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2024 Red Sox win projections
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 23, 2024 7:50:56 GMT -5
With Houck while yes ideally he'd develop a better ability to get LHH out but the bigger issue in my eyes is his 3rd time through the order #s are terrible. 1st through the order 3.03 FIP and 3.49 xFIP, 2nd time 3.58 & 3.63 3rd time 6.61 & 5.20.
Is that conditioning that he can work on and improve or is that just his body's limit? That's the big question to me with Houck. If he can improve those 3rd time through the order #s to be around 4 FIP instead of 6+ he's probably a legitimate #3 maybe even #2 starter. If he can't he's either an opener you pull every time after his 2nd time through the order or a bulk RP which still has value but ideally he finds another gear and becomes that legitimate starter that I hope he can be.
Whitlock, yea that is just whether he can stay healthy or not. If he can he's probably a viable #4 starter with upside of a #2.
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Post by ephus on Jan 23, 2024 10:15:39 GMT -5
I am in very different spot with this team than any in recent memory. If they hold, I think they are a 75 win team ; but I honestly don't care about record. I want to see growth from guys like Casas, Bello, Crawford, Abreu and Masa. I want to see Story, Whitlock and Duran get through a season without injury setbacks. And I want to see the Portland Sea Dogs blow away the Eastern League for three months before Mayer, Teel and Anthony are promoted and positioned for a possible cup of coffee in September. Finally, I want to see an active front office taking steps to show the fanbase that we are in fact moving towards something. To me, that means being aggressive with the development of guys across the system, and taking a chance on some high ceiling arms in daft; and pulling the trigger on deals at the treade deadline the position the team moving forward.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 23, 2024 11:30:05 GMT -5
It's just hard to see how the starting pitching is better at this moment. The Sale and Paxton durability issues are well-documented, but they turned in a combined 2.8 bWAR last year. Giolito will replace a chunk of that, but it's also not fair to expect nobody else to regress or get hurt. If they can repeat the 5.6 bWAR from Bello/Crawford, then they're in great shape. But the depth is really concerning if one or the other isn't right. The infield is where they should be a lot better. A Casas-Grisson-Story-Devers infield, if everyone hits their upside, is in the conversation for one of the better ones in baseball. You also have to factor in a huge difference in the off seasons of Houck and Whitlock. How would you factor that in, though? Like yeah, maybe that raises the upside, but neither are players for whom the median is any higher. Whitlock was supposed to step forward last year after a more stable offseason with a more defined role, and that obviously didn't happen. As far as Houck's concerned, it's not really preparation or offseason schedule that I've ever been concerned about, it's his inability to get left-handed hitters out. I went into last year a big believer that he deserved a true chance to be a starter. He got that, and I think it's more clear than ever that he's a perfect fit for a bulk reliever role where teams can't comfortably stack lefties against him.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 24, 2024 11:38:08 GMT -5
You also have to factor in a huge difference in the off seasons of Houck and Whitlock. How would you factor that in, though? Like yeah, maybe that raises the upside, but neither are players for whom the median is any higher. Whitlock was supposed to step forward last year after a more stable offseason with a more defined role, and that obviously didn't happen. As far as Houck's concerned, it's not really preparation or offseason schedule that I've ever been concerned about, it's his inability to get left-handed hitters out. I went into last year a big believer that he deserved a true chance to be a starter. He got that, and I think it's more clear than ever that he's a perfect fit for a bulk reliever role where teams can't comfortably stack lefties against him. If the question is whether or not the Sox are in a better position relative to those two, I can't see how they aren't. Being unable to pitch for 6 months or whatever at that stage of their careers had to have had an effect. Starting the year with those two on the shelf and questions surrounding Sale, Kluber and Paxton necessitated depth, lots of depth. This year we don't have those issues and we've added a workhorse in Gialito to go along with Pivetta who pretty much is ready around the clock. Specifically, regarding Houck, who knows how his season would have turned out with a normal off season. We should find out this year but, does it really matter whether he's a mid rotation arm or dominant bulk reliever, both have value. If Giolito, Bello, Crawford and Pivetta are four of the five, we still have Houck, Whitlock and Wincowski (and Fitts) as the FIFTH starter. That's clearly a better position to me. ADD: How many extra pitches do you think the starters had to pitch last year because Kiké was our shortsto to go along with a rotating mess at second base ?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 24, 2024 12:14:18 GMT -5
Think about the timing of these injuries.
Duvall. He was looking like the second coming of Barry Bonds when he broke his wrist. One of the best starts ever for a Sox player, poof gone.
Chang. Delayed by the WBC then delayed further by visa issues he arrived in camp with about 5 days before the season start. A plus defender at all 4 infield positions he struggled with the bat. Then all of a sudden he found it and was hitting line drives all over the field then boom a broken hamate. It takes a year to recover fully from a hamate (see the Kalish thread for an extensive look at hamate injuries).It wasn't the same Chang that returned to the field.
Kluber. It wasn't so much that he sucked when he was pitching, at least he was pitching. When he went down, it necessitated the bullpen being used as the fifth starter and a host of callups that just weren't ready.
McGuire. It's not so much that McGuire was contributing but at the point when he went down, Wong was statistically near the top for catchers both offensively and defensively. The lack of a reasonable backup forced Cora to use Wong everyday. No rest and his game took a nosedive. Hopefully Perez will at least be a reasonable emergency catcher.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 24, 2024 13:32:59 GMT -5
Think about the timing of these injuries. Duvall. He was looking like the second coming of Barry Bonds when he broke his wrist. One of the best starts ever for a Sox player, poof gone. Chang. Delayed by the WBC then delayed further by visa issues he arrived in camp with about 5 days before the season start. A plus defender at all 4 infield positions he struggled with the bat. Then all of a sudden he found it and was hitting line drives all over the field then boom a broken hamate. It takes a year to recover fully from a hamate (see the Kalish thread for an extensive look at hamate injuries).It wasn't the same Chang that returned to the field. Kluber. It wasn't so much that he sucked when he was pitching, at least he was pitching. When he went down, it necessitated the bullpen being used as the fifth starter and a host of callups that just weren't ready. McGuire. It's not so much that McGuire was contributing but at the point when he went down, Wong was statistically near the top for catchers both offensively and defensively. The lack of a reasonable backup forced Cora to use Wong everyday. No rest and his game took a nosedive. Hopefully Perez will at least be a reasonable emergency catcher. Your painful reminders are excellent points about 2023 and also remind me of star power issues: Masa’s WBC likely contributed to his mid-season swoon, Duran’s injury as he was finally living up to his pedigree, Turner’s foot at the same time, plus issues on the returns of Story, Sale, Paxton, Schreiber and the list goes on. All teams have injuries but IMO they could have had that WC with better health. 2024 Sox can be a good team. C’mon Craig
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 25, 2024 10:36:10 GMT -5
Heading into the season, the Red Sox aren’t likely to make anyone’s Top 10 list for best pitching staff on paper.
But Bailey won’t use that as an excuse. Instead his plan is to defy the prognostications of the “experts.”
“I'm excited about our group,” he said. “If our industry doesn't [end up viewing] our pitching staff individually at higher tiers, or certain guys going into free agency or going into arbitration [don’t view us that way], I just didn't do my job.
“I think that there's talent in our rotation, there’s opportunity, and helping them understand who they are and giving them identities and creating some accountability is going to be kind of our name of the game. I'm excited about this group. We want to get to a place where we don't have to supplement our Major League roster with large investments. Hopefully, we can do that. That’s the goal.”mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzGwJvfQkWdDBVtMnFhzsmhTCqzn
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Post by briam on Jan 26, 2024 10:30:22 GMT -5
Feels about right.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 26, 2024 10:50:11 GMT -5
I would be interested to see variance in these projections. In my head the Red Sox have higher variance on their projections because they’re relying on young guys and guys coming off injuries, but I don’t know whether that’s actually true.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 26, 2024 11:31:45 GMT -5
If I'm doing the math right, the Red Sox' and Orioles' WAR projections are identical.
Only 4 WAR separates the top of the AL East (NYY) from the bottom (BOS/BAL): 43.4 vs. 39.4.
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Post by wamderingdude on Jan 26, 2024 11:43:59 GMT -5
If I'm doing the math right, the Red Sox' and Orioles' WAR projections are identical. Only 4 WAR separates the top of the AL East (NYY) from the bottom (BOS/BAL): 43.4 vs. 39.4. Just taking a quick look at fangraphs i see the red sox at ~ 37.5 and the orioles at just under 40. The main reason for the orioles low projection is their pitching war is 6th worst in the sport compared to the the red sox being in the middle of the pack. If i was an orioles fan i would be worried about the pitching, but that feels awfully low.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 26, 2024 11:58:49 GMT -5
If I'm doing the math right, the Red Sox' and Orioles' WAR projections are identical. Only 4 WAR separates the top of the AL East (NYY) from the bottom (BOS/BAL): 43.4 vs. 39.4. Just taking a quick look at fangraphs i see the red sox at ~ 37.5 and the orioles at just under 40. The main reason for the orioles low projection is their pitching war is 6th worst in the sport compared to the the red sox being in the middle of the pack. If i was an orioles fan i would be worried about the pitching, but that feels awfully low. I think you're looking at blended DC projections and incandenza is looking at ZiPS DC projections. ZiPS likes the Red Sox much more than Steamer and likes the Yankees much less. Orioles are roughly even in both. I also haven't checked to see if they've actually properly adjusted the WAR totals to sum to 1000, which I know before was an issue, I suspect likely the ZiPS WAR totals are a little too high across the board. Add: Reads as if I'm singling out ZiPS - both ZiPS and Steamer DC WAR totals are likely too high across the board. The blended DC WARs add up to 1108.7 which is 108.7 wins too many. There's also 64.3 WAR projected on the free agent market, but can't tell how much that will add to the team totals until those guys are signed.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 26, 2024 12:13:55 GMT -5
If I'm doing the math right, the Red Sox' and Orioles' WAR projections are identical. Only 4 WAR separates the top of the AL East (NYY) from the bottom (BOS/BAL): 43.4 vs. 39.4. Which circles back to a point you have made previously how it would be pretty indefensible of them to not at least add a 1 year SP and a 1-2 year RHH bat. If these projections are close then the correct SP and RHH hitter could easily be the difference between them making the playoffs and them missing out by a game or two. Let's say the 82 win projection is close but they out perform it by 2-3 Ws. Now they're at 84-85 wins, two signings that prove to be good signings could easily swing them 3-4 wins and they're at 87-88 wins. The Jays made the playoffs with 89 wins last year so it's certainly do-able for an AL team to win 87-88 games and make the playoffs. Not to mention they could do all this and still stay under the LT.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 26, 2024 12:30:42 GMT -5
If I'm doing the math right, the Red Sox' and Orioles' WAR projections are identical. Only 4 WAR separates the top of the AL East (NYY) from the bottom (BOS/BAL): 43.4 vs. 39.4. Which circles back to a point you have made previously how it would be pretty indefensible of them to not at least add a 1 year SP and a 1-2 year RHH bat. If these projections are close then the correct SP and RHH hitter could easily be the difference between them making the playoffs and them missing out by a game or two. Let's say the 82 win projection is close but they out perform it by 2-3 Ws. Now they're at 84-85 wins, two signings that prove to be good signings could easily swing them 3-4 wins and they're at 87-88 wins. The Jays made the playoffs with 89 wins last year so it's certainly do-able for an AL team to win 87-88 games and make the playoffs. Not to mention they could do all this and still stay under the LT. If the Red Sox models looked like the ZiPS ones not signing Montgomery or Snell would be almost unfathomable to me given their current payroll. Right now the Red Sox 5th starter is Houck who projects for 1.3 WAR, if you replace that with Montgomery's 3.1 you add 1.8 to the rotation, but you're also replacing innings in the bullpen that otherwise will go to the likes of Jacquez/Kelly/Weissert with Houck (or starts that otherwise go to Murphy/Walter/Criswell), so it's probably more like adding 2.5ish projected wins which would get the Red Sox pretty close to the top of the ALE by ZiPS modeling.
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Post by chaimtime on Jan 26, 2024 12:38:34 GMT -5
Seems evident at this point that they’re expecting Crawford and Pivetta to out pitch their projections and hoping one of Houck or Whitlock can do the same. I think it’d be pretty disappointing if Crawford and Pivetta both put up 4.5 ERAs/FIPs, so I get where they’re coming from. Don’t love it, but I get it.
I know they’re talking up Winckowski as a rotation option, too, but given how good he was as the rubber-armed bullpen ace last year I’d be surprised if he ended up in the rotation.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 26, 2024 12:47:02 GMT -5
Seems evident at this point that they’re expecting Crawford and Pivetta to out pitch their projections and hoping one of Houck or Whitlock can do the same. I think it’d be pretty disappointing if Crawford and Pivetta both put up 4.5 ERAs/FIPs, so I get where they’re coming from. Don’t love it, but I get it. I know they’re talking up Winckowski as a rotation option, too, but given how good he was as the rubber-armed bullpen ace last year I’d be surprised if he ended up in the rotation. I neither love nor get it. They can hope all those guys overperform and it would still be helpful to add a starter they could easily afford.
I do feel like we aren't talking about this Winckowski business enough. It's pretty interesting that they seem to want him to start. But if they want all of Houck, Whitlock, and Winckowski to get a substantial number of starts then the bullpen starts to look awfully thin.
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Post by chaimtime on Jan 26, 2024 13:00:55 GMT -5
Which circles back to a point you have made previously how it would be pretty indefensible of them to not at least add a 1 year SP and a 1-2 year RHH bat. If these projections are close then the correct SP and RHH hitter could easily be the difference between them making the playoffs and them missing out by a game or two. Let's say the 82 win projection is close but they out perform it by 2-3 Ws. Now they're at 84-85 wins, two signings that prove to be good signings could easily swing them 3-4 wins and they're at 87-88 wins. The Jays made the playoffs with 89 wins last year so it's certainly do-able for an AL team to win 87-88 games and make the playoffs. Not to mention they could do all this and still stay under the LT. If the Red Sox models looked like the ZiPS ones not signing Montgomery or Snell would be almost unfathomable to me given their current payroll. Right now the Red Sox 5th starter is Houck who projects for 1.3 WAR, if you replace that with Montgomery's 3.1 you add 1.8 to the rotation, but you're also replacing innings in the bullpen that otherwise will go to the likes of Jacquez/Kelly/Weissert with Houck (or starts that otherwise go to Murphy/Walter/Criswell), so it's probably more like adding 2.5ish projected wins which would get the Red Sox pretty close to the top of the ALE by ZiPS modeling. What if their internal models also really like Houck or Whitlock, though? If they think there’s a decent chance (40% or so?) that one of those guys hits 2.5-3 WAR then it would make less sense to drop $25 million/year on a free agent starter. Based on the number of guys they churned through who sucked here but turned good after ending up in Tampa or LA, it seems like the Bloom FO was pretty good at identifying pitchers who could be molded into effective MLB pieces, but the coaching staff was very bad at following through on that. I know a lot of people are skeptical of how quickly the impact of the new pitching infrastructure will be felt, but it didn’t take long for Breslow to beef up the Cubs’ pitching system and Kyle Boddy himself said he feels he can make a quick impact, so I don’t think it’s totally out of the question.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 26, 2024 13:03:09 GMT -5
Seems evident at this point that they’re expecting Crawford and Pivetta to out pitch their projections and hoping one of Houck or Whitlock can do the same. I think it’d be pretty disappointing if Crawford and Pivetta both put up 4.5 ERAs/FIPs, so I get where they’re coming from. Don’t love it, but I get it. I know they’re talking up Winckowski as a rotation option, too, but given how good he was as the rubber-armed bullpen ace last year I’d be surprised if he ended up in the rotation. I neither love nor get it. They can hope all those guys overperform and it would still be helpful to add a starter they could easily afford.
I do feel like we aren't talking about this Winckowski business enough. It's pretty interesting that they seem to want him to start. But if they want all of Houck, Whitlock, and Winckowski to get a substantial number of starts then the bullpen starts to look awfully thin.
Yep, if they want all three of them to be stretched out as SPs then at least 1 if not 2 of them will have to be in AAA unless they want a 7 man rotation. Bello, Giolito, Pivetta and Crawford all deserve to be in the rotation to start the year at least in my opinion. Maybe they go 6 man outta the gate to see who sticks but I wouldn't bet on that either. Either way if you take 2 of those guys out of the pen the bullpen now is very thin IMO.
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Post by 0ap0 on Jan 26, 2024 13:08:41 GMT -5
Agreed. Even if you're bullish on our major league pitchers, there don't quite seem to be enough of them. At least not comfortably.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 26, 2024 13:13:56 GMT -5
If the Red Sox models looked like the ZiPS ones not signing Montgomery or Snell would be almost unfathomable to me given their current payroll. Right now the Red Sox 5th starter is Houck who projects for 1.3 WAR, if you replace that with Montgomery's 3.1 you add 1.8 to the rotation, but you're also replacing innings in the bullpen that otherwise will go to the likes of Jacquez/Kelly/Weissert with Houck (or starts that otherwise go to Murphy/Walter/Criswell), so it's probably more like adding 2.5ish projected wins which would get the Red Sox pretty close to the top of the ALE by ZiPS modeling. What if their internal models also really like Houck or Whitlock, though? If they think there’s a decent chance (40% or so?) that one of those guys hits 2.5-3 WAR then it would make less sense to drop $25 million/year on a free agent starter. Based on the number of guys they churned through who sucked here but turned good after ending up in Tampa or LA, it seems like the Bloom FO was pretty good at identifying pitchers who could be molded into effective MLB pieces, but the coaching staff was very bad at following through on that. I know a lot of people are skeptical of how quickly the impact of the new pitching infrastructure will be felt, but it didn’t take long for Breslow to beef up the Cubs’ pitching system and Kyle Boddy himself said he feels he can make a quick impact, so I don’t think it’s totally out of the question. I don’t think that’s totally outlandish but even in this scenario I’d still want them to add depth and they’ve already passed on most of the best options for that.
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Post by larrycook on Jan 26, 2024 13:32:52 GMT -5
Plus giolotta but minus sale. (Minus 3) Plus abreau but minus verdugo (minus 2) Plus Grissom and thankfully minus the cast of 2nd base characters from last year. (Plus 1) Plus o’Neil but minus Duvall (minus 2) Minus turner hurts? ? (Minus 2) All other changes net to zero. Equals 70 win season!
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Jan 26, 2024 13:44:09 GMT -5
I'm no Fields Medal winner but that math looks pretty shaky.
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Post by chaimtime on Jan 26, 2024 13:48:29 GMT -5
It’s not like they’re going to run an eight man rotation and a five man bullpen. The rotation is probably gonna be Giolito/Bello/Pivetta/Crawford and then whoever wins the fifth starter job in spring training—let’s just say it’s Houck for simplicity’s sake. The guys who lose that competition are gonna end up in the bullpen.
If one of Pivetta, Crawford, or Houck falters, then they swap roles with someone who ended up in the pen, probably Whitlock. If you have a short term injury, you can probably get away with a Whitlock/Winckowski piggyback game, or you can call up Criswell and give him a spot start if they’re too gassed for that. If you have a long term injury, then one of them moves up into the rotation for a while. If you have multiple long-term injuries in the rotation, well, you’re probably screwed anyway, so it’s hard for me to get too worked up about not having the depth to cover that.
You still have Martin and Kenley (if he sticks around) holding down the late innings, with Winck, Schreiber, Bernardino, and Slaten likely to get the lion’s share of middle relief innings. You have Campbell and Weissert as MLB-ready depth, Murphy/Jacques/Walter to come up if Bernardino gets hurt or turns into a pumpkin, and on and on. There seems to be plenty of depth to me. It’s not like other teams have a dozen eighth-inning guys on their depth charts and the Sox are relying on an army of Cooper Criswells.
I would have loved to see Seth Lugo or James Paxton coming into camp to compete for the fifth starter spot, but I think some of you guys are really underestimating how tough a sell that is at the negotiating table when there are other teams willing to guarantee them a rotation spot. And if you have six or seven guys you’re comfortable with as starters—not just as depth options, guys you can see being rotation mainstays—it’s fair to question the wisdom of giving another guy eight figures just for a little added piece of mind.
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Post by chaimtime on Jan 26, 2024 13:50:17 GMT -5
Plus giolotta but minus sale. (Minus 3) Plus abreau but minus verdugo (minus 2) Plus Grissom and thankfully minus the cast of 2nd base characters from last year. (Plus 1) Plus o’Neil but minus Duvall (minus 2) Minus turner hurts? ? (Minus 2) All other changes net to zero. Equals 70 win season! this feels like when the Cubs hired Joe Madden and ESPN said that he would give them +20 wins by himself
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 26, 2024 14:05:19 GMT -5
I think I said 93 last year. Tempering expectations, going with 91. Internal improvement and we get another pitcher. I'm not quite that bullish but I do see them changing some minds. I believe they'll be close to 88 winds and possibly getting in the playoffs. A lot of it comes down to health. I've always been an O'Neil fan and believe Story will come back big. I also would like another starter and I would be surprised if they don't add one of Lorenzen, Ryu, or Clevinger. Soler would be nice but I think this bunch will surprise and score runs. Yeah...88!
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