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Post by Oregon Norm on May 15, 2024 10:04:46 GMT -5
Same with Campbell. He was lights out till the injury then he blew up.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 14, 2024 19:14:15 GMT -5
The ump owes Pivetta two of those $h!tyy strikes he called on Grissom.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 4, 2024 10:41:54 GMT -5
Yeah, that's what his setup reminds of. What's impressive, probably because he's older, is how repeatable both his windup and non-windup delivery are.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 4, 2024 8:50:06 GMT -5
This left me wondering how often Bogaerts will be playing second. The talk is of rotating position players through the DH spot and his name was mentioned as part of that.
His numbers are down again this season from his glory days with the Sox when he carried an OPS+ of around 130 year after year. Tough time for him.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 2, 2024 12:51:51 GMT -5
It's just as simple to conjecture that the team needs players with certain skills, that they give the players they have a chance to show what they can do in those roles, and that they move on if they're not getting what they need from them. And that's all it is, a conjecture.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 1, 2024 23:37:51 GMT -5
Again, these are not journalists. They are not vying for a seat at the table with Gammons. They use the media as a bullhorn and simply move on to the next bit of noise making. It would be honorable for Abraham to take responsibility for this and other takes, but I'm not holding my breath.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 30, 2024 13:23:40 GMT -5
"There's no justification for not spending $10-15 million extra dollars to get a couple more wins". I don't know how many times this was repeated this offseason, but it was a lot; all the while using projections from ZiPS and Steamer and everywhere else. You even had people specifically saying why they don't like such and such projection. There wouldn't be as many people resistant to learning about statistics or accepting them, if there weren't so many people using them to hammer people over their heads about how right they are. It never starts out as a criticism of the projection, it always starts out with someone misusing them and then people reduce everything to the lowest common denominator and try to pick apart the projection because it is the lowest hanging fruit to say, Jorge Soler. I'm totally OK with criticizing misuse of projections. But the braggadocio about projections being wrong is so misguided. Given the wildly varying estimates of those systems, it's essential that they be seen for what they are, not for what people want them to be. And there's no way to slice it or dice it: Steamer's numbers are nearly useless for proposed roster decisions. The systems using nearest neighbor analysis perform better, but they also have a dynamic that needs to be understood. That is my point.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 30, 2024 12:37:45 GMT -5
I can't believe we're still arguing about this in the year of our lord 2024. Criticizing the projections for missing on players A, B and C is about as valuable a contribution to internet discourse as criticizing the weatherman for blowing the forecast. It shows a fundamental misunderstanding of statistics and probability that I had empathy for back in the 2002-ish Moneyball days, but now, more than 20 years later, most of which has been spent on this very forum, is just boring and played out reflexive tribalism. I don't even have it in me to try and provide a good faith explainer anymore. I get it, you're tired of the nerds being the smartest guys in the room and making you feel inadequate, so you beat your chests every time a projection system fails (which they do an overwhelming majority of the time). It's just not an interesting discussion anymore. /rant See above.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 30, 2024 12:36:30 GMT -5
There were posts early on comparing projections across teams. Given the error bars associated with those - that range of projections - the comparison is not very useful. Again, change analysis would seem to be the best way to utilize these. I'm also of the notion that it's long past time for all the projection systems and the sites that tout them, such as Fangraphs, to include graphical displays to show that range of possible outcomes. Stacast leads the way here. This isn't the 1950s. There are plenty of tools for doing that. What is change analysis? How would you use projections to do it? See SoxStats above: By determining the change in a performance index - the increase in WRC+ in his post. As the season progresses and more data is accumulated, it re-centers the distribution and tightens up the projection. A video of that change would be a nice visual I think.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 30, 2024 11:50:30 GMT -5
There were posts early on comparing projections across teams. Given the error bars associated with those - that range of projections - the comparison is not very useful. Again, change analysis would seem to be the best way to utilize these. I'm also of the notion that it's long past time for all the projection systems and the sites that tout them, such as Fangraphs, to include graphical displays to show that range of possible outcomes. Stacast leads the way here. This isn't the 1950s. There are plenty of tools for doing that.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 30, 2024 11:29:31 GMT -5
Theo as baseball diplomat. A lot of dancing around but a recognition that there's a tension between optimizing performance, and burning through pitching talent. The MLBPA will probably put MLB on notice that this is impacting pitcher valuation at some point. I mean, but what are we supposed to do? Ban some pitching mechanics, like that extreme sidearm delivery? I would be up for that! Really good question for which I have no ready answer. I'm sure that will be a serious sticking point. But with money on the line its certain to come up I believe.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 30, 2024 10:26:48 GMT -5
Theo as baseball diplomat. A lot of dancing around but a recognition that there's a tension between optimizing performance, and burning through pitching talent. The MLBPA will probably put MLB on notice that this is impacting pitcher valuation at some point.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 30, 2024 8:10:38 GMT -5
That number was on the original Fangraph projections. It's now changed. If these systems are iterative, re-estimating over time, all well and good. We all need to understand that's how it works rather than give them significance they don't deserve.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 30, 2024 0:55:03 GMT -5
ZiPS thinks O'Neill is all the way back to his 2021 self offensively, projecting 143 the rest of the way. Not to pick on you but... The set of projections originally listed on Fangraphs for Crawford, Houck, O'Neill, Abreu and Wong - to name a handful - were off by so much as to suggest pure guesswork. To give one really egregious example: Steamer projected Wong at .1 WAR for the year. Pro-rated, he should have accumulated less than 2 hundredths of a win at this juncture. The site currently has has him at .7 and Steamer (grudgingly?) upped his guesstimated production to .5 for the year. So he'd better get cracking and lose some value, right?? The same sort of analysis shows large undervaluation for the other names, and via the other projection systems as well. My point is simple: the systems are more useful for the sort of change analysis SoxStats highlights than they are as reliable projections of performance. Caveat emptor. There were posts throwing those numbers around as if they were some sort of ceiling and they are not.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 29, 2024 13:53:44 GMT -5
How serious is this injury. Honestly so upset with how he was benched then comes back has a good game then gets hurt and is treated like he's the worst OFer in baseball yet SS gets a pass on putting absolute trash there defensively at the most important defensive pos. Have you been watching the games at all?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 28, 2024 14:07:28 GMT -5
Yes and no. I mean, it was absolutely ridiculous how long it took for him to DFA Braiser. or does the fact that he was good immediately upon going to the Dodgers suggest the FO was right about him and the coaches were failing ...or that relievers, given their usage patterns, are extremely volatile creatures. Brasier is currently at negative WAR, with a 4.63 ERA and an even higher FIP.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 24, 2024 22:46:45 GMT -5
The combination of speed, glove, and arm are not that common. As an above average SS - and that's his floor to my mind - if he gets to .250/.300/.450 which I think he can, he's a 4-5 WAR player. That'll work.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 24, 2024 21:25:07 GMT -5
Is that supposed to be 2023 & 2024?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 24, 2024 20:50:50 GMT -5
Well that was insane. Starting to think Rafaela might be able to handle the infield after all. I don't think he was waiting for you to punch that ticket. There were a few bizarre takes on the board about his defense when he'd played two games at the position. That's a play only a handful of shortstops could make, and one of them is out for the year.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 22, 2024 16:32:09 GMT -5
On that final high strike to Soto, one of the best hitters in the game looked completely over-matched. Won't see that very often.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 22, 2024 14:50:20 GMT -5
Just watched the end of the NY - Oakland game. A lunchtime treat! The Athletics are by no means a dead letter. Mason Miller, for one, is just about the most fearsome reliever I've watched this year. After they went ahead on a 2-run HR in the 9th, he wasted no time K-ing the side: Volpe, Soto, and Judge went down swinging.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 21, 2024 13:59:17 GMT -5
He's been nothing but "sick". Off of the limited number of games so far he appears to be a phenomenal outfielder. He's got his timing down at the plate also.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 20, 2024 23:40:47 GMT -5
The “front office isn’t trying to win” Red Sox are an inning or so away from having a better record than the Dodgers. Early I know, and I wouldn’t bet on that continuing by any means, but that’s not the point I’m trying to make anyway. The Dodgers shelled out over $1,200,000,000 in contracts in the offseason and have a 12-11 record (1/2 game worse than the Red Sox 12-10). Lmao Very early of course, and it will change, but right now every team in the AL East has a better record than all the teams in the NL West.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 20, 2024 22:19:30 GMT -5
The report at MLB.com is about pain in the left ribcage. MRI comes next.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 20, 2024 10:09:24 GMT -5
There were posts on the board suggesting that the endless search for passable, mediocre, or just plain bad talent to fill out the staff was not a great idea. And there were posters eager to see what the existing talent might bring. They are for the most part younger and they needed a chance. Plow through the archives if you need a refresher.
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