The Sox at the Break: Why Are They Contenders?

I didn't think they would contend. Some reasons I think they are.

Better starting pitching than I thought they'd get. Lackey most of all.

Big Papi not just having a Papi year but one of his best years in his late 30's.

Much better defense than last year. Jacoby back in center, Victorino better than I thought he could be in right (hope he can play enough in the second half). And amazing D up the middle. Drew, Dustin and Iggy have really flashed the leather.

Nava became a solid every day player.

Toronto is no were near as good as I thought they'd be.

I would add the fact that the team has returned to the days of grinding out at bats and working counts consistently and top to bottom. The Sox lead the majors on OBP.

Individually in addition to the players you have mentioned I highlight Mike Carp, Iglesias & Salty.

"For me the biggest reason we are on top of the standings is the amazing depth Ben Cherington has assembled on our bench and in AAA"

Along with tremendous rotational depth and BP, or until Miller went down.

The flow of Iglesias, JBJ, Lavarnway, Holt, Snyder, Webster,and even Wright to come up and produce at key points to allow victories has been amazing.

The relentless sort of offense the Sox have constructed from spare parts, journeymen, and emerging talent, to go along with the core of Ellsbury, Pedroia, and of course Ortiz, was what a few of us suggested might get them above .500. Honestly, though, I thought that they'd end up somewhere between 83 and 87 wins. I settled on 85 as a nice round number, the mundane average of that range. In retrospect the unreal amount of horrible luck the team suffered through over the last season+ had to regress at some point. I guess this is it. Don't know that they can continue on this trajectory for the remainder of the season, but they'd have to crater badly, going 25-40, to merely fall back to my original projection. So it's looking good.

And yes, a few of us did see Nava as capable of exactly what he's doing: stellar OBP, and a bit of pop to go with it. I never expected this sort of return from Iglesias I'll admit, but given the horrible regression for Middlebrooks that's little more than a wash - except for the defense which is just transcendent. The others - Gomes, Drew, Victorino - have been right where a lot of us thought they might be, with Napoli however below expectations, but Carp far above.

At least for the first month or so, both Lester and Buchholz looked like the aces that a few of us, again, thought they could be. I for one suggested that Lackey's rehab, what with the 95-96 mph fastball that was being reported, was a harbinger of what might be a very good season. The guy has always known how to pitch. What he was pitching with was the real problem. With that taken care of thanks to TJ, there was all the hope in the world he'd shine again and so he is. The guy has always known what he's doing on the mound, and he's picked up the slack even as Lester has hit the bumps in the road.

The team made some very judicious moves. Tazawa no more belongs in the minors than I belong in the majors. And Uehara is some sort of magician, but the evidence was already there in his previous seasons with Baltimore and Texas as he conjured up ridiculous K/BB rates, with strikeout totals that have only gotten more stratospheric. A great, great pickup. The team has been so fortunate with its Japanese relievers over the years, you'd think the FO would all be wearing kimonos.

Hanrahan was a mistake - the team is allowed one or two - but Holt almost makes up for that one. Breslow, Miller before he was hurt, and even Bailey if he can get it back together, are a nice mix from the bullpen. I largely ignore the team relief numbers, as those are subject to tremendous bias from a handful of games that get completely out of hand. In the Sox' case, Hanrahan was hurt though he didn't want to acknowledge it apparently, and Bailey is still coming back from his surgery. That, along with performances such as Workman's the other evening as he got his feet wet, make the numbers look crazy. Anyone who's watched the team, though, knows that the opposition probably hate to see Breslow, let alone Tazawa and Uehara, warming up.

The real benefit from having a plan and sticking to it comes now. No panic, no giving up future value for nominal present returns. They can pick and choose who they want to move, while keeping the real assets stashed away on the farm. I liked Jacobs and I think he has a decent chance of becoming a regular in the majors. But he was expendable given the options in front of him. Picking up players such as Thornton, who's had a very good career, for second-tier talent means you're in the drivers seat. Let's see how far this model takes them.