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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 16, 2015 15:06:44 GMT -5
Reports last week were that they were talking to Chris Young about a role which was more significant than a 4th OFer I remember that.....If JBJ is in fact traded, we could sign Young AND Parra to be the 3rd & 4th OF....good platoon partners...Holt/Shaw 5th OF. DD's not looking to add a "Wheeler type". The same way he wasn't looking to add a Drew Storen type. He's looking ELITE, because we have some of those potential next level guys regardless. JBJ would go in a trade for a Harvey type. And it'd take some huge other names in the minors to pair with it. In recent years Cherington has been more than happy to fill the pen and rotation with "upside" guys, guys that cost 60-70% what elite guys cost hoping to get extra value. DD seems hellbent on adding elite known talent (at least at this point of the offseason) and is okay paying a premium for it. His first calls were about Sale, Gray, Chapman and Kimbrel if that tells you anything. If he is forced to send some big names like JBJ and Owens and Benintendi to the Mets for Harvey, I absolutely think Gordon will be in play as a FA signing. We saw John Henry & Co stretch before 2007, where they went hard in the offseason to correct a few down years.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 16, 2015 2:56:08 GMT -5
There's plenty of those 4th OF types on the FA market. The FA market next year for starters is basically Strasburg and that's it. Rizzo of the Nats said no one has called on Strasburg yet, so it's safe to say Dombrowski is not interested. This is an extremely long way of saying that DD probably wouldn't move Porcello. Once he got back to throwing his heavy sinker last year Porcello was great. Something like a 3.2 ERA in his last two months. They view him as an asset, not something to be moved. Not arguing that Porcello won't be decent going forward. I just don't ever see him as more than a #3 starter. He would be intriguing to some other teams. If we are to sign a guy like price we will have to shed some payroll somewhere. The idea of trading Porcello is to kill 2 birds with one stone. It creates the payroll flexibility to make a run a price and allows the team acquiring Porcello a chance to open a bit of payroll to add a quality pitcher. Yeah I'm not so sure how much payroll they'll have to shed. Miley is moveable at any time, Buch, Koji, Ortiz, Hanigan could all be off the books after 2016. Luxury tax jumps up in 2017. Plus with the dodgers going ape**** on payroll it kind of let fans know that these teams can afford to pay extra tax lol.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 16, 2015 2:48:09 GMT -5
We should throw out the notion of him being a bad left fielder. Never should have went there. It has skewed our minds. Short has passed him by a LONG time ago. Okay, so the last we've seen Hanley at an acceptable position was 3rd base for the Dodgers in 2014. What happens to bad 3rd baseman? They go to first, and generally extend their careers a bit because the position is easier. With that in mind, look at the defensive rating of Hanley at 3rd in 2014. He's given a rating of -6.1. Bad. Not excruciating, but below average. So you move him to first, where maybe his skills will translate from 3rd, and he'll improve a bit. Maybe just slightly under average. -3 or -4 maybe? Want to know who fangraphs also rated a -4 at 1st? Mike Napoli in 2014 who no one complained about. Nap hit about .250/.370/.420 that year with 17 bombs. And with that below average defense, he was worth 2.4 WAR p.s. in 2013 Hanley had a slightly above ave rage defensive rating at 3rd. The other name given Dick Stuart by the always supportive Boston media? Stonefingers. But he would have been worse than Hanley at SS and 3B, so Hanley probably won't be aetting the bar. In fact, he could be average at most things, like catching LD, fielding GB, making putouts, even tough ones, on throws from Pedey, XB and Panda, and perhaps only mess up the occasional complicated maneuver. IMO alot of that will be determined by the agility and flexibility restored this offaeason with the trainer and in the DR with Papi. That pic he posted has me encouraged about him at 1B, and moreso knowing Travis Shaw is around in late inninga and vs RHP. Yeah I mean we can see how he looks in spring and april and may, cause if he's healthy, he'll hit. If he's a mess at 1st and shows no improvement, and guys are botching throws cause they're worried they have to be perfect, then is the time to start thinking about eating that contract. Plus who knows, maybe Vmart will blow out his knee a month in, or Cruz suffers a grade 3 hamstring injury. Boom, suddenly, Hanley is an asset.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 16, 2015 2:42:16 GMT -5
If Price and Greinke want NL, you gotta think Cueto definitely wants NL. The guy is the one pitcher we've seen VISIBLY shaken by home crowds Toronto and Pitt in the last two years. He's probably terrified of Boston. Gammons points out he has a 5.56 ERA in 6 AL hitter's parks, most of which are in the AL East. I honestly don't think Cueto even wants to come to Boston, and I think with SF missing on Price and Greinke, he is going to be at the top of the Giants wishlist in that huge ballpark. Can't argue that, it's just that with- 1-with what DD has recently said about signing a top end starter 2-already trading a couple top chips 3-potential lack of availability of a top pitcher through a trade 4-deepest FA class of pitchers ever 5- are obvious need of a front line starter I can't see the FO not making a serious run at at least one of these guys. Impossible to say who they like best but we do know they will cover that 12th pick and DD likes hard throwers. Price / Cueto. Do ya just take Price on JH yacht (did he sell the thing??) and let him fill out the blank cheque. I think they're going to be heavily involved in both Price and Greinke. DD does not seem like a half-measure kind of guy.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 16, 2015 2:39:17 GMT -5
I also don't think Sam Travis is the key here. The Braves don't have the DH so trading for Hanley and Travis seems counterproductive. Also, Sam has been raking but I don't think anybody projects him to be as good as Freeman has been. Career OPS+ 126 at very young ages. Hanley and Freeman both have OPS+ of 129 on their careers. Freeman had a def rating last year of -3.9. And -11.4 in 2014. Hanley was -6ish in 2014 at 3rd.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 16, 2015 2:34:52 GMT -5
We should throw out the notion of him being a bad left fielder. Never should have went there. It has skewed our minds. Short has passed him by a LONG time ago. Okay, so the last we've seen Hanley at an acceptable position was 3rd base for the Dodgers in 2014. What happens to bad 3rd baseman? They go to first, and generally extend their careers a bit because the position is easier. With that in mind, look at the defensive rating of Hanley at 3rd in 2014. He's given a rating of -6.1. Bad. Not excruciating, but below average. So you move him to first, where maybe his skills will translate from 3rd, and he'll improve a bit. Maybe just slightly under average. -3 or -4 maybe? Want to know who fangraphs also rated a -4 at 1st? Mike Napoli in 2014 who no one complained about. Nap hit about .250/.370/.420 that year with 17 bombs. And with that below average defense, he was worth 2.4 WAR p.s. in 2013 Hanley had a slightly above average defensive rating at 3rd. I love Hanley and I was in factor of signing him but I'm scared. His whole non-schelant way of playing scared me at 1B. Not sure he can stay focused to be in on all those plays It's a real concern. He dogged it out there a lot. He was also really out of wack, and had a shoulder injury that was probably worse than we thought. (Sox medical staff is hit or miss. We put Varvaro on waivers last year and let the Cubs claim him only to then find he had a torn flexor tendon later). When we talk about effort, Hanley put it in before the season. He put on HUGE amounts of muscle. That takes work and determination. He's a career infielder normally tracking ground balls suddenly trying to judge fly balls in the weirdest left field in baseball. (We saw Carl freakin' Crawford deteriorate defensively in our left field). It was a pretty big transition. He's never going to be a 110% effort guy. But he looks already like he's taking the thinning down order seriously this offseason, and moving him back to the infield will be something that is much more comfortable for him. First requires a much similar skillset to what he had at third. I'm not super hopeful about it, but I also wouldn't be shocked to see him play a serviceable first base for 120ish games next year. Then again, I don't think we have much of a choice unless we eat a massive chunk of that contract.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 16, 2015 2:26:39 GMT -5
Any 4rth outfielders we could swing for Porcello?? Maybe somebody with 2 years and 15-20 mil left that isn't needed on his team anymore. It would fill a hole for us and open a slot and some payroll for David Price(unlikely but??) There's plenty of those 4th OF types on the FA market. The FA market next year for starters is basically Strasburg and that's it. Rizzo of the Nats said no one has called on Strasburg yet, so it's safe to say Dombrowski is not interested. This is an extremely long way of saying that DD probably wouldn't move Porcello. Once he got back to throwing his heavy sinker last year Porcello was great. Something like a 3.2 ERA in his last two months. They view him as an asset, not something to be moved.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 16, 2015 1:23:56 GMT -5
If Price and Greinke want NL, you gotta think Cueto definitely wants NL. The guy is the one pitcher we've seen VISIBLY shaken by home crowds Toronto and Pitt in the last two years. He's probably terrified of Boston. Gammons points out he has a 5.56 ERA in 6 AL hitter's parks, most of which are in the AL East.
I honestly don't think Cueto even wants to come to Boston, and I think with SF missing on Price and Greinke, he is going to be at the top of the Giants wishlist in that huge ballpark.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 16, 2015 1:14:55 GMT -5
I'm not one that believes that anybody can play first base and I see no reason to believe that Hanley, a historically bad SS and LF will be able to make the transition. We might have to dust off Dick Stewart's nickname, Dr. Strangeglove. The only ray of hope here is that his bat returns enough to compensate. We should throw out the notion of him being a bad left fielder. Never should have went there. It has skewed our minds. Short has passed him by a LONG time ago. Okay, so the last we've seen Hanley at an acceptable position was 3rd base for the Dodgers in 2014. What happens to bad 3rd baseman? They go to first, and generally extend their careers a bit because the position is easier. With that in mind, look at the defensive rating of Hanley at 3rd in 2014. He's given a rating of -6.1. Bad. Not excruciating, but below average. So you move him to first, where maybe his skills will translate from 3rd, and he'll improve a bit. Maybe just slightly under average. -3 or -4 maybe? Want to know who fangraphs also rated a -4 at 1st? Mike Napoli in 2014 who no one complained about. Nap hit about .250/.370/.420 that year with 17 bombs. And with that below average defense, he was worth 2.4 WAR p.s. in 2013 Hanley had a slightly above average defensive rating at 3rd.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 16, 2015 1:02:25 GMT -5
Fans would burn down the stadium if they replaced Freeman with Hanley Ramirez haha. Not to mention you'd have to probably pay 13-15 mill of Hanley's contract yearly. So between Freeman and Hanley, you'd have about 25 million devoted to your theoretical 1B this year. And then 42.5-43 for the next 3 years when Freeman's contract spikes. I just don't see it. Right now we don't know what Hanley does at 1B. It's not likely, but maybe he'll be okay. Shaw performed admiarbly there for league minimum and Sam Travis is raking in the minors. Unless you have some GM with an ACE that has a HUGE BONER for Sam Travis or Travis Shaw, I don't see how you don't add an insane amount of payroll (with also adding an ACE thru FA, the idea being that Freeman makes Shaw and Travis expendable due to them being relegated to depth options). Otherwise, you sell off a sizable chunk of the farm to offset the cost of Freeman/Hanley dump. That cost controlled starter will cost you a few of the Swihart, Benintendi, Owens, Espinoza, etc. I've seen statements to the effect that we might increase payroll this coming season. The Braves replaced Simmons with one year of Aybar, 2 good pitching prospects and cash. There would need to be a ton of cash but a top prospect doesn't seem likely in this situation since Boston's back isn't against the wall. The Braves aren't going to win anything for a few years, dumping salary isn't unusual. You also have to consider other clubs. Most of the big spenders seem set at first base. We might have the best hand and it's certainly worth kicking the tires without offering the farm. (I'm not one that thinks DD will blow up the farm unless we have an outrageous offer). We're already at nearly 177 million in payroll, 12 until cap. So, adding a FA starter and a 4th OF sits anywhere from 25-37 million on top of that. And that's without any extra bullpen work. I'm already considering this team being about 20 mill over the cap.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 15, 2015 23:25:54 GMT -5
With Freddie Freeman being reported as available, I'm pretty sure that DD will be kicking the tires here. It's a shame Tehran had such a bad year (looks like an injury suspect), that could have been an interesting trade expansion. None of the Braves starters this year were worth considering, their future is in the farm although it's interesting how a decent staff fell apart so fast. Our proposal would have to include Hanley and a boatload of cash plus other considerations. Given Atlanta's Simmons trade, Marrero seems like a natural fit here. Fans would burn down the stadium if they replaced Freeman with Hanley Ramirez haha. Not to mention you'd have to probably pay 13-15 mill of Hanley's contract yearly. So between Freeman and Hanley, you'd have about 25 million devoted to your theoretical 1B this year. And then 42.5-43 for the next 3 years when Freeman's contract spikes. I just don't see it. Right now we don't know what Hanley does at 1B. It's not likely, but maybe he'll be okay. Shaw performed admiarbly there for league minimum and Sam Travis is raking in the minors. Unless you have some GM with an ACE that has a HUGE BONER for Sam Travis or Travis Shaw, I don't see how you don't add an insane amount of payroll (with also adding an ACE thru FA, the idea being that Freeman makes Shaw and Travis expendable due to them being relegated to depth options). Otherwise, you sell off a sizable chunk of the farm to offset the cost of Freeman/Hanley dump. That cost controlled starter will cost you a few of the Swihart, Benintendi, Owens, Espinoza, etc.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 15, 2015 23:17:36 GMT -5
If you *must* target another reliever, don't look to Chapman. Don't sign O'Day who mostly likely doesn't want to go to a team where he's pitching the 6th or 7th inning anyway.
Look to the Brewers, a team that has stated time and time again they are willing to make some trades. Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress are too nice controllable guys who can grab some strikeouts, but won't command a premium like some flashier names. Depends on what they want. It's a organization that's not quite rebuilding but not quite competing either, so their needs are more elastic.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 15, 2015 23:07:18 GMT -5
I have no respect for anyone who bashes other people's ideas incessantly but fails to propose any of their own. Right now? The best way to complete this club is to sign David Price by absolutely blowing the Cubs out of the water. If the Dodgers get involved in Price, try to scoop up Greinke with the Allen Baird/Bannister connections. Sign a Chris Young/Rajai Davis type for 2/12-2/15 depending on the guy. If that doesn't happen, look into Mike Leake or Kazmir for some savings. If those seem unsatisfactory, lube up for a Jose Quintana/Carrasco trade. Quintana is the better match, but it'll probably take Swihart + Owens + others. See how trade market develops once FA starters start coming off the board. Leave the pen alone for now: Kimbrel, Koji, Taz, Varvaro (Kimbrel's successful setup man 2013 and 2014) Ross, Layne, Wright. Wright being out of options is tough, not sure what happens if he's not on major league roster. Throw Kelly in pen if Varvaro isn't ready or Wright/Ross look atrocious in spring. Potentially look into trading Miley or Kelly in spring depending on how things shake out. See how guys like Barnes/Hembree/Aro/Light look in spring training, make room for any standouts. Basically I don't want a ton of moves. I saw a team pitch and hit well for the final two months of the season. You have question marks in Vazquez and Pablo and Hanley, but it's not unreasonable to think that Hanley and Pablo won't be the same black holes they were last season. You would expect some correction back towards career numbers. At the end of the season last year we played good ball, and were missing Koji, Taz, Hanley, Pablo, and Christian Vazquez. These are significant upgrades. My offseason plan? Patience. We don't know what team this is yet, so blowing up the farm or ML roster makes little sense.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 15, 2015 22:45:24 GMT -5
The fact remains, we are DREAMERS. We love our prospects because they're compelling narratives. We follow kids from the draft to the major league playing field. It's what baseball is so successful at, making us buy into storylines that run decades.
But the majority of GMs are assembling talent TO KEEP THEIR JOBS. A losing season isn't a "bummer we'll get em' next year", like it is to us. They cannot play the lotto like we can. A guy like Jose Quintana is extremely valuable, not to mention Chris Sale. Known commodities are expensive because there are so few of them. And in roster building, you won't get many of them.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 15, 2015 22:40:44 GMT -5
Honestly, even that is probably too low. You'd probably have to offer Swihart and Owens and two more guys for Quintana.
It's been hinted that Sales price was essentially 3 of our foundational ML core (think Betts, Bogaerts, Erod, JBJ, Swihart) and another two minor leaguers
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 15, 2015 22:36:53 GMT -5
Everyone on this site has a wildly unrealistic take on the value of prospects. The amount of realistic trades that are posted on this forum are next to nil. These trades aren't made in a vaccuum. They're made in competition, and sometimes guys PAY large prices to sign a necessary piece early, so they can focus on other things. It's not easy to add ELITE relief and ELITE starting pitching in an offseason. DD's back is against the wall, and if he's being truthful and this is his one big trade, then everyone on this site should be wildly happy. Could he have gotten Kimbrel without giving up Allen? Yeah, maybe during the winter meetings a month from now. There's also a chance someone like the yankees, who offered Mateo, would jump back in and drive up the price or complicate things. I agree with a lot of your baseball opinions. Most of the trade proposal are unrealistic, and when I see some that make my eyes roll, I'll say something. I try not to be insulting. Lord knows I say enough stupid things. But I would ask you, instead of just being rude or shooting down the ideas, throw out some of your own. Put yourself out there. Make trade proposals that sound realistic to you. I do, and I get shot down too at times, and rightfully so (but without snark). The Kimbrel one is uncomfortable. And that's why it makes sense. Because it's not an armchair GM fantasy trade. I agree it should have been achievable without Allen. But not in this timeframe with Dombrowski's laundry list of problems to solve. A possible trade? Swihart, Brian Johnson, Raudes for Jose Quintana. And honestly, it would probably take throwing in a Basabe or Rijo as well. And that's only if the White Sox think Johnson is healthy. This is the cost for 5 years control of a 200IP sub 3.5 era pitcher. Would I love that trade? Not really, I'd be extremely extremely conflicted. Would I make that trade? I don't know. But it's REALISTIC. It's not Rick Porcello and Rusney Castillo for Matt Harvey
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 15, 2015 22:21:28 GMT -5
Margot, Guerra, Asuaje and Allen for Kimbrel Betts, Johnson, Owens, and Holt for Syndergaard Devers, Espinoza, Kopech, Ball, and Miley for Sale Rotation: Sale Syndergaard Buchholz Porcello Rodriguez Tawaza Kelly Uehara Barnes Kimbrel RF Moncada SS Bogaerts 2B Pedroia DH Ortiz 1B Ramirez 3B Sandoval C Swihart CF Bradley, Jr. LF Castillo Lol congratulations. You've decimated the farm system and left the team without a single worthwhile pitching prospect anywhere in the minors. You would be tarred and feathered and run out of boston.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 15, 2015 22:19:51 GMT -5
Players who are MORE important to their team than other teams generally don't get traded.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 15, 2015 22:18:47 GMT -5
They want to compete. If you'd do the deal in a heartbeat, that means it's not good. If you started that with Betts and Erod, then Dipoto would start talking to you. Odds are, even with what Felix is owed, you'd have to give up more. How did you calculate these "odds"? Past trades for "elite" starting pitching under control, rumored prices for other starters on the market etc. The fact DiPoto has an intimate knowledge of our system and has already made trades to help his team this year. You know, just generally not being a homer idiot who thinks a GM is going to chop a leg out from under his team for a few of our middling extraneous prospects. Felix is an institution on that team. He puts jerseys on fans back and puts asses in the seats. They have a damn section devoted to him. Get real people.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 15, 2015 22:03:18 GMT -5
Also, am I crazy to think that Margot, Guerra, Owens/Johnson and Marrero get you Strasburg? 1. Strasburg has 1 year left. 2. He had a meh injury-filled season. 3. He's a Boras client, so no extension. 4. No one trades for TWO minor league shortstops in the same deal. I know you probably are saying "well, umm Marrero can bridge the gap to Guerra in 2 years!" But that's not how anyone operates. They'd rather get some other useful piece that won't cannibalize others in the trade and find a shortstop somewhere else. 5. They have Trea Turner. So they probably want NO shortstops in this deal. edit: People need to start actually looking at what other teams WANT and NEED for their own clubs. Trades don't happen just by the Red Sox identifying their extraneous garbage and sending it elsewhere for who they want. It takes TWO TEAMS, with TWO NEEDS.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 15, 2015 21:50:42 GMT -5
Until either Papelbon or Drew Storen gets traded, we won't know the extent to which we got screwed by the Padres. That should come soon enough though. This is a joke. Red Sox do not want Papelbon back. He's 35 and they wouldn't be looking to extend him. Storen, while good, is not in Kimbrel's league. Both these guys have 1 year left. That, and with the pitching the Nationals have assembled, they probably want to compete. I.e. they're probably gonna want talent they can plug into the roster this year. So you can sit there and make this comment, if you're comfortable in giving up JBJ for 1 year of either Papelbon or Storen. I don't think Brock Holt gets it done.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 15, 2015 21:32:03 GMT -5
Probably get blasted for this, but with Seattle working on JBJ, any chance King Felix becomes part of a conversation? Could JBJ and one of Bucholz/Kelly/Miley be enough for Dipoto to at least talk? Obviously there would need to be more to the deal, but it gives Seattle a proven ML ready starter and CF. He would be selling low on Felix and would probably be hesitant to start his tenure by dealing Felix, but it would be interesting to see if he would entertain talks. They want to compete. If you'd do the deal in a heartbeat, that means it's not good. If you started that with Betts and Erod, then Dipoto would start talking to you. Odds are, even with what Felix is owed, you'd have to give up more.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 15, 2015 19:26:13 GMT -5
Mentioned in another thread that Wright might be out of options, so he would be part of the 'pen assuming that is the case. He takes the "Hembree" spot at the end of the 'pen in my scenario, if of course he doesn't win the 5th spot, which I think he will be in competition for, I just think Owens will beat him out. The likelihood that Owens is on the major league roster in any scenario to start year is at about 3%
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 15, 2015 19:03:02 GMT -5
Exactly. It's not who was traded, it's who's coming back. If we'd gotten 4 years of Danny Salazar for this package instead of three years of Craig Kimbrel, folks would have been applauding. And if it would have taken Chavis or Longhi instead of Asauje, folks still would have been applauding. Agreed. It's all about the return. Everyone on this site has a wildly unrealistic take on the value of prospects. The amount of realistic trades that are posted on this forum are next to nil. These trades aren't made in a vaccuum. They're made in competition, and sometimes guys PAY large prices to sign a necessary piece early, so they can focus on other things. It's not easy to add ELITE relief and ELITE starting pitching in an offseason. DD's back is against the wall, and if he's being truthful and this is his one big trade, then everyone on this site should be wildly happy. Could he have gotten Kimbrel without giving up Allen? Yeah, maybe during the winter meetings a month from now. There's also a chance someone like the yankees, who offered Mateo, would jump back in and drive up the price or complicate things.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 15, 2015 18:56:55 GMT -5
I thought I was clear: trading prospects for veterans is an extremely inefficient way of acquiring talent. Doing it occasionally is probably required. Doing it as often the as the Red Sox do it will eventually catch up with you. When do they do it that often? Cherington was a hoarder. This was the largest deal we've made since Adrian Gonzalez.
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