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Post by ethanbein on Jun 1, 2014 14:20:38 GMT -5
This strike zone is atrocious... Plate discipline doesn't do you much good when strikes and balls are completely random.
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Post by ethanbein on May 30, 2014 23:25:34 GMT -5
So Price is getting traded to the Red Sox at the deadline, right?
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Post by ethanbein on May 29, 2014 22:07:05 GMT -5
Xander Bogaerts is now hitting .296/.388/.425, good for a 129 wRC+. That makes him the third-best hitting shortstop in the league, behind only Alexei Ramirez (132 wRC+) and Troy Tulowitzki (an absurd 204 wRC+). He's got the second-highest fWAR among shortstops in the AL, behind just Ramirez. He's an absolute stud. Xander Bogaerts wRC+: 129 David Ortiz wRC+: 130
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Post by ethanbein on May 29, 2014 21:54:34 GMT -5
Fangraphs now has the Red Sox at 33.8% to make the playoffs and as the second most likely team to win the division. Maybe this season isn't lost after all.
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Post by ethanbein on May 21, 2014 21:57:02 GMT -5
Jon Lester xFIP- 2012/2013/2014: 92/98/71 Jeff Samardzija xFIP- 2012/2013/2014: 87/92/92
So Lester's "best pitcher in baseball with a working UCL" 2014 notwithstanding, Samardzija has been just about as good. He's had some homer problems in the past, but he's put those behind him. Most people saw Lester as a solid #2 before this season (if not better), which is right about where I would put Samardzija.
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Post by ethanbein on May 20, 2014 16:58:29 GMT -5
The report I saw said a contract for the remainder of the year for around $10 mil, no QO at year end. I see what was posted above on the luxury tax but my understanding is that we would be a little over the limit with this contract and would have to cut somewhere else to stay under the limit ( I see a highly respected poster saying above this is not the case but it seems very close ). My understanding also is that we would lose up to $50 mil in revenue sharing dollars if we go over the limit. We are not going over the limit for anyone this year. Correct me if I'm wrong but the main issue isn't the luxury tax rate for us this year. We are at the lowest level and we would be barely over the limit so we would be talking a mil or 2 at most probably. The issue is maybe $50 mil in lost revenue sharing. Maybe I'm missing some details or just have my facts wrong but that is my understanding. Personally, I love the commitment to winning, but I don't like even this deal. And my gut tells me Middlebrooks is on his way somewhere else at this point. The fractured finger meant he would be a out for a while. They want to win this year and pulled the trigger. It seems a little unclear to me. This summary of the 2011 CBA says that the top fifteen largest market clubs will lose revenue sharing money by 2016. All the money that would have gone to those teams will be refunded to teams. However, it says that "Clubs that have exceeded the CBT threshold two or more consecutive times will forfeit some or all of their refund". That's super unclear, but it seems like as long as they stay under next year, they're fine even if they go over this year. The tax teams that are going over it for the first time is only 17.5% on the amount over, which really isn't bad at all. I doubt they'll feel the need to make a big salary dump unless they want to take on salary in a trade later this year.
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Post by ethanbein on May 20, 2014 14:16:16 GMT -5
By my count the 40-man is at 39. And the 25-man move is pretty obvious - either Holt or Herrera is optioned. EDIT: And we're not sure yet when Drew will be active. And when WMB is back from DL? Trade/DFA Carp and get WMB some reps at first?
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Post by ethanbein on May 20, 2014 13:57:09 GMT -5
Not bad at all. They weren't going to get a draft pick out of him at this point, and they're in a tight division race, so it makes sense to get in before the rest of the league would. And no multi-year commitment? I like it.
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Post by ethanbein on May 19, 2014 11:24:23 GMT -5
The offensive drop is less than you'd think. He went from a 133 wRC+ in Pawtucket to a 111 wRC+ so far in the majors. If the power picks up as the weather gets warmer, he'll be basically the same guy, as Bogaerts is still hitting for average and getting on base at the MLB level. What do you think I am trying to say? I am not asking that in a rude way I am just wondering if I am misrepresenting my argument.... 22 pts of WRC is not negligible. That is 22% production of an average player. 25 WRC pts separated Robinson Cano from Jarrod Saltalamacchia last year. If Bogaerts was in AAA this whole year I would expect his line to be closer to 300/400/500. There will be a translation between the two leagues. It not something as simple as being promoted to AAA = being ready for MLB. I think most people here would agree there's a significant difference between the minors and the majors. I think the point people were making is that the difference between AA and AAA isn't that big, and that if Mookie has mastered AA, there's not *that* much more he can learn offensively in AAA. I'm not sure how convinced I am myself, but that's different than there being a drop off between AAA and the majors - of course there is.
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Post by ethanbein on May 16, 2014 18:07:48 GMT -5
Will Mookie reach base in every single game he plays in AA?
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Post by ethanbein on May 15, 2014 15:05:29 GMT -5
WMB is not good at baseball. WMB is good at baseball!
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Post by ethanbein on May 10, 2014 0:18:46 GMT -5
Technically, "stabilization" just means the point at which you only have to regress 50% to the mean. It's kind of a silly concept, and it's mostly useful to see which statistics are more variable in smaller samples than others. Realistically, you can't just entirely throw out old data ever, but a small strikeout rate over 129 PA does tell you something, especially if you combine it with the scouting reports of different mechanics. His production wasn't even that bad last year, driven down by a low BABIP. I'd like to see what he can do in Pawtucket at this point. Eno Sarris does a good job explaining "stabilization" (which has a terrible name) www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/strikeouts-stabilization-and-suprising-swings/
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Post by ethanbein on Feb 20, 2014 16:52:24 GMT -5
I don't understand the "I don't want him in the AL East" sentiment. Every pitcher for the Red Sox has to pitch in the AL East... Why would Capuano's numbers get hurt any worse than any other pitcher's?
Love this deal for the Sox. I thought he was going to get 8-9 million, and I think he'll be better than Dempster - he's pretty much a lock to put up a roughly league average FIP-. If one of our prospects pitches their way out of AAA, they'll get their shot in the majors one way or another. Otherwise, we now have 6 legitimate above-replacement starters on the major league club. Can't complain there.
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Post by ethanbein on Feb 3, 2014 0:32:32 GMT -5
Was just looking through the ZiPS projections for the Sox, and ZiPS is pretty high on Butler: a mediocre .231/.302/.374 line, but good for 1.4 WAR over 388 PA, not too shabby at all. I hope we get a good look at him if/when one of our catchers gets injured this year, as he looks like he could be a decent major league backup, www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/
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Post by ethanbein on Feb 1, 2014 15:33:39 GMT -5
Hey guys, my first post here but I think I have a few things to add. On the difference between SP and RP WAR, there are a few things to keep in mind. One is pretty obvious, which is that starters throw a lot more innings than relievers. Koji threw quite a few last year, but still ended up under 74 IP. The best starters throw 3 times that many, so on a per-inning basis 3.3 WAR is huge. Another is that it's just a lot easier to be a reliever than a starter, so the replacement levels are different. A generic replacement level reliever from the minors can be expected to give nearly a league average ERA (~4.00), so any reliever that can't beat that by much isn't going to be very valuable. On the other hand, a starter with a 4.00 ERA can be hugely valuable (see Doubront, Felix). Another thing to keep in mind is that RP WAR is adjusted for leverage. So pitchers that throw in more important spots (closers) end up with higher WAR than a pitcher who pitches just as well in less important spots. In general though, I think looking at low elite RP WAR values and concluding that WAR undervalues them is a bit simplistic. RPs, even elite ones, just really aren't that valuable. I think that even with a replacement level closer instead of Koji, the Red Sox still win the division last year. Closers do become more important in the playoffs, though. As for fWAR vs bWAR, bWAR essentially starts with runs allowed and then adjusts for team defense. The problem is that it adjusts for total team defense, essentially assuming that every starter gets the same defense behind him, which is crazy. We know that different pitchers get drastically different run support just based on luck, so why wouldn't the same be true for defense? Fangraphs provides one WAR based on FIP and one based on runs allowed. Usually the FIP one is more accurate, but the RA one is there in cases where you think it's more accurate, especially if you have a larger sample size, say a whole career. Rivera for example beat his FIP year after year. This is a good article on the topic of fWAR vs bWAR for pitchers: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-our-pitcher-war-uses-fip/
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