SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
|
Post by bookiemetts on Jan 14, 2016 17:47:14 GMT -5
For the guys above talking about "the eye test" and power numbers I decided to make a couple videos. There's a video for both X and Mookie showing every homer they hit last year. At the end I put just the swings back to back as well. I interpolated the video to 60fps to try to get it smoother than the source video so hopefully they are alright. Not sure how useful this stuff is but I enjoyed learning how to make them, and have a JBJ one rendering now. If people want me to make some other videos I'd be glad to.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,930
|
Post by nomar on Jan 14, 2016 18:19:23 GMT -5
This is great. Thank you!
|
|
|
Post by humanbeingbean on Jan 14, 2016 18:25:58 GMT -5
For the guys above talking about "the eye test" and power numbers I decided to make a couple videos. There's a video for both X and Mookie showing every homer they hit last year. At the end I put just the swings back to back as well. I interpolated the video to 60fps to try to get it smoother than the source video so hopefully they are alright. Not sure how useful this stuff is but I enjoyed learning how to make them, and have a JBJ one rendering now. If people want me to make some other videos I'd be glad to. These are great!
|
|
|
Post by ray88h66 on Jan 14, 2016 18:36:40 GMT -5
Cool stuff. Watching it all back to back you see Xander's strength, and Mookie's quickness clearly. Any pitcher that throws Mookie an inside fastball should be fined.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 14, 2016 18:56:36 GMT -5
Thank you very much for taking the time to put this together.
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Jan 14, 2016 19:10:30 GMT -5
Great work -- both of those clips just got me so amped for 2016 Red Sox baseball. Mookie's hands move through the zone at an otherworldly rate, and Xander's got some serious power he'll increasingly be able to integrate into his refined approach. You watch clips like that and remember how great they were in 2015 - then you realize the best is yet to come
|
|
mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,813
|
Post by mobaz on Jan 15, 2016 7:02:56 GMT -5
Thanks! God I love Mookie Betts. My favorite part is how quick he is out of the batter's box even on likely HRs. His swing is soo quick but so tight he gets a really fast first step.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,930
|
Post by nomar on Jan 15, 2016 7:21:24 GMT -5
The wave in Bogaerts swing kind of concerns me. It almost looks like he's swinging one handed.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jan 15, 2016 7:40:31 GMT -5
It's interesting that every one of those home runs was pulled except one of Xander's to CF. It's a good thing Mookie doesn't bat LH in Fenway.
|
|
|
Post by sox fan in nc on Jan 15, 2016 8:45:14 GMT -5
It's interesting that every one of those home runs was pulled except one of Xander's to CF. It's a good thing Mookie doesn't bat LH in Fenway. I'd almost argue that he loses HR's in Fenway due to his line drives off the wall. He doesn't exactly hit towering shots that just make it to the 1st row in the monster seats. Rice also had this problem. With the AL east stadiums, I would think even as a lefty, he would get his share.
|
|
|
Post by ibsmith85 on Jan 15, 2016 9:36:40 GMT -5
Great work, thanks. Hopefully both videos are a bit longer next year!!!
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jan 15, 2016 9:52:52 GMT -5
It's interesting that every one of those home runs was pulled except one of Xander's to CF. It's a good thing Mookie doesn't bat LH in Fenway. I'd almost argue that he loses HR's in Fenway due to his line drives off the wall. He doesn't exactly hit towering shots that just make it to the 1st row in the monster seats. Rice also had this problem. With the AL east stadiums, I would think even as a lefty, he would get his share. Those doubles off the wall are a lot better than what would be fly outs to RF. He does tend to hit a lot of fly balls though, which is perfect for him as a pull hitter in Fenway. Rice was way more of a line drive hitter, kind of like Hanley.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jan 15, 2016 9:59:45 GMT -5
It's pretty clear to me from watching those videos that Xander has a lot more raw power than Mookie. He didn't hit many cheapies. It was just too rare that he'd really turn on those middle-in pitches. Hopefully the game power starts showing up more and more, because I see pretty easy 25 HR power for him. Mookie probably won't add a lot of game power, but I could definitely see him turning into a .400 OBP guy some years. It's so amazing to have these two kids who are the same age and are both great hitters in such different ways.
|
|
gerry
Veteran
Enter your message here...
Posts: 1,688
Member is Online
|
Post by gerry on Jan 18, 2016 3:30:38 GMT -5
Just watched this for the first time. Wow! Thank you. Feats of Mookie. Feats of Xander. Their power is Monstercentric, a good thing, but they can keep the line moving even on pitches on the outside. As they adjust they will be frustrating to pitch to. Gonna be a great year watching them. Now if feats of Papi, Pedey, Hanley, Panda, Swihart, JBJ, Castillo, Young and Shaw contribute as they are capable, even in streaks, this will be a powerful team, and one with a solid OBP. And if pitchng and defense win games, well, this is a pretty complete and balanced package that will be fun to watch in its entirety. Getting anxious for ST to begin.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,946
|
Post by ericmvan on Jan 18, 2016 23:44:04 GMT -5
It's pretty clear to me from watching those videos that Xander has a lot more raw power than Mookie. He didn't hit many cheapies. It was just too rare that he'd really turn on those middle-in pitches. Hopefully the game power starts showing up more and more, because I see pretty easy 25 HR power for him. Mookie probably won't add a lot of game power, but I could definitely see him turning into a .400 OBP guy some years. It's so amazing to have these two kids who are the same age and are both great hitters in such different ways. I'm as impressed as everyone else with those videos. I had the same thought: lots more work to do it next year ... we hope! Here's what HitTrackerOnline says about Sox HR last year. I've included folks with 5 or more HR who are still with the team. The first table is all HRs, the second excludes those that would have been homers in less than 15 big league parks (the number reported in the first column of both tables). That's because getting lucky and hitting a cheap Fenway or Yankee Stadium homer will decrease the average exit speed and distance of all of your homers. From the first table, for instance, it's clear that Hanley had the hardest set of homers, but it's not because he was hitting the ball the hardest -- it's because he's the only guy who didn't have even one cheapie. Which, BTW, is further cause for optimism about him bouncing back at the plate. "Dist" is true distance, adjusted for wind, elevation, and temperature. "Spread" is the standard deviation of the horizontal angle of the HRs (out of the 90 degrees from the Pesky pole (45) to the Fisk (135)). Name Parks Dist Speed Elev Spread Ramirez, Hanley 25.3 394.9 105.0 26.8 18.7 Betts, Mookie 23.6 393.9 103.4 27.9 7.3 Bogaerts, Xand. 23.4 391.0 102.2 29.7 10.3 Ortiz, David 23.4 401.3 104.7 28.0 15.3 Sandoval, Pablo 21.5 390.7 104.8 25.0 19.9 Shaw, Travis 21.0 394.2 104.5 27.1 14.2 Pedroia, Dustin 20.7 383.1 100.6 29.6 6.5 Bradley, Jackie 19.2 396.6 101.9 28.1 18.3 Castillo, Rusn. 17.2 396.0 100.7 28.1 12.5 Swihart, Blake 14.8 390.8 102.0 27.1 16.4
Name Parks Dist Speed Elev Spread Shaw, Travis 27.2 406.7 106.8 25.7 13.9 Bogaerts, Xand. 26.5 392.2 103.0 29.7 10.6 Ortiz, David 26.4 407.8 105.7 27.7 12.9 Betts, Mookie 26.2 396.9 104.5 27.0 7.2 Bradley, Jackie 26.1 411.0 104.0 27.3 13.6 Pedroia, Dustin 25.8 387.1 101.3 28.5 7.3 Ramirez, Hanley 25.3 394.9 105.0 26.8 18.7 Sandoval, Pablo 24.6 387.0 105.1 25.6 22.0 Swihart, Blake 23.7 411.3 105.3 26.5 14.3 Castillo, Rusn. 18.8 399.0 101.4 27.5 14.2 Xander looks like he has more power because he hits 'em way up. (And, I think, because we know he does, from past video.) Shaw crushes line drive homers, consistent with his Hit/fx performance a year ago in the AFL. Hanley and Sandoval both use the whole field and hit 'em hard and low. Hmm, what else do they have in common? Oops, never mind. In the second, better table, who is the player who JBJ most resembles? Papi. Pedroia and Betts both hit their homers into a tiny cluster. Furthermore, Pedroia's average angle (non-cheap) was 108.8 and Betts' was 109.3. But of course, Pedroia's go higher and are hit less hard.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 25, 2016 1:31:38 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 25, 2016 8:04:01 GMT -5
Xander looks like he has more power because he hits 'em way up That's probably the explanation for something I noticed in the videos ... Orsillo went into his home run call earlier in Bogaerts homeruns consistently. Almost every one of Betts's homeruns got some kind of "struck pretty well, [outfielder] going back, and GONE," while Bogaerts were more "deep and far to left!" while the ball was still in the air. Was wondering why as I was watching because Betts homeruns went at least as far and often farther.
|
|
|
Post by ibsmith85 on Jan 25, 2016 8:16:51 GMT -5
The link didn't work for me, but intrigued me enough to find the cover art. Good for Mookie, gotta be pretty cool gracing a video game cover. He, Papi, and Pedroia all share the claim now.
|
|
|
Post by humanbeingbean on Jan 25, 2016 11:43:28 GMT -5
Hopefully Mookie makes it onto an MLB: The Show cover as well.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jan 25, 2016 15:02:53 GMT -5
It's pretty clear to me from watching those videos that Xander has a lot more raw power than Mookie. He didn't hit many cheapies. It was just too rare that he'd really turn on those middle-in pitches. Hopefully the game power starts showing up more and more, because I see pretty easy 25 HR power for him. Mookie probably won't add a lot of game power, but I could definitely see him turning into a .400 OBP guy some years. It's so amazing to have these two kids who are the same age and are both great hitters in such different ways. I'm as impressed as everyone else with those videos. I had the same thought: lots more work to do it next year ... we hope! Here's what HitTrackerOnline says about Sox HR last year. I've included folks with 5 or more HR who are still with the team. The first table is all HRs, the second excludes those that would have been homers in less than 15 big league parks (the number reported in the first column of both tables). That's because getting lucky and hitting a cheap Fenway or Yankee Stadium homer will decrease the average exit speed and distance of all of your homers. From the first table, for instance, it's clear that Hanley had the hardest set of homers, but it's not because he was hitting the ball the hardest -- it's because he's the only guy who didn't have even one cheapie. Which, BTW, is further cause for optimism about him bouncing back at the plate. "Dist" is true distance, adjusted for wind, elevation, and temperature. "Spread" is the standard deviation of the horizontal angle of the HRs (out of the 90 degrees from the Pesky pole (45) to the Fisk (135)). Name Parks Dist Speed Elev Spread Ramirez, Hanley 25.3 394.9 105.0 26.8 18.7 Betts, Mookie 23.6 393.9 103.4 27.9 7.3 Bogaerts, Xand. 23.4 391.0 102.2 29.7 10.3 Ortiz, David 23.4 401.3 104.7 28.0 15.3 Sandoval, Pablo 21.5 390.7 104.8 25.0 19.9 Shaw, Travis 21.0 394.2 104.5 27.1 14.2 Pedroia, Dustin 20.7 383.1 100.6 29.6 6.5 Bradley, Jackie 19.2 396.6 101.9 28.1 18.3 Castillo, Rusn. 17.2 396.0 100.7 28.1 12.5 Swihart, Blake 14.8 390.8 102.0 27.1 16.4
Name Parks Dist Speed Elev Spread Shaw, Travis 27.2 406.7 106.8 25.7 13.9 Bogaerts, Xand. 26.5 392.2 103.0 29.7 10.6 Ortiz, David 26.4 407.8 105.7 27.7 12.9 Betts, Mookie 26.2 396.9 104.5 27.0 7.2 Bradley, Jackie 26.1 411.0 104.0 27.3 13.6 Pedroia, Dustin 25.8 387.1 101.3 28.5 7.3 Ramirez, Hanley 25.3 394.9 105.0 26.8 18.7 Sandoval, Pablo 24.6 387.0 105.1 25.6 22.0 Swihart, Blake 23.7 411.3 105.3 26.5 14.3 Castillo, Rusn. 18.8 399.0 101.4 27.5 14.2 Xander looks like he has more power because he hits 'em way up. (And, I think, because we know he does, from past video.) Shaw crushes line drive homers, consistent with his Hit/fx performance a year ago in the AFL. Hanley and Sandoval both use the whole field and hit 'em hard and low. Hmm, what else do they have in common? Oops, never mind. In the second, better table, who is the player who JBJ most resembles? Papi. Pedroia and Betts both hit their homers into a tiny cluster. Furthermore, Pedroia's average angle (non-cheap) was 108.8 and Betts' was 109.3. But of course, Pedroia's go higher and are hit less hard. Interesting analysis, Eric. I like the take-home point about JBJ...if people recall, Papi had a rough few years in MN before breaking out. He hit the ball hard but with a lot of low liners and ground balls. Obviously JBJ doesn't have Papi's raw power, but he did crush some balls last year, and he uses the opposite field well, too. They have similar pitch recognition skills as well. Both toyed a lot with their swings for a couple of years. So I'm cautiously optimistic that JBJ can produce offensively with fair consistency. Shaw's AFL performance was second (if even) only to Kris Bryant, and shows his history of absolutely crushing line drives. I hold out hope that his recognition skills and willingness to use the whole field are his (modifiable) issues. I'm hopeful too that Bogaerts can selectively jump on more middle-in pitches and use that loft this year.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 1, 2016 11:25:44 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Jun 1, 2016 11:52:18 GMT -5
yeah, he and Xander should switch, no question. (my opinion, not fact.) While I've suggested and argued this elsewhere too, in the end, it probably just doesn't matter tha much where these guys hit. Tough to shake things up when they're going so well on all fronts.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 1, 2016 12:12:52 GMT -5
I only worry that Mookie could go all in on the HR approach, as it seemed to me that Middlebrooks did after his 3 HR game, but Mookie crushed one HR to cf and the ball to RF was also demolished with impressive oppo pop. If anything his BABIP goes up and the guy is on pace for over 100 rbi as a lead off guy and 150 runs scored. Maybe keeping him where he is enables special Mookie stealth mode and he keeps getting pitched to but my bet is he just has such good contact rates and bat speed that he can take that inside pitch out of the park anyway even when it isn't a strike. He creams the ball out over the plate anywhere so they aren't going to walk him anyway unless it's intentional.
There are so many interesting things about Mookie. Since AA I've been noticing that he projects io score more runs than Ellsbury did. Look at his ability to score runs. He absolutely is a better lead off guy than Ellbury, except for that great 2013 season probably. Even with a lower OBP his pop compensates for it. Ellsbury was just coming into the league by the time he was Mookie's age, if I remember correctly. He is a run scoring machine who probably is coming into his best baseball just now. Who the hell is McCutchen?
Xander should be a solid lead off guy also with the crunch brothers of Pedroia, Mookie, Ortiz and Hanley hitting after him. I think almost anyone hitting in front of Ortiz right now is going to get pitches to hit. Can Xander be the same player without Ortiz behind him?
If they are worried about Mookie getting pitched to going forward slot him in front of Ortiz!
|
|
|
Post by brendan98 on Jun 1, 2016 12:39:18 GMT -5
I was at last nights game, what an unbelievable night for Mookie, out of the 3 homers, I liked the last one best because he hit an outside pitch out to RF. My son and I have been disagreeing all year on who is the better hitter, he prefers Mookie and I've preferred Xander. My argument is that there is no place that you can consistently get Xander out, but Mookie has struggled with pitches on the outside part of the plate, too often he tries to pull that pitch and weakly rolls it over. I've been telling my son all year that if/when Mookie learns to go with that pitch and drive it the other way, he is going to be one of the biggest stars in the game, to see him not only go with the outside fastball from Bundy last night, but to drive it out of the ballpark, was awe inspiring, if this kid continues learning and making adjustments like he has been since arriving in Boston he will become a superstar.
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 1, 2016 23:14:40 GMT -5
Demolition derby in Baltimore for Mookie. What a talent.
|
|
|