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2024 Red Sox win projections
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 28, 2024 7:32:31 GMT -5
82-80. Duking it out with TB for 4th. We look a little like the Sox of the late 1950s-early 1960s to me. We'll be fun to watch offensively, but is our pitching staff any better this year? Achilles.
Bello is not Pedro 2.0. I watched 2 of his spring games in person. His FB was mostly 93-95... Middling these days...good secondaries. On what team would he be #1?
As an aside, if the Yankees don't win it this year after all that additional spending and Cap penalties...wondrous ear splitting primal screams will emanate from the Big Apple.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 28, 2024 7:40:58 GMT -5
Gotta love opening day, the real one anyway when all the teams are beginning not just two teams playing a week early. Final prediction 84-78, team hovers around .500 all year and finishes strong when they get a boost from one of Anthony/Mayer/Teel who force their way up to the majors at the end of the season.
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Post by dcb26 on Mar 28, 2024 9:02:36 GMT -5
82-80. Duking it out with TB for 4th. We look a little like the Sox of the late 1950s-early 1960s to me. We'll be fun to watch offensively, but is our pitching staff any better this year? Achilles. Bello is not Pedro 2.0. I watched 2 of his spring games in person. His FB was mostly 93-95... Middling these days...good secondaries. On what team would he be #1? As an aside, if the Yankees don't win it this year after all that additional spending and Cap penalties...wondrous ear splitting primal screams will emanate from the Big Apple. When Pedro was his age he wasn't yet Pedro 1.0. I'm NOT saying Bello is ever going to be anything like Pedro, but to me he looks like he's still got another gear or two he can reach, and has both the control and the stuff to have a good chance to get there.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 28, 2024 9:33:38 GMT -5
Red Sox over/under went down to 77.5. I'm taking the under. Team lacks pitching and the offense has holes in it. Any rash of injuries is going to be catastrophic to this roster. They might get a bounce later in the year with promotions to key guys. I also suspect Breslow won't make the same mistake 3 years in a row by not selling when you're out of WC3 by a couple games, but the roster looks terrible.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Mar 28, 2024 9:54:01 GMT -5
Screw it - 92 wins and a wild card. I like this team too much to be down on them even if the offseason was awful.
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Post by trotman on Mar 28, 2024 9:59:24 GMT -5
Red Sox over/under went down to 77.5. I'm taking the under. Team lacks pitching and the offense has holes in it. Any rash of injuries is going to be catastrophic to this roster. They might get a bounce later in the year with promotions to key guys. I also suspect Breslow won't make the same mistake 3 years in a row by not selling when you're out of WC3 by a couple games, but the roster looks terrible. For those like me wondering, 77.5 is the current Vegas o/u betting line for the Red Sox. I'm still taking the over but I too am scared about the trade deadline because worst case, the tradeable pieces can't be traded because of regression or injury. I'll give Craig the benefit of the doubt until we hit the deadline but he may not have tradeable pieces if we're in the position. Jansen and Martin could be volatile.
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 28, 2024 10:13:32 GMT -5
I'd bet a BIG chunk of cash on the over.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Mar 28, 2024 10:28:35 GMT -5
82-80. Duking it out with TB for 4th. We look a little like the Sox of the late 1950s-early 1960s to me. We'll be fun to watch offensively, but is our pitching staff any better this year? Achilles. Bello is not Pedro 2.0. I watched 2 of his spring games in person. His FB was mostly 93-95... Middling these days...good secondaries. On what team would he be #1? As an aside, if the Yankees don't win it this year after all that additional spending and Cap penalties...wondrous ear splitting primal screams will emanate from the Big Apple. When Pedro was his age he wasn't yet Pedro 1.0. I'm NOT saying Bello is ever going to be anything like Pedro, but to me he looks like he's still got another gear or two he can reach, and has both the control and the stuff to have a good chance to get there. When Pedro was 25, he was 17-8, 1.90 with 13 CG for the Expos in his fourth full season in the bigs. He had 305 K in 241.1 IP and gave up 158 hits. He received 25 of 28 CY votes to take home his first trophy and Lou Gorman was impressed enough to send Carl Pavano and Tony Armas to Montreal to acquire him. Here's hoping Bello enjoys a similar 25-yo season, without the subsequent trade.
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Post by theburn on Mar 28, 2024 14:32:44 GMT -5
75 and last place.
Don’t underestimate the manager. I love Cora, but he’s clearly fed up with the organization and is effectively a lame duck on a team that desperately needs leadership if it’s going to be competitive.
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Post by dcb26 on Mar 28, 2024 15:25:49 GMT -5
When Pedro was his age he wasn't yet Pedro 1.0. I'm NOT saying Bello is ever going to be anything like Pedro, but to me he looks like he's still got another gear or two he can reach, and has both the control and the stuff to have a good chance to get there. When Pedro was 25, he was 17-8, 1.90 with 13 CG for the Expos in his fourth full season in the bigs. He had 305 K in 241.1 IP and gave up 158 hits. He received 25 of 28 CY votes to take home his first trophy and Lou Gorman was impressed enough to send Carl Pavano and Tony Armas to Montreal to acquire him. Here's hoping Bello enjoys a similar 25-yo season, without the subsequent trade. Yup this upcoming season would be the huge breakout season if Bello is in fact an exact Pedro Martinez clone. Again, he isn't, and hopefully nobody expects him to be. Only point is that Pedro changed a lot between ages 24 and 27, as do most players, so I think it's reasonable to expect the Bello we've seen to this point isn't all that he can become.
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 28, 2024 16:49:29 GMT -5
75 and last place. Don’t underestimate the manager. I love Cora, but he’s clearly fed up with the organization and is effectively a lame duck on a team that desperately needs leadership if it’s going to be competitive. I'm luke warm on Cora. I don't think he's fed up with organization, especially with Breslow coming in (maybe he was with Bloom?), and he's clearly been putting in the work in the offseason. I think Cora might be more getting weary of the daily grind of being an MLB manager. But he's shown leadership this offseason (according to the Athletic article). Maybe he gets reinvigorated this year, maybe not. But it's definitely been reported he wants to move into a front office role. So, I still like my 162 win prediction. I think it'll be a fun season.
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Post by jbuttah on Mar 28, 2024 18:21:40 GMT -5
I'm going out on a limb and say that I think the Sox finish first in the AL East! A lot of things have to go right for this to happen, but after the last few years of everything going wrong, I think lady luck will be visiting the Sox this year.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Mar 28, 2024 20:27:05 GMT -5
82-80, Pretty good offense much improved defense and a solid to good pen however the Starting Pitching remains the Achilles heal of the team.
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 28, 2024 22:23:44 GMT -5
When Pedro was his age he wasn't yet Pedro 1.0. I'm NOT saying Bello is ever going to be anything like Pedro, but to me he looks like he's still got another gear or two he can reach, and has both the control and the stuff to have a good chance to get there. When Pedro was 25, he was 17-8, 1.90 with 13 CG for the Expos in his fourth full season in the bigs. He had 305 K in 241.1 IP and gave up 158 hits. He received 25 of 28 CY votes to take home his first trophy and Lou Gorman was impressed enough to send Carl Pavano and Tony Armas to Montreal to acquire him. Here's hoping Bello enjoys a similar 25-yo season, without the subsequent trade. Beat me to it...😊
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Mar 29, 2024 11:01:23 GMT -5
Maybe this is lame now that the season has officially started, but, oh well.
87-75. Story and Rafaela will add multiple wins for their defense, even if they don't hit, but I think that Story will have a resurgent year. The rotation could end up being nasty, but I think Houck gets replaced by Dick Fitts after the All-Star Break. Houck will be moved to the bullpen where he can air it out for 1-2 innings at a time. Offense will be slightly above average, better than last year because Devers take a step from stardom to super-stardom and Casas has a 30-100 year with an OPS over 900. Story and O'Neill do well enough to make me forget about my off-season pining for Jorge Soler.
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Post by soxfansince54 on Mar 29, 2024 13:44:43 GMT -5
I wish I could say. 162-0
Realistically it maybe 85-77
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 29, 2024 13:58:50 GMT -5
Loved the way they played yesterday.
That said, I still have them at 75-87 although I acknowledge there's a pathway for them to better, but also a possibility they're even worse. I think this is a highly volatile team with a lot of variability.
I think O'Neil will have a Nick Esasky like 30 HR one and done year with the Sox.
I think Grissom will struggle offensively and defensively, people will grouse about it, and then he'll go on a post all star break hitting tear.
Casas will take the next step up.
The defense will be better.
If the Sox are to really exceed expectations Pivetta and Bello would emerge as frontline starters and one of Whitlock, Houck, or Crawford would join them.
All that said, my feeling is that the pitching will have serious issues and will be very thin. I dont think there are any good options should somebody get hurt unless Fitts is better than I think he is.
I also think there will be issues with Whitlock and Houck taking on a lot more innings than they're used to. I'm also uncertain about the pen and dont think we'll see the dominance that Martin har last season or the high save pct that Kenley had last year and I'm not sure they have enough depth and quality in the pen, especially if the rotation uncertainty puts more pressure on the pen
I also think if they're borderline Breslow is more inclined to divest which could add some more losses if the team feels deflated come August.
But on the plus side, the farm guys should be on the doorstep of the majors and maybe there will be some light at the end of the tunnel. Maybe another last place finish and an empty Fenway will make the Sox busy in free agency as McAdam and Cotillo are already floating the possibilty of the Sox going after Burnes next offseason.
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Post by GyIantosca on Mar 29, 2024 17:35:49 GMT -5
I think the bullpen saves them. Still questions about starters. If Breslow makes a strong deadline deal they make the wildcard. I say about 85-89 wins whatever gets you a wildcard this season
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Post by bishop on Mar 30, 2024 16:50:40 GMT -5
When Pedro was his age he wasn't yet Pedro 1.0. I'm NOT saying Bello is ever going to be anything like Pedro, but to me he looks like he's still got another gear or two he can reach, and has both the control and the stuff to have a good chance to get there. When Pedro was 25, he was 17-8, 1.90 with 13 CG for the Expos in his fourth full season in the bigs. He had 305 K in 241.1 IP and gave up 158 hits. He received 25 of 28 CY votes to take home his first trophy and Lou Gorman was impressed enough to send Carl Pavano and Tony Armas to Montreal to acquire him. Here's hoping Bello enjoys a similar 25-yo season, without the subsequent trade. I know even Pedro has made the comparison I think because he likes Bello as a little brother but come on, if we ever see a pitcher as nasty as Pedro again I'll consider myself blessed even if he is pitching for the Yankees against the Sox. Plenty of room for Bello to improve and be great without touching the GOAT.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Mar 30, 2024 17:13:33 GMT -5
When Pedro was 25, he was 17-8, 1.90 with 13 CG for the Expos in his fourth full season in the bigs. He had 305 K in 241.1 IP and gave up 158 hits. He received 25 of 28 CY votes to take home his first trophy and Lou Gorman was impressed enough to send Carl Pavano and Tony Armas to Montreal to acquire him. Here's hoping Bello enjoys a similar 25-yo season, without the subsequent trade. I know even Pedro has made the comparison I think because he likes Bello as a little brother but come on, if we ever see a pitcher as nasty as Pedro again I'll consider myself blessed even if he is pitching for the Yankees against the Sox. Plenty of room for Bello to improve and be great without touching the GOAT. I'm still waiting for Luis Espinoza to pop.
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Post by blizzards39 on Mar 30, 2024 17:40:23 GMT -5
Sox have been so unlucky the last few years. On top of that i say the pitching is a pleasant suprize. Here is my east projections Rays 94 Orioles 90 MFY 88 Sox 86 Jays 83
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Post by soxin8 on Apr 2, 2024 17:08:23 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Apr 2, 2024 17:48:46 GMT -5
If I am understanding this correctly - and I probably am not - they are treating as a linear curve what is actually exponential (if I am using those terms correctly, which I am probably not). That is, by this methodology, the 100th ranked player is being valued as midway between the #1 and #200 ranked players. But in terms of WAR, #100 would be a lot closer to to #200 than to #1. (E.g., last season among position players, the #1 player had 8.4 WAR. #100 had 2.4 WAR. And #200 had 0.9 WAR. In other words Willson Contreras was a lot closer to Ezequiel Duran in WAR total than to Ronald Acuna, despite being ranked midway between the two.)
This methodology would systematically overrate teams that have a lot of good-not-great players (e.g., the Red Sox) and underrate teams that had a few of the top stars in the game (e.g., the Yankees, I'm afraid).
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Post by trajanacc on Apr 3, 2024 10:18:59 GMT -5
If I am understanding this correctly - and I probably am not - they are treating as a linear curve what is actually exponential (if I am using those terms correctly, which I am probably not). That is, by this methodology, the 100th ranked player is being valued as midway between the #1 and #200 ranked players. But in terms of WAR, #100 would be a lot closer to to #200 than to #1. (E.g., last season among position players, the #1 player had 8.4 WAR. #100 had 2.4 WAR. And #200 had 0.9 WAR. In other words Willson Contreras was a lot closer to Ezequiel Duran in WAR total than to Ronald Acuna, despite being ranked midway between the two.)
This methodology would systematically overrate teams that have a lot of good-not-great players (e.g., the Red Sox) and underrate teams that had a few of the top stars in the game (e.g., the Yankees, I'm afraid).
Yeah you're right. To put it another way, you'd rather have 10 guys ranked in the top 50 and 16 replacement players than have 12 guys ranked 200-276 and 14 replacement players. Still, it seems likely that most public/square bettors would overvalue star players in baseball. We see this every offseason with trade/free agency wishes and proposals. So there could be contrarian betting value on a team filled with good/not-great players. I'm hoping there is :-)
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Post by soxin8 on Apr 3, 2024 10:24:40 GMT -5
I agree they seem to weight stars much less than team depth. It appears that they have used this formula to evaluate previous seasons and believe it has some validity.
It does seem like a stretch to me that Boston should have the 4th best odds to win the WS as the article claims they should have. But if this team over performs in our eyes this year, we can look back and say maybe it shouldn't have been that big of a surprise.
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