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2024 Red Sox win projections
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Mar 23, 2024 11:03:53 GMT -5
From what I'm reading here, I guess veteran star players are just born veteran star players and if you don't go out and buy them in their fully formed state, you won't have any.
By contrast, my experience watching baseball my whole life is that veteran star players almost always start out as promising young players who, at some point, develop into those stars. This team is loaded with those promising young players and this FO has had a clear focus in their nascent tenure to overhaul their player development apparatus, rather than buy a bunch of mercenaries from a lousy FA class.
88 wins.
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Post by itinerantherb on Mar 23, 2024 11:05:26 GMT -5
The heuristic of every single season preview article is "how good was the team last year, and did they sign any famous guys in free agency." Hence this mlb.com article has the Red Sox in the next-to-last tier, tied for 25th in the majors, and two full tiers below the Royals, Tigers, Reds, and Pirates. The Red Sox have come in last in back to back years, did almost nothing this offseason and will be running a payroll ~$25 million under the first CBT threshold. They deserve to be raked over the coals like this by every major media outlet. I share the frustration with the tepid offseason but I don't get the extreme pessimism about the team. If anything, my frustration comes from my view that they're already pretty decent and thus worth the investment. They've held steady or improved at basically every position, with the possible exception of right field and DH, and even those could be solid. And yes, the rotation has a wide range of possible outcomes, as others have noted, and the quality depth is questionable (depending on what you think about Criswell and Winkowski as starters), but when I look at the top five, I don't think it takes rose colored glasses to imagine that they'll be average or better. If Bello, Crawford and Pivetta pick up where they left off and Houck and Whitlock are serviceable, that's a pretty good rotation. (I'm actually more optimistic about Whitlock, in particular, but I get why others might see him differently.)
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Post by asm18 on Mar 23, 2024 11:12:32 GMT -5
The Red Sox have come in last in back to back years, did almost nothing this offseason and will be running a payroll ~$25 million under the first CBT threshold. They deserve to be raked over the coals like this by every major media outlet. Ownership deserves the skewering… but media and fans are letting that affect how they objectively view the team imo. The MassLive reporters just came out with their win predictions, who ranged from 74 wins to 82. Like many outlets, their coverage has focused on transactions & moves (or lack thereof). Not to pick on Chris Cotillo, who is a good reporter, but he had tweeted early in Spring Training that, “Talking to players this spring has led to me deciding to pretty much completely ignore spring training game results/stats and not focus on it in the coverage. It's such a period of experimentation/tinkering.” A lot of the media covering the Red Sox seem to share that approach. Which is how you end up with seemingly the only reporter to observe or write about the non-televised standout minor league start Wednesday by Garrett Whitlock that clinched his rotation spot (and publicly thrilled Cora) being Alex Speier. If you want an example of an AL East team that outperformed expectations despite an underwhelming off-season, you only have to go back a year to Baltimore: Orioles starter Kyle Bradish was projected by ZIPS for 117 innings, 4.69 ERA, 4.39 FIP in 2023. His actual results: 168 innings, 2.83 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 4th in CY Young voting. Maybe the people covering the team could give insight as to whether the Red Sox have a Kyle Bradish on their team or not - but that would require actually covering and watching the games instead of talking (deservedly or not) about how lame the off-season has been.
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Post by manfred on Mar 23, 2024 11:12:46 GMT -5
I would say that for all of the disappointments in the off season, they were largely based on expectations. That is… the team enters the season with a healthier core than last year and with hopes for guys like Casas and Duran.
The Yankees, on the other hand, made bigger moves and acquired a superstar… yet I’d feel far worse if I were a fan of that team. Cole? Rodan? Judge’s health?
So… I don’t think the Sox are a great team, but their division may not be as strong as it looks top to bottom… might be worth a few extra wins. I am thinking ~87 wins at the moment.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Mar 23, 2024 11:40:43 GMT -5
The Red Sox have come in last in back to back years, did almost nothing this offseason and will be running a payroll ~$25 million under the first CBT threshold. They deserve to be raked over the coals like this by every major media outlet. I share the frustration with the tepid offseason but I don't get the extreme pessimism about the team. If anything, my frustration comes from my view that they're already pretty decent and thus worth the investment. They've held steady or improved at basically every position, with the possible exception of right field and DH, and even those could be solid. And yes, the rotation has a wide range of possible outcomes, as others have noted, and the quality depth is questionable (depending on what you think about Criswell and Winkowski as starters), but when I look at the top five, I don't think it takes rose colored glasses to imagine that they'll be average or better. If Bello, Crawford and Pivetta pick up where they left off and Houck and Whitlock are serviceable, that's a pretty good rotation. (I'm actually more optimistic about Whitlock, in particular, but I get why others might see him differently.) This is just blatantly not true. They have replaced Turner, Verdugo, Duvall and Arroyo/Urias with Tyler O'Neill, Wilyer Abreu and Grissom and (I think?) Bobby Dalbec. They've replaced Sale and Paxton with...Cooper Criswell?
If a team wins 78 games in back to back years and they do nothing to improve the team (and arguably have gotten worse), you can't expect any media outlet to pick them to win anything. To add on that ownership came out and said they are cutting payroll and there is zero reason anyone should expect they are anything more than a 78 win team again. Bello, Crawford, Pivetta, Houck and Whitlock were all on the team last year, and they had one of the worst rotations in baseball. Why would you assume this rotation would be any better than last year?
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Post by chaimtime on Mar 23, 2024 11:48:28 GMT -5
The Red Sox have come in last in back to back years, did almost nothing this offseason and will be running a payroll ~$25 million under the first CBT threshold. They deserve to be raked over the coals like this by every major media outlet. Ownership deserves the skewering… but media and fans are letting that affect how they objectively view the team imo. The MassLive reporters just came out with their win predictions, who ranged from 74 wins to 82. Like many outlets, their coverage has focused on transactions & moves (or lack thereof). Not to pick on Chris Cotillo, who is a good reporter, but he had tweeted early in Spring Training that, “Talking to players this spring has led to me deciding to pretty much completely ignore spring training game results/stats and not focus on it in the coverage. It's such a period of experimentation/tinkering.” A lot of the media covering the Red Sox seem to share that approach. Which is how you end up with seemingly the only reporter to observe or write about the non-televised standout minor league start Wednesday by Garrett Whitlock that clinched his rotation spot (and publicly thrilled Cora) being Alex Speier. If you want an example of an AL East team that outperformed expectations despite an underwhelming off-season, you only have to go back a year to Baltimore: Orioles starter Kyle Bradish was projected by ZIPS for 117 innings, 4.69 ERA, 4.39 FIP in 2023. His actual results: 168 innings, 2.83 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 4th in CY Young voting. Maybe the people covering the team could give insight as to whether the Red Sox have a Kyle Bradish on their team or not - but that would require actually covering and watching the games instead of talking (deservedly or not) about how lame the off-season has been. Along similar lines, Tanner Houck has an 86 FIP- in his career as a starting pitcher. Among the 157 pitchers who have thrown at least 190 innings as a starter since his debut, that is tied for 39th, alongside Patrick Sandoval, Joe Musgrove, and…Jordan Montgomery. FIP obviously isn’t everything, but that’s pretty good company! Obviously he doesn’t have the track record of consistency and durability that Montgomery has, but I think people are really selling the raw talent in this rotation short. Someone will need to take a big step forward to be an ace, but none of the five starters currently penciled in needs to make a drastic change to be a very useful starting pitcher. If they’re all healthy enough to make 20+ starts, this can be a very solid rotation.
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Post by 07redsox on Mar 23, 2024 11:50:27 GMT -5
I share the frustration with the tepid offseason but I don't get the extreme pessimism about the team. If anything, my frustration comes from my view that they're already pretty decent and thus worth the investment. They've held steady or improved at basically every position, with the possible exception of right field and DH, and even those could be solid. And yes, the rotation has a wide range of possible outcomes, as others have noted, and the quality depth is questionable (depending on what you think about Criswell and Winkowski as starters), but when I look at the top five, I don't think it takes rose colored glasses to imagine that they'll be average or better. If Bello, Crawford and Pivetta pick up where they left off and Houck and Whitlock are serviceable, that's a pretty good rotation. (I'm actually more optimistic about Whitlock, in particular, but I get why others might see him differently.) This is just blatantly not true. They have replaced Turner, Verdugo, Duvall and Arroyo/Urias with Tyler O'Neill, Wilyer Abreu and Grissom and (I think?) Bobby Dalbec. They've replaced Sale and Paxton with...Cooper Criswell?
If a team wins 78 games in back to back years and they do nothing to improve the team (and arguably have gotten worse), you can't expect any media outlet to pick them to win anything. To add on that ownership came out and said they are cutting payroll and there is zero reason anyone should expect they are anything more than a 78 win team again. Bello, Crawford, Pivetta, Houck and Whitlock were all on the team last year, and they had one of the worst rotations in baseball. Why would you assume this rotation would be any better than last year?
There is a very big difference between complaining people aren’t picking them to win anything and saying they are one of the worst teams in all of baseball. I have not seen anyone complain about what you mentioned. It’s objectively insane, however, to rank them below the likes of the Pirates, Tigers, etc. You put this team in the AL Central and I don’t think it would be much of a surprise if they won it or at least came in second. Plus, the replacements you mentioned is not the only thing to look at. Having Story at SS all season is a huge boost. Whatever they end up with at 2B should be a huge boost compared to last year as well. I don’t think this team is going to be the best of the best or anything, but it’s not hard to see how they are in a decent position to be middle of the pack or so.
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Post by chaimtime on Mar 23, 2024 12:22:10 GMT -5
I share the frustration with the tepid offseason but I don't get the extreme pessimism about the team. If anything, my frustration comes from my view that they're already pretty decent and thus worth the investment. They've held steady or improved at basically every position, with the possible exception of right field and DH, and even those could be solid. And yes, the rotation has a wide range of possible outcomes, as others have noted, and the quality depth is questionable (depending on what you think about Criswell and Winkowski as starters), but when I look at the top five, I don't think it takes rose colored glasses to imagine that they'll be average or better. If Bello, Crawford and Pivetta pick up where they left off and Houck and Whitlock are serviceable, that's a pretty good rotation. (I'm actually more optimistic about Whitlock, in particular, but I get why others might see him differently.) This is just blatantly not true. They have replaced Turner, Verdugo, Duvall and Arroyo/Urias with Tyler O'Neill, Wilyer Abreu and Grissom and (I think?) Bobby Dalbec. They've replaced Sale and Paxton with...Cooper Criswell?
If a team wins 78 games in back to back years and they do nothing to improve the team (and arguably have gotten worse), you can't expect any media outlet to pick them to win anything. To add on that ownership came out and said they are cutting payroll and there is zero reason anyone should expect they are anything more than a 78 win team again. Bello, Crawford, Pivetta, Houck and Whitlock were all on the team last year, and they had one of the worst rotations in baseball. Why would you assume this rotation would be any better than last year?
Justin Turner put up 1.2 fWAR last year. He was a great clubhouse personality and he came up with some really clutch hits, but I’m not really worried about Yoshida matching his production at DH. I’m pretty confident that an Abreu/O’Neill platoon will out-produce Verdugo, who has been the definition of mid for three years now. Arroyo and Urias combined for -0.3 fWAR, I don’t think they’ll be missed. Hell, Bobby D might even be able to beat that! Their PAs from last year are going to Grissom, Valdez, and Reyes this year anyway. Trevor Story can have a very disappointing season and still be a massive, massive improvement over Kiké’s -1.5 fWAR. Add on a bounce back from Devers and continued progression from Casas, and they should have a better position player group. The defense should certainly be much improved, at the very least. As for the starters, you can’t really just pretend they didn’t add Giolito. Sure, he got hurt. Shit happens, that’s pitching. If they kept Sale and Paxton we’d be talking about how we can expect 10 gems, 10 blow-ups, and 10 missed starts from them. And the rotation wasn’t one of the worst in the league, it was below average—20th in ERA, 20th in FIP, 20th in fWAR. Give Corey Kluber’s starts to, well, anyone else in baseball and it would’ve been comfortably middle of the pack. Not good enough, but plenty to work with if the guys they have make minor improvements and get a little more help from the defense. The bullpen seems better too, the guys they added seem to have much better stuff than the guys they’re replacing. Sure, this isn’t a team that’s going to win 100 games and probably won’t challenge for the division title. It was disappointing that they couldn’t sign Yamamoto or pull off a trade for a top young starter. But I don’t get why people think they haven’t improved at all. They’ve jettisoned all the worst players on the roster, added a bunch of guys with complimentary skills, seem to have put in a lot of effort to improve the coaching, and are retaining all the young players who made last year fun for the first four months of the season. This team is perfectly capable of winning 85+ games and giving us some fun baseball to watch.
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Post by itinerantherb on Mar 23, 2024 13:11:09 GMT -5
I share the frustration with the tepid offseason but I don't get the extreme pessimism about the team. If anything, my frustration comes from my view that they're already pretty decent and thus worth the investment. They've held steady or improved at basically every position, with the possible exception of right field and DH, and even those could be solid. And yes, the rotation has a wide range of possible outcomes, as others have noted, and the quality depth is questionable (depending on what you think about Criswell and Winkowski as starters), but when I look at the top five, I don't think it takes rose colored glasses to imagine that they'll be average or better. If Bello, Crawford and Pivetta pick up where they left off and Houck and Whitlock are serviceable, that's a pretty good rotation. (I'm actually more optimistic about Whitlock, in particular, but I get why others might see him differently.) This is just blatantly not true. They have replaced Turner, Verdugo, Duvall and Arroyo/Urias with Tyler O'Neill, Wilyer Abreu and Grissom and (I think?) Bobby Dalbec. They've replaced Sale and Paxton with...Cooper Criswell?
If a team wins 78 games in back to back years and they do nothing to improve the team (and arguably have gotten worse), you can't expect any media outlet to pick them to win anything. To add on that ownership came out and said they are cutting payroll and there is zero reason anyone should expect they are anything more than a 78 win team again. Bello, Crawford, Pivetta, Houck and Whitlock were all on the team last year, and they had one of the worst rotations in baseball. Why would you assume this rotation would be any better than last year?
Exactly what chaimtime said. They could gain five wins on the middle infield improvement alone. Turner was great in that role and I loved that he was on the team, but I think that his charismatic presence and a handful of clutch hits are causing people to overestimate his actual value to the 23 team. I hedged on DH because I'm not 100% confident in Yoshida but if I had to bet on it, I think he'll be more valuable in 24 than Turner was in 23. Same with right field. I think that reasonable minds can disagree about Houck and Whitlock's viability as starters or whether Pivetta and Crawford will maintain their really promising runs last year (and I think there's good reason to think that they will), but at the very least, they're very likely to improve on Kluber's 7.08 ERA. And to say that Houck and Whitlock were on the team, so there! just doesn't make sense when both were hampered by injuries. That they're healthy now doesn't mean that they'll thrive as starters, but I don't know how you can say that those two aren't in a somewhat better position going into the season. I'm not saying that the team is a lock for 90 wins or anything like that. I just think that some folks might be letting disappointed expectations about the offseason cloud their assessment of the roster that actually exists.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Mar 23, 2024 14:02:01 GMT -5
This is just blatantly not true. They have replaced Turner, Verdugo, Duvall and Arroyo/Urias with Tyler O'Neill, Wilyer Abreu and Grissom and (I think?) Bobby Dalbec. They've replaced Sale and Paxton with...Cooper Criswell?
If a team wins 78 games in back to back years and they do nothing to improve the team (and arguably have gotten worse), you can't expect any media outlet to pick them to win anything. To add on that ownership came out and said they are cutting payroll and there is zero reason anyone should expect they are anything more than a 78 win team again. Bello, Crawford, Pivetta, Houck and Whitlock were all on the team last year, and they had one of the worst rotations in baseball. Why would you assume this rotation would be any better than last year?
Justin Turner put up 1.2 fWAR last year. He was a great clubhouse personality and he came up with some really clutch hits, but I’m not really worried about Yoshida matching his production at DH. I’m pretty confident that an Abreu/O’Neill platoon will out-produce Verdugo, who has been the definition of mid for three years now. Arroyo and Urias combined for -0.3 fWAR, I don’t think they’ll be missed. Hell, Bobby D might even be able to beat that! Their PAs from last year are going to Grissom, Valdez, and Reyes this year anyway. Trevor Story can have a very disappointing season and still be a massive, massive improvement over Kiké’s -1.5 fWAR. Add on a bounce back from Devers and continued progression from Casas, and they should have a better position player group. The defense should certainly be much improved, at the very least. As for the starters, you can’t really just pretend they didn’t add Giolito. Sure, he got hurt. Shit happens, that’s pitching. If they kept Sale and Paxton we’d be talking about how we can expect 10 gems, 10 blow-ups, and 10 missed starts from them. And the rotation wasn’t one of the worst in the league, it was below average—20th in ERA, 20th in FIP, 20th in fWAR. Give Corey Kluber’s starts to, well, anyone else in baseball and it would’ve been comfortably middle of the pack. Not good enough, but plenty to work with if the guys they have make minor improvements and get a little more help from the defense. The bullpen seems better too, the guys they added seem to have much better stuff than the guys they’re replacing. Sure, this isn’t a team that’s going to win 100 games and probably won’t challenge for the division title. It was disappointing that they couldn’t sign Yamamoto or pull off a trade for a top young starter. But I don’t get why people think they haven’t improved at all. They’ve jettisoned all the worst players on the roster, added a bunch of guys with complimentary skills, seem to have put in a lot of effort to improve the coaching, and are retaining all the young players who made last year fun for the first four months of the season. This team is perfectly capable of winning 85+ games and giving us some fun baseball to watch. I don't think anything you are saying is wrong, I'm saying no one except die hard Red Sox fans are going to assume any of what you are saying will happen. Can Story be good? Absolutely. But he also hit .203/.250/.316 when he played last year. Can Devers and Casas be better? Of course they can. But Casas is also only 24 and there is a legitimate possibility that he has a sophomore slump. Abreu is 24 and Grissom is 23 and neither of them have had extended success at the major league level. O'Neill is coming off 2 straight down/injured years. If the rationale behind thinking this team will be good is based on Story, Devers, Casas, O'Neill, Abreu, Grissom, Pivetta, Houck and Whitlock all playing better than they have over the most recent 2 seasons, it's going to be tough getting people onboard.
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Post by yuchangclan on Mar 23, 2024 14:34:24 GMT -5
Put me down for 80 wins. I think the starting pitching will be lousy and not give enough innings. This will lead to a pretty good bullpen quickly getting worn down. We’ve seen this movie before.
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Mar 23, 2024 15:20:33 GMT -5
Let's go with 85 wins.
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Post by itinerantherb on Mar 23, 2024 16:23:35 GMT -5
Justin Turner put up 1.2 fWAR last year. He was a great clubhouse personality and he came up with some really clutch hits, but I’m not really worried about Yoshida matching his production at DH. I’m pretty confident that an Abreu/O’Neill platoon will out-produce Verdugo, who has been the definition of mid for three years now. Arroyo and Urias combined for -0.3 fWAR, I don’t think they’ll be missed. Hell, Bobby D might even be able to beat that! Their PAs from last year are going to Grissom, Valdez, and Reyes this year anyway. Trevor Story can have a very disappointing season and still be a massive, massive improvement over Kiké’s -1.5 fWAR. Add on a bounce back from Devers and continued progression from Casas, and they should have a better position player group. The defense should certainly be much improved, at the very least. As for the starters, you can’t really just pretend they didn’t add Giolito. Sure, he got hurt. Shit happens, that’s pitching. If they kept Sale and Paxton we’d be talking about how we can expect 10 gems, 10 blow-ups, and 10 missed starts from them. And the rotation wasn’t one of the worst in the league, it was below average—20th in ERA, 20th in FIP, 20th in fWAR. Give Corey Kluber’s starts to, well, anyone else in baseball and it would’ve been comfortably middle of the pack. Not good enough, but plenty to work with if the guys they have make minor improvements and get a little more help from the defense. The bullpen seems better too, the guys they added seem to have much better stuff than the guys they’re replacing. Sure, this isn’t a team that’s going to win 100 games and probably won’t challenge for the division title. It was disappointing that they couldn’t sign Yamamoto or pull off a trade for a top young starter. But I don’t get why people think they haven’t improved at all. They’ve jettisoned all the worst players on the roster, added a bunch of guys with complimentary skills, seem to have put in a lot of effort to improve the coaching, and are retaining all the young players who made last year fun for the first four months of the season. This team is perfectly capable of winning 85+ games and giving us some fun baseball to watch. I don't think anything you are saying is wrong, I'm saying no one except die hard Red Sox fans are going to assume any of what you are saying will happen. Can Story be good? Absolutely. But he also hit .203/.250/.316 when he played last year. Can Devers and Casas be better? Of course they can. But Casas is also only 24 and there is a legitimate possibility that he has a sophomore slump. Abreu is 24 and Grissom is 23 and neither of them have had extended success at the major league level. O'Neill is coming off 2 straight down/injured years. If the rationale behind thinking this team will be good is based on Story, Devers, Casas, O'Neill, Abreu, Grissom, Pivetta, Houck and Whitlock all playing better than they have over the most recent 2 seasons, it's going to be tough getting people onboard.
Yes, if every question mark is resolved against them, they'll be a bad team. And Story could match last year's batting line and still be a 2 win improvement over Hernandez.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 23, 2024 21:01:00 GMT -5
The heuristic of every single season preview article is "how good was the team last year, and did they sign any famous guys in free agency." Hence this mlb.com article has the Red Sox in the next-to-last tier, tied for 25th in the majors, and two full tiers below the Royals, Tigers, Reds, and Pirates. The Red Sox have come in last in back to back years, did almost nothing this offseason and will be running a payroll ~$25 million under the first CBT threshold. They deserve to be raked over the coals like this by every major media outlet. Right, I forgot that this was the other heuristic people use - if they think it's a particularly meaningful fact that the team finished last two years in a row (even though they wouldn't have finished last in any other division in either of those years) then they wil think the Red Sox are a very bad team, rather than just mediocre.
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Post by asm18 on Mar 23, 2024 21:36:22 GMT -5
On the weekend eve of the season, with rosters pretty close to done, this is how Fangraphs projects American League records (I believe this includes factors like Gerrit Cole missing time): www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=StandingsAstros - 90 (West) Yankees - 88 (East) Rays - 86 Orioles - 85 Mariners - 85 Twins - 84 (Central) Blue Jays - 84 Rangers - 82 Red Sox - 81 Guardians - 80 (The remaining 5 AL teams project for win totals in the low to high 70’s for the most part.) They have Sox for 81 wins. There’s a path where the Red Sox get a wild card by stealing what, like a net amount of 4 or 5 games that they probably shouldn’t have won? It’s incredibly frustrating and annoying that the floor of this team isn’t higher because of the penny pinching… but there is a narrow course for this ship to make it through without sinking. I guess all’s that left is to see if if they do it
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Post by capesox on Mar 23, 2024 22:30:54 GMT -5
I'm going with 82 wins. Think Duran and Rafaela are going to make it an interesting team to watch, even if they are not playoff bound. Lots of what ifs, which will probably balance out with some wins and losses.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 23, 2024 23:34:48 GMT -5
I'm still trying to figure out who the Sox should have tried to acquire, what it would have cost the team, and how it would have helped. And please don't say Yamamoto for $400M.
The defense is far superior, the offense at least as good and maybe better and the bullpen is loaded with talent. While the starting pitching will require the kind of luck, good health, and lack of deadwood they didn't have last year, I'm greatly encouraged that the oldest one is Pivetta. That's the biggest question mark but if that group can avoid serious injuries I see at least 85 wins.
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Post by blizzards39 on Mar 24, 2024 4:30:43 GMT -5
Not having Kiké at SS, Kluber in the rotation and an actual CF will all make for alot of extra wins. Hopefully a full season of Story, Casas and Duran are all extra wins. Could easy get more out of many players. That all said it probably comes down to rotation. That could go either way. And thus the Giatillo injury and lack of signing Monty so maddening
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 24, 2024 5:09:23 GMT -5
I'm happy with what we have. 92 wins.
The rotation is the key. Young HEALTHY guys poised to have career years.
We also have a lot of talent behind them. No more major holes.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 24, 2024 8:13:56 GMT -5
They could win 90. They could lose 90 which I think is more likely than them winning 90.
I think their pitching is too thin and there's not enough front line pitching to sustain them. They would need Pivetta and Bello to both take the next step up. They would also need two of Houck, Whitlock, or Crawford to step up and be more than a 125 inning back end type. They have to stay very healthy or else theyll be getting more Anderson and Criswell starts which could be Kluber like.
They need to get innings out of their rotation or they will gas the pen, which has a lot of question marks in it. At the top Kenley has been hurt and has been declining. Martin was dominating last year. Dont expect that again although he still should be pretty damn good.
But the rest of the pen is filled with a lot of uncertainty. It could gel or it could implode or likely shades in between.
The offense looks ok. The keys are Story and O'Neill. They need Colorado version Story at the plate. If Story, O'Neill, and Yoshida hits all year they could have a strong lineup especially if Casas breaks out as I anticipate he will and Grissom hits like he can, and Rafaela hits like he has this spring.
There's enough there that if you squint hard enough and use spring training optimism you can see high 80s low 90s potential, but it's not too hard to see lack of pitching depth and quality in the rotation having a ripple effect on the bullpen and not having enough offense to overcome it and the team being stuck toward the middle again and this time divesting and winding up a 75 win team, which is what I think will ultimately happen.
The silver lining is that the farm system will be moving guys forward as I would anticipate guys like Teel, Anthony, and Mayer push forward as I'd think the key for them is to conquer AA because once that's done you go to the run scoring environment at Worcester and rake and you're a stone's throw from Boston. Hopefully Bleis and Cespedes, among others take a big leap as well.
I think 2024 will end the same way 2023 ended, with the general feeling being the Sox are going to have to land a front line starter or two in free agency if they want to be more than a team that hopes they can snag a 3rd wild card spot if things break right.
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Post by benfromma on Mar 24, 2024 10:01:42 GMT -5
I am a Red Sox fan and always will be. I am truly disappointed with the product ownership has put on the field this year. There have been multiple opportunities to sign players that would help this year's roster without hurting their long term goal of using prospects to compete in future seasons. I am 72 years old and hope to enjoy those future seasons but each season is important to me. I love the fact some fans see hope but unfortunately I see a 75 win season and hope that I am wrong.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Mar 24, 2024 13:08:56 GMT -5
Got you by a decade and share similar concerns about how many more seasons are in me. Also share frustration that this young team’s potential this season may be wasted due to a disappointing off-season. But maybe not.
In reality, obvious performance improvements (some incremental or even speculative) are likely at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF and maybe even DH. This promises a better offense and defense than 2023. It’s a better lineup.
Though I wish the rotation were deeper than Criswell and Fitts, they are both adequate back end starters and potentially better than average depth. 2023 was sad with serious injuries impacting all 5 of Sale, Paxton, Kluber, Houck, Whitlock. It was Pivetta, Crawford and Bello who eventually shone bright and they, along with strong, healthy and better equipped Houck and Whitlock are the 2024 starting 5. That’s a good rotation. Each of them are equal to or better than most of the FA’s and tradeables who were available. If this rotation is the weakest link, it’s a uniquely strong one.
IMO the FO did a good job rebuilding the Pen around Jansen, Martin, Winck, Bernardino. I am hopeful this new pitching brain trust will, in fact, help Sox pitchers be their best selves.
My first vague memories of Sox fandom in a large, Soxfanatic family began with the ‘46 WS. The last 20 Red Sox years have been largely wonderful. If things go at all well in 2024, IMO this team will contend for a playoff spot AND be the core of the next great team; which I plan to thoroughly enjoy.
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Post by dcb26 on Mar 24, 2024 19:23:40 GMT -5
I think the long-term prospects for the organization are stronger than last year, but that the team in the majors this year is a little worse. That said, I'll predict 83 wins as I think last year's record was influenced by excessive bad luck, excessive underperformance, and the manager quitting on the team with a month and a half left in the season. There is a lot that *could* go right this year, which should make them fun to root for and hopefully to watch. My skepticism comes from the fact that too many of these sound a little too much like "well, how bad a SS could Hernandez really be? It's not like he could singlehandedly tank the entire season" from a year ago. I don't think this offseason was handled very well, but there were definitely a couple of moves that look good, and I'm very happy to see that they didn't deplete the top prospect depth for quick fixes. I'll always root for the Red Sox to win, but especially in 2024 I'll be looking for a good draft, solid performances from the young players in the majors, and continued development from the minors; given that, the Red Sox could be in a very enviable position a year from now, despite all of the media noise that will suggest otherwise.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,020
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Post by cdj on Mar 24, 2024 20:17:59 GMT -5
86 wins amidst relentless negativity as outside noise
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 24, 2024 21:00:48 GMT -5
I'm glass more than half-full this year. I'll go with 162 wins.
Looking forward to seeing what they can do. I think it'll fun!
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