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Post by adamgregory81 on Apr 3, 2024 19:34:35 GMT -5
This team has plenty of upside (whether they put it all together is another question), but optimistically…
Pitching - Bello gets a little better, Crawford and Pivetta get a bit more consistent Propped up by a dominant bull pen and consistency up top, Whitlock and Houck are consistently pulled after dominant 4-5 inning starts.
Offensively - Casas breaks out Grissom comes back from injury strong and hits like it looked like he would his first year in Atlanta Story gets back to 80% of Colorado Story Devers has a career year (he’s 27, his time is now) Rafa silences the naysayers, despite a consistently high swing rate, hits like an average MLBer, but the electricity he brings to the team from the sports center highlights he makes night after night improves team morale and the bottom line. Tyler O’Neil shows injuries were a fluke and has a career year (again, he’s 29, there’s no reason to think this will not be his best year yet) Duran continues his improvement from last year Wong plays like he played for the good half of last year.
If all of those things happen, this offense is absolutely stacked and the pitching is fine. Let’s call it 105 wins (a slight drop off from the 5-2 start), and lots of post season awards.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 3, 2024 20:25:58 GMT -5
This team has plenty of upside (whether they put it all together is another question), but optimistically… Pitching - Bello gets a little better, Crawford and Pivetta get a bit more consistent Propped up by a dominant bull pen and consistency up top, Whitlock and Houck are consistently pulled after dominant 4-5 inning starts. Offensively - Casas breaks out Grissom comes back from injury strong and hits like it looked like he would his first year in Atlanta Story gets back to 80% of Colorado Story Devers has a career year (he’s 27, his time is now) Rafa silences the naysayers, despite a consistently high swing rate, hits like an average MLBer, but the electricity he brings to the team from the sports center highlights he makes night after night improves team morale and the bottom line. Tyler O’Neil shows injuries were a fluke and has a career year (again, he’s 29, there’s no reason to think this will not be his best year yet) Duran continues his improvement from last year Wong plays like he played for the good half of last year. If all of those things happen, this offense is absolutely stacked and the pitching is fine. Let’s call it 105 wins (a slight drop off from the 5-2 start), and lots of post season awards. If they can play the A's every day I'd like their chances of winning 105.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 4, 2024 8:51:11 GMT -5
FG playoff odds now projecting the Red Sox for 81.1 wins - over .500 baby!
And still last place in the AL East. I have to admit, part of me is rooting for like an 86-win last place finish, just so we get another offseason of people saying the team is terrible because they "finished in last place two three years in a row" and I can enjoy complaing about it.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 4, 2024 9:08:30 GMT -5
FG playoff odds now projecting the Red Sox for 81.1 wins - over .500 baby!
And still last place in the AL East. I have to admit, part of me is rooting for like an 86-win last place finish, just so we get another offseason of people saying the team is terrible because they "finished in last place two three years in a row" and I can enjoy complaing about it.
Picture this: the Sox finish tied for 4th in the AL East, but get the last wild card spot via a tiebreaker and go on to win the World Series. Then we get to complain loudly all offseason about how they have three consecutive last-place finishes and what a disgrace that is for the city of Boston. Sell the team!!!
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Post by asm18 on Apr 4, 2024 9:40:29 GMT -5
Most one week stretches one games aren't going to have a huge impact on a team's playoffs odds, especially when most teams will play close to .500 in so small a sample. But a very good (or very bad) start can certainly have an effect:
Pittsburgh (5-1) - playoff odds jumped from 16.8% to 26.4%.
Marlins (0-7) - playoff odds dropped from 27.9% to 9.4%.
Hopefully this Sox team can avoid the early season hole that the 2019 team (6-13 to start the year, didn't get to .500 until like May 8th) and the 2022 team (were 10-19 at one point, didn't get back to .500 until June 5th) got themselves into. So far so good...
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Post by terriblehondo on Apr 4, 2024 9:56:22 GMT -5
FG playoff odds now projecting the Red Sox for 81.1 wins - over .500 baby!
And still last place in the AL East. I have to admit, part of me is rooting for like an 86-win last place finish, just so we get another offseason of people saying the team is terrible because they "finished in last place two three years in a row" and I can enjoy complaing about it.
Picture this: the Sox finish tied for 4th in the AL East, but get the last wild card spot via a tiebreaker and go on to win the World Series. Then we get to complain loudly all offseason about how they have three consecutive last-place finishes and what a disgrace that is for the city of Boston. Sell the team!!! So you guys on hoping for mediocracy and to catch lightning in a bottle so you can say I told you so? Well I guess that is more likely than me rooting for guys to take a step forward and actually be a good team.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 4, 2024 12:04:59 GMT -5
Picture this: the Sox finish tied for 4th in the AL East, but get the last wild card spot via a tiebreaker and go on to win the World Series. Then we get to complain loudly all offseason about how they have three consecutive last-place finishes and what a disgrace that is for the city of Boston. Sell the team!!! So you guys on hoping for mediocracy and to catch lightning in a bottle so you can say I told you so? Well I guess that is more likely than me rooting for guys to take a step forward and actually be a good team. It's a sad state of affairs that I'm only mostly sure you're joking 😅
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 4, 2024 23:19:24 GMT -5
FG playoff odds now projecting the Red Sox for 81.1 wins - over .500 baby!
And still last place in the AL East. I have to admit, part of me is rooting for like an 86-win last place finish, just so we get another offseason of people saying the team is terrible because they "finished in last place two three years in a row" and I can enjoy complaing about it.
Picture this: the Sox finish tied for 4th in the AL East, but get the last wild card spot via a tiebreaker and go on to win the World Series. Then we get to complain loudly all offseason about how they have three consecutive last-place finishes and what a disgrace that is for the city of Boston. Sell the team!!! Technically in your scenario, the Red Sox wouldnt really be the last place team because they got the tiebreaker, sort of how the Yankees were given the 2005 AL East title while the Sox got the Wild Card even though they had the same record. Just saying
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 5, 2024 4:40:06 GMT -5
Picture this: the Sox finish tied for 4th in the AL East, but get the last wild card spot via a tiebreaker and go on to win the World Series. Then we get to complain loudly all offseason about how they have three consecutive last-place finishes and what a disgrace that is for the city of Boston. Sell the team!!! Technically in your scenario, the Red Sox wouldnt really be the last place team because they got the tiebreaker, sort of how the Yankees were given the 2005 AL East title while the Sox got the Wild Card even though they had the same record. Just saying LAST PLACE TEAM!!!
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Post by asm18 on Apr 8, 2024 8:52:22 GMT -5
If this first month seemed to feature mostly easier, non-playoff teams (aside from the Orioles) before the season started, the records of teams they will face include:
Guardians - 7-2 (7 games - Cleveland did just lose Bieber) Pirates - 8-2 (3 games @pittsburgh) Cubs - 6-3 (just won series vs the Dodgers)
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Post by asm18 on Apr 17, 2024 20:11:25 GMT -5
If you want an example of an AL East team that outperformed expectations despite an underwhelming off-season, you only have to go back a year to Baltimore: Orioles starter Kyle Bradish was projected by ZIPS for 117 innings, 4.69 ERA, 4.39 FIP in 2023. His actual results: 168 innings, 2.83 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 4th in CY Young voting. Maybe the people covering the team could give insight as to whether the Red Sox have a Kyle Bradish on their team or not - but that would require actually covering and watching the games instead of talking (deservedly or not) about how lame the off-season has been. Along similar lines, Tanner Houck has an 86 FIP- in his career as a starting pitcher. Among the 157 pitchers who have thrown at least 190 innings as a starter since his debut, that is tied for 39th, alongside Patrick Sandoval, Joe Musgrove, and…Jordan Montgomery. FIP obviously isn’t everything, but that’s pretty good company!Obviously he doesn’t have the track record of consistency and durability that Montgomery has, but I think people are really selling the raw talent in this rotation short. Someone will need to take a big step forward to be an ace, but none of the five starters currently penciled in needs to make a drastic change to be a very useful starting pitcher. If they’re all healthy enough to make 20+ starts, this can be a very solid rotation. Do we have our 2023 Kyle Bradish? (h/t to chaimtime)
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Apr 20, 2024 9:56:23 GMT -5
So most projections had the Sox at near .500 If you were to know that within the first 3 weeks they would: a) Lose Giolito for the season before it starts b) Lose Story for the season after 8 games c) Lose Pivetta for some unknown period after 2 appearances d) Have Devers off to a slow and injury plagued start e) Have the Sox tied with the Marlins with most blown saves (5) f) Have bat first Grissom yet to debut g) Lead all of MLB in errors through 21 games
What would you expect their record to be after 21 games and would yo have revised (lower one assumes) you season estimate? APRIL FOOL!
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Post by theburn on Apr 20, 2024 10:45:31 GMT -5
So most projections had the Sox at near .500 If you were to know that within the first 3 weeks they would: a) Lose Giolito for the season before it starts b) Lose Story for the season after 8 games c) Lose Pivetta for some unknown period after 2 appearances d) Have Devers off to a slow and injury plagued start e) Have the Sox tied with the Marlins with most blown saves (5) f) Have bat first Grissom yet to debut g) Lead all of MLB in errors through 21 games What would you expect their record to be after 21 games and would yo have revised (lower one assumes) you season estimate? APRIL FOOL! You could make a pretty compelling list of things that have gone well too. The bottom line is the bottom line, and I'd still set the over/under at 75 wins. They don't have veteran leadership, and I feel pretty confident that the deadline will play out similarly to '22 and '23 and they won't be competitive in August and September. Would love to be wrong though!
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Post by asm18 on Apr 26, 2024 21:39:05 GMT -5
Driven partly by AL Central teams playing great and Houston having the early-season-from-Hell, the current win projections for most of the AL is incredibly squished together: 90+ wins: Yankees - 91 (East) Orioles - 9080’s: Mariners - 85 (West) Rays - 85 Blue Jays - 84 Guardians - 84 (Central)Twins - 83 Red Sox - 82 Rangers - 82 Astros - 82 Royals - 81 Tigers - 81 Aside from the Yankees and O’s, you could legit see any of these teams making (or missing!) the playoffs! (The Angels, A’s and White Sox are in the sad zone.) www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
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