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Post by jmei on Nov 20, 2023 10:43:57 GMT -5
There has been a fair amount of quantitative analysis on how much opt-out clauses are worth. The best public work I've seen is this Ben Clemons article which concludes (you have to read into the comments for it) that an opt out is worth roughly $0.9-$1.2 million/WAR, or roughly $40M for Machado and Arenado back in 2019. blogs.fangraphs.com/whats-an-opt-out-worth/
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Post by jmei on Nov 20, 2023 10:27:12 GMT -5
Please knock off the petty back and forth. Thanks.
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Post by jmei on Nov 19, 2023 23:23:34 GMT -5
I’m not saying to never include an opt out, but it’s something that is tremendously valuable to a player and so a team shouldn’t agree to it lightly.
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Post by jmei on Nov 19, 2023 21:15:15 GMT -5
Opt-outs or player options are always bad for the team. If the player opts out and signs for more money in free agency, it means that you could have traded him for value at that point even if you didn’t want to keep him for the last part of his contract.
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Post by jmei on Nov 19, 2023 16:02:15 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Nov 19, 2023 11:13:09 GMT -5
I’ll take the under on 2 WAR next year on Urias, and I’ll bet that every public projection system will too.
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2023 22:02:07 GMT -5
While in general regressing to the mean is a worthy projection method, in cases where (whether due to injury or mechanical issues or something else) a player’s profile fundamentally changes, it can be misleading. Not sure which bucket Urias falls into, but I believe his quality of contact has been way down (even after his joining the Red Sox) and so they presumably think he’s got low odds of returning to the player he was a few years ago.
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2023 20:05:05 GMT -5
can you please not try to make every thread a referendum on Bloom? He’s fired, we’ve done that. This has nothing to do with 2024 free agency. For the record, I was merely replying to a post about Bloom. I didn’t introduce the topic. His previous decisions also have an outsized impact on “2024 Free Agency”. Do you disagree? I have no patience for this relentless need to revisit past front offices and past transactions. Even if you didn’t start it, don’t continue it.
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2023 15:28:07 GMT -5
I mean the reason was that it was a low-risk, high-upside gamble at a position of need that they got in exchange for a guy they were probably going to nontender. He had basically the worst possible recovery from his injury and it didn’t work out, c’est la vie. You know, they did fire Bloom a couple months ago. He’s gone. He can’t hurt you anymore. Indeed, everyone should observe the precedent set by the total silence on DD after he was fired. Please cut out the off topic tangents. That’s two today. You’ve been warned about this before. Thanks.
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Post by jmei on Nov 18, 2023 11:56:36 GMT -5
I like the new guy. A little hammy but that’s pretty typical for announcers. Decent rapport with Scal already.
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Post by jmei on Nov 17, 2023 22:36:20 GMT -5
Good sign that they can win games like tonight.
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Post by jmei on Nov 16, 2023 15:43:12 GMT -5
So much of sports media reporting is just anonymous gossip. It's tabloids for grown men who watch other grown men play games. That doesn't mean all of it is wrong, just means that you have to take it with a huge grain of salt (e.g., since the reporter and/or the source of the information may have an ax to grind or not know what they're talking about).
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Post by jmei on Nov 16, 2023 9:21:00 GMT -5
There's lots of teams that talk about sacrificing individual production for the good of the team, but it's hard for guys to actually do it. Low ego, team first guys like Holiday, White and Horford are rare, and that attitude looks like its rubbing off on Porzingis and Brown.
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Post by jmei on Nov 11, 2023 21:01:37 GMT -5
When Jaylen Brown is on, he is a really impressive player.
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Post by jmei on Nov 11, 2023 20:46:51 GMT -5
The Raptors are one of those teams that highlights that it’s a star-driven league. They have a bunch of pretty good players but no one who can consistently create good shots and so end up not winning a lot of games.
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Post by jmei on Nov 10, 2023 21:37:22 GMT -5
I TAKE IT ALL BACK
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Post by jmei on Nov 10, 2023 21:14:58 GMT -5
Hauser is kind of useless if he’s not making shots.
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Post by jmei on Nov 9, 2023 13:12:28 GMT -5
It’s not that hard. The Patriots thought that the production that Uche provides over the rest of the season plus the odds of re-signing him after the season plus the odds of getting a comp pick if he leaves after the season, combined, was more valuable than a fifth round pick. Cool, we get it, you disagree, but it’s not rocket science to understand why they did what they did. They won't get a compensation pick if they make free agent signings and have some of the most cap space in the league next year. So, that part of the equation is out of the formula. Unless they feel like going status quo with this roster. It's highly unlikely they're getting anything for outgoing free agents. You speak too much in absolutes. Neither we nor they (nor anyone else) knows how the offseason will play out. There are scenarios where they don’t get any comp picks because they sign more eligible free agents than they give up, but there are also scenarios where they do end up with a comp pick because they don’t end up signing a lot of eligible free agents for whatever reason. It’s not 100% odds of a comp pick, but you have to plug some value there to account for that value.
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Post by jmei on Nov 9, 2023 11:21:57 GMT -5
It’s not that hard. The Patriots thought that the production that Uche provides over the rest of the season plus the odds of re-signing him after the season plus the odds of getting a comp pick if he leaves after the season, combined, was more valuable than a fifth round pick. Cool, we get it, you disagree, but it’s not rocket science to understand why they did what they did.
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Post by jmei on Nov 8, 2023 20:53:27 GMT -5
Why the hell is Brown bringing up the ball against press coverage?
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Post by jmei on Nov 8, 2023 20:49:09 GMT -5
Tatum out there with the bench and doesn’t get a shot for two and a half minutes.
Hauser and Pritchard do kind of suck defensively so when they aren’t making shots, they are negative players.
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Post by jmei on Nov 6, 2023 10:28:05 GMT -5
The thing is, once a season starts going south, some players and teams just pack it in. They stop putting in as much effort both on the practice field and in games. Will we see that here? They’re talented enough (even with the recent injuries) to win some of these remaining games, but only if they’re giving full effort.
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Post by jmei on Nov 5, 2023 16:05:49 GMT -5
…and a dropped pass game ending pick. That’s not really on Mac.
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Post by jmei on Nov 5, 2023 15:46:05 GMT -5
Kornet gets a lot of hate (in part because he’s a goofy white guy) but he’s a legitimate rotation player who adds value on both ends. Would prefer not to have to play him during the playoffs but he’s a valuable regular season player.
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Post by jmei on Nov 5, 2023 13:16:43 GMT -5
Mac Jones, with great protection, overthrows Thornton by 10 yards. You need your QB to be able to make that throw.
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