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2024 Red Sox win projections
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Post by bluechip on Jan 22, 2024 8:53:04 GMT -5
I know everyone is down on the team with no major upgrades beyond second base (and replacing Chris Sale with Lucas Giolito). Nevertheless, ESPN does have the Red Sox as the top team likely to breakout this year. Here is how they define it: A breakout team is a team coming off a losing season that beats its established level of play by at least 10 games and winds up with a winning record. www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39336308/mlb-top-5-breakout-teams-2024-red-sox-metsThe article is behind a paywall, but it is based upon various criteria and tries to a formula to predict the breakout teams, not just gut reactions of a reporter. So, how many wins do we see the Red Sox getting this year? |
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jan 22, 2024 8:57:22 GMT -5
I'll make my first prediction when the roster is more settled, just before spring training begins. Too soon for me to even guess.
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Post by 0ap0 on Jan 22, 2024 9:04:39 GMT -5
I'm in at 70. I think the season-starting team will, on paper, be a little better than the team that finished last last year (much as last year's season-starting team was, on paper, better than the team that finished last), but that instead of bringing in people to try to plug holes that develop, the team is left to its own and falls apart harder. I predict it doesn't sink lower by the strength of the kids they promote doing yeoman's work and performing commendably.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jan 22, 2024 9:24:10 GMT -5
I'm in at 70. I think the season-starting team will, on paper, be a little better than the team that finished last last year (much as last year's season-starting team was, on paper, better than the team that finished last), but that instead of bringing in people to try to plug holes that develop, the team is left to its own and falls apart harder. I predict it doesn't sink lower by the strength of the kids they promote doing yeoman's work and performing commendably. If this group wins only 70 we are in alot of trouble. I don’t see any reason that as of now compared to last season we are better at SS 2B 1B C. Could easy be better at 3B and OF. The bullpen should be starting deeper and the SP looks similar to better and we wont have to put up with Klubur. There could be regressions and most likely injuries. But we also have a few guys poised for massive break out seasons. On top of all this there is still pay role flexibility. The only way this team finishes under 80 wins is a-lot goes wrong and they clean house. Possible yes. But, just as likely it could go rhe other way and we win 90 plus. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 22, 2024 9:40:00 GMT -5
I’ll go straight down the middle with 81. This feels like roughly an average team, I have a hard time seeing any scenario in which they’re worse than that in which Cora’s seat isn’t smoking hot, injuries aside.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 22, 2024 9:42:32 GMT -5
I'm in at 70. I think the season-starting team will, on paper, be a little better than the team that finished last last year (much as last year's season-starting team was, on paper, better than the team that finished last), but that instead of bringing in people to try to plug holes that develop, the team is left to its own and falls apart harder. I predict it doesn't sink lower by the strength of the kids they promote doing yeoman's work and performing commendably. If this group wins only 70 we are in alot of trouble. I don’t see any reason that as of now compared to last season we are better at SS 2B 1B C. Could easy be better at 3B and OF. The bullpen should be starting deeper and the SP looks similar to better and we wont have to put up with Klubur. There could be regressions and most likely injuries. But we also have a few guys poised for massive break out seasons. On top of all this there is still pay role flexibility. The only way this team finishes under 80 wins is a-lot goes wrong and they clean house. Possible yes. But, just as likely it could go rhe other way and we win 90 plus. It's just hard to see how the starting pitching is better at this moment. The Sale and Paxton durability issues are well-documented, but they turned in a combined 2.8 bWAR last year. Giolito will replace a chunk of that, but it's also not fair to expect nobody else to regress or get hurt. If they can repeat the 5.6 bWAR from Bello/Crawford, then they're in great shape. But the depth is really concerning if one or the other isn't right. The infield is where they should be a lot better. A Casas-Grisson-Story-Devers infield, if everyone hits their upside, is in the conversation for one of the better ones in baseball. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 22, 2024 10:10:50 GMT -5
On paper I think they’re similar to last year but with worse depth, I’m still expecting them to add a starter and possibly an outfielder to address that though.
All that said life’s too short to be a downer. Just like last year I’ll predict 86 wins (and if I wipe September from my brain that was spot on in 2023).
Some specific players I’m optimistic on beating their projections: Story, Crawford, Pivetta, Abreu, Casas
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 22, 2024 10:15:01 GMT -5
If this group wins only 70 we are in alot of trouble. I don’t see any reason that as of now compared to last season we are better at SS 2B 1B C. Could easy be better at 3B and OF. The bullpen should be starting deeper and the SP looks similar to better and we wont have to put up with Klubur. There could be regressions and most likely injuries. But we also have a few guys poised for massive break out seasons. On top of all this there is still pay role flexibility. The only way this team finishes under 80 wins is a-lot goes wrong and they clean house. Possible yes. But, just as likely it could go rhe other way and we win 90 plus. It's just hard to see how the starting pitching is better at this moment. The Sale and Paxton durability issues are well-documented, but they turned in a combined 2.8 bWAR last year. Giolito will replace a chunk of that, but it's also not fair to expect nobody else to regress or get hurt. If they can repeat the 5.6 bWAR from Bello/Crawford, then they're in great shape. But the depth is really concerning if one or the other isn't right. The infield is where they should be a lot better. A Casas-Grisson-Story-Devers infield, if everyone hits their upside, is in the conversation for one of the better ones in baseball. My hope is Giolito’s value is in innings. The bullpen was gassed last year, and if he can go a bit longer than what we saw last year, the added WAR might be spread out beyond him. If Pivetta can continue as he was late in the season, he could be a second guy going 6-7 regularly. They just didn’t have that last year. No doubt there might be regression, but we could also see someone develop further. I guess I go into the season thinking the pitching is about the same with as good a chance it is better as worse. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 22, 2024 10:25:08 GMT -5
Just basing off the current guys in the ORG and under contract, I'm going to guess 84 wins. Story and Grissom should be worth an extra 4-5 WAR vs last years MI WAR. Casas I think provides an extra 1-2 WAR. Pitching I'd currently to me looks a couple WAR less than last year. Everything else looks about even, I think the combo of Yoshida and Devers does 2 WAR better.
78 wins last years + 5 wins for MI + 1 win for Casas + 2 WAR from whoever else - 2 wins from pitching= 84. That's my quick ballpark estimate without putting more than a minute of thought into. There is plenty of room for variance though with the young OFers and young pitchers. So overall if the team won 90+ games or lost 84+ games I wouldn't be surprised either way.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 22, 2024 10:37:28 GMT -5
Went 76 as my over under last year.
Going with 82.5 for my over under this year.
Way better defense at SS, Casas year 2, 2B not being a black hole.
Rotation has a degree of quality all the way through but no ace or confident 2 either really
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Post by bishop on Jan 22, 2024 10:59:01 GMT -5
A breakout team is a team coming off a losing season that beats its established level of play by at least 10 games and winds up with a winning record. www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39336308/mlb-top-5-breakout-teams-2024-red-sox-metsThe article is behind a paywall, but it is based upon various criteria and tries to a formula to predict the breakout teams, not just gut reactions of a reporter. So, how many wins do we see the Red Sox getting this year? Well you couldn't get a more sweetheart set of criteria than that for a 78-84 team with a -4 run differential... Yankees were 82-80 despite being a little worse at -25 but they're not eligible so I'll take it!
Offense was just outside the top 10 last year, Duvall and Turner are real losses (but one might be re-signed), Verdugo had the rep and a decent floor but wasn't exactly great at the plate, and Duran could be due for regression. But on the flip side a full year of Story and Grissom should be light years past what we got from the middle infield, and there are reasons to be optimistic both Casas and Yoshida are closer to what they showed in their respective great half season vs their very poor other half. The key right now seems to be the young outfielders, I'd put our floor around 15th if our CF is OPS'ing in the .600's, but think we're solidly a top half team who could approach the top 5 albeit not the juggernauts like Atlanta and LA.
Runs allowed was just inside the bottom 10, and I can see why people aren't bullish on the starting pitching, but Giolito should be able to replace Sale's overall contribution even if he just does it slower over more innings, and more importantly I think the defensive improvement will be real. Story for a full season, a daily 2B partner who hopefully improves as he goes along, the possibility Duran improves his reads or we see Rafaela in CF, and even the chance Masa ends up DH'ing some should all help. Not sure we can drop that by the 50 or so we'd probably need to be a real wild card contender in our division, but I fail to see how this is a worse team and anyone is predicting 70 or fewer wins.
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Post by notstarboard on Jan 22, 2024 11:41:03 GMT -5
If this group wins only 70 we are in alot of trouble. I donât see any reason that as of now compared to last season we are better at SS 2B 1B C. Could easy be better at 3B and OF. The bullpen should be starting deeper and the SP looks similar to better and we wont have to put up with Klubur. There could be regressions and most likely injuries. But we also have a few guys poised for massive break out seasons. On top of all this there is still pay role flexibility. The only way this team finishes under 80 wins is a-lot goes wrong and they clean house. Possible yes. But, just as likely it could go rhe other way and we win 90 plus. It's just hard to see how the starting pitching is better at this moment. The Sale and Paxton durability issues are well-documented, but they turned in a combined 2.8 bWAR last year. Giolito will replace a chunk of that, but it's also not fair to expect nobody else to regress or get hurt. If they can repeat the 5.6 bWAR from Bello/Crawford, then they're in great shape. But the depth is really concerning if one or the other isn't right. The infield is where they should be a lot better. A Casas-Grisson-Story-Devers infield, if everyone hits their upside, is in the conversation for one of the better ones in baseball. Here's my optimistic interpretation of the pitching situation:
Giolito had 184.1 IP last year despite his struggles. Sale and Paxton combined for 198.2 IP. If he's going even vaguely good he's could replace the production of both, and given his age and pedigree, I'm betting on him to bounce back. Coincidentally, Giolito was worth exactly 2.8 bWAR last year when he was traded at the deadline. If we attribute the terrible performance down the stretch to his divorce and trades more than anything, he might not even have to improve much this year to offset Sale and Paxton's production from 2023.
Given the ages of Crawford, Bello, Winck, Whitlock, and Houck - Crawford is the oldest of the bunch, and he turns 28 in April - it's more likely that that group will improve on average than the opposite.
Then there's Pivetta, who was excellent in the second half last year (.272 wOBA in 73.2 IP). Eno Sarris recently wrote he still thinks Pivetta has the ceiling of a #2. I'm not expecting him to hit that ceiling, but there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about him this year.
Then they have addition by subtraction of 55 IP (15 G, 9 GS) not going to -0.8 fWAR Corey Kluber, and they should have a much less catasrophic defense behind their starters with Story in the fold, and (as it stands now) O'Neill set to eat a lot of Masa's innings in LF. If Rafaela can hit his way up into the CF role sometime this year the team defense could even be average to above average.
That said, I share your concerns about the SP depth. They could survive a couple injuries to guys in the Houck/Winck/Whitlock bucket, but if Giolito in particular goes down with a significant injury, that would be a ton of innings they'd suddenly have to replace. I really do hope they pick up another SP before April to guard against this, but as is I would still bet on this year's group to outperform last year's. Giolito has durable thus far in his career and this is only his age 29 season, so I am expecting him to make it through the season.
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I definitely agree about the infield. If Story is even a 2 WAR player this year that's a ~3.5 WAR improvement at SS alone versus Kiké Hernandez + the post-recovery Story whose bat never got going. A 2 WAR season from Grissom would be a ~2 WAR improvement over the Arroyo/Valdez/Urias/Reyes grab bag from last year. Devers started slow last year and only put up 3.1 fWAR despite putting up a combined 15.7 in his previous three full seasons. Casas started slow as well while getting used to MLB pitching, so he will likely improve just from having that experience under his belt this year. I think there's reason to hope that we'll get more from the C platoon too if they can both stay healthy, as Wong seemed to fade last year as he was forced to catch almost every game with McGuire out and no other plausible internal options to cover for him. I'm less bullish on a rebound at C than I am for guys like Story and Giolito, but <1 WAR from C leaves plenty of room for improvement.
If everyone in the infield just hits their Steamer projections the Sox are looking at something like a 7.5 WAR improvement there (+1.3 for Devers, +1.2 for Casas, +~3 WAR at SS, +~2 WAR at 2B, ~0 at C). A 75th percentile outcome is probably 10+ WAR over last year's infield. Crazy to think about, but nonetheless feasible. If that happens and the OF and pitching staff even hold serve, this team probably snags a WC spot. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 22, 2024 11:48:56 GMT -5
It's just hard to see how the starting pitching is better at this moment. The Sale and Paxton durability issues are well-documented, but they turned in a combined 2.8 bWAR last year. Giolito will replace a chunk of that, but it's also not fair to expect nobody else to regress or get hurt. If they can repeat the 5.6 bWAR from Bello/Crawford, then they're in great shape. But the depth is really concerning if one or the other isn't right. The infield is where they should be a lot better. A Casas-Grisson-Story-Devers infield, if everyone hits their upside, is in the conversation for one of the better ones in baseball. Here's my optimistic interpretation of the pitching situation:
Giolito had 184.1 IP last year despite his struggles. Sale and Paxton combined for 198.2 IP. If he's going even vaguely good he's could replace the production of both, and given his age and pedigree, I'm betting on him to bounce back. Coincidentally, Giolito was worth exactly 2.8 bWAR last year when he was traded at the deadline. If we attribute the terrible performance down the stretch to his divorce and trades more than anything, he might not even have to improve much this year to offset Sale and Paxton's production from 2023.
Given the ages of Crawford, Bello, Winck, Whitlock, and Houck - Crawford is the oldest of the bunch, and he turns 28 in April - it's more likely that that group will improve on average than the opposite.
Then there's Pivetta, who was excellent in the second half last year (.272 wOBA in 73.2 IP). Eno Sarris recently wrote he still thinks Pivetta has the ceiling of a #2. I'm not expecting him to hit that ceiling, but there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about him this year.
Then they have addition by subtraction of 55 IP (15 G, 9 GS) not going to -0.8 fWAR Corey Kluber, and they should have a much less catasrophic defense behind their starters with Story in the fold, and (as it stands now) O'Neill set to eat a lot of Masa's innings in LF. If Rafaela can hit his way up into the CF role sometime this year the team defense could even be average to above average.
That said, I share your concerns about the SP depth. They could survive a couple injuries to guys in the Houck/Winck/Whitlock bucket, but if Giolito in particular goes down with a significant injury, that would be a ton of innings they'd suddenly have to replace. I really do hope they pick up another SP before April to guard against this, but as is I would still bet on this year's group to outperform last year's. Giolito has durable thus far in his career and this is only his age 29 season, so I am expecting him to make it through the season.
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I definitely agree about the infield. If Story is even a 2 WAR player this year that's a ~3.5 WAR improvement at SS alone versus Kiké Hernandez + the post-recovery Story whose bat never got going. A 2 WAR season from Grissom would be a ~2 WAR improvement over the Arroyo/Valdez/Urias/Reyes grab bag from last year. Devers started slow last year and only put up 3.1 fWAR despite putting up a combined 15.7 in his previous three full seasons. Casas started slow as well while getting used to MLB pitching, so he will likely improve just from having that experience under his belt this year. I think there's reason to hope that we'll get more from the C platoon too if they can both stay healthy, as Wong seemed to fade last year as he was forced to catch almost every game with McGuire out and no other plausible internal options to cover for him. I'm less bullish on a rebound at C than I am for guys like Story and Giolito, but <1 WAR from C leaves plenty of room for improvement.
If everyone in the infield just hits their Steamer projections the Sox are looking at something like a 7.5 WAR improvement there (+1.3 for Devers, +1.2 for Casas, +~3 WAR at SS, +~2 WAR at 2B, ~0 at C). A 75th percentile outcome is probably 10+ WAR over last year's infield. Crazy to think about, but nonetheless feasible. If that happens and the OF and pitching staff even hold serve, this team probably snags a WC spot. All reasonable arguments put forth here, you are a tad more bullish than I on the season. Not sure if this comment belongs here or not but as you point out there's plenty of reasons to be cautiously optimistic about the talent currently in the org, which makes it all the more baffling that they are planning on having a lower payroll this year than last. If you're in the ballpark on your projections, adding a Duvall/Soler and say a Paxton/Ryu/whoever to add to the SP depth could really push the team from fringe playoff to a favorite for a WC spot. None the less adding a Montgomery or Snell but alas here we are.. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jan 22, 2024 12:40:06 GMT -5
79 wins
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 22, 2024 12:43:49 GMT -5
I'll start with 75 wins based on today's roster but that could change in an instant.
Add Montgomery and Soler and I might revise my prediction to 85 wins.
Not that these 2 players are at all worth 10 games together, but I think there could be a ripple effect. Montgomery eats innings and provides quality, something Giolito used to do.
Add Soler to the cleanup spot and the lineup becomes long and scary. I still think they would have enough outfield defense on the bench to lessen the defensive hit.
If they add day Duvall and Paxton I'll put them right back at 78 wins as it will closely resemble the same team as last year's.
Some unfortunate injuries and some negative momentum could drag this team down to 70 wins.
Some new blood and some good breaks along the way and who knows? Maybe even 90 wins.
I'm back on the Whitlock for starter train. I saw him at the Winterfest. He looks like he's in serious shape. He is capable of being a quality starter. But will he ever stay healthy? His role and performance could be a factor if there is a surprise. We know hes capable of the 6 outs 3 days per week role but I dont know that he can pitch back to back days consistently, but he throws strikes and can keep his pitch count down to provide innings but relying on him is kind of like relying on Paxton.
But I bring up Whitlock because it's becoming more apparent they're not picking up an impact starter and if they are to surprise then Whitlock might be a key part of that. To be determined
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Jan 22, 2024 13:16:52 GMT -5
It is still early with major FAs in the wind. But I’m optimistic that we’ll see 85 wins… with a chance of a few more. I look back at what really hurt last year, and I think it was defense most of all and not unrelatedly short starts. Better D means not only fewer runs but fewer pitches. So Story will help a lot defensively. I am excited for Grissom (not necessarily defensively, I admit). And I think Giolito over Sale/Paxton is a win.
Then, I expect Casas to be better, maybe Devers… and I hope they get at least solid production from Masa and Story… even Masa OR Story.
I don’t think this is a great team or likely even a playoff team. But I think it is better than what broke camp last year.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jan 22, 2024 16:16:35 GMT -5
I think I said 93 last year. Tempering expectations, going with 91. Internal improvement and we get another pitcher.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jan 22, 2024 16:21:59 GMT -5
Relevant text from the ESPN+ article quoted above.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 22, 2024 17:00:28 GMT -5
Relevant text from the ESPN+ article quoted above. I'd be very interested to see if, outside of the Twins example mentioned, there's actually any correlation there. That feels like shaky reasoning at best. |
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Post by tookme55 on Jan 22, 2024 17:23:40 GMT -5
81 I'm counting on energy from our young players.
I am okay with the wait and see.
Basically we have 4 players under contract for $75M going into 2025 season. Even with budget of $225M we have money to add. I strongly believe Sox are waiting to see which players are keepers this year.
It's unbelievable the years of team control we have on our players.
5 Wong
5 Casas
6 Grissom
5 Story
10 Devers
4 Yoshida
5 Duran
6 Abreu
6 Rafaela
At some point we will see our 3 studs
Then you have
Bello 5
Kutter 5
Houck 4
Whitlock 6
Winckowski 5
Bernadino 6
The key for me is for the pitching staff to remain healthy from get go and see what we have. No more excuses for Whitlock.
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Smittyw
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Post by Smittyw on Jan 22, 2024 18:12:07 GMT -5
Last year's club was on something like an 83-win pace before the September swoon...I'll call that my prediction for now, pending any further moves.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Jan 22, 2024 18:28:21 GMT -5
Hopefully Boston adds more talent before the season starts. As it stands today, I'd guess only slightly above .500. Maybe 83 wins.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 23, 2024 7:00:51 GMT -5
If this group wins only 70 we are in alot of trouble. I don’t see any reason that as of now compared to last season we are better at SS 2B 1B C. Could easy be better at 3B and OF. The bullpen should be starting deeper and the SP looks similar to better and we wont have to put up with Klubur. There could be regressions and most likely injuries. But we also have a few guys poised for massive break out seasons. On top of all this there is still pay role flexibility. The only way this team finishes under 80 wins is a-lot goes wrong and they clean house. Possible yes. But, just as likely it could go rhe other way and we win 90 plus. It's just hard to see how the starting pitching is better at this moment. The Sale and Paxton durability issues are well-documented, but they turned in a combined 2.8 bWAR last year. Giolito will replace a chunk of that, but it's also not fair to expect nobody else to regress or get hurt. If they can repeat the 5.6 bWAR from Bello/Crawford, then they're in great shape. But the depth is really concerning if one or the other isn't right. The infield is where they should be a lot better. A Casas-Grisson-Story-Devers infield, if everyone hits their upside, is in the conversation for one of the better ones in baseball. You also have to factor in a huge difference in the off seasons of Houck and Whitlock. |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 23, 2024 7:14:38 GMT -5
It's just hard to see how the starting pitching is better at this moment. The Sale and Paxton durability issues are well-documented, but they turned in a combined 2.8 bWAR last year. Giolito will replace a chunk of that, but it's also not fair to expect nobody else to regress or get hurt. If they can repeat the 5.6 bWAR from Bello/Crawford, then they're in great shape. But the depth is really concerning if one or the other isn't right. The infield is where they should be a lot better. A Casas-Grisson-Story-Devers infield, if everyone hits their upside, is in the conversation for one of the better ones in baseball. You also have to factor in a huge difference in the off seasons of Houck and Whitlock. Until Houck can get lefties out, and Whitlock can stay healthy, you can't really count on them. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 23, 2024 7:38:53 GMT -5
You also have to factor in a huge difference in the off seasons of Houck and Whitlock. Until Houck can get lefties out, and Whitlock can stay healthy, you can't really count on them. The comparison was to last year's situation. You are trying to change the subject. |
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