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Post by incandenza on May 10, 2024 18:36:05 GMT -5
How do O'Brien and Youk fail to comment on that throwing style by O'Neill?
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Post by incandenza on May 10, 2024 17:24:57 GMT -5
They managed to scrounge up a 7-righty lineup after all! (The trick was for Casas and Yoshida to suffer long-term injuries.)
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Post by incandenza on May 10, 2024 17:20:39 GMT -5
For what it's worth, the ex-Sox are out-WARing the current Sox so far. But that's a little bit cheaty because the ex-Sox don't have a bench and the current Sox' bench has contributed like -2.5 wins. (To be clear, the current Sox are in *much* better shape for the long term than this ex-Sox team would be.)
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Post by incandenza on May 10, 2024 14:35:10 GMT -5
He can be the utility guy! With a Rafaelaesque ability to swing between the OF and IF. I am just realizing Verdugo is their only lefty bat. Benintendi could have helped there but, good lord, I just looked at his season stats
The most expensive contract in White Sox history has produced -1.4 WAR.
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Post by incandenza on May 10, 2024 14:07:36 GMT -5
Three of those starting pitchers are on the IL right now and two haven't pitched at all this year. I think it would look a lot like the last couple seasons here, except this time, with Mookie Betts. A good not great lineup that will be really frustrating/maddeningly inconsistent since it's so top heavy, strikes out a lot, and relies on starting 3-4 guys who are or should be bench players. It's charitable to include Wacha and Perez on the SP depth chart because guys with other choices aren't going to want to sign somewhere to be a 7th SP. So it looks like the last couple seasons, in that if almost everything breaks right, 86-88 wins isn't out of the question. But it will end up with 70 to 70something wins, because almost everything breaking right almost never happens, and you have to wonder what the contingency plans look like when plan A is to e.g. feed Yu Chang 500 PA. Yeah that's about what I was thinking.
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Post by incandenza on May 10, 2024 13:38:15 GMT -5
What would this team's record be? C- Christian Vazquez 1B- Justin Turner 2B- Yu Chang 3B- Luis Urias SS- Xander Bogaerts LF- Adam Duvall
CF- Mookie Betts RF- Alex Versugo
DH- JD Martinez SP1- Sale SP2- Eovaldi SP3- ERodriguez SP4- Paxton
SP5- Springs SP6- Wacha SP7- Martin Perez
BP- Pressly, Schreiber, Strahm, Ottavino, Strickland, Ryan Fernandez, Joe Kelly I believe their payroll would be just under the LTT.
What is this team supposed to be? Is there a theme other than it being active guys no longer with the team? It is supposed to be a) just a list of former Red Sox players, no more nor less; b) a way for me to procrastinate from work for 15 minutes.
I'm not trying to make a point; I was just curious what this would look like.
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Post by incandenza on May 10, 2024 13:15:14 GMT -5
What would this team's record be?
C- Christian Vazquez 1B- Justin Turner 2B- Yu Chang 3B- Luis Urias SS- Xander Bogaerts LF- Adam Duvall
CF- Mookie Betts RF- Alex Versugo
DH- JD Martinez
SP1- Sale SP2- Eovaldi SP3- ERodriguez SP4- Paxton
SP5- Springs SP6- Wacha SP7- Martin Perez
BP- Pressly, Schreiber, Strahm, Ottavino, Strickland, Ryan Fernandez, Joe Kelly
I believe their payroll would be just under the LTT.
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Post by incandenza on May 9, 2024 17:04:49 GMT -5
The Dodgers get *two* guys on this list: Glasnow: 9th by FIP, 21st by ERA Yamamoto: 24th by FIP, 24th by ERA And then there's Burnes: 39th by FIP (exactly at league median), 25th by ERA Jones: 31st by FIP, 20th by ERA Berrios: 67th by FIP (out of 79!), 27th by ERA Compared to: Houck: 1st by FIP, 11th by ERA Crawford: 15th by FIP, 7th by ERA Hey, man… it’s a tweet. Not necessarily where one goes for accuracy. It is not a tweet, sir. It is a Pitcher Power Ranking; it is simply being advertised by tweet! And I will not tolerate this amateurish lack of rigor in my Pitcher Power Rankings!
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Post by incandenza on May 9, 2024 12:55:54 GMT -5
The Dodgers get *two* guys on this list:
Glasnow: 9th by FIP, 21st by ERA Yamamoto: 24th by FIP, 24th by ERA
And then there's
Burnes: 39th by FIP (exactly at league median), 25th by ERA Jones: 31st by FIP, 20th by ERA Berrios: 67th by FIP (out of 79!), 27th by ERA
Compared to:
Houck: 1st by FIP, 11th by ERA Crawford: 15th by FIP, 7th by ERA
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Post by incandenza on May 9, 2024 9:09:38 GMT -5
His wRC+ right now is 148 which would be a career high for him, is he a superstar? Eh probably not but using RBI as a stat as an indicator of much is pretty useless in my eyes. And yet everyone is complaining about not hitting with RISP. He's had a bad few games in that department but it's not really predictive and he has a positive Clutch rating for his career.
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Post by incandenza on May 9, 2024 8:38:23 GMT -5
Is Brandon Belt being blackballed or something? I understand the red flags with him, but he's obviously a better option than Dominic Smith. Did the team have any interest in him after Casas went down? Would he just not have signed on for a marginal role?
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Post by incandenza on May 8, 2024 19:29:02 GMT -5
I swear on every bang-bang play in this game, the Red Sox runners have been out and the Braves runners have been safe.
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Post by incandenza on May 8, 2024 19:21:30 GMT -5
Jesus, that fan really endangered his infant child on that Ozuna homer.
No comment on whether that's the kind of adaptive fitness I've come to expect from Braves fans.
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Post by incandenza on May 8, 2024 19:14:59 GMT -5
It's insane that every single one of Grissom, Short, Cooper and Smith has been/was absolutely horrendous so far. Collectively -0.7 WAR in 15 games. They couldn't get an even okay start from one of those guys? Law of Conservation of Dalbec?
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Post by incandenza on May 8, 2024 18:58:25 GMT -5
How does every spare part we pick up to fill a hole struggle to put up an OPS above 500 They're really engaged in an elaborate deconstruction of the whole concept of "replacement level."
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Post by incandenza on May 8, 2024 18:43:27 GMT -5
Well now that's a frustrating turn of events.
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Post by incandenza on May 8, 2024 16:49:26 GMT -5
Rafaela is now at -4 OAA in 183 innings at SS including last year, something to keep an eye on. Statcast is giving him credit for 63 attempts at SS across those innings, which is still a small enough sample that it doesn't take many random boots to warp things. There's also precious few opportunities to impress given that most plays are "sure things." Indeed, you look at the breakdown, essentially all of the "negatives" are coming from 4 misplays on balls with an expected success rate of >95%. Given his reputation over the last few years and whatever the eye test is worth, I'm willing to chalk that up to bad luck/rookie mistakes. I'd be surprised if he didn't climb back into the positives by the end of the year if he remains the everyday shortstop. He's made some of those rookie mistakes in CF too, like the time he was too casual about the transfer and just let the ball fall out of his glove on a ~100% out play. The upshot is that he's actually been a below-average fielder in his career by all of OAA, DRS, and UZR.
Which is kinda funny, given his reputation and the unbridled confidence we all have in his defense. Or, well, I'd consider my confidence in his SS defense to be somewhat bridled. But hopeful!
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Post by incandenza on May 8, 2024 16:44:27 GMT -5
I don't understand why Romy is at 1st base while Cooper is the DH. Has Romy ever started a major league game at 1st? IS Cooper that bad at 1st? It is weird, but that is Cora. Refsyder not playing either against the lefty ?? Refsnyder came out of the game on Sunday with an injury.
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Post by incandenza on May 8, 2024 16:40:43 GMT -5
âShort is confirmed to be the DFA, Romy is activatedâ â How does Hamilton keep surviving these roster cuts? It has to be Chase Meidrothâs turn soon, yes? Hamilton is a much more useful player as the 26th man than Short in that he's a better hitter and baserunner and a lefty while all their other MI options are righties. I also don't see the point in putting Meidroth in that spot when he'd never play and also be less useful than Hamilton. Also people are really overestimating how bad Hamilton is/has been. He's been replacement level, which is much much better than what they've gotten from Reyes, Rafaela, Valdez, or Dalbec. I really think Hamilton triggers some '23 Kiké PTSD or something because the criticisms are so out of proportion to the offenses. Rafaela's defensive stats at SS are not much better than Hamilton's, but everyone gives Rafaela the benefit of the doubt on his several mistakes because of the defensive reputation. I do think Rafaela is better at SS, but the gap isn't that huge.
But even more to the point, Hamilton is backing up Grissom at 2B as the latter returns from injury, and Hamilton seems perfectly fine as a second baseman. If he's not mis-cast as a starting shortstop, he's a useful player in a limited role.
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Post by incandenza on May 8, 2024 13:37:25 GMT -5
It's very weird that all of the following are true:
- Rafaela has a wRC+ of 63, 14th worst in the majors out of 117 qualified hitters - Rafaela has a WPA of -1.19, 6th worst in the majors - Rafaela has a Clutch rating of -0.56, 13th worst in the majors
- Rafaela leads the Red Sox with 20 RBI
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Post by incandenza on May 8, 2024 12:59:37 GMT -5
The big caveats on Wong are the .400 BABIP and the wOBA-xwOBA gap (.412 vs. .307). Still, I have to think that if he keeps his K rate close to 23% he ought to be at least an average hitter, which would be great for a catcher (especially if he can learn to block balls or frame pitches every once in a while).
If Rafaela can maintain a 92 wRC+ then he's probably a 3 WAR player at least.
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Post by incandenza on May 8, 2024 9:25:30 GMT -5
Blake Snell, 2023: 180 IP, 2.25 ERA All Red Sox starters, 2024: 181 IP, 2.13 ERA How is this even possible? This for some reason brings me back to I forget exactly what year it was but the spring training when all the Sox starters wore T-shirts that said he's the ace. That's all I have to add at this point but gave me a chuckle remembering that nugget. It was 2015 and that team's starters (Buchholz, Miley, ERodriguez, Porcello, and Joe Kelly, plus fill-ins) managed a 4.39 ERA, 24th in the majors (though they were 13th by fWAR). It's funny that this year's starters are even more obscure but have been much better.
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Post by incandenza on May 7, 2024 22:44:07 GMT -5
Blake Snell, 2023: 180 IP, 2.25 ERA All Red Sox starters, 2024: 181 IP, 2.13 ERA
How is this even possible?
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Post by incandenza on May 7, 2024 22:34:49 GMT -5
Annoying game. Yeah they had some bad PAs in the RISP situations but they also had hard contact in several of those situations too, and with average luck on those they add several more runs.
Meanwhile, the "additions" of Short, Smith, Cooper, and Grissom have brought the number of negative WAR position players up to 10. (Hopefully Grissom and Cooper won't stay they're long; Smith I'm not too optimistic about.)
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Post by incandenza on May 7, 2024 18:56:20 GMT -5
List of things I would have found more interesting than that in-game Criswell interview:
- the baseball game I was trying to watch - pretty much anything else I could imagine
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