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Trey Ball
Jun 18, 2013 8:27:08 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by bluechip on Jun 18, 2013 8:27:08 GMT -5
"The Red Sox were never in position to draft the best high school pitching prospect in the draft." I didn't know the Sox drafted Kohl Stewert! Awesome...Oh sorry, I meant Phil Bickford....Lol...I'm just messin with ya...My point being, I don't think Ball was the conses best HS in the draft... Anyway, I think I'm coming across as tha anti-Ball guy...And really I'm just like you guys, dreaming he's the next Cole Hammels or Kershaw, lol... My bad. I think Gammo must be dropping in on the board today. Check this tweet out. About 5p. Ha ha. "One great crosschecker :"Highest ceilings in draft were Clint Frazier(Ceve OF) and Trey Ball(Bos. LHP). Sox will introduce Ball tomorrow." twitter.com/pgammoOf course those two gave the highest ceilings, they are the two top prospects furthest from reaching their potential. A younger guy is often going to have the higher ceiling because you are less sure exactly how their development is going to proceed.
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Post by boomer on Jun 18, 2013 8:56:45 GMT -5
I do this think was a draft with pretty clear tiering and that the Red Sox got the misfortune of having to pick when the first two tiers of players had all been taken. Tier 1: Appel, Gray, Bryant Tier 2: Moran, Stewart, Frazier Tier 3: Ball, Meadows, D. Smith, Bickford, Shipley, etc. According to an article about Mike Trout in today's Washington Post, the Angels had him as their second best prospect in the 2009 draft after Strasburg but figured (correctly) that he might slide to them with pick # 25. The Sox never had a chance if he was higher on their draft board because they picked after that: mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2009/drafttracker.jspDraft tiers based on hype and misdirection are never correct in hindsight because, even picking at the end of the first round, in sandwich and second rounds, the Sox have found treasures like Clemens, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Buchholz, Bradley, Lester, etc. Hindsight is 20-20 so I am skeptical as to whether the Angels truly had Trout (aka Mickey Mantle) as the second best draft pick but they might have. Athletic cold weather state high upside H.S. players are risky but it's possible, since none of the picks in the top 3 tiers above appears to be a "can't miss" prospect, that Ball could be as good as anyone and Sox management's hyperbole about him "falling" to their pick might be true.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Jun 18, 2013 9:58:48 GMT -5
I'm also a long time reader and rare poster. I like the Ball pick. My top 6 were all gone when the Sox came up at 7 to draft. I thought after the top six guys were off the board I liked the lefty pitcher over Meadows. After the top six were drafted there was a drop off in talent. It's sad we had such a high pick in such a weak draft.
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Trey Ball
Jun 18, 2013 10:01:32 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by jmei on Jun 18, 2013 10:01:32 GMT -5
There is one thing I cannot get over about this pick. Based solely on chatter on this forums it seems Ball would be ranked lower than Owens, which is setting an alarm off in the back of my head which I can't control. Owens has been in the system for 1.5 years and seems to be following his projection; performing good, but not blowing us away. He was the 19th best pitching prospect in 2011 and 33rd overall (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-preview/2011/2611794.html). Ball this year was 9th overall 5th best pitcher (Shipley ranked higher www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/). I would just assume that Ball at the 7th pick should be a better prospect than Owens. There are factors that I am not considering but this makes me think we didn't get a true #7 pick. I know this logic is flawed and I hope it remains flawed. What makes you say that Ball is a worse prospect than Owens? Everything I've read has described Ball as "Owens with a better fastball." Owens might be a better prospect today because he's shown excellent performance at a higher level, including much-improved command, but I've not seen anyone say that the pre-draft version of Owens is better (or even as good) as Ball.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 18, 2013 11:12:56 GMT -5
I was very happy to see the Red Sox draft Trey Ball who has the talent and athleticism to be the next Clayton Kershaw. He was the top rated LHP in the draft. He is exactly the type of player I was hoping the Red Sox would draft with the 7th pick in the first round. Don't be afraid to aim a little higher with the comps. I personally see him as a Koufax who will actually pitch on Yom Kippur.
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Post by jt44 on Jun 18, 2013 11:31:50 GMT -5
I was very happy to see the Red Sox draft Trey Ball who has the talent and athleticism to be the next Clayton Kershaw. He was the top rated LHP in the draft. He is exactly the type of player I was hoping the Red Sox would draft with the 7th pick in the first round. Don't be afraid to aim a little higher with the comps. I personally see him as a Koufax who will actually pitch on Yom Kippur. Just like Youk and Gabe Kapler... I assume that in the absence of board chatter, there has been no word on Trey Ball signing today?
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 18, 2013 11:49:34 GMT -5
There is one thing I cannot get over about this pick. Based solely on chatter on this forums it seems Ball would be ranked lower than Owens, which is setting an alarm off in the back of my head which I can't control. Owens has been in the system for 1.5 years and seems to be following his projection; performing good, but not blowing us away. He was the 19th best pitching prospect in 2011 and 33rd overall (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-preview/2011/2611794.html). Ball this year was 9th overall 5th best pitcher (Shipley ranked higher www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/). I would just assume that Ball at the 7th pick should be a better prospect than Owens. There are factors that I am not considering but this makes me think we didn't get a true #7 pick. I know this logic is flawed and I hope it remains flawed. From what I can tell here on this site we have a "show me" attitude towards prospects. Owens has shown us what we wanted him too so he goes up the rankings, Ball hasn't done anything right or wrong yet. The rankings are a combination of ceiling and proximity to it and without doing anything yet either way that proximity is very very far away.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 18, 2013 15:22:04 GMT -5
What's a 'true' #7 pick? Is Tom Brady a 'true' 6th rounder? I think Owens has far out-performed expectations. To suggest there is a difference between #7 and #15, or Shipley vs. Ball vs. Stewart, is to say you know how their careers will turn out. If Stewart blows out his arm and Ball becomes a solid #3, who would you rather have?
The Red Sox chose Ball for many reasons, including ceiling, cost, and injury risk, I'm sure. In four years I'll have an opinion, but to say with any certainty that Ball is the 5th best pitcher in the draft seems a little bit of stretch.
As for Owens... I'll always take the guy who has shown it in pro ball vs. the guy who has potential to. I would guess that the 'bust' rate is highest for guys when they are drafted, and decreases signficantly with each level attained. If you had to bet today who was going to pitch 1,000 MLB innnings, Ranaudo (maybe a bad example because of the injury hx) or Kohl Stewart, who is the pick?
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 18, 2013 15:38:37 GMT -5
I think Owens has far out-performed expectations. No he hasn't. Out-performing expectations means we never expected much from him and that's not true. A lot of people had/have high hopes for him but we knew it could take a while to see results if at all. Its not like he was some late round pick we threw a couple hundred thousand at and hoped we hit the lottery. Ball is more or less the same way. We have high hopes for him but understand (I think) that it could be a while and there could be growing pains.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 18, 2013 16:17:16 GMT -5
Well maybe my expectations were lower than yours.
I didn't expect Owens to lead the minors in K rate last year, his first real season in pro ball. I didn't expect him to flash as a possible top 2 SP when he struck out 13/15 batters in a Spring game (even against other low-minors players). I seem to remember a #3 SP consensus ceiling in 2011, and now we're talking about him a little better. It's not shocking to have a 1S drafted pitcher do well, but I do think he's done even better than I'd expect, based on the average of pitchers taken at that round and given that bonus.
I'd love to see where you predicted he'd have 11+ K/9 back in 2011.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 18, 2013 16:26:54 GMT -5
Owens was the 7th LHP taken in 2011. You really think he's still about the 7th best LHP and the 20th best overall from that class? I'd say he's outperformed that.
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Post by hammerhead on Jun 18, 2013 16:29:22 GMT -5
What's a 'true' #7 pick? Is Tom Brady a 'true' 6th rounder? I think Owens has far out-performed expectations. To suggest there is a difference between #7 and #15, or Shipley vs. Ball vs. Stewart, is to say you know how their careers will turn out. If Stewart blows out his arm and Ball becomes a solid #3, who would you rather have? The Red Sox chose Ball for many reasons, including ceiling, cost, and injury risk, I'm sure. In four years I'll have an opinion, but to say with any certainty that Ball is the 5th best pitcher in the draft seems a little bit of stretch. As for Owens... I'll always take the guy who has shown it in pro ball vs. the guy who has potential to. I would guess that the 'bust' rate is highest for guys when they are drafted, and decreases signficantly with each level attained. If you had to bet today who was going to pitch 1,000 MLB innnings, Ranaudo (maybe a bad example because of the injury hx) or Kohl Stewart, who is the pick? Yeah, but after last year when they went super-safe , high floor picks, people almost unanimously wanted a high ceiling pick. Everyone wanted someone they could dream on. That is why most people were so down on Moran, Shipley and Pederson. Now we got exactly that and there's complaints that he's too raw. I think that is a little silly. You can't please everyone. I don't see the difference in risk between Frazier and Ball honestly. We got a guy who could be a #1, but also could stall in AA. I like that better for this high of a pick then a guy wh is a safe bet to be a #5 or long-man out of the pen.
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 18, 2013 16:43:41 GMT -5
Well maybe my expectations were lower than yours. I didn't expect Owens to lead the minors in K rate last year, his first real season in pro ball. I didn't expect him to flash as a possible top 2 SP when he struck out 13/15 batters in a Spring game (even against other low-minors players). I seem to remember a #3 SP consensus ceiling in 2011, and now we're talking about him a little better. It's not shocking to have a 1S drafted pitcher do well, but I do think he's done even better than I'd expect, based on the average of pitchers taken at that round and given that bonus. I'd love to see where you predicted he'd have 11+ K/9 back in 2011. There are other things he's struggled with like his endurance. for example. Remember the wheels coming off the wagon pretty consistently in the fourth? As I recall some thought there was a very small chance of him becoming a number one. Notice I said "some" and "very small chance" there? Also you really can't compare this pitcher to that one based solely on where they were drafted. I don't think two pitchers are ever alike. I definitely didn't see him becoming the second coming of Christ with a glove on but I had reserved high hopes for him after the draft. So far he's rewarded me and I'm starting to expect it from him more now whereas I wasn't initially.
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Post by welovewally on Jun 18, 2013 20:41:29 GMT -5
I was hoping that the Red Sox would draft a big middle of the order bat that wasn't to far from being Major League ready with the #7 pick but you can't draft what isn't available so I'm OK with the Ball pick. Didn't seem to me that there was any great talent to choose that they passed on.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 18, 2013 21:47:21 GMT -5
So essentially, half the board feels like the Sox drafted Felix Doubrount while the other half feel like they drafted Randy Johnson. I really don't care how "weak" the draft was, they still landed an 18 year old who tops out at 95-96 with good control and low mileage on his arm. Not to mention he presently has the potential of three plus pitches, never mind offerings he may learn or any of them becoming ++. The Red Sox never get to draft this high and so I want them to swing for the fences with the pick and take they guy with the highest upside that's available. If this was Minnesota I would be content with them taking a "safer" college kid.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Jun 19, 2013 0:22:55 GMT -5
So, Ball didn't get introduced today?
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 19, 2013 3:53:01 GMT -5
So, Ball didn't get introduced today? Hopefully they found a hangnail during his physical allowing them to lower the asking price another million.
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Post by piker8 on Jun 19, 2013 8:30:37 GMT -5
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Post by okin15 on Jun 19, 2013 9:07:40 GMT -5
Did we know Lester had a cutter in High School? I thought he played with that only starting at AAA.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 19, 2013 11:13:07 GMT -5
Did we know Lester had a cutter in High School? I thought he played with that only starting at AAA. You're thinking of Papelbon's splitter. Lester's cutter was his calling card as a minor leaguer. He even had to shelve it to work on his other stuff for a while, a la Workman.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Jun 19, 2013 14:37:40 GMT -5
It's on Facebook, with no mention of $ "Red Sox today signed first-round draft pick Trey Ball, an 18-year old left-handed pitcher from New Castle, Indiana. Ball, the seventh player selected in the draft, was one of 11 signings announced today by Director of Amateur Scouting Amiel Sawdaye. He will practice with the Red Sox today at Fenway Park and report to the Gulf Coast League Red Sox in Fort Myers, Florida next week."
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 8:39:26 GMT -5
The thing that I like best about Ball is that he already throws a good changeup. According to the interview with him during the radio broadcast, he's been throwing it since he was 10 years old.
The changeup is my favorite pitch. It seems like major leaguers have a lot of trouble with it, especially if it's moving downward. I maybe wrong, but it also seems that pitchers who throw a good one, are able to get a lot of groundballs. If he already throws a good one, then he's likely a less risky bet than a normal high schooler all else equal.
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Post by okin15 on Jun 20, 2013 8:42:23 GMT -5
Did we know Lester had a cutter in High School? I thought he played with that only starting at AAA. You're thinking of Papelbon's splitter. Lester's cutter was his calling card as a minor leaguer. He even had to shelve it to work on his other stuff for a while, a la Workman. That must be what I remember; that he didn't use it for a while. I assumed they were protecting his arm, but I guess they were getting him to work on other pitches? Makes sense.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 20, 2013 9:51:31 GMT -5
The changeup is my favorite pitch. It seems like major leaguers have a lot of trouble with it, especially if it's moving downward. I maybe wrong, but it also seems that pitchers who throw a good one, are able to get a lot of groundballs. If he already throws a good one, then he's likely a less risky bet than a normal high schooler all else equal. This was the reason I liked Shippley over Ball. Ship only had 1 year of pitching and he had a good fastball/changeup. I made the comparison to a better version of Allen Webster, not much mileage on the arm, good velocity, good changeup. But my opinion immediately changed when they picked Ball. Everything I know about these players I read form someone else, but the Sox have quite the infrastructure researching these guys. (I still think Shipley was a steal at 15) Does anybody know how fast Gray/Appel were throwing their Senior year of high school? I doubt Gray was scratching the hundo mark. When do we get to see where the editors rank the 2013 draft class?
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 20, 2013 10:09:44 GMT -5
The thing that I like best about Ball is that he already throws a good changeup. According to the interview with him during the radio broadcast, he's been throwing it since he was 10 years old. The changeup is my favorite pitch. It seems like major leaguers have a lot of trouble with it, especially if it's moving downward. I maybe wrong, but it also seems that pitchers who throw a good one, are able to get a lot of groundballs. If he already throws a good one, then he's likely a less risky bet than a normal high schooler all else equal. Wow do I agree with that! Living in the St Pete/Sarasota area, I get all of the Rays' games. When you watch Shields, Hellickson, Cobb, and others consistently "screw" up batter's timing with their use of a good change-up, it shows how effective that pitch is. Their organization focuses on having their pitchers master that pitch and the results are amazing. Shields could, at times, get up to 93, but his dominance is due to his ability to throw his secondary stuff at any count for a strike. Hellickson and Cobb throw their 4-seamers at 90 to 91 with great command, but their change-ups make them look even faster. Even Matt Moore has a good one! One of the Rays' TV announcers is Brian Anderson an ex-major league pitcher. His commentary is excellent. His insight into a pitcher's mindset is really interesting. He has said, more than once, that a starter who can command their fastball on the "black" and throw a good change-up with the same arm speed can always be successful. I'm sure our organization stresses the change-up also, but I hope they are constantly watching organizations like the Rays and the Braves to see HOW they do it!
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