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Post by texs31 on Apr 25, 2024 20:05:56 GMT -5
WHOA!
Falcons taking Penix.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 25, 2024 19:30:31 GMT -5
Happy Maye Day!!!
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Post by texs31 on Apr 25, 2024 19:25:54 GMT -5
Come on Washington. COME ON. Daniels it is
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Post by texs31 on Apr 25, 2024 15:07:51 GMT -5
Not going to do my own mock but, after aggregating a bunch of other mocks (from the various ESPN, CBS, NFL reporters as well as Brugler - 17 mocks in total) and reading up on some intel from those (and other "reputable" outlets) here's what seems to be going on (with all the caveats and grains of salt that are required):
1. Bears - Caleb Williams 2. Commanders - Jayden Daniels 3. Patriots - Drake Maye (both the consensus in the referenced mocks as well as comments by Perry, Breer, etc) suggest that this is their guy and they are unlikely to move (sans a Godfather offer). The question is what happens if Washington takes Maye. Would they take Daniels? Take McCarthy? Trade down? 4. Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr. 5. Chargers - This seems to be the prime spot for our first trade with a team looking to move up for the last of the top 4 QBs. What's interesting is that some of the mocks have LAC taking JC Latham as the 1st tackle off the board. Would make more sense at, say 11. So let's say Minny moves up for McCarthy (giving up 11 and 25). 6. Giants - Assuming they can't move up (and it sounds like they would target Maye), mocks suggest they like Nabers 7. Titans - If Alt gets past Chargers, he likely goes here. 8. Atlanta - Another interesting turning point for the draft? They are poised to get the best defensive player on the board but some are split on whether (for them) that's Turner or Byron Murphy II (who has come up a bunch here). Could they trade down (maybe with someone who wants to get ahead of Chicago or NYJ for one of the last upper echelon skill players in Odunze or Bowers)? Let's stick with the board and say they take Turner here but keep an eye out. 9. Bears - If the draft goes as above, Odunze (who some believe is only a hair behind Nabers and 1 1/2 behind MHJ) falls into their lap. Otherwise, they could go D. 10. Jets - The "consensus" suggest Bowers but have heard/read about WR. 11. Chargers - Could still get 2nd best OT. As stated above, they have interest in Latham (keeping Slater at LT). 12. Broncos- Some Denver and Nix connections but would they really take him at 12 (some say yes) or trade back and get him later in 1st. Seems like another trade spot (maybe someone coming up to get their choice of CB). Otherwise, they could go D themselves. 13. Raiders- Strong LVR and Penix connection with rumors that they would take him at 13. 14. Saints - At this point in the draft, it's not often you get such a "consensus" on a Team/Player/Spot connection but a lot of Fashanu here based on the referenced mocks. 15 - Colts with the last team for this exercise (don't want to through them all) I'll just say there is talk they want to move up for a WR. These mocks also suggest it's a worst case scenario for Bowers.
That's probably enough on pick by pick stuff. 2 other Team/Player connections coming from this exercise are Green Bay and Cooper DeJean and AD Mitchell and Buffalo (who definitely seem to target a WR).
Some other commentary about OT and WR (since NE would likely want one of those at their next pick:
Thomas seems a lock as 1st with Mitchell likely as well. Worthy (is he an X?) about 50% likely gone. The other WRs that NE could target using their 2nd pick (or a trade up) include McConkey, Coleman and Legette. Otherwise, are we looking at later in the draft?
As to OT, there will likely be a run. Alt, Fashanu and Latham have already been discussed. Fautanu (maybe a T) and Fuaga seem likely to be Top 20. Mims and Guyton seem to bottom out as late 1st rounders. So if NE wants of these guys, it's likely gonna need a trade up. Suamataia, Paul (late riser), Morgan and Rosengarten are next best?
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Post by texs31 on Apr 25, 2024 14:15:52 GMT -5
For those who care about such things, Onwenu will be announcing NE's 2nd Rd pick tomorrow night.
With Troy Vincent set to announce their 2nd (he's running the draft so will announce for any team not having a Legend or Active player announcing) I would imagine they just have Onwenu announce their 3rd if NE should happen to move back up into the 1st tonight.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 25, 2024 8:31:55 GMT -5
Reiss indicating that NE is looking into the price of moving up from 34. Also saying they are in continued negotiations with Barmore on an extension.
If NE walks away from this weekend with Maye, a 1st round caliber WR/OT (either by moving up or by one dropping to them) another starting candidate at whichever they didn't take with their 2nd pick AND an extended Christian Barmore? Holy cow!
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Post by texs31 on Apr 25, 2024 5:46:09 GMT -5
Happy Draft Day!!
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Post by texs31 on Apr 24, 2024 14:08:15 GMT -5
When were those lists updated?
Understand the late rise concern but if there wasn't legit reason for guys to climb, than evaluations of players would've stopped a long time ago.
Has to be some middle ground between a late rise and sticking with an evaluation based on observations from months ago.
Again, you watch these guys more than I do so are MUCH better equipped to do your own evals (even if I watched them, I wouldn't know what I was seeing 1/2 the time). But people I trust do and they have the guy in that range so it's a reasonable scenario for me. Not for you? That's fine.
EDIT - And sure, there are probably a number of guys you could put in at that pick and I would also post that "I don't hate it" (as I did with this mock).
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Post by texs31 on Apr 24, 2024 11:17:26 GMT -5
Tipman at 137? Can you say Dalton Keene? His production over 3 years equal total what he should have in one year to get picked that high. Yes he's a great athlete, better than Keene given his size, but has almost no catching production. His teammate Isaiah Williams slot WR is the guy you want from that program, kinda reminds me of Edelman. I've done enough mocks to know the value of the talent available at 137, it's very good. Falls off a cliff by pick 180. Still you'd have a hard time saying Tipman is great value at pick 180. That's just such a Bill pick, guys excited to play special teams. I just don't see how Tipman at 137 is a dream scenario. Heck a lot of those picks are picking guys early, not getting great value picking them latter. I can get on board with a bunch of them because I love the combination of Baker and Means to rebuild the X position. General rule of thumb, you don't overdraft a guy at a position in this draft that's rated the worst in the whole draft. Sorry still having flashbacks of trading up for Keene. Yeah but not having to trade up to get him = Win? (that's a joke). All seriousness, as you know, I'm not a talent evaluator (nor do I play one on TV) so I'm happy to rely on the "experts" out there. Of the ESPN guys, Kiper (not in Top 150) and Reid (172) would seemingly agree with you. Otherwise: Miller - 138 Muench - 125 Yates - 108 Add in: Jeremiah - 125 Brugler - 142. I don't know. That smells right to me. Will you be right? Will they? I don't know. But for this exercise, I'm good with it.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 24, 2024 8:34:53 GMT -5
Yesterday, Taylor Kyles posted his "Dream Scenario" Mock Draft and I don't hate it:
3. Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina 34. Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU 68. Javon Baker, WR, UCF 103. Austin Booker, ED, Kansas State 137. Tip Reiman, TE, Illinois 180. Bub Means, WR, Pittsburgh 193. Travis Glover Jr, OT, Georgia State 227. Chigozie Anusiem, CB, Colorado State
- We've probably covered why Maye at 3 is a dream scenario - Probably an argument for a "better" WR at 34 and "lesser" OT at 68. But, since there aren't trades in this scenario, I'm assuming the Xs that would be better picks are already gone. - The one defensive position that is a more pressing need for the immediate future is probably Edge so good there. - Keep reading about Tip as a mid-round TE that could be a find - Like the doubling up on WR and OT with the next picks and the connection with Bub and the Patriots as been well advertised - Can't say I know (or have read) a thing about Anuseim. So unless there is a IDL that is a better option here (since I think NE would get more value in adding a VETERAN CB anyway) . . . why not???
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Post by texs31 on Apr 24, 2024 7:48:13 GMT -5
theathletic.com/5440564/2024/04/24/nfl-draft-rumors-news-latest/The latest intel from Dianna Russini. Summing up the Pats stuff (with my version of what it likely means in parentheses): 1. Ownership is "involved" but more in an oversight ("keeping in the loop" not decision making) role. 2. NE likely to stick at 3 (suggesting it's more likely that "their guy" is falling to them) 3. IF they trade down, she expects them to trade back up to get their QB (the net result being the 3rd/4th best QB AND a net gain in additional assets - in lieu of just taking that guy at 3 or, worse, losing out completely) 4. They are willing to let that QB sit with Jacoby at the helm early on 5. They won't make their decision until they see who Washington takes (to me, this suggests a separation on THEIR board between their #1 non-Caleb choice and their #2 non-Caleb choice). Of course, my comments are based on the notion that this intel isn't entirely rubbish (not an indictment of Dianna but of the information she's receiving).
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Post by texs31 on Apr 23, 2024 20:48:08 GMT -5
I'm really struggling with the idea of taking a player with the #3 pick that, as a team, you aren't all in on (or "in love with" if mine is an improper translation). The #3 pick is:
- Obviously, using your biggest tool to add to the team at this point (whether you want to measure solely by player rank or by % of your draft cap) - Supposed to be a "face of the franchise" type player - In NE's case, be representative of the new way things are being done
And we're okay banking all that on a player just bc he fills a need (albeit the most import one)? Woof.
If they trade out and the QB they passed on ended up being special, the issue isn't why they traded down. It's why DIDN'T they love the guy? What is it about their evaluation that failed them?
Their execution wouldn't be the failure. The evaluation would be.
And to those whose reply is something along the lines of "Who cares. They screwed up by trading down", I'd ask you how to avoid the situation happening again (either trading down when the player they should want is right there or, the reverse, by staying and taking a player that they shouldn't take) when you refuse to identify the source of the problem.
And, again, I'd also add that I'd be stunned if ANY decision maker in the NFL approaches the draft (especially at the top) this way. We're asking them to act in a way that's the opposite of why they likely got (or have) the job in the first place.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 23, 2024 20:35:43 GMT -5
The other reports that came out today (not sure who was first but the MassLive folks certainly had it at some point) was that the offers New England has received for #3 are "laughable".
FWIW
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Post by texs31 on Apr 23, 2024 14:34:18 GMT -5
Lohrei up, I wonder how bad Peeke’s injury is Per Monty, it's week to week (not day to day) so . . . not good
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Post by texs31 on Apr 22, 2024 15:50:59 GMT -5
Obviously don't love the meddling but I, for some reason, would feel better if he's providing the "probably shouldn't trade down" voice than the other way around.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 17, 2024 14:46:11 GMT -5
FWIW, Belichick (on the McAfee show where he will be joining them for their Draft special) said that information doesn't leak from teams until about 12 hours before the draft. Most of the information at this point is from agents.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 15, 2024 21:20:45 GMT -5
Looks like NE is having a Top 30 visit with Penix.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 15, 2024 21:18:04 GMT -5
Your providing examples of a plan based on good fortune though. Do you think those GMs, if suddenly needing a QB and armed with a top pick, would be saying, "Hey, I can get my guy in the 2nd rd or even late in Day 3?"
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Post by texs31 on Apr 15, 2024 21:04:33 GMT -5
I expect the Pats will take a QB at #3. I think that is a bad move. If they do pick at #3 then their next picks are 34, 68, and 103. 1. teams have a lot of difficulty identifying which QBs will succeed in the pros. I'm not going to rehash the arguments for Maye vs Daniels vs McCarthy - but I think its safe to say that none of them is a can't miss type prospect. If all we needed was a QB, then sure, roll the dice at #3, but.... 2. even if the Pats do correctly identify the right guy at #3, given the Pats current situation, we may never know. The OL was bad last year, particularly in pass protection. All they have done between last year and this year is to replace Trent Brown (who despite his issues was actually good) with Okorafor (who has been barely adequate). Putting a rookie QB in behind this OL, and with this weak WR core, will almost certainly not get good results, with a significant probability of wrecking him altogether. 3. it would be surprising if the Pats could get a day 1 starting OT at 34 (or 68 or 103). Alt will be gone by pick 10. Mims, Fuaga, Latham, Fashanu should all be gone by pick 20. A lot of people like Troy Fautanu. He definitely moves well. But his anchor is questionable, he gets run into his QB a lot, and his run blocking is...poor. I don't get the love for him at all...and he may not even be there at 34. It is questionable whether Morgan and Barton are OTs. Patrick Paul needs a lot of work on run blocking but might be ok day 1 in pass protection despite some hand issues. Guyton, Suamataia, Fisher, Amegadjie each need a ton of development work. After that, there are a few swing tackles who might be ok off the bench, but they don't really move the needle. 4. the Pats can probably do better with upgrading IOL with picks 34, 68, 103. Jackson Powers-Johnson could fall to pick 34. Christian Mahogany and Cooper Beebe should be available at 34 and maybe at 68. I like Mahogany a good bit better. Dominick Puni, Mason McCormick, and Brandon Coleman (if you buy his poor 2023 performance was due to injury) should all be available at 34, 68, and maybe at 103. 5. If the Pats were to take MJH at #3 ...ok I would get it. MJH, Nabers, and Bowers would be huge upgrades to our pass catching core. Those are the types of talents that you can't get lower in the draft. And even if the Brissett struggles with a poor OL, it would not risk ruining MJH (or Nabers or Bowers). 6. Go after good linemen first. Protect your QB. Once you have a good line, then start adding weapons. Then you can worry about getting your franchise QB. Trade up if necessary, or better yet, sign a free agent QB. Yes it costs $ but let someone else experiment with a college QB. And its not like drafting a college QB saves you $ for his career. If he is any good, then after 4 years you need to pay him anyways. I expect everyone will hate this plan. I don't disagree with your first bullet. You don't just take the QB high bc you need a QB. Its all in the evaluation. After that, you lost me. I'd be shocked to learn a single decision maker in the NFL thinks this way. Heck, I don't even think those in the media who are saying it actually think this way (instead, being motivated by the need to create content). Passing up on a guy who could fill the most important position on the field bc the OTHER players aren't good enough? That's absurd. Take him. Sit him, if need be. Also, It's so easy to eventually trade up to get a franchise QB but you can't trade up (even in this very draft) to get a starting LT? Say that aloud to yourself. It defies everything we know about the sport. And btw, if you're hanging your hat on the fact that evaluators are questioning the can't miss nature of the QBs, you should also trust them when they say this is one of the strongest OT classes in a while and starting caliber players will be available well into Day 2. I feel like we get into these discussions bc of a false notion that we have as much info as the teams. We don't. They are making decisions based on info we don't even come close to having. They don't have to rely on these weird strategies bc they can rely on the information they are gathering and are willing to bet their jobs on it.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 9, 2024 6:51:25 GMT -5
I'd say that's why there are so many QB busts and why so many QBs rise up ranking after the season. It's the we need one, so just take one who cares if it makes sense value wise. You trade down potentially if you feel like I do, that Daniels and McCarthy aren't top 3 pick type QBs. Nevermind you have them in the same tier as 5 other QBs in this draft. Per reports the Patriots are asking for the moon right now, example given Vikings two first, next year's first and a player. If that gets Vikings into top 3, can't we do the exact same thing next year with 2 first round picks? Nevermind I have a feeling if we trade down, they have another QB they like a lot that they will target. I'd only complain if there's a QB at 3 that they think is worth the pick and they still trade down, just to get more value. No way they should do that and I don't think they will. I get all that, and fully agree if they are truly unbelieving in whoever is left at three, trading down or picking #1 player on the board is correct. But expecting we'll have a better chance at a franchise QB in the future is wrong. History says this is our best near-term chance, especially since there are consensus Top 10 pick-worthy QBs (not like Kenny Pickett type years). I don't want to see another situation where they are trying to outsmart everyone and only outsmart themselves. The chance to draft a franchise QB doesn't matter if they don't think the guys available are franchise QBs (or there is enough doubt that they want to hedge their bets). And, despite every other narrative, that will be why they trade down (if they do). If you believe otherwise, than you have ZERO confidence in the FO (so any decision they make should be questioned). I'd also just add, if they DO trade back, you won't here the real reason why. Can't imagine the team saying "well, we didn't think he was valuable at 3 so we traded back and were lucky enough to get him". You'll, as we typically do, hear the "we would've taken him at 3 but . . ."
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Post by texs31 on Apr 8, 2024 14:27:48 GMT -5
In the tweet where he first shared this, Evan did say he doesn't endorse the trade down. He was just entertaining the scenario.
I've also read him say that he only believes they should trade down IF they don't like the options enough at 3 to bet their draft on it (or something like that).
Remember, content providers have to . . . provide content.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 7, 2024 13:04:53 GMT -5
Also happy that they didn't add to their list of needs by letting these guys walk. It does seem a bit steep. Here are some of the better safeties who signed during this offseason. Winfield got 17.12 for 1 yr, franchise tag McKinney got 16.75 for 4 yrs, 23 guaranteed Curl got 4.5 for 2 yrs, 6 guaranteed Stone got 7 for 2 yrs, 6 guaranteed Gilman got 5.06 for 2 yrs, 5.63 guaranteed But I dont have an issue with them overspending a bit to keep one if their better players. It woyld have been nice if they had signed a true FS so they could keep Dugger closer to the line. To the extent you believe the snap numbers in PFF, this is already true. Peppers is really the Free Safety here with Dugger more in the Box.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 7, 2024 10:50:26 GMT -5
Base: 58m Max: 66m Guaranteed: 32.5m Seems a bit steep to me, but building a new culture of "if you do well you'll be rewarded HERE" seems like a decent precedent to set (though not maintain forever) in light off BB's "you get exactly what I think you're worth or else you're gone." I'm so very ready for the draft. Also happy that they didn't add to their list of needs by letting these guys walk.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 7, 2024 9:01:18 GMT -5
Not sure anyone could've predicted that Onwenu, Dugger and Uche would all be Patriots heading into next season.
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Post by texs31 on Apr 7, 2024 8:17:59 GMT -5
Dugger signed. 4 yr deal.
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