SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2013 Red Sox Post-Draft Discussion (Signings, etc.)
|
Post by soxfn24 on Jun 9, 2013 13:22:48 GMT -5
"Interesting to know if Bane caused this change in draft philosophy though." -- I don't know what this means. What change in draft philosophy? And who is Bane? Eddie Bane is a highly regarded scout most known for signing Mike Trout, and currently serves as a special assistant to the GM for the Sox. I would imagine he's serving in the same capacity as Allard Baird did before his promotion. Also an interesting tidbit I just learned from a quick google search: his brother Dan is the CEO of Trader Joe's.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Jun 9, 2013 14:24:36 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by mjammz on Jun 9, 2013 14:26:15 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by soxfan06 on Jun 9, 2013 14:26:39 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jun 9, 2013 14:29:19 GMT -5
Seems to validate the chatter by Law, Callis and Badler that, despite being "illegal," teams often work out the tenets of these deals before they draft guys.
Law also had an interesting comment in one of his chats earlier this week about starters who throw in the upper 90s before they are drafted balanced against so few in MLB who do as pros. His comment paraphrased was along the lines of "big difference between pitching once every 7 days vs. once every 5 days.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 9, 2013 14:36:25 GMT -5
Everyone in baseball thinks it will take at least $1.3 mil to sign Denney. No question about that. But is it wise when it blows most of the over slot money we have available? And it's likely to take more than $1.3 mil. That's at least $600,000 of the total overslot money we will potentially have. If that is the case we would maybe have a chance at one more decent overslot guy. I'd rather have a chance at 3-4 more decent overslot guys.
Why is the world would Ball turn down $3 mil? He's a skinny kid who is still largely unproven. If he turns it down we are protected with a pick next year. He is exactly the kind of guy we should try to save some cash on. Absolutely. His family is not rich. He wants to play pro ball badly. His family is risk averse. He is a poster boy for a guy who should sign for $3 mil. It would be ill advised for him to turn down $3 mil. And that's over $300,000 savings right there for the Redsox. Money we can absolutely use elsewhere. He is one heck of a nice kid, the only reason I'm even offering him $3 mil. No slight intended of course. He's a great prospect also.
To me, Lavarnway / Swihart / Vasquez is pretty decent catcher depth on the farm. We just paid Swihart $2.5 mil didn't we, as a 1st round pick, and he's been doing well but we are to assume Denney will immediately slot above him on the prospect chart? I don't get that. Swihart is a hell of a prospect.
Denney was on national TV expecting to be picked in the first 2 rounds but was passed on until the 3rd round and there must be a reason for that. There have been reports that his recent performances have dropped. Not one team was willing to give him 1st or 2nd round money. I agree that we will probably offer hi $1.3 mil to $1.5 mil but that will cost us at least 2-3 other prospect signings which might well be more cost effective.
Ideally we would like to sign all of them right? But I'd rather not blow all the overslot money we have potentially on one guy. When we can use that same money to great advantage elsewhere. This year it looks like we have that opportunity.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 9, 2013 14:43:43 GMT -5
Make no mistake. I want to sign Denney. I'm just saying if the money gets crazy we can let him go. We are even protected a little on the 3rd round pick aren't we. Not as much as on the top 2 picks but some. We should consider that is real leverage. Because it is.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 9, 2013 14:47:26 GMT -5
Just a reminder to posters to keep threads on topic, which in here would be about the draft rather than trading players. Thanks.
|
|
|
Post by sammo420 on Jun 9, 2013 14:56:51 GMT -5
Texas Rangers. Salty, Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden. That's why you can never have enough catching depth. Also if maximized properly what could they have gotten in a reasonable best case scenario with each of the three? That's why you sign Denney.
Sorry posted before I saw the above post.
|
|
|
Post by Legion of Bloom on Jun 9, 2013 15:04:23 GMT -5
I don't see any scenario in which Denney doesn't sign. They wouldn't risk losing the slot allotment for that pick, they already had to have an understanding of what it would take to get it done.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 9, 2013 15:33:45 GMT -5
sammo420, you're fine. Catching, etc. is related to the Denney discussion. There was some discussion on the prior page that had nothing to do with the draft.
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 9, 2013 15:38:41 GMT -5
It will be interesting how much they saved on the top 2 picks. I'm getting more and more excited we might sign Sheffield or another of the highly rated tough signs.
|
|
|
Post by Legion of Bloom on Jun 9, 2013 15:44:59 GMT -5
Theoretically, we could use the $671,200 allotted to the #81 pick plus the 5% overage on our bonus pool to sign Denney for $1,012,710. We then would still have the money saved by going under-slot with Ball, Stank and rounds 6-10 to sign a few guys.
|
|
|
Post by GyIantosca on Jun 9, 2013 15:56:29 GMT -5
I can't wait till Mike posts the wall of picks and all the different colors and how hard they are to sign and the money i will take. I t is usually spot on.
Another thing but to me it seem there was less video on the kids this year than last year. Less video and less pictures all together on the MLB site.
|
|
|
Post by mainesox on Jun 9, 2013 15:56:45 GMT -5
Make no mistake. I want to sign Denney. I'm just saying if the money gets crazy we can let him go. We are even protected a little on the 3rd round pick aren't we. Not as much as on the top 2 picks but some. We should consider that is real leverage. Because it is. They wouldn't have taken him so early on day two without a pretty good idea of what it will take to sign him, and without being fairly certain they could get it done. Also, Lavarnway's defense isn't anything to write home about, and if he doesn't start really hitting he's probably not a major leaguer; Swihart is way too low in the minors to count on being anything let alone sticking at catcher; and Vazquez may be a starter but it would probably be in-spite of his offense. It's also not a sure thing that Denney sticks at C, as reports on his defense have been mixed, so he may end up in the OF or at 1B. Even if we assume all three of them, plus Denney, work out and make it to the majors as starting catchers that just means you've got a lot of really good trade bait.
|
|
|
Post by GyIantosca on Jun 9, 2013 16:01:51 GMT -5
I just wonder if they drafted a lot of these tough signs for a reason. I read Bleacher Report and I know the site isn't all that but the guy who was writing it loved the Sox strategy whereas other teams were drafting cheap players in the late rounds the Sox took chances on some tough signs.
Maybe they can get a couple of these kids for a little cheaper than if the Royals drafted them in the 25th round? Not everybody is advised by Boras Corporation.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 9, 2013 16:12:15 GMT -5
It will be interesting how much they saved on the top 2 picks. I'm getting more and more excited we might sign Sheffield or another of the highly rated tough signs. Assuming the top 10 sign, guesstimating the following: 1. Trey Ball, $3M (slot $3.246M; Saves $246K) 2. Teddy Stankiewicz, $700K (slot $1,229,600; Saves $529,600, Cumulative under $775,600) 3. Jon Denney, $1.6M (slot $671,200; Goes over $928,800, Cumulative over $153,200) 4. Myles Smith, $420,000 (slot $454,800; Saves $34,800, Cumulative over $118,400) 5. Corey Littrell, $300,000 (slot $340,500; Saves $40,500, Cumulative over $77,900) 6. Jordon Austin, $100,000 (he's the wild card here, slot $254,900; Saves $154,900, Cumulative under $77,000) 7. Mike Adams, $25,000 (slot $191,100; Saves $166,100, cumulative under $243,000) 8. Forrestt Allday, $5,000 (slot $157,500; Saves $152,500, cumulative under $395,500) 9. Kyle Martin, $5,000 (slot $147,200; Saves $142,200, cumulative under $537,700) 10. Taylor Grover, $5,000 (slot $137,400; Saves $132,400, cumulative under $670,100) Add the 5% over the club will be willing to go: $670,100 * 1.05 = $703,605 as a very, very rough estimate of what the club can spend on bonuses above $100k outside of the top 10 Boldt - this isn't nearly enough. It's not happening. Sheffield - Based on what I've read, I don't think this would be enough, but who knows. I was also conservative in my estimates, so maybe you can squeeze another 10K out of the last three picks, or maybe squeeze another $50k out of Austin. This really depends on Sheffield's bonus demand, and I'd feel better about it if he weren't going to Vanderbilt. So if they're going to spread that money among some of the lesser tough signs, my thoughts on some of them: Asuaje - I could see him getting an extra hundred grand or two. Williams - I bet he signs for 100k. Speier - has a family history at UCSB. I'm not sure I"d want to go over $100k for him. Longhi - He'll need over slot. Depends how much If they go $500k, does he sign? Thaiss - I'd love to sign him. Good D HS catcher? Hell yes. Virginia commits can be tough (see Branden Kline, Reed Gragnani the first time, Brandon Downes) but not impossible (see Ryan Kalish, Peter Hissey). Morrison - Not happening. Has made it known he's going to school. www.heraldnet.com/article/20130608/SPORTS/130609834Burkamper - Same. Has said he has no intention of signing. So, gun to my head, I think Asuaje, Longhi, Thaiss would be a nice haul of the tough, probably overslot guys. If Sheffield is going to sign, remove two of them.
|
|
|
Post by taftreign on Jun 9, 2013 16:19:10 GMT -5
I thought the 5% was of the total draft pool, $6,830,200, and not 5% of the amount left after signing the first 10 round of players?
Can you confirm?
This would then be $670,100 + $341,510 = $1,011,610 available w those calculations.
|
|
|
Post by Legion of Bloom on Jun 9, 2013 16:23:45 GMT -5
If I'm not mistaken, 5% is of the total draft pool.
|
|
|
Post by mjammz on Jun 9, 2013 16:24:58 GMT -5
I thought the 5% was of the total draft pool, $6,830,200, and not 5% of the amount left after signing the first 10 round of players? Can you confirm? It is 5% over the total draft pool. Essentially the Red Sox have an extra $341,510 to use or disperse in any manner than want.
|
|
|
Post by wskeleton76 on Jun 9, 2013 16:26:52 GMT -5
I hope us to sign Speier and Longhi.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 9, 2013 16:29:46 GMT -5
Is Nick Zammarelli signable? He is from the area.
Also, I'm assuming Jeff Driskel will undergo the same conditions that Magee, Cooper, and Shaq experienced.
|
|
|
Post by taftreign on Jun 9, 2013 16:31:26 GMT -5
Am I correct that Chris calculated the 5% off of the remaining $ from signing the first 10 rounds of players? If so the question is how would it change his prediction on who the team would be able to sign?
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Jun 9, 2013 16:33:34 GMT -5
I thought the 5% was of the total draft pool, $6,830,200, and not 5% of the amount left after signing the first 10 round of players? Can you confirm? This would then be $670,100 + $341,510 = $1,011,610 available w those calculations. I am pretty sure you're correct.
|
|
|
Post by taftreign on Jun 9, 2013 16:34:46 GMT -5
Saw this at MLBTradeRumors.com.
•The Red Sox expect to sign their first rounder Trey Ball (7th overall) and their second-round choice Teddy Stankiewicz (45th overall) to bonuses less than the slot recommendation, multiple industy sources have told WEEI.com's Alex Speier. This would allow the Red Sox to make an aggressive above slot offer to third-round selection Jon Denney, who was viewed as a likely first-round pick. Speier notes the high school catcher was invited to the day one broadcast of the draft on MLB Network and earned the distinction of being the only invited player not taken in the first two rounds. Denney, who has a commitment to Arkansas, was the 81st overall selection, which carries a slot recommendation of $671,200 (per Baseball America).
|
|
|