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2013 Red Sox Post-Draft Discussion (Signings, etc.)
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Post by mjammz on Jun 9, 2013 16:44:32 GMT -5
I'll play the game
1. Trey Ball, $3M (slot $3.246M; Saves $246K) 2. Teddy Stankiewicz, $700K (slot $1,229,600; Saves $529,600, Cumulative under $775,600) 3. Jon Denney, $1.37M (slot $671,200; Goes over $700,000 Cumulative under $75,000) 4. Myles Smith, $400,000 (slot $454,800; Saves $54,800, Cumulative under $129,000) 5. Corey Littrell, $300,000 (slot $340,500; Saves $40,500, Cumulative under $170,030) 6. Jordon Austin, $100,000 (he's the wild card here, slot $254,900; Saves $154,900, Cumulative under $324,930) 7. Mike Adams, $20,000 (slot $191,100; Saves $171,100, cumulative under $496,030) 8. Forrestt Allday, $5,000 (slot $157,500; Saves $152,500, cumulative under $648,530) 9. Kyle Martin, $5,000 (slot $147,200; Saves $142,200, cumulative under $790,730) 10. Taylor Grover, $2,000 (slot $137,400; Saves $135,400, cumulative under $926,130)
Slot Money Saved = $926,130 + 5% Overage of $341,510 = Total Money Available $1,267,640
Sheffield - $750,000 Longhi - $400,000 Gabe Speier - $310,000 Thaiss? - $210,000
I agree that I think Jalen Williams, Carlos Asuaje and Joseph Monge will sign for 100k or just slightly above.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 9, 2013 16:51:51 GMT -5
Ah, it's 5% of the total draft pool, but that was just me being bad at math and not realizing it's not the same thing. Sorry about that. Let's try this again, shall we? Assuming the top 10 sign, guesstimating the following: 1. Trey Ball, $3M (slot $3.246M; Saves $246K) 2. Teddy Stankiewicz, $700K (slot $1,229,600; Saves $529,600, Cumulative under $775,600) 3. Jon Denney, $1.6M (slot $671,200; Goes over $928,800, Cumulative over $153,200) - I note that this could be as high as $1.8M though 4. Myles Smith, $420,000 (slot $454,800; Saves $34,800, Cumulative over $118,400) 5. Corey Littrell, $300,000 (slot $340,500; Saves $40,500, Cumulative over $77,900) 6. Jordon Austin, $100,000 (he's the wild card here, slot $254,900; Saves $154,900, Cumulative under $77,000) 7. Mike Adams, $25,000 (slot $191,100; Saves $166,100, cumulative under $243,000) 8. Forrestt Allday, $5,000 (slot $157,500; Saves $152,500, cumulative under $395,500) 9. Kyle Martin, $5,000 (slot $147,200; Saves $142,200, cumulative under $537,700) 10. Taylor Grover, $5,000 (slot $137,400; Saves $132,400, cumulative under $670,100) Add the 5% over the club will be willing to go: $670,100 +$341,510 = $1,011,610 Boldt - I think he'd still need more than that, even if he came down from the $2M. He only signs if the Sox don't sign Denney. And they will get one of the two, but not both. Sheffield - could happen, but he'd probably eat up a lot of that million. Asuaje - I could see him getting an extra hundred grand or two. Williams - I bet he signs for 100k. Speier - has a family history at UCSB. I'm not sure I'd want to go over $100k for him. Longhi - He'll need over slot. Depends how much. If they go $500k, does he sign? Thaiss - I'd love to sign him. Good D HS catcher? Hell yes. Virginia commits can be tough (see Branden Kline, Reed Gragnani the first time, Brandon Downes) but not impossible (see Ryan Kalish, Peter Hissey). Morrison - Not happening. Has made it known he's going to school. www.heraldnet.com/article/20130608/SPORTS/130609834Burkamper - Same. Has said he has no intention of signing. One scenario: Sheffield gets $800k ($700k counts), The other $300k used to sign one of Thaiss, Longhi, or Asuaje. Another: The million us used to sign all three of Thaiss, Longhi, and Asuaje. Maybe one more surprise or someone we're not counting on gets over slot.
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Post by kman22 on Jun 9, 2013 17:02:14 GMT -5
I feel pretty confident that they will sign Sheffield. How that impacts the rest of the post round 10 guys, I'm not sure, but I think they get him signed.
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Post by azblue on Jun 9, 2013 17:17:35 GMT -5
There should be one additional column in the analysis--the name of the advisor. There are some advisors who would fight strongly against a below-slot bonus and some have great influence. Sometimes a decision can come down to the agent...er advisor...protecting his reputation for always getting the best deal possible.
I have some doubt that Stankiewicz would sign for $700K. He turned down $600K (a $80K discount) from the Mets last year. Why would he take a $500K discount? Granted, the Mets drafted lower in the second round and it was the difference between $680K and $600K in 2012. I would expect he would take some discount but you have to consider his history of walking away from an $80K discount after being drafted in the same round.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 9, 2013 17:38:33 GMT -5
Hearing that Thaiss' commitment to UVA is strong. Maybe a pipe dream. Hearing great things about him though.
As for Stankiewicz. He turned down $600k because he wanted $680k, and the Mets didn't even try to negotiate with him at the deadline, so who knows if he would have come down even from that. He was projected to go in the same-ish area of the draft this year, so I can't see him suddenly wanting $500k more when he didn't get $500k better.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Jun 9, 2013 17:39:02 GMT -5
Here are my predictions:
1. Trey Ball, $3M (Slot $3.246M; Saves $246) 2. Teddy Stankiewicz, $700K (Slot $1,229,600; Saves $529,600 - Cumulative under $775,600) 3. Jon Denney, $1.3M (Slot $671,200; Goes over $628,800 - Cumulative under $146,800) 4. Myles Smith, $400K (Slot $454,800; Saves $54,800 - Cumulative under $201,600) 5. Corey Littrell, $300K (Slot $340,500; Saves $40,500 - Cumulative under $242,100) 6. Jordon Austin, $100K (Slot $254,900; Saves $154,900 - Cumulative under $397,000) 7. Mike Adams, $20K (Slot $191,100; Saves $171,100 - Cumulative under $568,100) 8. Forrestt Allday, $5K (Slot $157,500; Saves $152,500 - Cumulative under $720,600) 9. Kyle Martin, $5K (Slot $147,200; Saves $142,200 - Cumulative under $862,800) 10. Taylor Grover, $5K (Slot $137,400; Saves $132,400 - Cumulative under $995,200)
Add the 5% over the club will be willing to go: $995,200 + $341,510 = $1,336,710
Sign: Jordan Sheffield, $750K ($686,710 still available) Nick Longhi, $480K ($306,710 still available) Matt Thaiss, $300K ($106,710 still available) Carlos Asuaje, $156,710 ($50K still available) Gabe Speier, $150K (no more $ available to go over-slot)
Worth nothing that all the money over $100K to sign these picks is coming from our remaing budget.
Don't sign: Ryan Boldt, OF (HS) Trever Morrison, SS (HS) Derek Burkamper, RHP (HS)
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 9, 2013 17:43:11 GMT -5
Here are my "super wicked early speculative gut check predictions" for signing season.
TOP TEN ROUNDS - ALL SIGN 1 Trey Ball $3,246,000 2 Teddy Stankiewicz $700,000 3 Jon Denney $1,700,000 4 Myles Smith $400,000 5 Corey Littrell $300,000 6 Jordon Austin $25,000 7 Mike Adams $50,000 8 Forrestt Allday $1,000 9 Kyle Martin $1,000 10 Taylor Grover $1,000
AFTER 10TH ROUND, ABOVE SLOT 13 Jordan Sheffield $825,000 (only counts for $725K against pool)
AFTER 10TH ROUND, $100K OR LESS (does not count towards pool) 11 Carlos Asuaje 12 Jake Drehoff 14 Jake Romanski 15 Bryan Hudson 16 Jalen Williams 17 Joseph Monge 18 Joe Gunkel 19 Gabe Speier 21 Reed Gragnani 23 Jimmy Allen 24 Jantzen Witte 28 Nick Zammarelli 29 Jeff Driskel 34 Danny Bethea
Total Pool Number for this projection: $7,161,000 Red Sox Pool Limit +5%: $7,171,710
$7,171,710
DOES NOT SIGN 20 Derek Burkamper 22 Ryan Boldt 25 Derik Beauprez 26 Mauricio Dubon 27 Marc Nowaczewski 30 Nick Longhi 31 Ryan Rippee 32 Matt Thaiss 33 Andrew Rosa 35 Rafael Oliveras 36 Pat Goetze 37 Max Watt 38 Trevor Morrison 39 KJ Trader 40 Ryan Lidge
Notes: I don't think that anybody on the list is impossible, although some have said they don't plan to sign. The most difficult to sign will be Boldt. If all of the cards fall right in the best case scenario in the top ten rounds, it seems like there's a chance that the team could have somewhere slightly north of $1 million to play with. Boldt wanted over $2 million. So that's still probably not enough to sign him, but at least there's room for conversation. And that also means that Sheffield would not sign.
I have no idea if Sheffield would sign for $825K. But that's around the neighborhood for his skill set and taking his leverage into consideration. If he doesn't sign, I could see that money going to some combination of Longhi, Thaiss, and/or Morrison.
I don't see anybody else deserving a bonus significantly over $100K. Asuaje is a distinct possibility to go over $100K, but it doesn't seem like he has much leverage, and it's definitely possible he agreed to a number on Friday night before he was drafted on Saturday.
Again, it's super early and we haven't had a chance to ask around yet. NOTE: Now this kind of looks like I'm copying Hatfield in a way, but I'm sure he can attest to the fact that I shared an earlier draft of my thoughts with him yesterday. I modified this morning and was only able to post now.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 9, 2013 17:49:31 GMT -5
1. Trey Ball, $3M 2. Teddy Stankiewicz, $900K 3. Jon Denney, $1.6M 4. Myles Smith, $300K 5. Corey Littrell, $200K 6. Jordon Austin, $200K 7. Mike Adams, $20K 8. Forrestt Allday, $5K 9. Kyle Martin, $5K 10. Taylor Grover, $5K
Add the 5%: $936,710
Sign: Jordan Sheffield, $700K Nick Longhi, $300K Carlos Asuaje, $150K
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 9, 2013 18:15:17 GMT -5
If the 3rd pick is protected, and Denney is a high school kid who didn't get picked in round 1 or 2, I'm offering him 1.3 mil AT MOST and we still get his pick next year if he declines plus the money not used signing him overslot could be very useful with other overslot options. Correct me if I'm wrong but we seem to have a lot of leverage here. He may turn it down but if I were his Dad I'd say "let me help drive you to the bank son".
We should play to win. Offer under slot some to Stank and Ball and don't go crazy offering Denney tons of cash. We have leverage which each of those guys. We should remember that there is a real good chance we still get all of them, plus an opportunity for 2-3 more over slot guys if we play this right. If one or 2 turn it down we get protected picks in next year's strong draft year. We should maximize our utility for gain as they say in the field of economics.
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Post by mjammz on Jun 9, 2013 18:19:55 GMT -5
Just being a twitter stalker.. I just read some of Nick Longhi's tweets and he's quoted as saying "It's going to be a very tough decision to make" .. helps that he's a huge Red Sox fan.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 9, 2013 18:26:46 GMT -5
If the 3rd pick is protected, and Denney is a high school kid who didn't get picked in round 1 or 2, I'm offering him 1.3 mil AT MOST and we still get his pick next year if he declines plus the money not used signing him overslot could be very useful with other overslot options. Correct me if I'm wrong but we seem to have a lot of leverage here. He may turn it down but if I were his Dad I'd say "let me help drive you to the bank son". We should play to win. Offer under slot some to Stank and Ball and don't go crazy offering Denney tons of cash. We have leverage which each of those guys. We should remember that there is a real good chance we still get all of them, plus an opportunity for 2-3 more over slot guys if we play this right. If one or 2 turn it down we get protected picks in next year's strong draft year. We should maximize our utility for gain as they say in the field of economics. You can offer whatever you want but the player's gotta accept. I don't have any question in my mind that the front office will offer lower than slot on every single player. You only get so many opportunities to bring in A prospects. IMO, you don't screw around with that in order to target 3 C-level prospects.
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Post by ikonos on Jun 9, 2013 18:38:55 GMT -5
I think Denny was expected to go at the end of the first round. So if we start with Pick 25 which has a slot value of 1.8665M and ends with competitive balance 1st round pick 39 which has a slot value of 1.4334M, I would expect it will take a number between 1.4334M and 1.865M to get him to sign. The average is about 1.65M which is where Chris, Mike and one other poster predicted it will take Denny to sign. 1.3M number other posters are putting out is too low and falls in the 2nd round money. I highly doubt he will sign for 2nd round money.
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Post by ikonos on Jun 9, 2013 18:47:21 GMT -5
mike 825K is late 2nd round money. Do you see Sheffield a late second rounder? He was ranked 88 by BA and assuming that correlates with that pick, the slot value is only about 600K.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Jun 9, 2013 18:52:12 GMT -5
Reason I put him down for $1.3M was due to several reasons, mostly opinions (so I very well could be wrong): - Denney seems like the type that wants to start his professional career right away, not go to college.
- The experience he went through going to the draft and not being drafted in day 1.
- I doubt he'd turn down $1.3M to sign (because he was expecting $200K to 300K more).
- The fact that he was pretty excited about being drafted by Boston (he said on Twitter that he's been a Red Sox fan his whole life and that's he just got drafted by the best team in baseball and was proud to be a part of their organization; and currently, he's hosting a "Draft Party' at his hometown)
This doesn't seem like a guy who has any plans of not signing.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 9, 2013 18:52:59 GMT -5
mike 825K is late 2nd round money. Do you see Sheffield a late second rounder? He was ranked 88 by BA and assuming that correlates with that pick, the slot value is only about 600K. It isn't only about where they rank on BA though. Sheffield fell as far as he did in large part because it will take more than that to sign him. He has a lot of leverage as a Vandy commit.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 9, 2013 18:55:07 GMT -5
If the 3rd pick is protected, and Denney is a high school kid who didn't get picked in round 1 or 2, I'm offering him 1.3 mil AT MOST and we still get his pick next year if he declines plus the money not used signing him overslot could be very useful with other overslot options. Correct me if I'm wrong but we seem to have a lot of leverage here. He may turn it down but if I were his Dad I'd say "let me help drive you to the bank son". We should play to win. Offer under slot some to Stank and Ball and don't go crazy offering Denney tons of cash. We have leverage which each of those guys. We should remember that there is a real good chance we still get all of them, plus an opportunity for 2-3 more over slot guys if we play this right. If one or 2 turn it down we get protected picks in next year's strong draft year. We should maximize our utility for gain as they say in the field of economics. You can offer whatever you want but the player's gotta accept. I don't have any question in my mind that the front office will offer lower than slot on every single player. You only get so many opportunities to bring in A prospects. IMO, you don't screw around with that in order to target 3 C-level prospects.Very correct. In baseball 100 pennies is not equal to a crisp dollar bill. It's kind of like when we propose trades (like what we'd give up for Cliff Lee) in our head and try some semblance of fairness, where we're perfectly willing to give up two inferior players instead of the superior player we don't want to deal that would be realistically necessary to make a deal happen. The goods are the goods. And with that in mind, I do think the Sox will sign Denney, and as far as the lower picks, I do have a good gut feeling about Jordan Sheffield - I do think the Sox will get him signed. No way on Boldt, though.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jun 9, 2013 18:56:43 GMT -5
Jim Callis ?@jimcallisba 45m Just finished taping some #mlbdraft & #RedSox talk w/@mikefelger on @csnne (Comcast New England). Should air around 8 pm ET.
Someone take notes for people not in the area.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 9, 2013 19:18:23 GMT -5
Is Nick Zammarelli signable? He is from the area. Also, I'm assuming Jeff Driskel will undergo the same conditions that Magee, Cooper, and Shaq experienced. From the way he was posting on Twitter, it sure didn't seem like it. He seemed pissed he wasn't drafted higher.
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Post by superman on Jun 9, 2013 19:19:56 GMT -5
Jim Callis ?@jimcallisba 45m Just finished taping some #mlbdraft & #RedSox talk w/@mikefelger on @csnne (Comcast New England). Should air around 8 pm ET. Someone take notes for people not in the area. I think I caught the end of it. They were talking about Denney and how he had an over slot deal worked out with KC at pick 82 but we took him at 81. I'm not sure what else I missed. Curious how much his deal was for with KC.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 9, 2013 19:20:17 GMT -5
The players in drafted in the top 10 rounds do have leverage. If they don't sign that money is out of the bonus pool which will hurt you trying to sign other guys. The fact they popped Denney so early clearly suggests that he's the priority and they have an understanding of what it will take.
You can play hard ball all you want but ~600K is a big chunk of the pool and will have an effect on whether they can sign Sheffield or Boldt.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 9, 2013 19:29:40 GMT -5
The players in drafted in the top 10 rounds do have leverage. If they don't sign that money is out of the bonus pool which will hurt you trying to sign other guys. The fact they popped Denney so early clearly suggests that he's the priority and they have an understanding of what it will take. You can play hard ball all you want but ~600K is a big chunk of the pool and will have an effect on whether they can sign Sheffield or Boldt. You're right that we lose ~600k, but if he doesn't sign that actually helps our chances of signing Sheffield or Boldt. Let's say we offer Denney 1.3 mill and he doesn't take it. We lose the slot money, but we can put the remaining money we set aside for Denney (between 600 - 700k) towards the later round guys like Sheff and Boldt.
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Post by bjb406 on Jun 9, 2013 19:37:23 GMT -5
I don't know why you guys have mike Adams signing for so little. I would expect under slot, but he is not a senior and he is a decent player.
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Post by kman22 on Jun 9, 2013 19:40:06 GMT -5
My guess would be that he is a college reliever with not overpowering stuff.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Jun 9, 2013 19:43:00 GMT -5
The players in drafted in the top 10 rounds do have leverage. If they don't sign that money is out of the bonus pool which will hurt you trying to sign other guys. The fact they popped Denney so early clearly suggests that he's the priority and they have an understanding of what it will take. You can play hard ball all you want but ~600K is a big chunk of the pool and will have an effect on whether they can sign Sheffield or Boldt. You're right that we lose ~600k, but if he doesn't sign that actually helps our chances of signing Sheffield or Boldt. Let's say we offer Denney 1.3 mill and he doesn't take it. We lose the slot money, but we can put the remaining money we set aside for Denney (between 600 - 700k) towards the later round guys like Sheff and Boldt. Plus the pick is protected. Doesn't matter though, because Denney will sign.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 9, 2013 19:47:28 GMT -5
The players in drafted in the top 10 rounds do have leverage. If they don't sign that money is out of the bonus pool which will hurt you trying to sign other guys. The fact they popped Denney so early clearly suggests that he's the priority and they have an understanding of what it will take. You can play hard ball all you want but ~600K is a big chunk of the pool and will have an effect on whether they can sign Sheffield or Boldt. You're right that we lose ~600k, but if he doesn't sign that actually helps our chances of signing Sheffield or Boldt. Let's say we offer Denney 1.3 mill and he doesn't take it. We lose the slot money, but we can put the remaining money we set aside for Denney (between 600 - 700k) towards the later round guys like Sheff and Boldt. Ok but Boldt apparently wanted 2M so that would not be enough for him and as the math the guys did above shows they can come up with ~600K-700K to sign Sheffield even signing Denney. I'm gonna stay out of all this speculation at least until we start seeing some concrete numbers to see where this is headed.
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