SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by incandenza on May 1, 2024 13:50:52 GMT -5
xwOBA and / wOBA of all the stating or bulk pitchers. Note the pattern.
For amusement I've added the depth chart position at the start of the spring.
.271 / .245 Crawford [4]
.281 / .236 Houck [5]
.289 / .251 Criswell [8]
.298 / .231 Pivettta [3
.304 / .287 Bello [2]
.327 / .283 Whitlock [6]
.359 / .275 Winckoswki (2 G) [7]
.350 / .314 Anderson (all ) .541 / .660 start (1) [9]
Huge apparent contribution from defensive positioning.
Relatedly (?), I've noticed that the starting rotation's ERA is a full run below their FIP. And every single starter has an ERA<FIP. Which is especially weird considering that the defense has generally sucked!
Positioning could be one explanation, but it surprises me if there's still that much relative gain to be had from a team's defensive positioning in the year 2024.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on May 1, 2024 13:03:15 GMT -5
The amount of equivocal corporate jargon and LinkedIn gibberish in that article sickens me lol I know Bres is a smart dude, but I get intense flashbacks to meetings with current and former supervisors that leave me feeling completely empty on the inside. #synergy Breslow seems to be good at his job, but he is definitely about 10% creepier than I'm really comfortable with.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on May 1, 2024 7:18:55 GMT -5
List of Red Sox pitchers whose ERA is better than the ZiPS 80th percentile projection:
Bello Whitlock Pivetta Crawford Houck Winckowski
Jansen Bernardino Kelly Booser Slaten Weissert Criswell Anderson
Pitchers whose ERA is worse than the ZiPS median projection:
Martin Rodriguez Campbell
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 30, 2024 22:43:36 GMT -5
Random fairly pointless stat: Jarren Duran is on pace for 767 PAs, which would be more than anyone has had since Jimmy Rollins in 2007.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 30, 2024 16:25:31 GMT -5
As we all know, projections can be taken as gospel; they are infallible predictors of the future. So it is interesting to note the Garrett Cooper is pegged for a wRC+ between 105 and 108 for the rest of the season. That would be between 108 and 111 points better than what Dalbec's given them (though, alas, 26-29 points worse than what Casas has given them).
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 30, 2024 15:31:52 GMT -5
Julian Mack said Grissom isn't active because of the flu. The Red Sox really can't have nice things. A player unable to return from IL because they got the flu after flu season had already ended is the most 2022-2024 Red Sox thing ever.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 30, 2024 12:00:29 GMT -5
There were posts early on comparing projections across teams. Given the error bars associated with those - that range of projections - the comparison is not very useful. Again, change analysis would seem to be the best way to utilize these. I'm also of the notion that it's long past time for all the projection systems and the sites that tout them, such as Fangraphs, to include graphical displays to show that range of possible outcomes. Stacast leads the way here. This isn't the 1950s. There are plenty of tools for doing that. What is change analysis? How would you use projections to do it?
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 30, 2024 11:35:33 GMT -5
Everyone who is criticizing projections is criticizing them on the grounds that they are not gospel and can't be taken as reliably predicting the future, which is something that no one who actually references the projections thinks.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 30, 2024 11:33:44 GMT -5
Per Alex Speier (from his and Tom Caron's new podcast "310 to Left"): Vaughn Grissom saw 61 fastballs on his Triple A rehab - he swung and missed twice. When is he coming up? Supposed to be today.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 29, 2024 20:35:36 GMT -5
Duran slumped for about a week, and it may have ended on Friday (.333/.455/.667 in the last two games). He's fine. Is that a triple slash line for a 2-game sample? And one of those hits was off a position player. He doesn't seem like he's busted his slump quite yet to me, but I also think Duran is awesome and wouldn't move him from leadoff unless he was getting a day off entirely. Yeah but the "slump" itself is a tiny sample. It would hardly have been noticed in July, but a one-week slump in April craters the stats.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 29, 2024 19:21:43 GMT -5
At what point do we move Duran out of the leadoff spot to take some pressure off while he tries to get his swing back? Wilyer probably walks enough with average speed to be an ok fit there. Its not like we run a ton in front of Devers, TON anyway. Duran slumped for about a week, and it may have ended on Friday (.333/.455/.667 in the last two games). He's fine.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 29, 2024 13:00:01 GMT -5
Isn't this kind of the exact reason they acquired him? He's an established player who's a good bet to be around league average as a hitter. He was DFA because the Cubs had better options for 1B, not because he's terrible. It is, but there's no guarantee that he's not as bad as Dalbec or anyone else. Just saying to give it a week or so to see what they have in Cooper before the very likely Dalbec demotion. I will 100% guarantee, and bet any amount of money, they he won't be as bad as Dalbec.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 29, 2024 11:12:06 GMT -5
You keep using that word "absurd." I do not think it means what you think it means.
On positional flexibility, Reyes literally plays more positions than Dalbec, so I really wouldn't call that claim "absurd."
I'm trying not to repeat myself on the point that gradations of badness matter, but I'll just sum it up like this: Dalbec can simply not hit a baseball anymore. I'm pretty sure his batting line is worse than the average pitcher's was back when they hit. So, again, if I'm expecting Dalbec to continue to be a significantly worse hitter than Reyes, as he has been this season and was last season, I don't think that's "absurd."
ADD: I'm kind of marvelling at the fact, not just that you think Dalbec is a better 2B/SS than Reyes or Hamilton, but that you're treating it as self-evident, when he has a total of 82 innings at those two positions combined - including his entire minor league career.
Kind of like you treating Reyes as self-evidently better at the plate after 20 plus games. But to your point on positional flexibility - Reyes has about 269 innings at SS and 289 innings at 2B. His record at SS isn't all that terrible - though it is not good so far this year in just 13.2 innings with -2 DRS. But he's actually been even worse at 2B with -6 DRS over those 289 innings. And he has 4 errors at 3B just this season in just 78 innings. I don't see a guy with greater positional flexibility - I see a guy who isn't good defensively and who doesn't hit, doesn't run all that well, can't bunt and really just doesn't belong in the major leagues. I'm not treating it as self-evident - I'm providing evidence! Namely, that Reyes has been better at the plate, not just in 20 games but since the start of 2023 (85 games for Reyes, 41 games for Dalbec).
But I guess what this comes down to is that I just think Dalbec is so bad at the plate that any of the other comparisons don't matter; he just can't play anymore, and I have no real faith in a recovery. He had the worst K rate in the majors last year. He has the worst K rate in the majors this year. He's actually *outperforming* his xwOBA, which is .149 (a full 105 points worse than Reyes). There is, in my view, a large gap in the offensive performance between Dalbec and Reyes, both to date since the start of last season and in what I'd expect going forward.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 29, 2024 10:31:41 GMT -5
Why is that nonsense? He hasn't been a slightly better hitter than Dalbec; he's been a lot better. And he's been a worse fielder but has more (and more useful to this team) positional flexibility. I'd also expect positive regression on defense; he looked pretty good to me last year and most of his trouble this season has been at SS. I think he's fine as a 2B/3B guy.
Though it looks like this may be academic...
Reyes has been pretty awful in the field at every position except 1B - the idea that he has more positional flexibility is absurd. It's nonsense because Bradley and Bogaerts have careers as solid major league players - which is something that Dalbec and Reyes don't have. You're talking about 200-250 pitches on a season and trying to make it meaningful by comparing them to guys who have over 14,000 and over 22,000 pitches. It's absurd. You keep using that word "absurd." I do not think it means what you think it means.
On positional flexibility, Reyes literally plays more positions than Dalbec, so I really wouldn't call that claim "absurd."
I'm trying not to repeat myself on the point that gradations of badness matter, but I'll just sum it up like this: Dalbec can simply not hit a baseball anymore. I'm pretty sure his batting line is worse than the average pitcher's was back when they hit. So, again, if I'm expecting Dalbec to continue to be a significantly worse hitter than Reyes, as he has been this season and was last season, I don't think that's "absurd."
ADD: I'm kind of marvelling at the fact, not just that you think Dalbec is a better 2B/SS than Reyes or Hamilton, but that you're treating it as self-evident, when he has a total of 82 innings at those two positions combined - including his entire minor league career.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 29, 2024 10:09:17 GMT -5
But Reyes has been a much better hitter than Dalbec: a 25 wRC+ vs. -3. That 28 point gap is the same as the career difference between Jackie Bradley Jr. and Xander Bogaerts. I'd expect both of them to positively regress somewhat, but I'd expect Reyes to continue to be a better hitter, and probably by a substantial margin. Let's say you're right and he is a slightly better hitter than Dalbec (the Bradley/Bogaerts stuff is nonsense), he's been a significantly worse fielder. Why is that nonsense? He hasn't been a slightly better hitter than Dalbec; he's been a lot better. And he's been a worse fielder but has more (and more useful to this team) positional flexibility. I'd also expect positive regression on defense; he looked pretty good to me last year and most of his trouble this season has been at SS. I think he's fine as a 2B/3B guy. And I think you're really giving Dalbec an awfully generous evaluation if you think he would be better at 2B or SS in the long run.
Though it looks like this may be academic...
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 29, 2024 10:04:24 GMT -5
Can you fit them all in AAA though? Pablo Reyes and Romy Gonzalez are also in the picture here...
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 29, 2024 10:00:05 GMT -5
Pivetta and Bello are going to come back (prayers up to the Injured List Gods) and legitimately be the team's #3 and #4 starters Among position players, Duran leads the team at #61, followed by Casas at #85. There's no one else in the top 100. This has been a weird month. You must only be looking at qualified players, because Duran and Casas are only 4th and 6th on the team.
O'Neill 1.3 Abreu 0.7 Wong 0.7 Duran 0.7 Devers 0.5 Casas 0.5
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 29, 2024 9:56:50 GMT -5
There is starting to be a pile-up at 2B. Grissom is the starter, and then you have Hamilton and Valdez, who are both lefties but can also both only play 2B. And then Yorke, who's a righty and can only play 2B (or maybe LF I guess). Only Meidroth seems to have any real positional flexibility out of the whole group. He's probably the one I'd most want to keep at this point.
It's too bad Valdez got off to such a slow start this season; it would have been nice if he had helped his trade value. In any case, I would bet that at least one of these guys is gone by the trade deadline.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 29, 2024 9:32:41 GMT -5
The difference between Dalbec and Reyes to me is pretty simple. He's played well defensively and Reyes hasn't. Neither one of them can hit a lick, but if Dalbec accidentally puts the bat on the ball, his ball goes a lot further. Right now, if everything were a binary decision, I would play Dalbec over Reyes at every single position on the infield. Hamilton should never play another major league baseball game outside of being a pinch runner. Over Valdez is a no brainer as well, because Valdez can only play one position and he desperately needs to figure out his bat somewhere not on a major league roster. I can't stand Dalbec's at bats - but he is a far better player defensively than any of Reyes, Hamilton, or Valdez. EDIT: It's fair to say that Dalbec isn't playable - but I don't know how he is less playable than Reyes, Hamilton or Valdez at this point. EDIT 2: He's also the only one of the four that has put down a decent bunt this entire season. Is that even true, though? Bob has been steady, but he's had a handful of misplays, including two in back to back plays in this series (missed scoop, bobbled a ball when he had time to throw a runner out at the plate). Reyes' arm is clearly weaker, but he handles his glove well enough, and is totally fine for a start at 3B every few weeks. The difference in glove between him and Dalbec at either infield corner in occasional backup starts is less than the benefit from Hamilton as a pinch runner on a nightly basis, and the delta between Bob's bat and Reyes' bat (which feels gross to even say with how bad Reyes has been at the plate, but Dalbec has been even worse). Hamilton is not unplayable in the way Dalbec is. His bat has been normal bad, not a wet noodle, and he's probably average at 2B. It's shocking to me that people have turned on him this quickly compared to Dalbec given the much larger and multi-year sample of Dalbec sucking. Hamilton is in his age 26 season and hasn't had much MLB experience. Dalbec is in his age 29 season and has been producing steadily worse since the 2020 season. He's been awful since 2022, and in 2021 he was merely not very good. If we're just doing a normal boring WAR comparison, Hamilton has easily been the least bad of the four. If you're looking at projections, Hamilton and Valdez have the easy advantage over the other two. There are questions about what role you'd want to fill with that spot on the roster, but just thinking in binary terms ("bad" vs. "not bad") rather than gradations of badness is going to paint a distorted picture.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 29, 2024 9:18:58 GMT -5
If Reyes is fine once a week at SS, though, why not also at 3B? It wouldn't be a downgrade on Dalbec for Wong or Refsnyder to play a game at 1B every once in a while. Edit: And to be fair, Bob's D would look just as bad if he was playing mostly SS. Hamilton's glove wouldn't be an issue as a 2B/SS/emergency OF + pinch runner type. The difference between Dalbec and Reyes to me is pretty simple. He's played well defensively and Reyes hasn't. Neither one of them can hit a lick, but if Dalbec accidentally puts the bat on the ball, his ball goes a lot further. Right now, if everything were a binary decision, I would play Dalbec over Reyes at every single position on the infield. But Reyes has been a much better hitter than Dalbec: a 25 wRC+ vs. -3. That 28 point gap is the same as the career difference between Jackie Bradley Jr. and Xander Bogaerts. I'd expect both of them to positively regress somewhat, but I'd expect Reyes to continue to be a better hitter, and probably by a substantial margin.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 28, 2024 22:21:52 GMT -5
Chris Martin ER:
2023: 6 2024: 7
(But I think he's fine. He was never gonna keep up last year's pace, and his peripherals still look good.)
In other news, Devers' OBP is up to .395. Nice to see him being more selective this year.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 28, 2024 19:02:39 GMT -5
It’s Sunday night and another reminder Dave Bush was a terrible pitching coach (or Bailey is really that good) That makes Crawford and Pivetta having breakthroughs last season even more impressive if they had to overcome Bush's terribleness.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 28, 2024 13:15:20 GMT -5
Through 90 PA at AAA, Meidroth's BB and K numbers are pretty wild. He's at an 8.9% K rate, a stat which stabilizes around 60 PA. BB rate stabilizes around 120 PA, but he's at 21% now; if he doesn't take a single walk in his next 30 PAs he'd still have about a 16% BB rate when he gets to 120.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 28, 2024 10:28:09 GMT -5
Rightly or wrongly, between the Cooper trade (which was basically free) and DFAing Joely, Breslow is showing a lot more decisiveness than Chaim probably would have early on in the year. In years prior we probably role with internal options at 1B and wait longer before cutting Joely. Craig not trying to wait weeks to fix these issues They cut Travis Shaw in 2022 after 7 games.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 28, 2024 10:12:04 GMT -5
It's hard to get excited about a guy who the Cubs gave away for a bag of beans. It's not that hard to get excited about upgrading from horrendous to average. Yeah, people tend to flatten out their evaluations to where bad = bad, but replacing a truly atrocious player can be a huge boost. The difference between a 20 wRC+ and a 100 wRC+ is the same as the difference between Sandy Leon (career 56 wRC+) and Vladimir Guerrero (136).
Meanwhile, with Grissom set to replace Valdez/Reyes, and with things looking generally good with Wong, Abreu, O'Neill, Duran, and Yoshida, this seems like it could be a pretty good lineup even before Casas gets back. (Cue the injury cart...)
|
|
|