last pieces are going to be Pham and maybe Clevinger. ADD: I don’t understand the fixation on Michael A. Taylor. Isn’t he redundant to Rafaela anyway? I think I’d rather watch the kid play. You have to go all the way back to Yoshida for this. And before that Bogaerts' extension.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 13, 2024 19:29:00 GMT -5
Honest question: Where are they better this year than they were last year? Objectively, the starting rotation looks pretty bad, the bullpen looks good and the offense looks pretty thin. I can envision a scenario where the lack of depth in the rotation destroys the depth in the bullpen by late-May. Will the Sox have the punch to outscore everyone from that point on? Turner was probably the most clutch hitter on the team last year. Who replaces that for this team? Also, everyone seems convinced that Grissom is the next Pedroia. But what if heâs not? What if heâs more Christian Arroyo than Pedroia? They are kind of putting all their eggs in one basket with him. Iâm skeptical. Iâm no gambler, but I fail to see how this team is better than the one that finished last season. Corey Kluber is not the opening day starter. Bello will hopefully take another developmental step forward. Houck, for all the talk that he belongs in the bullpen, has been decent enough in the rotation throughout his career and did make some very good starts throughout the year. At the very least, he should be better than whoever was taking his turn when he had his broken face. Pivetta seemed to have taken a real step forward last year, and hopefully will not be one of the worst pitchers in baseball for the first two months of the year. The same goes for Casas on the batting side. Story and Grissom definitely come with risk, but the 2023 Red Sox got a combined -0.7 fWAR from the middle infield last year. They donât have to be very good at all to be a huge upgrade. Maybe having an MLB-caliber shortstop next to him will help Devers defensivelyâCora seems to think so. Maybe more time DHing will help Yoshida maintain his productionâI donât think it would be a shock if he outproduced Turner. Nothing is guaranteed in baseball, but I think they reshuffled the roster in ways that made the team better. The schedule does look a little tough this year, so you can never be sure how that'll translate to wins, but I think thereâs more talent and fewer holes overall than last yearâs roster. I've posted this elsewhere, but to add onto your post, I think people are seriously underrating how bad Kiké was at SS last year and how much of a black hole 2B was. The Sox got the following production last year:
C: 1.0 fWAR
1B: 2.2 fWAR 2B: -0.9 fWAR SS: 0.2 fWAR 3B: 2.6 fWAR
That's a grand total of 5.1 fWAR from the infield. Now let's look at the ZiPS DC projections for just the projected starters in 2024 (aside from C where I'll consider both halves of McWong). This will undersell the projected WAR total if the backups are better than replacement level and vice versa since I'm not including the stats from backups to save time. It's decent as a back of napkin estimate.
C: 1.8 fWAR (Makes sense: McGuire was out for a while last year and it hurt Wong; Wong also got some good experience under his belt) 1B: 2.7 fWAR (Makes sense: Casas took a couple months to adjust to MLB last year but he was rock solid for the rest of the year) 2B: 2.4 fWAR (Makes sense: Grissom is billed as an offensive stud who evaluators think can be average at 2B) SS: 3.0 fWAR (Makes sense: Story is finally healthy. He was on a 4 WAR pace in 2022 with a wonky elbow and last year his glove was so incredible that he managed a ~1 fWAR/600 PA pace despite a 48 wRC+ as he came back from injury) 3B: 4.1 fWAR (Makes sense: Last year was a down year for Devers; he exceeded this total in 2021 and 2022)
That's a grand total of 14 fWAR from the infield, or 8.9 fWAR better than last year, with improvements at every single position.
If the thesis that Yoshida broke down down the stretch last year due to conditioning / not being used to the workload, and will avoid his second-half swoon by being better prepared this year plus getting more rest over the course of the year by DHing frequently, proves to be correct, we will not be missing Turner at all. Turner feels like he should have been a bright spot last year, but he put up all of 1.2 fWAR, in part because his glove was atrocious whenever he made it into the field and in part because, if I remember right, he cooled off heavily down the stretch as his feet started bothering him. Fangraphs has seven different projections posted for each player and every single one of them has Yoshida putting up more than 1.2 fWAR in 2024 despite him only getting halfway there last year.
The OF is more of a question mark, but there's a lot of upside there.
Pitching feels like pretty much holding serve versus last year, except the numbers may be better because the defense looks a lot better on paper, especially if Ceddanne gets a meaningful number of starts in CF.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 13, 2024 19:56:14 GMT -5
I mean how hard can this be? Just sign Duvall, sign Ryu or Clevinger, and be done with it. Overpay by a couple million if you think you need a RH bat that badly. Is Duvall holding out for $50 million or something?
In Duvall's case he might be searching for regular playing time. On the Sox it's probably partial playing time, so maybe it wouldn't be as appetizing for him to come back to Boston. Maybe he finds regular ABs elsewhere.
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Post by asm18 on Feb 13, 2024 19:57:53 GMT -5
"The Red Sox, according to sources, have kept tabs on Montgomery’s market. But if it does collapse in a way that makes him available on a shorter-term deal, there’s an industry belief that he’d be more likely to head to a team with a better chance to win in 2024 than the Red Sox."
Jordan's wife is doing her one year residency in Boston, so logically you'd think the Sox would have a leg up on a short term deal. Scottie B says Not So Fast, My Friend.
Honestly, this dance is very tiresome now that spring training has already started. Just sign somewhere already dude
I certainly would not bet much on the Red Sox to sign him (although the “kept tabs” line suggests more interest than the zero % some beat writers have basically been saying). That said… who exactly is the contender ready to pounce on Jordan Montgomery when he lowers his asking price? LAD, ATL and HOU don’t need him. NYY traded him previously for a guy in a walking boot. SEA and TOR have pretty robust rotations already. TEX seemingly isn’t comfortable with the financial result of their TV ruling, and have Scherzer, DeGrom, and Mahle coming back their summer to boot. Philly seems like the most likely to say YOLO with Dombrowski, especially if they don’t get a Wheeler extension done. But I’m not sure where else these “industry sources” expect him to go.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,991
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Post by jimoh on Feb 13, 2024 20:51:30 GMT -5
"The Red Sox, according to sources, have kept tabs on Montgomery’s market. But if it does collapse in a way that makes him available on a shorter-term deal, there’s an industry belief that he’d be more likely to head to a team with a better chance to win in 2024 than the Red Sox."
Jordan's wife is doing her one year residency in Boston, so logically you'd think the Sox would have a leg up on a short term deal. Scottie B says Not So Fast, My Friend.
Honestly, this dance is very tiresome now that spring training has already started. Just sign somewhere already dude
I certainly would not bet much on the Red Sox to sign him (although the “kept tabs” line suggests more interest than the zero % some beat writers have basically been saying). That said… who exactly is the contender ready to pounce on Jordan Montgomery when he lowers his asking price? LAD, ATL and HOU don’t need him. NYY traded him previously for a guy in a walking boot. SEA and TOR have pretty robust rotations already. TEX seemingly isn’t comfortable with the financial result of their TV ruling, and have Scherzer, DeGrom, and Mahle coming back their summer to boot. Philly seems like the most likely to say YOLO with Dombrowski, especially if they don’t get a Wheeler extension done. But I’m not sure where else these “industry sources” expect him to go. I forget where I just read this, but with their tax situation, for the Phillies to add $25M to their budget would actually cost them $41 or 44M.
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