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2024 Red Sox win projections
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 24, 2024 21:05:52 GMT -5
gerry, benfromma...
My attitude is that I waited 55 years for my first championship, I can wait a few more for my fifth.
On the other hand, a championship this year keeps them on the championship every 4 years pace. Anybody doing it better ?
Entitled ? Maybe....
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 24, 2024 21:13:02 GMT -5
I'm glass more than half-full this year. I'll go with 162 wins. Looking forward to seeing what they can do. I think it'll fun! Should be a lot of fun, several players feature excitement on both sides of the plate and some unique, likeable personalities. Casas strikes me as having a personality that's a cross between Lars and Bill Lee, marches to his own beat but in a likeable way.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 24, 2024 22:03:02 GMT -5
gerry, benfromma... My attitude is that I waited 55 years for my first championship, I can wait a few more for my fifth. On the other hand, a championship this year keeps them on the championship every 4 years pace. Anybody doing it better ? Entitled ? Maybe.... If the Red Sox don't win a World Series this season, they'll be on their second-longest championship drought since 1912.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Mar 24, 2024 22:13:18 GMT -5
gerry, benfromma... My attitude is that I waited 55 years for my first championship, I can wait a few more for my fifth. On the other hand, a championship this year keeps them on the championship every 4 years pace. Anybody doing it better ? Entitled ? Maybe.... If the Red Sox don't win a World Series this season, they'll be on their second-longest championship drought since 1912. I'm NOT waiting another 86 years for the next championship......but I'm willing to wait til next year. This year, however, 88 wins sneak into the playoffs and win one round.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Mar 24, 2024 22:27:13 GMT -5
Got you by a decade and share similar concerns about how many more seasons are in me. Also share frustration that this young team’s potential this season may be wasted due to a disappointing off-season. But maybe not. In reality, obvious performance improvements (some incremental or even speculative) are likely at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF and maybe even DH. This promises a better offense and defense than 2023. It’s a better lineup. Though I wish the rotation were deeper than Criswell and Fitts, they are both adequate back end starters and potentially better than average depth. 2023 was sad with serious injuries impacting all 5 of Sale, Paxton, Kluber, Houck, Whitlock. It was Pivetta, Crawford and Bello who eventually shone bright and they, along with strong, healthy and better equipped Houck and Whitlock are the 2024 starting 5. That’s a good rotation. Each of them are equal to or better than most of the FA’s and tradeables who were available. If this rotation is the weakest link, it’s uniquely strong one. IMO the FO did a good job rebuilding the Pen around Jansen, Martin, Whitlock, Bernardino. I am hopeful this new pitching brain trust will, in fact, help Sox pitchers be their best selves. My first vague memories of Sox fandom in a large, Soxfanatic family began with the ‘46 WS. The last 20 Red Sox years have been largely wonderful. If things go at all well in 2024, IMO this team will contend for a playoff spot AND be the core of the next great team; which I plan to thoroughly enjoy. Gerry hope you are around to see many more Red Sox WS. My 54 years as a Red Sox die hard come up way short. Glad we get to see the kids come up, and I hope they are as successful as we hope.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 25, 2024 7:54:53 GMT -5
AL East predictions:
Yankees 92-70 Orioles 84-78 Red Sox 81-81 Blue Jays 80-82 Rays 80-82
I don't think this division is as strong as its reputation.
- The Yankees are vulnerable because of how top-heavy they are, but I think people are underappreciating how much they've done to add depth. With Verdugo and Grisham they've got a lot of outfield depth, and young guys help in the infield as well. Their bullpen is always good. And while Cashman has a weird kink for getting rid of SP depth, I think Stroman will be annoyingly good for them. And a team with Judge and Soto can win a lot of games even when the starter is like Luis Gil.
- Orioles were the weakest 101-win team in living memory. They were 16th in starting pitcher WAR and 11th in positional player WAR. Their one real strength was the bullpen, but that is notoriously unreliable, and guess what? Fangraphs depth charts has their 2024 bullpen projected to be third-worst in the majors. They added Kimbrel, for god's sake; that alone will probably cost them 3 or 4 wins. Burnes is obviously a huge addition, and their young talent is ridiculous, but I think they're gonna take a big step back.
- The Red Sox, maddeningly, are in a position to strike with the impressive breadth (if not strength) of their young talent, but just couldn't quite figure out a way to spend all the money in their pockets. Specifically, it just seems almost certain that the lack of pitching depth is going to bite them at some point this season. What'll be interesting, though, is that almost every player on the roster (other than Pivetta, Martin, and Jansen) is potentially part of the team's long-term plans. Almost every at-bat all season long will be a little portent of the future.
- The Blue Jays won 90 games last season. That was with Chapman giving them 3.5 WAR; they replaced him with Kiner-Falefa and a 39-year-old Justin Turner. And it was with Brandon Belt giving them 2.3 WAR; they replaced him with a 79-year-old Joey Votto. And it was with 2.2 WAR and a 104 wRC+ season from Kiermaier, who is going to be 34. And it was with an uncommonly healthy starting rotation; Gausman is already injured. Windows of contention tend to open and to close a year or two before people expect them to. I think this is the year the Jays' window starts to close.
- I dunno, the Rays have to have a down year some time, don't they? Why not in the year when Wander Franco and Tyler Glasnow have both left? That's 8 WAR from last season out the door.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 25, 2024 10:30:15 GMT -5
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Post by asm18 on Mar 25, 2024 11:00:00 GMT -5
Read this earlier by of all people... Tony Mazz? With Turner, Duvall, Verdugo, Kiké out - and Duran (full-time), Rafaela, O'Neill, Story in - the defensive potential, base-running, and overall athleticism of the team is at a different level than last year.
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Post by chaimtime on Mar 25, 2024 12:09:24 GMT -5
Small sample size, Spring Training stats don’t matter, etc etc, but I like what I see here:
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Post by brendan98 on Mar 25, 2024 21:20:11 GMT -5
I’ve always been an optimist when it comes to the Red Sox, but I really like this team. I like the young hungry players. I like the athleticism. I like the improved defense. I think there is reason for hope with the rotation. My biggest concern, depth in the rotation (so very happy about the addition of Anderson).
I’m not going to predict a record, but I like this team in the AL East more than the Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays. My prediction is 2nd in the AL East behind the Orioles, and a Wild Card playoff berth.
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Post by trotman on Mar 26, 2024 13:45:07 GMT -5
Not sure if this fits in here but Redsox.com's Opening Day FAQ had a surprising sentence that made me doubletake. "For both teams, anything short of the postseason would be a huge disappointment -- and the path for each to October begins on Opening Day at T-Mobile Park." www.mlb.com/redsox/news/red-sox-mariners-2024-opening-day-faqI'm getting more optimistic as spring training progresses and would love a playoff run but it'll take ~88 wins to get in. Put me down for 84-78. I hope some of the expiring contracts get traded at the deadline and they let the kids play.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 26, 2024 13:51:24 GMT -5
Not sure if this fits in here but Redsox.com's Opening Day FAQ had a surprising sentence that made me doubletake. "For both teams, anything short of the postseason would be a huge disappointment -- and the path for each to October begins on Opening Day at T-Mobile Park." www.mlb.com/redsox/news/red-sox-mariners-2024-opening-day-faqI'm getting more optimistic as spring training progresses and would love a playoff run but it'll take ~88 wins to get in. Put me down for 84-78. I hope some of the expiring contracts get traded at the deadline and they let the kids play. I think that estimate is a little high. Szymborski has 86 wins as the median estimate for the third wild card in the AL. A true talent .500 team is a handful of lucky bounces from getting to 86 wins (or a handful of unlucky bounces from 76).
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Post by trotman on Mar 26, 2024 15:09:47 GMT -5
Not sure if this fits in here but Redsox.com's Opening Day FAQ had a surprising sentence that made me doubletake. "For both teams, anything short of the postseason would be a huge disappointment -- and the path for each to October begins on Opening Day at T-Mobile Park." www.mlb.com/redsox/news/red-sox-mariners-2024-opening-day-faqI'm getting more optimistic as spring training progresses and would love a playoff run but it'll take ~88 wins to get in. Put me down for 84-78. I hope some of the expiring contracts get traded at the deadline and they let the kids play. I think that estimate is a little high. Szymborski has 86 wins as the median estimate for the third wild card in the AL. A true talent .500 team is a handful of lucky bounces from getting to 86 wins (or a handful of unlucky bounces from 76). 88 was just a guesstimate after checking the standings the last handful of years. Going back from 2023 to 2018 (excluding 2020) the 3rd or would be 3rd wild card was 89, 86, 91, 93, 90. Without evidence it seems there is a greater gap between good teams and the bad teams with fewer middling teams. I hope the win threshold is 86.
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Post by yuchangclan on Mar 26, 2024 15:35:47 GMT -5
Put me down for 80 wins. I think the starting pitching will be lousy and not give enough innings. This will lead to a pretty good bullpen quickly getting worn down. We’ve seen this movie before. The season hasn’t started yet, so I think this is fair game. I’d like to add 2 wins to my forecast and move it to 82. This is based on defensive upgrades in Rafaela and O’Neill and, most importantly, a full season from Story. I think they will be a lot better with run prevention but my pitching concerns still remain. I’m also excited for a season of Duran and Rafaela on the basepaths. They haven’t had a duo like that in a while. Hoping everyone can remain healthy and productive!
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Post by pappyman99 on Mar 26, 2024 18:04:17 GMT -5
I’m going 85.5 wins over under.
I think we surprise this year. If Pivetta and this new pitch are true then I think we have a rotation of a number 2 (Bello) and all 3s
Especially with houck, Whitlock, and Crawford being established and knowing their roles
Bullpen still seems nice, defense will be better and lineup seems better
A little optimism before the season starts
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Post by dirtdog on Mar 26, 2024 19:42:36 GMT -5
78 wins. Too much has to go right to expect more. If enough of the kids show development, I will call it a win.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Mar 26, 2024 20:31:09 GMT -5
I think this team is currently good enough to win the AL Central or NL Central.
AL East is a heavyweight division. I think they will finish above .500, nonetheless.
I think they are being overlooked and underrated in all facets of the game. I think they collectively, and individually, have much to prove.
However, I ultimately hope they are far enough out to make it an easy decision to sell at the deadline. They should cash in on the Jansen/Martin/O'Neill/Pivetta group, stack *Breslow ID'd* arms, and free up cash. But, this will be a tough sell to the fanbase if they are in the thick of it. Even if they are, we all know this is not their year. Lean into it.
The way Fitts looked today, I would love to see him establish the changeup and cutter as legitimate secondaries, and project himself into Pivetta's current spot.
Pivetta ($8M) + Jansen ($16M) + Martin ($8M) = $32M ~ 1 ace pitcher
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Post by asm18 on Mar 26, 2024 21:49:27 GMT -5
In 2022 Sale getting hurt right away (and then having his finger destroyed via Aaron Hicks) and only pitching 5 innings proved more than the rest of the team’s pitching depth could handle. In 2023 Trevor Story getting elbow surgery appeared to be a grievous wound to the team - something they nearly overcame with a gritty Turner-led lineup before the wheels came off in August.
How would you all characterize the Giolito injury in terms of win totals? Is that “a significant loss, but something that can be overcome if Bello/Pivetta/etc are good” or are we going to look back in 6 months and say “yeah once Gio got hurt, we should have known the season was screwed”? I’m leaning towards the former but losing your main pitching acquisition after making that your priority over the off-season is… oooph.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 26, 2024 22:24:55 GMT -5
This will be a season of many "if"s. It will certainly be interesting. But will it be interesting and enjoyable?
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Post by briam on Mar 27, 2024 10:28:28 GMT -5
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Post by bishop on Mar 27, 2024 13:52:31 GMT -5
In 2022 Sale getting hurt right away (and then having his finger destroyed via Aaron Hicks) and only pitching 5 innings proved more than the rest of the team’s pitching depth could handle. In 2023 Trevor Story getting elbow surgery appeared to be a grievous wound to the team - something they nearly overcame with a gritty Turner-led lineup before the wheels came off in August. How would you all characterize the Giolito injury in terms of win totals? Is that “a significant loss, but something that can be overcome if Bello/Pivetta/etc are good” or are we going to look back in 6 months and say “yeah once Gio got hurt, we should have known the season was screwed”? I’m leaning towards the former but losing your main pitching acquisition after making that your priority over the off-season is… oooph. I don't think it's a matter of Bello/Pivetta needing to be great, it's a matter of all 5 starters staying healthy which isn't a place I like being in 2024. Giolito had upside if we saw something correctable, but a healthy Whitlock might even have better numbers by the ZIPS of the world, we just have zero margin for error health wise. If 2 of our current rotation give us 30 starts and the other 3 25 each and we avoid serious injury/underperformance I'd be pretty happy, but that leaves 27 starts for Cooper Criswell (or Josh Wincowski, or Chase Anderson, or MYSTERY BOX). I like Whitlock and Houck getting a chance, Criswell pitched well enough in spring training I'm willing to see him do the occasional spot start but I don't want him as our 5th starter without seeing a whole lot more in his first couple spot starts or in Worcester, and we're one pitch away from that now. So I don't think you can say in hindsight we should have known when Gio went down we were doomed, but if you get one more injury and the season kinda falls apart because we're getting 0 out of our starter once a week despite our defense and baserunning making a leap and our hitting holding steady despite the turnover and youth that would be really disappointing. (It's also fixable in season with a trade if one of them goes down and I won't hold not signing another FA pitcher against them if they are ready to immediately pivot and acquire a competent starter that way.)
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Post by levi on Mar 27, 2024 15:18:58 GMT -5
Did Clay Davenport's model break? His model now projects the Red Sox for 2nd place (88-74) despite having a lower combined WARP (Off+Def) than any other AL East team.
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Post by bishop on Mar 27, 2024 18:20:48 GMT -5
Did Clay Davenport's model break? His model now projects the Red Sox for 2nd place (88-74) despite having a lower combined WARP (Off+Def) than any other AL East team. Looks broken to me if I'm reading that "Runs" column right? The projections like our offense as a top 5-10 one but that main page has us at 318 and #2 in MLB at 298 so like 7% better than the #2 offense which doesn't track with the spreadsheet. (I also don't know if that is what "Runs" means when they're all around 250-300 and Runs Allowed looks like actual Runs Allowed totals and has the Sox as the clear 5th best pitching staff in the division.)
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Post by soxfaninnj on Mar 27, 2024 23:14:40 GMT -5
My guess is 92 wins
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Post by keninten on Mar 28, 2024 2:09:53 GMT -5
Baltimore should win the division. Boston, Toronto, and TB fight for second place. The only remaining team is so top heavy it will fall over and land at the bottom. I`ve said for years the Sox being a big spending team that we don`t get to see a complete rebuild. The last 3 years have been a partial rebuild that failed. Now I think they are going full throttle rebuild this season to see what they have. I`m excited about the season. I`ll predict 87 wins and 3rd place.
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