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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 21, 2021 18:33:25 GMT -5
Does that include him already with strikeouts in more than 1/3 of his PA's? I guess he didn't look lost in all of those? Yes, it includes him striking out that much. He was always going to strike out that much. That may not be guaranteed. He's brought it down to, as you say, about a third of the time. But it was much higher, and over 40% last year. I think he may get under 30% this season as he figures out what pitchers are planning for him.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 21, 2021 13:09:20 GMT -5
All of which comes down to changing his approach. That was one of the narratives around his coming to the Sox. Cora has a reputation for working with players. Now's the time to see how this plays out with Cordero.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 20, 2021 13:23:59 GMT -5
They might look for it, but can they find it to get solid contact off it??
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 20, 2021 12:20:08 GMT -5
He was one of the nice pickups last year, a season that, with trades, the Rule 5 draft, and the scouring of the waiver wires, was filled with them. I've always wondered if there was unaccounted for value floating around in MLB, comparable to what Belichick digs up year after year in football. Sure seems that way. Here's the graphic version of those numbers. Stellar stuff for someone who doesn't strike all that many batters out (click to enlarge):
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 20, 2021 11:02:49 GMT -5
He may even eclipse the old man. His father could hit anything that wasn't underground or ten feet over his head so he swung at all of it. He made a lot of solid contact without a great walk rate. Junior is much more discerning, which may make him even more dangerous.
I've watched a few of their games and, sure enough, pitching is where they are lacking. But Ryu is as good as he's ever been, just as Hatfield says. He sets batters up and knocks them down over and over again.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 20, 2021 8:35:45 GMT -5
Fangraphs has the Sox along with the Dodgers at the top of MLB heep and they really like the bullpen. That's before yesterday's game: They have them with a FIP- of 72. It's the site's first power rankings of the season. blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-week-1/
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 20, 2021 0:55:16 GMT -5
Hey man, sure Franchy struck out against a position player, and yeah he might have gotten a scorer’s break on a groundball to Abreu, but on the upside, he did reach the outfield. And he kept his K rate to 50%! That is the story of this game. If only Franchy were as good as Christian Vasquez. Man, that guy can hit. Vasquez after his age 27 season had a career .246 .296 .335 .632 mark. It's Va zquez, and where did you get those numbers?? His age 28-30 seasons combine for a .278/.326/.472 slash line - that's .798 not .632, so he's been one of the best hitting catchers in the majors. Yes, he can hit.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 19, 2021 15:35:12 GMT -5
You beat me to it. I was going to mention that after the two losses this weekend and today's win they were down to 105 wins.
Edit: I'll add that rumors of the death of Tampa Bay were greatly exaggerated. There is, however, a serious funk taking hold in the Bronx.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 19, 2021 13:21:29 GMT -5
Three things: Perez is fine as a 5th starter; Whitlock belongs much higher up in the starter foodchain (eventually); why should Eovaldi be result-conscious in a blowout?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 19, 2021 13:16:46 GMT -5
The guy is so ridiculously effective. He has a great arsenal, he hits his spots, and he seems to know exactly what he wants to do.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 19, 2021 11:20:46 GMT -5
It's a great way to endear yourself to the pitching staff.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 19, 2021 11:04:16 GMT -5
LaRussa is a jerk for doing this to Giolito. He should have pulled him when it was obvious it wasn't his day.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 18, 2021 12:03:11 GMT -5
That is baseball, and the new baseball also. That first bomb just died at the fence. Just as some of the team is over-performing early in the season, it's guaranteed that there are players under-performing. We all know that, right? Nothing has stabilized and won't for a while. As for the 5-inning pitcher stints, that was absolutely to be expected. It's a holdover from what was a terribly twisted season. They have to be loath to overwork guys early what with the cold and the virus hangover. That should change as the weather warms. Is it guaranteed? I think that is actually the question. Who on the team is *under*producing? Verdugo’s numbers will improve, but even with lower BA etc., he has not been underproducing. Kiké is about on career pace. Who is the candidate for a big production bump? Put differently, of the guys off to rough starts, it isn’t like any are just missing or getting unlucky. There is no guarantee at all that Dalbec, Franchy, Renfroe, or Marwin are going to flip a switch. Nor is there a guarantee that Pivetta’s command will improve. I think the odds favor *someone* heating up — at least getting a bit productive. But to me the key question to the whole season is precisely that “guarantee” — can the Sox have more balance as the season progresses? Yes it is guaranteed. The team is 14 games into the season. Dalbec, Hernandez, and Renfroe are all going to rise and I expect Verdugo will go higher also. That's just as Martinez, Arroyo, Vazquez and Bogaerts will drop. You seem to be missing the point. Statistically, nothing we're seeing is going to stay the same. Their will be regression on both ends. There always is.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 18, 2021 10:36:22 GMT -5
That is baseball, and the new baseball also. That first bomb just died at the fence.
Just as some of the team is over-performing early in the season, it's guaranteed that there are players under-performing. We all know that, right? Nothing has stabilized and won't for a while. As for the 5-inning pitcher stints, that was absolutely to be expected. It's a holdover from what was a terribly twisted season. They have to be loath to overwork guys early what with the cold and the virus hangover. That should change as the weather warms.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 18, 2021 10:25:05 GMT -5
The NY Yuckies are 5-9 and have the lowest winning percentage in the AL 👍🏻😀 I've peeked in on a few of their games. Get beyond Cole and there's a steep dropoff, and they're not a young team. Michael Kay and his color sidekick are all bluster and pain. Kay uses his overwrought baritone to bludgeon the team for their play up to now. He's some sort of dark lord from a Faustian baseball opera. The team is too good to swirl around in the bottom of the barrel, but till then it's great fun.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 17, 2021 19:47:07 GMT -5
Are we in agreement that Barnes' ERA will not be 0.00 this year (or any year)? So what better time to take the foot off the gas?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 17, 2021 18:09:01 GMT -5
La Russa has a gnome-like quality as time goes on... Maybe it's the mask.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 15, 2021 11:56:16 GMT -5
I don't understand why anyone cares about the ESPN power rankings. It's not like they're hating on the Red Sox. Coming into the year the Red Sox were supposed to be a middle of the pack team. They've got off to a hot start so they're up to 12 in their rankings and I'm sure they'll be even higher if they continue to play well. Seems like a silly thing to get upset about. It's just a general gripe I have with outfits that cast themselves as professionals. If the evidence for that claim isn't there then they need to be called out. The Sox had a top offense last year, even with Martinez under-performing. What they were missing entirely, and probably purposefully given the imposed spending constraints, was pitching. They have that now and it isn't rocket science to change the narrative to reflect that.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 15, 2021 11:49:45 GMT -5
Interesting that Gonsalves is being stretched out as a starter. So, the team has an array of starters - in the majors, and guys coming up in the minors - as well as potential starters with Whitlock at the top of that list. That's the one commodity that teams can never have or get enough of. The short answer to this is that having one more starter type only gives the FO even more options either in-house, or on the trade market. I'm continually impressed by the level of contingency planning and forethought they are bringing to the table.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 15, 2021 11:07:33 GMT -5
Years ago when I was working as an analyst at a Gvt lab, we had one scientist who was very high on the emerging paradigm of artificial intelligence - machine learning these days. His boss asked me if we needed artificial intelligence. I told him, jokingly, that we needed any intelligence we could get our hands on. If they bothered to ask me, which they won't, I'd tell ESPN the same thing.
Add: Their one-paragraph take is devoid of just about any useful information. You would think that an outfit like ESPN could get some of their people to do serious work around those ratings. But you'd be wrong.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 15, 2021 9:58:33 GMT -5
If they're .500 rest of the way that gets them to the playoffs. They're playing over their heads right now but that doesn't mean they're bad. I'm not sold on this pitching staff at all but the lineup looks like its good. .500 the rest of the way only gets them to 84 wins. That's the arithmetic. That seems pessimistic to me. I think the team is better than that.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 15, 2021 0:24:52 GMT -5
So you think they're a .500 team going forward. I think that's pessimistic.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 14, 2021 20:28:54 GMT -5
12 runners LOB, including 1st and 3rd with nobody out in the last inning. Then a leadoff walk from Barnes. You thought you knew how that one was supposed to end, but they pulled out a win. There's a statistical element to baseball that we all need to move in with. Call it karma, randomness, luck, whatever. There will be days when players smash balls up the middle only to have them end up in the pitcher's glove, and other days when pitchers can't find the plate and it's a conga line. Sometimes it's the same day!
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 14, 2021 11:04:11 GMT -5
There are a few reasons for my optimism.
He and Martinez are very similar. They are big guys with lots of power and long swings. What he needs to figure out is what Martinez has mastered and can teach him: how to use pitch patterns to figure out what to try to do with the ball. Martinez is a master of that, consistently driving balls on the outer half the other way, and then turning on pitches middle in when they're made available and he's prepared. So yes having him sit at Martinez' feet to hear how insanely that guy preps for a pitch sequence will be very important.
Separate from that is his athleticism. He looks in really good physical condition, and he's much faster than I thought he was. The fact that he beat out what should have been an easy double play to give the Sox a chance at winning a game was a revelation. And he beat it easily. He plays both infield corners and he's got a cannon arm. It's easy to imagine rotating him along with Devers and Casas in a 1b/DH/3b role if it all plays out, something I've suggested previously.
There are some potential pitfalls in that analysis of course. I think he's got a high ceiling but a few hills to climb to get there.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 14, 2021 10:29:32 GMT -5
What it will change is the muscle memory needed to get a certain break at a specific point in the trajectory. Should be interesting.
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