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The Big Bad Mookie Betts Thread
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 17, 2016 10:21:16 GMT -5
Mookie is now 3rd in bWAR at 6.9, and 4th in fWAR at 6.0 At the rate he's going, he could be close to 9 bWAR by season's end. Current list as of AM Aug 17 - both leagues Trout 7.7 Altuve 7.0 MOOKIE 6.9 Donaldson 6.3 Bryant (tops for NL) 5.5 Machado 5.5 Incorporating WPA (improved methodology): 7.5 Trout 6.5 Donaldson 6.0 Betts 5.8 Machado
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 17, 2016 11:16:28 GMT -5
Thanks ericmvan. I confess to being more of an "aesthetic baseball fan" (avid game/watcher listener) than deep stats person - so the efforts of the many here that share/use the advanced stats is appreciated.
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Post by jmei on Aug 18, 2016 16:23:29 GMT -5
More on Betts and how pitches have began to throw fewer fastballs and fewer pitches in the zone against him: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitchers-have-taken-notice-of-mookie-betts/As he gets pitched more carefully, he'll likely hit for less power. But it will come with more walks, and there's a chance Mookie gets stronger (remember, he's just 23) and begins driving the ball more to the opposite field when he inevitably sees more outside pitches.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 30, 2016 10:15:45 GMT -5
Mookie's on a pace for a 9.4 bWAR season. Here is the complete list of players who matched or bettered that age 23 or younger.
Ty Cobb (x2) Eddie Collins Rogers Hornsby Ted Williams (x2) Stan Musial Willie Mays Mickey Mantle Cal Ripken Alex Rodriguez Mike Trout (x2) Bryce Harper
Cobb, Musial, Williams, and Harper were the only corner OFers; it's never been done by a 1B.
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Post by sox fan in nc on Aug 30, 2016 10:46:41 GMT -5
I hope he wins the MVP. I'll have to admit though, a small part of me does not want him to win. It will be that much more difficult to lock him up. It's going to hard as it is.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 30, 2016 10:59:10 GMT -5
I hope he wins the MVP. I'll have to admit though, a small part of me does not want him to win. It will be that much more difficult to lock him up. It's going to hard as it is. People, agents, teams today are too smart to not know what Mookie is worth already. He can win or lose MVP, either way he's making a ton of money. This season has shown that he's much more important than Bogaerts is to retain, though. I think that was much more of a debate in April.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 30, 2016 11:21:13 GMT -5
Donaldson faces Ubaldo tonight. He has a 36% K rate against Ubaldo and a .746 OPS. Hope he cools off.
Rob Pizzola is constantly bad mouthing Mookie and touts cherry picked Donaldson stats on Twitter. Toronto fans have become just as insufferable as Sox and Yankee fans on social media. They'll crawl back into the woodwork as their offensive stars all age.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 30, 2016 11:27:00 GMT -5
Donaldson faces Ubaldo tonight. He has a 36% K rate against Ubaldo and a .746 OPS. Hope he cools off. Rob Pizzola is constantly bad mouthing Mookie and touts cherry picked Donaldson stats on Twitter. Toronto fans have become just as insufferable as Sox and Yankee fans on social media. They'll crawl back into the woodwork as their offensive stars all age. That's kind of like blaming all Red Sox fans for whichever Andelman is most annoying.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 30, 2016 11:30:44 GMT -5
Here's the thing about ranking by WAR in Mookie's case, he would be higher still if he played CF which we all know he can play well (maybe as well as Trout) but because JBJ is there and is superior to probably anyone Mookie plays RF and gets corner OF ratings instead of CF ratings. Unfortunately there is no way that bit of esoterica will figure into any but a few voters minds.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 30, 2016 11:37:24 GMT -5
Donaldson faces Ubaldo tonight. He has a 36% K rate against Ubaldo and a .746 OPS. Hope he cools off. Rob Pizzola is constantly bad mouthing Mookie and touts cherry picked Donaldson stats on Twitter. Toronto fans have become just as insufferable as Sox and Yankee fans on social media. They'll crawl back into the woodwork as their offensive stars all age. That's kind of like blaming all Red Sox fans for whichever Andelman is most annoying. Hahaha fair counter. I didn't mean to directly relate him to an entire fanbase, but even at Fenway, on Reddit, ect, Blue Jay fans have been pretty obnoxious in comparison to other recently revitalized fanbases like Kansas City (who showed up in crazy force to Boston this weekend) or NYM. In my experience the Toronto fans have been way less respectful and are just thick headed more so than the average internet poster, which is saying something.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 30, 2016 11:50:23 GMT -5
Here's the thing about ranking by WAR in Mookie's case, he would be higher still if he played CF which we all know he can play well (maybe as well as Trout) but because JBJ is there and is superior to probably anyone Mookie plays RF and gets corner OF ratings instead of CF ratings. Unfortunately there is no way that bit of esoterica will figure into any but a few voters minds. Since I have never gotten into the advanced stat thing, I have a question: Is the way WAR calculated at all ballpark-adjusted, or is a corner OF a corner OF? I ask because RF at Fenway is not just another corner OF position. It is probably one of the most difficult and most critical corner OF positions in the majors.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 30, 2016 11:57:17 GMT -5
WAR accounts for park adjustments and it also includes defensive metrics. So a good right fielder at Fenway won't be the equivalent of a crummy one at Yankee Stadium.
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Post by jmei on Aug 30, 2016 14:24:43 GMT -5
WAR accounts for park adjustments and it also includes defensive metrics. So a good right fielder at Fenway won't be the equivalent of a crummy one at Yankee Stadium. Are you sure that WAR contains defensive park adjustments? I know that there are special cases where this is true (most notably LF in Fenway Park), but I wasn't aware that DRS or UZR otherwise adjusted for ballpark.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 30, 2016 14:51:46 GMT -5
WAR accounts for park adjustments and it also includes defensive metrics. So a good right fielder at Fenway won't be the equivalent of a crummy one at Yankee Stadium. In the positional adjustments portion of WAR though RF is treated equally everywhere, as in Mookie is being penalized a positionally adjusted 7.5 (or 7 for rWAR) runs the same way any other RF is. At least as best as I can tell.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 30, 2016 15:29:36 GMT -5
Here's the thing about ranking by WAR in Mookie's case, he would be higher still if he played CF which we all know he can play well (maybe as well as Trout) but because JBJ is there and is superior to probably anyone Mookie plays RF and gets corner OF ratings instead of CF ratings. Unfortunately there is no way that bit of esoterica will figure into any but a few voters minds. Since I have never gotten into the advanced stat thing, I have a question: Is the way WAR calculated at all ballpark-adjusted, or is a corner OF a corner OF? I ask because RF at Fenway is not just another corner OF position. It is probably one of the most difficult and most critical corner OF positions in the majors. Guys put up better numbers in RF than they do in CF, on average 8.4 runs per 150 games from 2004 to 2015; it used to be more like 6 runs. What's really interesting is that the difference in hitting between the positions in those years was just 6.6 runs, and it's trending downwards; the 10-year weighted difference is just 5.0 runs. More on that in a later post, maybe, but the short version is that it indicates a shortage of quality RF; too many guys playing there have CF-quality bats. (The LF situation is downright catastrophic; a CF who moves to LF will gain 12.4 runs of defensive value on average, but LF have only hit 0.4 runs better than CF over the last 10 years. There are just a handful of pure LF left; the position is largely manned by CFers and backups.) Now, WAR uses a bigger offensive adjustment. Still, the 8.4 defensive runs gained (on average) comes close to offsetting the lost value from the positional adjustment. If it didn't, you couldn't get away with moving guys to an easier position; you'd lose too much value. BTW, the difference in offense between RF and 2B (10-year weighted) is 11.1 runs. Mookie's on a pace for +17 in RF, which might really be only +15 or so (see below) ... could he be a +4 defensive 2B? That sounds in the ballpark. It doesn't seem like he's lost any actual value by moving from 2B to RF, but that's very much a function of the contemporary shortage of corner outfielders (and to a lesser extent, the glut of skill infielders). WAR accounts for park adjustments and it also includes defensive metrics. So a good right fielder at Fenway won't be the equivalent of a crummy one at Yankee Stadium. Are you sure that WAR contains defensive park adjustments? I know that there are special cases where this is true (most notably LF in Fenway Park), but I wasn't aware that DRS or UZR otherwise adjusted for ballpark. Chris Dial, one of the founding gurus of defensive metrics, is skeptical about the claims for park adjustments in DRS and UZR. I would say that there is very likely not an adjustment for RF in Fenway in either metric. However, that wouldn't necessarily damage Mookie's ratings, and it might actually help them. He can catch balls that very few fielders can catch, because in other parks they're in the seats. It's the opposite of LF in Fenway giving fewer chances, because balls that are catchable everywhere else are fifteen feet up the Wall.
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Post by michael on Aug 30, 2016 15:40:33 GMT -5
Mookie's on a pace for a 9.4 bWAR season. Here is the complete list of players who matched or bettered that age 23 or younger. Ty Cobb (x2) Eddie Collins Rogers Hornsby Ted Williams (x2) Stan Musial Willie Mays Mickey Mantle Cal Ripken Alex Rodriguez Mike Trout (x2) Bryce Harper Cobb, Musial, Williams, and Harper were the only corner OFers; it's never been done by a 1B. For all his usual thoroughness I can't believe that Eric failed to point out that the 4 corner outfielders have all been left handed hitters. Too small a sample to be Germaine?
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 30, 2016 17:06:23 GMT -5
WAR accounts for park adjustments and it also includes defensive metrics. So a good right fielder at Fenway won't be the equivalent of a crummy one at Yankee Stadium. Are you sure that WAR contains defensive park adjustments? I know that there are special cases where this is true (most notably LF in Fenway Park), but I wasn't aware that DRS or UZR otherwise adjusted for ballpark. MGL's original UZR definitely had a park effect component: www.baseballthinkfactory.org/primate_studies/discussion/lichtman_2003-03-21_0/The effectiveness of that calculation is certainly open to debate (which I will leave to others, but it does at least attempt to take park factors into effect.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 30, 2016 17:25:49 GMT -5
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Post by adamoraz on Aug 30, 2016 18:31:38 GMT -5
This season has shown that he's much more important than Bogaerts is to retain, though. I think that was much more of a debate in April. Yes but, that debate could swing right back the other way if say, X-Man hits .350 next year. I say lock them both up, just to be safe.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 8, 2016 9:50:32 GMT -5
Mookie is now above Donaldson in both b and fWAR for those paying attention to the MVP race. I think it'll likely come down to who wins the division.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 8, 2016 11:20:41 GMT -5
Mookie is now above Donaldson in both b and fWAR for those paying attention to the MVP race. I think it'll likely come down to who wins the division. Machado has been on fire, and both offensively and defensively is a more important part of his team than either Mookie or Donaldson. I'd like to see Mookie win, but I think it's coming down to Machado-Trout, with Trout getting shafted again because his team stinks.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 8, 2016 11:50:29 GMT -5
Mookie is now above Donaldson in both b and fWAR for those paying attention to the MVP race. I think it'll likely come down to who wins the division. Machado has been on fire, and both offensively and defensively is a more important part of his team than either Mookie or Donaldson. I'd like to see Mookie win, but I think it's coming down to Machado-Trout, with Trout getting shafted again because his team stinks. Mookie is 2nd in bWAR to Trout, who will not win because that's how voters are. Betts is 0.8 bWAR ahead of Donaldson and 1.4 bWAR ahead of Machado. Betts is 0.1 fWAR ahead of Donaldson and 0.7 fWAR ahead of Machado. Betts is, by both websites, the second best player in the AL. And his defense has been absolutely spectacular even if he isn't a third baseman. If the season ended today, and the Red Sox finished first in the division, I think Mookie would deserve MVP.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 8, 2016 14:01:12 GMT -5
Latest WPA-adjusted bWAR. This fixes a previous bug in the translation of runs to wins.
9.8 Trout (+.5 clutch)
7.6 Donaldson (+.6 clutch) 7.4 Betts (-.4 clutch)
6.3 Seager, K. 6.2 Machado 6.1 Cano 6.0 Altuve (-1.2 clutch)
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Post by telson13 on Sept 8, 2016 18:26:21 GMT -5
Machado has been on fire, and both offensively and defensively is a more important part of his team than either Mookie or Donaldson. I'd like to see Mookie win, but I think it's coming down to Machado-Trout, with Trout getting shafted again because his team stinks. Mookie is 2nd in bWAR to Trout, who will not win because that's how voters are. Betts is 0.8 bWAR ahead of Donaldson and 1.4 bWAR ahead of Machado. Betts is 0.1 fWAR ahead of Donaldson and 0.7 fWAR ahead of Machado. Betts is, by both websites, the second best player in the AL. And his defense has been absolutely spectacular even if he isn't a third baseman. If the season ended today, and the Red Sox finished first in the division, I think Mookie would deserve MVP. Fangraphs has been running a nice series on this. Personally, I think Mookie deserves the award if one factors in the whole "value" thing as being dependent on the playoffs. I'm simply presenting the devil's advocacy case for Machado if one equates value to "most indispensable" for a (potential) playoff team. If the Sox win the division and the O's miss the playoffs, it may be more of a 2-player race between Trout and Mookie. If one looks at it Bob Ryan-style, as "Most Outstanding Player," nobody really has a shot vs. Trout. Regardless, it's going to be a very interesting vote.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 12, 2016 10:52:02 GMT -5
Latest update, bWAR plus offensive clutch, measured yet another way. I'm just using FanGraph's measure this time, because I was double-counting SB value the way I was doing it before. I'm going to take a closer look later at how best to incorporate WPA into bWAR, and at whose BaseRunning metric is the best.
8.9 Trout 7.6 Beltre (! Under the radar, much? 10th in bWAR, 2.0 wins of clutch.) 7.5 Betts 6.6 Donaldson 6.6 Machado 6.6 Altuve 6.2 Seager
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