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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Feb 1, 2024 13:34:27 GMT -5
Refsnyder posted a .308/.428/.400 vs LHP last year with an elite 15.9% walk rate and more walks than strikeouts. That’s very valuable imo, this team needs at-bats grinders.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 1, 2024 13:48:18 GMT -5
A fangraphs Szymborski article about players where the projections differ. Duvall, O'Neill, and Casas appear.
He says this in re: Casas: Is this true? I thought Fenway was supposed to be counterintuitively good for lefty sluggers because they can take advantage of the Green Monster while going the other way? Or is counter-counterintuitively that the big right field hurts them more than it helps? I'd think if you had big enough power to still get it over the right field wall while also having power to all fields (a la Big Papi and Casas) Fenway would help.
Nope, you're right ( baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors?type=year&year=2023&batSide=L&stat=index_wOBA&condition=All&rolling=) Interesting. Looks like it does slightly suppress HRs but more than makes up for it with more base hits, doubles, and triples.
Meanwhile, marvel at the wonders of Yankee Stadium: a park that suppresses every offensive metric other than HRs, walks, and strikeouts. A true feat of boring baseball engineering.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 1, 2024 14:17:20 GMT -5
Fenway is not that HR/K/BB park. It absolutely is the kind of park that encourages guys to hit 2B off the walls or in the gaps. I love taters and am happy with 200+ from the Sox.
I also love a good running game including hustle doubles, SB havoc, etc.
This roster should be good at taking full advantage of Fenway’s century old peculiarities. I am really looking forward to getting excited when Devers, Duran, Story, O’Neill, Grissom, Abreu, Rafaella, Refsnyder, Yoshida keep “moving the chain” with well placed, rally building XBH and hustle. Yes we need a big bat to get to 200+ HR, but more to provide offensive balance.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 3, 2024 22:38:37 GMT -5
Refsnyder posted a .308/.428/.400 vs LHP last year with an elite 15.9% walk rate and more walks than strikeouts. That’s very valuable imo, this team needs at-bats grinders. That was over 39 starts totaling 145 PA. The Sox had 40 games where they faced a lefty SP.
He also started 9 games vs. RHP and had 98 PA against them. He hit .159 / .261 / .195, but the OBP is misleading because he had 5 GDP's. His effective OBP was .196.
As I mentioned, the trade of Verdugo is likely to reduce his starts vs. LHP to 20, platooning with Duran on the road (more would require injuries to LHB). The only guy he'd pinch-hit for is McGuire.
Finally--and this is the killer--Dalbec vs. LHP has numbers nearly as good the last three years, and maybe just as goodpt better (better xwOBA, .366 to .357). He takes Ref's role as lefty-killer, in addition to backing up 1B and 3B.
A team that needs a full-time platoon partner in an OF spot (as we no longer do) would gladly pay him $1.8M.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 3, 2024 23:50:12 GMT -5
Dalbec in AAA was .269 / .381 / .557. Clay Davenport's MLB Translation system pays extra attention to high K rates. and correctly raised a red flag on Will Middlebrooks when everyone else was psyched about him.
He has Dalbec's AAA numbers translating as .256 / .331 / .485 (in an average league offense). That's a really good guy coming off the bench.
Do you know if that model has been updated to account for the strike zone changes or rule changes? I’d find it incredibly surprising to see Dalbec run a .330 OBP when he’s a career .297 guy and that number has fallen year after year (smaller sample last year). He’s a fine up and down guy and if he played better defense would be a really good bench player, but i think he should be traded or starting in worcester. The numbers in every league are adjured for league offense.
Re the incredible, he had a .301 career OBP in AAA (176 PA) before last year, when he had a .381. What you're saying is "I’d find it incredibly surprising if a player did something to improve himself."
In this case, it's entirely about the hot to cold ratio. And despite JBJ's failure to improve his ratio, there is precedence for guys fixing it. In 2006 I did a long analysis for the Sox on Carlos Pena that showed he was one of these guys -- red hot or ice cold -- and added my take on what he was doing wrong to try and bust out of his slumps. The Sox picked him up but couldn't find a space for him in the lineup or the next 40-man ... and he went from a 111 OPS + to 145 (three years before vs. three years after).
See my next reply for more.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 4, 2024 0:00:24 GMT -5
Refsnyder posted a .308/.428/.400 vs LHP last year with an elite 15.9% walk rate and more walks than strikeouts. That’s very valuable imo, this team needs at-bats grinders. That was over 39 starts totaling 145 PA. The Sox had 40 games where they faced a lefty SP.
He also started 9 games vs. RHP and had 98 PA against them. He hit .159 / .261 / .195, but the OBP is misleading because he had 5 GDP's. His effective OBP was .196.
As I mentioned, the trade of Verdugo is likely to reduce his starts vs. LHP to 20, platooning with Duran on the road (more would require injuries to LHB). The only guy he'd pinch-hit for is McGuire.
Finally--and this is the killer--Dalbec vs. LHP has numbers nearly as good the last three years, and maybe just as goodpt better (better xwOBA, .366 to .357). He takes Ref's role as lefty-killer, in addition to backing up 1B and 3B.
A team that needs a full-time platoon partner in an OF spot (as we no longer do) would gladly pay him $1.8M.
To be fair, Dalbec has fewer appearances against LHP over 2022 and 2023 combined than Refsynder last year. Dalbec only has 352 PA agaibst LHP in his career, and his 2021 (when he was also much better against RHP) is carrying a lot of the weight here. 2021 Dalbec would be a fine Refsnyder replacement even with his nightmarish glove, provided the Sox sign another OF (or I suppose are willing to promote Rafaela), but 2021 Dalbec also wouldn't still be languishing in AAA. What gives you confidence that he'll be that guy again? My fear is that he had some success at first as an unknown quantity, pitchers adjusted, and he just doesn't have the hit tool to keep up with their more optimal attack against him. I see him being a tad above average against lefties and unplayable against righties, with a bad glove to boot.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 4, 2024 0:26:26 GMT -5
Dalbec has about 950 mlb PA. For two brief periods, one about 95 PA and one about 120, he has hit like Jimmie Foxx. The rest of the time, he has hit like a poor backup SS. That doesn't include going 0-12 with 5k and zero BB in the postseason, when we were a few hits away from the World Series. Isn't it time to give up hope? See my previous post ...
But the larger issue is this. The Red Sox literally have an infinitely better set of information on Dalbec's great AAA year than we do, since we have only the rawest data, and know nothing about what he was working on or might have modified or changed.
What we do know is that Sox need a backup 1B / 3B who hits righty, so that the rare off days for Devers and Casas can be against lefty pitchers with a big platoon split. They had an interesting 3B in Urias who could have probably learned 1B and they traded him. They chose not to resign their very good veteran (and clubhouse model). That left one guy for the job. Period.
And since you suddenly seem to be a fan of small samples, the first thing he did upon his his September recall was outhit Devers and Casas for a week. So it's fairly evident that he still has the upside he always has; the difference is an apparent major improvement in staying this last year.
That Dalbec is the backup 1B / 3B is as clear as the starters at those positions.
So one might ask rhetorically, how does this post fit in a thread named "Predicting the 2024 Opening Say Roster?"
I am more than half serious about this: someone should start a thread called "Let's Start Bitching Now!" Those of us with a low tolerance for pointless complaints will be grateful.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 4, 2024 0:49:28 GMT -5
Among other things Refsnyder might be their backup first baseman, as things stand. Well, he has averaged 3.5 innings at 1B over the last 6 seasons. But that's zero over the last three years and 7 innings per year the previous 3, so maybe not.
(Replies to multiple posts are not working right ... apologies for all of these!)
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 4, 2024 11:17:28 GMT -5
Dalbec has about 950 mlb PA. For two brief periods, one about 95 PA and one about 120, he has hit like Jimmie Foxx. The rest of the time, he has hit like a poor backup SS. That doesn't include going 0-12 with 5k and zero BB in the postseason, when we were a few hits away from the World Series. Isn't it time to give up hope? See my previous post ...
But the larger issue is this. The Red Sox literally have an infinitely better set of information on Dalbec's great AAA year than we do, since we have only the rawest data, and know nothing about what he was working on or might have modified or changed.
What we do know is that Sox need a backup 1B / 3B who hits righty, so that the rare off days for Devers and Casas can be against lefty pitchers with a big platoon split. They had an interesting 3B in Urias who could have probably learned 1B and they traded him. They chose not to resign their very good veteran (and clubhouse model). That left one guy for the job. Period.
And since you suddenly seem to be a fan of small samples, the first thing he did upon his his September recall was outhit Devers and Casas for a week. So it's fairly evident that he still has the upside he always has; the difference is an apparent major improvement in staying this last year.
That Dalbec is the backup 1B / 3B is as clear as the starters at those positions.
So one might ask rhetorically, how does this post fit in a thread named "Predicting the 2024 Opening Say Roster?"
I am more than half serious about this: someone should start a thread called "Let's Start Bitching Now!" Those of us with a low tolerance for pointless complaints will be grateful.
Doesn’t the fact that the Sox have had all this data on him and have kept him in AAA kind of go against your own point?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 7, 2024 4:18:09 GMT -5
See my previous post ...
But the larger issue is this. The Red Sox literally have an infinitely better set of information on Dalbec's great AAA year than we do, since we have only the rawest data, and know nothing about what he was working on or might have modified or changed.
What we do know is that Sox need a backup 1B / 3B who hits righty, so that the rare off days for Devers and Casas can be against lefty pitchers with a big platoon split. They had an interesting 3B in Urias who could have probably learned 1B and they traded him. They chose not to resign their very good veteran (and clubhouse model). That left one guy for the job. Period.
And since you suddenly seem to be a fan of small samples, the first thing he did upon his his September recall was outhit Devers and Casas for a week. So it's fairly evident that he still has the upside he always has; the difference is an apparent major improvement in staying this last year.
That Dalbec is the backup 1B / 3B is as clear as the starters at those positions.
So one might ask rhetorically, how does this post fit in a thread named "Predicting the 2024 Opening Say Roster?"
I am more than half serious about this: someone should start a thread called "Let's Start Bitching Now!" Those of us with a low tolerance for pointless complaints will be grateful.
Doesn’t the fact that the Sox have had all this data on him and have kept him in AAA kind of go against your own point? No.
They kept him in AAA because he wasn't better than Justin Turner, who filled his potential role by moving from DH. And there were no injuries at either 3B or 1B until late in the season. As soon as one of those finally went on the IL, they called him up immediately. (And he outhit Devers and everyone else his first week!)
(They also called him up on 4/10 when Duvall got hurt, swapping him out for Duran after a week; on 5/7 when Arroyo got hurt, for the 6 days before they got Pablo Reyes; and from 6/23 to 6/27 when Verdugo was on the bereavement list. Three brief recalls to fill positions he didn't even play.)
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 7, 2024 6:56:09 GMT -5
Dalbec has about 950 mlb PA. For two brief periods, one about 95 PA and one about 120, he has hit like Jimmie Foxx. The rest of the time, he has hit like a poor backup SS. That doesn't include going 0-12 with 5k and zero BB in the postseason, when we were a few hits away from the World Series. Isn't it time to give up hope? See my previous post ...
But the larger issue is this. The Red Sox literally have an infinitely better set of information on Dalbec's great AAA year than we do, since we have only the rawest data, and know nothing about what he was working on or might have modified or changed.
What we do know is that Sox need a backup 1B / 3B who hits righty, so that the rare off days for Devers and Casas can be against lefty pitchers with a big platoon split. They had an interesting 3B in Urias who could have probably learned 1B and they traded him. They chose not to resign their very good veteran (and clubhouse model). That left one guy for the job. Period.
And since you suddenly seem to be a fan of small samples, the first thing he did upon his his September recall was outhit Devers and Casas for a week. So it's fairly evident that he still has the upside he always has; the difference is an apparent major improvement in staying this last year.
That Dalbec is the backup 1B / 3B is as clear as the starters at those positions.
So one might ask rhetorically, how does this post fit in a thread named "Predicting the 2024 Opening Say Roster?"
I am more than half serious about this: someone should start a thread called "Let's Start Bitching Now!" Those of us with a low tolerance for pointless complaints will be grateful.
Yeah the first thing Dalbec did in September was "outhit Devers and Casas for [5 days]." The second thing he did was get 1 single and 1 walk in his last 21 PA of the year with 14 strikeouts. 14 strikeouts in 21 PA!!! 66% K rate. Similar to how he started the year with two singles and a walk, then in his next 8 games over three call-ups went 0-12 with two walks and 8 strikeouts. 57% K rate over those 14 PA. Yeah it really looks like he figured out how to stop that hot-streak/cold-streak problem. His improvement in 2023 was that at age 28 he had learned how to punish AAA pitching in a hitter's park.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 7, 2024 8:09:28 GMT -5
Doesn’t the fact that the Sox have had all this data on him and have kept him in AAA kind of go against your own point? No.
They kept him in AAA because he wasn't better than Justin Turner, who filled his potential role by moving from DH. And there were no injuries at either 3B or 1B until late in the season. As soon as one of those finally went on the IL, they called him up immediately. (And he outhit Devers and everyone else his first week!)
(They also called him up on 4/10 when Duvall got hurt, swapping him out for Duran after a week; on 5/7 when Arroyo got hurt, for the 6 days before they got Pablo Reyes; and from 6/23 to 6/27 when Verdugo was on the bereavement list. Three brief recalls to fill positions he didn't even play.)
Ah yes, nothing says confidence in a player in three brief call up stints where they glue him to the bench and one week of production late in the season. Consider me extremely unconvinced. I’ll add that I’m pretty shocked a self-proclaimed numbers guy would attempt to extract anything meaningful from a one week sample, especially given the context of a hitter like Dalbec.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 7, 2024 8:17:42 GMT -5
If Dalbec ends up being a RHH who plays vs lefties I'm fine with it, give him one last shot to see if he can be a piece for the team. If they end up going a separate less risky direction for said RHH then I'm all for that too.
I guess put another way if Duvall is attainable then go get him and keep Dalbec in AAA or trade him, if the idea is to instead sign Garrett Cooper for that role I'd just assume let Dalbec have that crack at it instead of Cooper. In the grand scheme of 2024 results I highly doubt Dalbec vs Cooper is going to be make or break though so I'm pretty indifferent on it either way.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 7, 2024 9:41:51 GMT -5
Dalbec has about 950 mlb PA. For two brief periods, one about 95 PA and one about 120, he has hit like Jimmie Foxx. The rest of the time, he has hit like a poor backup SS. That doesn't include going 0-12 with 5k and zero BB in the postseason, when we were a few hits away from the World Series. Isn't it time to give up hope?
What we do know is that Sox need a backup 1B / 3B who hits righty, so that the rare off days for Devers and Casas can be against lefty pitchers with a big platoon split. They had an interesting 3B in Urias who could have probably learned 1B and they traded him. They chose not to resign their very good veteran (and clubhouse model). That left one guy for the job. Period. I don't agree with the premise in the first sentence here. Casas and Devers combined, if healthy, are going to have something like 10 off days all season. That's not something you need to budget a roster spot for. I'm completely fine with using a combination of Refsnyder/Grissom/Reyes (all righties) to cover their positions for those days. If they get injured then you call Dalbec up to play it full time.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 7, 2024 9:53:11 GMT -5
What we do know is that Sox need a backup 1B / 3B who hits righty, so that the rare off days for Devers and Casas can be against lefty pitchers with a big platoon split. They had an interesting 3B in Urias who could have probably learned 1B and they traded him. They chose not to resign their very good veteran (and clubhouse model). That left one guy for the job. Period. I don't agree with the premise in the first sentence here. Casas and Devers combined, if healthy, are going to have something like 10 off days all season. That's not something you need to budget a roster spot for. I'm completely fine with using a combination of Refsnyder/Grissom/Reyes (all righties) to cover their positions for those days. If they get injured then you call Dalbec up to play it full time. 10 off days seems to little to budget between Casas/Devers even with health permitting, I'd think it'd be closer to 20-25. I'd also add that there's probably another 15-20 games a year where they might want to DH one of them to get a pseudo day off so I could easily see a scenario where said RHH 1st/3rd baseman gets 40-50 games between those two positions. Is that something they need to go out and spend big bucks on or allocate big resources to acquiring? No probably not but it wouldn't be the worst allocation of resources either.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 7, 2024 10:08:50 GMT -5
I don't agree with the premise in the first sentence here. Casas and Devers combined, if healthy, are going to have something like 10 off days all season. That's not something you need to budget a roster spot for. I'm completely fine with using a combination of Refsnyder/Grissom/Reyes (all righties) to cover their positions for those days. If they get injured then you call Dalbec up to play it full time. 10 off days seems to little to budget between Casas/Devers even with health permitting, I'd think it'd be closer to 20-25. I'd also add that there's probably another 15-20 games a year where they might want to DH one of them to get a pseudo day off so I could easily see a scenario where said RHH 1st/3rd baseman gets 40-50 games between those two positions. Is that something they need to go out and spend big bucks on or allocate big resources to acquiring? No probably not but it wouldn't be the worst allocation of resources either. Eh I really don't think there's 40-50 games at those positions unless there's an injury. Devers played 151 games at 3rd last year, and Casas has stated it's a goal to play all 162 games at first. We'll see I guess.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 7, 2024 10:15:39 GMT -5
Casas does not have a spotless health history...
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 7, 2024 11:04:30 GMT -5
Casas does not have a spotless health history... If Casas gets hurt you call Dalbec up to play full time (assuming they don't sign another 1B guy). But you don't need to keep Dalbec on the MLB roster for him to fill that in-case-of-emergency role.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 10, 2024 16:10:16 GMT -5
A few notes of thought. Im ok deal kenley if its to add snell or monty Im only ok on dealing Duran if its top bring back mob ready pitching. Is Yoshida tradable?
Here is what i think is la reasonable outcome. I think its 90 win possible. Maybe probable.
Sign monty. ( or snell). 25M per with some opt outs. 4 /100. Opt outs after 2 and 3. 25 mil pakyer option for 5. 25m team option for 6.
Sign another starter. Bauer, clevenger, ryu lorenzen. Who ever cheapest.
Put whitlock as high leveage multi inning beast he was.
Give houck a chance to close.
Start year 6 man or not. More than likely this will take care of itself through injury or bad play.
Trade jansen for $ relief.
Try trade yoshida for $ relief.
Sign what ever RH OF u can for reasonable. I prefer solor or duval
Might be able to squeeze under the cap. Lineuo be a bit better with solar 3rd. But not the same defence or flexibility and definitely cost more
Duran LF Devers 3b Story SS Casis 1B Duval RF /dh O Neil CF DH Grissom 2B Wong C Abreu/ rafaella cf/rf
Monty Bello Pivetta Giotello Crawford Clevinger
Martiin Houck Wink Whitlock Berardinio Schreiber Jaques Kelly And so n
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Post by incandenza on Feb 10, 2024 16:57:03 GMT -5
A few notes of thought. Im ok deal kenley if its to add snell or monty Im only ok on dealing Duran if its top bring back mob ready pitching. Is Yoshida tradable? Here is what i think is la reasonable outcome. I think its 90 win possible. Maybe probable. Sign monty. ( or snell). 25M per with some opt outs. 4 /100. Opt outs after 2 and 3. 25 mil pakyer option for 5. 25m team option for 6. Sign another starter. Bauer, clevenger, ryu lorenzen. Who ever cheapest. Put whitlock as high leveage multi inning beast he was. Give houck a chance to close. Start year 6 man or not. More than likely this will take care of itself through injury or bad play. Trade jansen for $ relief. Try trade yoshida for $ relief. Sign what ever RH OF u can for reasonable. I prefer solor or duval Might be able to squeeze under the cap. Lineuo be a bit better with solar 3rd. But not the same defence or flexibility and definitely cost more Duran LF Devers 3b Story SS Casis 1B Duval RF /dh O Neil CF DH Grissom 2B Wong C Abreu/ rafaella cf/rf Monty Bello Pivetta Giotello Crawford Clevinger Martiin Houck Wink Whitlock Berardinio Schreiber Jaques Kelly And so n In this scenario they add Montgomery, who gives them maybe +2 wins relative to whoever he displaces. They add Clevinger, who's probably not better than their current options, but maybe the depth gains them a win. They downgrade from Yoshida to Duvall, which is -1 or 2 wins. And Jansen's innings go to a back-of-the-bullpen guy instead, so maybe -1 win.
I have that as netting 0 to 1 wins, all told.
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Post by iamnotluistiant on Feb 11, 2024 14:14:20 GMT -5
I hear Chris and Ian's voices in the back of my mind (from the Sox Prospects podcast) talking about how the gap between AAA and the Majors is the widest it has ever been right now.
Lots of us fans are really discounting how difficult a jump it is and I think are assuming absolutely best outcomes with all our prospects when looking at the 2024 Sox. Dalbec is a clear example of this---he has some underlying metrics, but he shows NO ability to adjust to major league pitching. I think that if any major league club thought that he could, the Sox would have traded him for something and not let him spend the year at AAA.
Counting on him to be a key bench piece just shows how poor the bench depth is on this year's edition of the Sox.
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Post by cba82 on Feb 16, 2024 18:57:02 GMT -5
Why is this site still showing “Acquisition” as our right fielder? How likely is that at this point?
I’ve just been thinking it will be Wilyer Abreu out there.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Feb 17, 2024 8:04:05 GMT -5
Why is this site still showing “Acquisition” as our right fielder? How likely is that at this point? I’ve just been thinking it will be Wilyer Abreu out there. Abreu is essentially being penciled in for 400 ABs by management. I think you could however make a case that Rafaela and Abreu are competing for a similar job. So it might be easier to put acquisition rather than Abreu/Rafaela.
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Post by costpet on Feb 17, 2024 8:58:14 GMT -5
Cutting Yoshida and Jansen just to save money? What are we...Oakland? Maybe they're planning for empty seats this year, because they know they'll get plenty of them.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Feb 17, 2024 21:42:17 GMT -5
& I thought we were tAmPa?
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