SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
MLB.com Top 100 Prospects
|
Post by dominicansoxfan on Sept 8, 2012 13:59:54 GMT -5
Don't forget about Carlos Martinez #28!
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Sept 8, 2012 14:21:19 GMT -5
I also found this quite disturbing. Mayo's pretty bad at his job. Best post on the new forum and pretty much closes this topic.
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 8, 2012 15:30:37 GMT -5
3. Despite the draft emphasis and an out-sized financial ability to accomplish the goal, our best drafted prospect in the cited survey is 42nd. There are 30 teams in the major leagues. One might reasonably expect that we would have at least one in the top 30 all things being equal. Having had more money to spend than most of our brethren, one might even hope for more. First off - Mayo is useless, his lists are completely useless and there is absolutely nothing that can be taken from them that will help us to understand the state of the Red Sox organization. Second, your premise is wrong. If you are going to exclude Bogaerts and only look at the drafted prospects then you need to back out ALL of the international free agents, not just Xander. On this list the Red Sox have the 32nd ranked drafted prospects as well as the 35th. Two of the top 35 is pretty darn good in a 30 team league. This is while also have one of the top 10 international free agents. But, like I said above, Mayo's lists are useless. Its like looking at Fantasy baseball rankings to determine who the best players are in baseball. There will be some rough correlation, but thats about it.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Sept 8, 2012 19:22:16 GMT -5
Sarasoxer; 1) Our current team has played terribly, but how does that reflect on this teams ability to draft. Yes teams that draft poorly often struggle to have good MLB squads, but this is not always the case. Nor is the draft the only path to success ie: The Phillies). Bad contracts, under-performing veterans, a cultural malaise in the clubhouse, lack of flexibility forcing management to overpay for relievers, and a mountain of bad luck is why we had such a terrible season. 2) Our best prospect will almost certainly be a top 25 prospect according to other lists. Aside from that, these lists while fun, do little to actually show the value or predict the future success of individual prospects. But if you want to base you opinions on the state of the our Farm system on what one guy thinks, I would recommend going with someone who does not think that Kolbin Vitek is a significantly better prospect than Henry Owens or one that ranks Bryce Brentz and Jorge Soler similarly. You are right that we have underperformed other teams in the IFA market, but it is not like we doing nothing in that market. We may not be the Rangers, but we still sign highly talented youth from LA and Asia. I just think that we are less willing to place high stakes bets on the big prospects because there is no way accurately project 16 year olds. Going forward this will likely be a strength. 3) Where does this list rank Anthony Rizzo, Miles Head, and Casey Kelly.? If the A-Gon deal never happens we have 7 players (no Webster) in the top one hundred- which is odd because one would reasonably expect every team to have 3.3 prospects in the top 100. 4) Are you seriously pointing out the records of our Minor League affiliates? 5) I thought we were talking about the draft and our minor league system. Hey, I appreciate your reply and input. My main thrust is that not only is our current ML team "terrible" but that I do not see the likelihood of near-term upside either thru our system, the draft , international free agents or free-agency. My feeling is that we are in for a 3-4 year slide into mediocrity or worse. But that is OK (unless I am deceased or on a respirator.) We have won 2 World Series Championships!...something I never expected to see. The good part of failure is that it will cause us to re-examine protocol and make innovative changes. (Bill James is apparently already highlighted as being re-instated as a go-to guru). We do not have a talent-laden farm system IMO, despite recent additions thru trade. You can look to whatever 'expert' you want but I don't think that you will find our system ranked any more than midway among other teams. That is not confidence inducing or suggestive of future command performance. I know that it is currently not kosher to consider minor league team performances as any kind of indicator. But, to some extent, I disagree. To me minor league wins and losses do say something. Look, if we won 30% of our minor league games and the Yankees minor league system won 70%, all things being equal, would we feel that wins and losses mean nothing? Ws & Ls represent how a team is playing vs its competitors on the field. If we are not performing as well, it means that either we do not measure up talent-wise or development wise. And if Ws and Ls mean nothing, then why does Soxprospects report individual and team results/standings? You agree that we have not performed competitively on the international free agent market over the past 10 plus years. Is there hope here? Basis? Domestically we likely will not spend extravagantly for free agents, at least in the near term. (Good!). Thus improvement in this venue is also unlikely to a significant degree. In sum, I am concerned not only with the make-up and talent of our curent ML team but the 'prospects' for improvement in the next 3-4 years from any resource.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxprospects on Sept 9, 2012 3:22:26 GMT -5
I'm kind of surprised some of you do not think we have a top 10 farm? It would seem to me to be a borderline top 5 farm. We have zero "Mike Trout" type superstuds but we seem to have a lot of depth in guys who are potential starting level players in mlb. And several who could well be all stars. What happened? Where is the enthusiasm and what is wrong with 5 top 100 guys? Considering that depth is one of our strengths, having 5 top 100 guys is great!
|
|
|
Post by redsoxprospects on Sept 9, 2012 3:24:58 GMT -5
La Rosa probably would be rated higher than Webster if he were officially in the farm. We are positioned well IMO. He may not be looked at as a prospect any more but he is effectively still a farm guy to me.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxprospects on Sept 9, 2012 3:30:03 GMT -5
Mayo had Brentz as one of the top 2 college bats in the draft if I remember correctly. He has always been high on Brentz.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Sept 9, 2012 9:23:10 GMT -5
redsoxprospects I don't want to sound unduly pessimistic.
I don't know anything about Mayo except what is written here. Good or bad, in any case he is one guy. The fact that he gives us 5 in the top 100 is above expectations...so that part is very good. I am excited about Brentz, Bogaerts,Bradley, Barnes, Owens, Swihart, De la Kruz etc. on the farm...maybe some of the guys we got (will get) in trades will be a boost...and we have next year's draft to salivate about.
I am even more excited tho that we will have a lot of change going forward. It's broke...let's fix it. I think that this off-season will be a very active one on management's side. I expect it to aggressively address short-comings in international scouting and in other areas. It is a big ship of state tho. The re-vamping and its fruits are likely to take some time...like turning the Queen Mary.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 9, 2012 10:28:13 GMT -5
La Rosa probably would be rated higher than Webster if he were officially in the farm. We are positioned well IMO. He may not be looked at as a prospect any more but he is effectively still a farm guy to me. I really don't care that de la Rosa has technically lost his prospect status by exceeding the 50 inning cap for MLB rookie eligibility. Who cares if he's rookie eligible, he's a prospect in every functional way that matters to a baseball team (or a fan of a baseball team). He's a prospect in all but the most narrow, arbitrary sense imaginable. Something to consider when we're looking at these various top 100s, org rankings, etc.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 9, 2012 10:33:15 GMT -5
La Rosa probably would be rated higher than Webster if he were officially in the farm. We are positioned well IMO. He may not be looked at as a prospect any more but he is effectively still a farm guy to me. I really don't care that de la Rosa has technically lost his prospect status by exceeding the 50 inning cap for MLB rookie eligibility. Who cares if he's rookie eligible, he's a prospect in every functional way that matters to a baseball team (or a fan of a baseball team). He's a prospect in all but the most narrow, arbitrary sense imaginable. Something to consider when we're looking at these various top 100s, org rankings, etc. Fair point (and side note, we're considering this here at the site right now for when the trade is finally completed). However, remember that the Sox aren't the only team with players like that. Any cutoff you pick is going to be relatively arbitrary. For example, Texas is going to have a few guys "graduate" from their farm system this year, which means it's not going to be ranked as highly next year, but that doesn't mean they suddenly are terrible at developing players.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 9, 2012 10:38:53 GMT -5
redsoxprospects I don't want to sound unduly pessimistic. I don't know anything about Mayo except what is written here. Good or bad, in any case he is one guy. The fact that he gives us 5 in the top 100 is above expectations...so that part is very good. I am excited about Brentz, Bogaerts,Bradley, Barnes, Owens, Swihart, De la Kruz etc. on the farm...maybe some of the guys we got (will get) in trades will be a boost...and we have next year's draft to salivate about. I don't understand how you're excited about all those players but also somehow think the Red Sox have a mediocre system. I think the system is well above average and I'm actually not that excited about half the guys you list.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 9, 2012 10:54:06 GMT -5
Fair point (and side note, we're considering this here at the site right now for when the trade is finally completed). However, remember that the Sox aren't the only team with players like that. Any cutoff you pick is going to be relatively arbitrary. For example, Texas is going to have a few guys "graduate" from their farm system this year, which means it's not going to be ranked as highly next year, but that doesn't mean they suddenly are terrible at developing players. Right, I'm not trying to say that we should just automatically bump the Red Sox. But it's something to consider when looking at anybody rankings, because most of these rankings just use the standard cutoffs. One of the things I always liked about the KG org rankings was that he would include the "top 10 under 25" at the end. But at the same time it also bugged me because I felt like that list should have been the actual focus of the article. Why am I reading a full write-up on some three-star reliever prospect with 49 major league innings, when some guy who actually matters to the organization is just a name on a list because he has 51 innings pitched? And you're also right that any standard cutoff is going to be somewhat arbitrary-- which is why I respect any prospect-ranking-type-person-or-entity that's willing to break those rules at their discretion. Because if anyone is actually good enough at this stuff for their rankings to be worth reading in the first place, then they're also qualified to make those judgements.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Sept 9, 2012 11:21:52 GMT -5
redsoxprospects I don't want to sound unduly pessimistic. I don't know anything about Mayo except what is written here. Good or bad, in any case he is one guy. The fact that he gives us 5 in the top 100 is above expectations...so that part is very good. I am excited about Brentz, Bogaerts,Bradley, Barnes, Owens, Swihart, De la Kruz etc. on the farm...maybe some of the guys we got (will get) in trades will be a boost...and we have next year's draft to salivate about. I don't understand how you're excited about all those players but also somehow think the Red Sox have a mediocre system. I think the system is well above average and I'm actually not that excited about half the guys you list. Fenway, we probably have 150-200 players in our system. I noted 7 of the total. From memory, Baseball America rated our system at 19 last spring. That rating reflected then recent trades that diluted us. That is a fairly mediocre grade, no? Ratings are always in flux because some highly touted players decline or fail to advance as expected. Others rise from the morass and distinguish themselves. We have added players from trades that, at first blush, show some promise. I believe more trades will follow and continue to infuse talent. By next spring we could well be rated a top 5 or 10 system. The guys I like, based mostly on stats and Soxprospects write-ups but also some that I have been fortunate enough to see play, are generally well thought of by most people here, from what I have gathered. You probably have good reasons for your opinions, but what players noted don't you like and what ones not listed are you excited about?
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Sept 9, 2012 11:31:03 GMT -5
He has Xander #7 overall in the top SS's rankings. I might be biased, but he should be #3 behind Profar and Machado. Any chance the Sox move Boegarts to a corner outfield position next season?
|
|
|
Post by joshv02 on Sept 9, 2012 11:53:22 GMT -5
Fenway, we probably have 150-200 players in our system. I noted 7 of the total. From memory, Baseball America rated our system at 19 last spring. That rating reflected then recent trades that diluted us. That is a fairly mediocre grade, no? 9th, not 19th. Not mediocre then; less so now.
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Sept 9, 2012 11:54:10 GMT -5
Why would the Sox move Bogaerts to an outfield corner position? I think he will be the starting SS sometime in 2014 & remain there for 5+ years
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 9, 2012 12:29:21 GMT -5
Fenway, we probably have 150-200 players in our system. I noted 7 of the total. From memory, Baseball America rated our system at 19 last spring. That rating reflected then recent trades that diluted us. That is a fairly mediocre grade, no? It's mediocre; it's also completely meaningless. The Red Sox just had a very good year down on the farm AND brought in two legit starting prospects. The system now looks stronger than it has since Adrian Gonzalez was acquired. Ratings are always in flux because some highly touted players decline or fail to advance as expected. Others rise from the morass and distinguish themselves. We have added players from trades that, at first blush, show some promise. I believe more trades will follow and continue to infuse talent. By next spring we could well be rated a top 5 or 10 system.So why are you concerned about the Red Sox weak farm system? The guys I like, based mostly on stats and Soxprospects write-ups but also some that I have been fortunate enough to see play, are generally well thought of by most people here, from what I have gathered. You probably have good reasons for your opinions, but what players noted don't you like and what ones not listed are you excited about?This isn't really the place to debate prospect rankings. What I will say is that your list conspicuously lacks either of the pitchers the Red Sox just brought into the system. I'm not sure if or why you're discounting those guys, but they arguably became the two most interesting young arms in the organization the minute they were acquired.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 9, 2012 12:53:35 GMT -5
Why would the Sox move Bogaerts to an outfield corner position? I think he will be the starting SS sometime in 2014 & remain there for 5+ years Pretty much every prospect evaluator/scout that has seen Bogaerts play has projected him to move off short. It's not seen as much of a sure thing recently as it was even at the start of the year, but that's still the projection.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Sept 9, 2012 16:14:10 GMT -5
Fenway, we probably have 150-200 players in our system. I noted 7 of the total. From memory, Baseball America rated our system at 19 last spring. That rating reflected then recent trades that diluted us. That is a fairly mediocre grade, no? 9th, not 19th. Not mediocre then; less so now. Josh, my bad. The rating I saw was Keith Law's and it ranked the Sox at 18th earlier this year.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Sept 9, 2012 16:56:30 GMT -5
Fenway, we probably have 150-200 players in our system. I noted 7 of the total. From memory, Baseball America rated our system at 19 last spring. That rating reflected then recent trades that diluted us. That is a fairly mediocre grade, no? It's mediocre; it's also completely meaningless. The Red Sox just had a very good year down on the farm AND brought in two legit starting prospects. The system now looks stronger than it has since Adrian Gonzalez was acquired. Fenway, you and I could go round and round and never reach consensus. The horse has been badly beaten. I didn't think that we had "a very good year on the farm".... (you give no basis for saying so). To me, it was ok. I am not overly enthused about our draft..at this early date. To your ref. to the Gonzalez trade, it would truly be sad if we did not bring back some prospects....so yes, it appears that we have bolstered ourselves at this juncture. Great! Let's hope that process continues in the off-season. If the guys we got pan out and if we make a few more such trades then I think we could have a top rated system next year. ...and maybe a few top 30 rated prospects. If so, let's hope that any such ratings are not meaningless....because the system will likely be the main source for our resurrection.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 9, 2012 18:20:54 GMT -5
I didn't think that we had "a very good year on the farm".... (you give no basis for saying so). To me, it was ok. I am not overly enthused about our draft..at this early date. To your ref. to the Gonzalez trade, it would truly be sad if we did not bring back some prospects....so yes, it appears that we have bolstered ourselves at this juncture. Great! Let's hope that process continues in the off-season. Ok, here's my basis for saying so: • Breakout year for Barnes • Breakout year for Bradley • (another) Breakout year for Bogearts • Breakout year for Shaw • Very good season for Workman • Very good season for Brentz • Very good season for Grampa Cecchini • Very good season for de la Cruz • Bounceback season from Britton • Solid debut for Owens • Solid debut for Swihart • Acquisition of Webster • Acquisition of de la Rosa Versus the negatives: • Disaster season for Ranaudo • Mediocre season for Iglesias • Mediocre season for from Jacobs • Mediocre season for Pimentel • Bad season for Coyle • Bad season for Vitek This isn't totally comprehensive, but the conclusion is pretty obvious: It was a VERY good year from the system. Asking for more developmental success than this is just being greedy/unrealistic.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 9, 2012 18:24:27 GMT -5
If the guys we got pan out and if we make a few more such trades then I think we could have a top rated system next year. ...and maybe a few top 30 rated prospects. If so, let's hope that any such ratings are not meaningless....because the system will likely be the main source for our resurrection. Also, you keep making comments that seem to suggest you're not counting Webster/de la Rosa as strengths of the system until they succeed for us. But I assure you, neither of those guys fell out of another dimension in late august. There's a long track record on both of them, and that track record says that they're very good prospects who boost the status of the system right now.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxprospects on Sept 9, 2012 19:10:23 GMT -5
We have 5 guys in the top 100 and more prospect depth than we have had for a while and some of these guys sure look like studs to me. Some real solid pitching prospects which are so valuable in today's new CBA environment. Jacobs plays injured half the year and still does fairly well. Guys like Shaw surprise us and Bogaerts even improves his position after all the excitement last year. Swihart's numbers are not outstanding but his defense appears above projection and he improved steadily after a slow start. Cechinni is real solid and even shows some speed. I really like our situation on the farm. The bottom line is that we have quite a few guys now who might well become outstanding mlb level players. We haven't been able to say that for a while. Even guys like Coyle still have solid potential way down on the list. It's deeper than it has been for a long while IMO.
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Sept 9, 2012 20:17:31 GMT -5
Why would the Sox move Bogaerts to an outfield corner position? I think he will be the starting SS sometime in 2014 & remain there for 5+ years Pretty much every prospect evaluator/scout that has seen Bogaerts play has projected him to move off short. It's not seen as much of a sure thing recently as it was even at the start of the year, but that's still the projection. But isn't it a projection of when he approaches age 26 - 27? I think he should stay at SS until then.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 9, 2012 20:44:36 GMT -5
But isn't it a projection of when he approaches age 26 - 27? I think he should stay at SS until then. When you read about a player's "projection," that means when they reach the major leagues.
|
|
|