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Red Sox Acquire Matt Thornton for Brandon Jacobs
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Post by artfuldodger on Jul 13, 2013 5:06:53 GMT -5
Juan Nieves probably has a greater understanding of what he can do than most. Plus, the trade removes no significant trading chips to make a larger trade. All in all another intelligent move in a great year for front office.
The only part I do not understand was why get cash back rather than the international slot.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 13, 2013 5:24:34 GMT -5
Not in love with this trade; I don't hate it by any means, but I don't particularly like it either. Thornton is pretty much the definition of replacement level at this point, and as pointed out by jmei he's been in steady decline for four straight years. If they use him as a strict LOOGY I guess I don't mind it, but I'm worried that Farrell thinks he can use Thornton like another Breslow. Don't think it will take Farrell long to find out he's not got another Breslow in Thornton, but he does have someone still tough on lefties and this was one of the few close to deadline deals I feel they didn't over pay for to fill a need. His option for next year is monstrous, but for the rest of his year, it allows them to use Breslow the way Farrell has been prior and Thornton against LH threats alone, or until Morales gets back at least.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jul 13, 2013 6:55:17 GMT -5
Sox are trading away the relatively small chance Jacobs turns into something for Thornton and relieving themselves of the opportunity cost of Jacobs's 40-man slot next year (or, alternately, the chance he gets picked up in the Rule 5 draft). Thornton doesn't have to be more than a 6th-7th inning LOOGY to make that trade worth it. It's always a risk with relievers, especially ones on the downslope (Eric Gagne!), but they don't need Thornton to be much.
I think the Sox have a really great understanding of the value of average players over replacement-level players. That may be the Cherington regime's defining characteristic at this point to me.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 13, 2013 10:02:01 GMT -5
Well, I don't think the Red Sox gave up anything in Jacobs. On the other hand I'm not sure they really got anything in Thornton. So.... whatever.
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Post by joshv02 on Jul 13, 2013 10:20:24 GMT -5
Jmei: why are you using fip or xfip for a reliever, with <30 ip at that.
Of course he is significantly likely to be better than Beato. Or Rowland-Smith.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 13, 2013 10:25:25 GMT -5
Juan Nieves probably has a greater understanding of what he can do than most. Plus, the trade removes no significant trading chips to make a larger trade. All in all another intelligent move in a great year for front office. The only part I do not understand was why get cash back rather than the international slot. We say small chip, but to the CWS he was a fairly big chip. We have our lists as do the so called "experts" but the real experts and teams have their own and Jacobs was possibly a top 10 prospect to them. These guys have varying values throughout the league. Overall I agree Jacobs wasn't a big chip, but he's a nice prospect to have. I don't believe 40 man had much of anything to do with this trade. No way he would've stuck on a roster and if he did his career would've been ruined a la Willie Mo Pena. The cash back can't just be swapped for international money. Two different things. If anyone were to send Int Nat money in a deal like this it'd be the Sox. Cash and international money are apples and oranges are apples. Actually they are less that and more fruits and red meat.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 13, 2013 10:39:09 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Jul 13, 2013 11:02:32 GMT -5
Jmei: why are you using fip or xfip for a reliever, with <30 ip at that. Of course he is significantly likely to be better than Beato. Or Rowland-Smith. In small sample sizes, advanced stats are way more likely to be predictive than ERA. Strikeout, walk, and groundball rates stabilize (i.e., become predictive) very quickly, while ERA or batting-average against are very vulnerable to mostly-random fluctuations in BABIP or strand rate or home run/fly ball rate. And yeah, he's probably better than Beato or Rowland-Smith, but by a lot less than you'd think.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jul 13, 2013 11:29:50 GMT -5
I'm having a hard time having an opinion on this trade. He had no chance to get on the 40 man roster (neither is KDLC, IMO), though I dont see him getting drafted R5D, either.
It's a fair price to pay for both teams... there's a small chance Jacobs comes back to haunt them (I like his future a little bit better than KDLC), but the scouting reports weren't glowing, and he wasn't going have the chance for those growing pains in Boston.
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Post by jmei on Jul 13, 2013 14:10:37 GMT -5
Farrell and Nieves are at least on record mentioning that they see Thornton as a 6th/7th inning guy, mainly to be used for situational lefty matchups. That assuages some of my fears that the front office might have thought he was a setup man based on his fast success in that role.
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Post by joshv02 on Jul 13, 2013 14:35:41 GMT -5
Jmei: why are you using fip or xfip for a reliever, with <30 ip at that. Of course he is significantly likely to be better than Beato. Or Rowland-Smith. In small sample sizes, advanced stats are way more likely to be predictive than ERA. Strikeout, walk, and groundball rates stabilize (i.e., become predictive) very quickly, while ERA or batting-average against are very vulnerable to mostly-random fluctuations in BABIP or strand rate or home run/fly ball rate. And yeah, he's probably better than Beato or Rowland-Smith, but by a lot less than you'd think. I don't know what you think I think, but RS has been out of the majors for two years, and has a career 5 fip. Nearly all of his positive projection is regression to a mean he likely is below. Fip is not predictive in 27 innings for a relief pitcher. Period. Rps likely demonstrate some control over bip, and we have enough data to simply run a normal projection. I've seen the studies of how quickly things normalize. I think they are likely nonesense when applied prospectively rather than retrospectively.
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Post by godot on Jul 13, 2013 14:44:16 GMT -5
Well, the Sox traded Jacobs when his value increased due to his recent streak. Now the question, for me anywhoo, is whether his recent surge is just one of those rhythm things or the result of his wrist finally healing. Sadly, there is no calendar for when a wrist should heal. Wasn't Ortiz's last slump related to a wrist injury that took time to heal. It was also reported that Jacobs seemed disinterested during spring training this year, but such physiological impressions and judgments can be meaningless and very iffy. Regardless, he was a k machine , his defense was reported to be meh, and he was perhaps few years away from reaching whatever potential he may have. The Sox were in a bind, and the White Sox are in a position to get rid of a Thornton and take a risk on someone with potential like Jacobs. Life is a gamble anyywhoo.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2013 15:01:57 GMT -5
I'll be honest, I don't think Rule 5 had much to do with this. There's no way Jacobs was ready to stick on a Major League roster. He wasn't going to get protected, most likely, unless they sent him to Arizona and he went crazy out there or something.
That he'll be eligible may have made it a bit easier to part with him than if he were a year away, but this isn't like the Fife-FedEx-Chiang Rule 5 pu pu platter in the Bedard deal.
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Post by jmei on Jul 13, 2013 15:11:38 GMT -5
And yeah, he's probably better than Beato or Rowland-Smith, but by a lot less than you'd think. I don't know what you think I think, but RS has been out of the majors for two years, and has a career 5 fip. Nearly all of his positive projection is regression to a mean he likely is below. My comment was merely meant to convey that this isn't the Matt Thornton of 2008-10. The 2013 version of Thornton is decent against lefties, but overall, he's likely a league-average or worse reliever going forward. But yes, you're right that RRS has little history of success and his shiny ERA in AAA this season is built off unsustainably low BABIP and HR marks. Some pitchers can consistently outperform their DIPS stats-- Mariano Rivera, for instance. But Thornton has shown little ability to do so consistently (career 3.53 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 3.49 xFIP; he's also underperformed his FIP in his last three seasons), and there's little reason to think he'll start now. His .266 BABIP is well below his personal (.296) and league-average, which is why I think his FIP/xFIP are more predictive than his 2013 ERA going forward.
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Post by controne on Jul 13, 2013 18:13:24 GMT -5
So who gets DFA'd? Beato?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2013 18:15:36 GMT -5
So who gets DFA'd? Beato? Nobody. Miller to 60-day DL. Beat writers speculating that Wright will be optioned to make room on the active roster.
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Post by godot on Jul 13, 2013 18:30:58 GMT -5
Abraham tweets that Wright was optioned. Interesting, Lepler in his Salem notes says that Jacobs at times seemed disinterested and did not play with urgency, whatever that means. Sometimes one can misinterprest a person's personality and read into things. He may not just be a rah rah kind of kid. Oh well, best of luck with the White Sox
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jul 13, 2013 18:55:21 GMT -5
The 2013 version of Thornton is decent against lefties, but overall, he's likely a league-average or worse reliever going forward. But yes, you're right that RRS has little history of success and his shiny ERA in AAA this season is built off unsustainably low BABIP and HR marks. You say that like it's a bad thing. What are the chances of Brandon Jacobs turning in league-average production over the last 3 months of a push to a playoff berth? I mentioned this above, but the Sox focus on the bottom half of the roster is noteworthy. They're very aware of the downside of replacement-level production, and they seem to have a firm belief that the difference between that and league-average is sometimes the difference between success and failure. We all tend to focus on acquiring the outliers on the positive side of the scale while it seems that Ben and Co. are at least equally as focused on avoiding the outliers on the negative side of the scale.
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Post by templeusox on Jul 13, 2013 19:03:39 GMT -5
I'm going to just pray that Gammons isn't referring to savings from the Draft signing deadline. I don't think he is, but I just don't know. Right? Right? Talk me off a ledge here.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jul 13, 2013 19:05:37 GMT -5
I think he means not spending this past offseason allowed them to have money for the trade deadline.
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Post by mainesox on Jul 13, 2013 19:19:20 GMT -5
I'm going to just pray that Gammons isn't referring to savings from the Draft signing deadline. I don't think he is, but I just don't know. Right? Right? Talk me off a ledge here. I'm with chavopepe, I think he's referring to them not spending right up to the cap in the offseason; there was some talk at the time of them saving some room to have flexibility at the deadline.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 13, 2013 20:46:50 GMT -5
Abraham tweets that Wright was optioned. Interesting, Lepler in his Salem notes says that Jacobs at times seemed disinterested and did not play with urgency, whatever that means. Sometimes one can misinterprest a person's personality and read into things. He may not just be a rah rah kind of kid. Oh well, best of luck with the White Sox Mellen noticed this when he was in Salem and said it on the podcast when we recapped his trip. #shamelessplug
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Post by jmei on Jul 13, 2013 21:29:30 GMT -5
The 2013 version of Thornton is decent against lefties, but overall, he's likely a league-average or worse reliever going forward. But yes, you're right that RRS has little history of success and his shiny ERA in AAA this season is built off unsustainably low BABIP and HR marks. You say that like it's a bad thing. What are the chances of Brandon Jacobs turning in league-average production over the last 3 months of a push to a playoff berth? I mentioned this above, but the Sox focus on the bottom half of the roster is noteworthy. They're very aware of the downside of replacement-level production, and they seem to have a firm belief that the difference between that and league-average is sometimes the difference between success and failure. We all tend to focus on acquiring the outliers on the positive side of the scale while it seems that Ben and Co. are at least equally as focused on avoiding the outliers on the negative side of the scale. That's a good point. But I think there's a risk that Thornton is actually well below-average and the Red Sox could have gotten comparable performance from, say, Drake Britton. I also think acquiring Thornton might rule out the Red Sox getting involved in talks for a better reliever that they could have gotten for not much more of a prospect cost. Say, Oliver Perez for Almanzar or something to that effect.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 13, 2013 23:26:45 GMT -5
Jmei,
Thinking Almanzar has gotten his trade value as high as it will ever get and De La Cruz is falling after his last season high, both may be moved this deadline in deals before being exposed and are being saved for the next couple of weeks before the end of the trading period for the final pieces the team deems it needs for the push.
Agree that Britton could have possibly been a help out of the BP this season. He has had some trouble in the past with bouts of wildness (not recently, granted) and not sure using him in relief would be best for his major league 1st appearances.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,983
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Post by jimoh on Jul 14, 2013 7:05:32 GMT -5
www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20130713-thornton-s-stuff-has-improved-since-june-1.eceTim Britton of ProJo suggests that Thornton has been much better after June 1 than before, both in velocity and in results: "...After ...May 31... Thornton had thrown 16 innings on the season, allowing seven earned runs on 15 hits. He had walked as many batters as he had struck out -- seven. ... Since the start of June, Thornton has thrown 12 innings, allowing five earned runs on 10 hits. ... struck out 14 and walked only three. .. Thornton's velocity has also ticked up in his last several outings. Since the final week of June, he's been flirting with 97 more consistently and sitting at 96 [after sitting 93-95 and touching 96 earlier]. ..." Also says the improvement came after he changed his prep routine, and that a lot of the improvement is vs RHH.
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