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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 13, 2015 1:36:09 GMT -5
An all glove/no bat OF is something which a lot of teams have in the minors or on their team. Such players are relatively available commodities. Is the upgrade from that guy to Castillo (the same guy but with the toolsy label and some latent upside) worth $10 million a year? Castillo isn't a bad contract, but that doesn't make him a tradeable one. Because a prospective trade partner isn't judging the value of the contract in a vacuum. They're comparing it to alternatives, and alternative ways to spend the money. I agree that Castillo's cost can be justified. I just have a hard time buying that a team wouldn't rather just use some replacement level type in AAA and spend the money elsewhere. I think you're exaggerating the degree to which teams can pull ~1.5 win players out of a hat. There's a tendency to lump together all below-average guys in one category, but Castillo is a good bit better than the Darnell McDonalds of the world. For instance, Castillo's not a no-bat guy-- he makes enough contact and has enough power to be a respectable (if below-average) hitter. Guys who can do that and play average-to-better CF defense don't grow on trees. We seen him appear in 16 games at center. And please point out to me where this "enough power" is. His terrible iso? His god-awful slugging percentage? I'm confused, cause I haven't seen it. And they sorta do grow on trees lol. Franklin Gutierrez just signed a 1 year deal. Rajai Davis will probably get a 2 year deal. De Aza will probably sign a 1 year deal. Dexter Fowler is a far better hitter than Rusney and might not get a 5/60 deal. Rasmus took his QO on a 1 year deal. Austin Jackson might get 3/30. Parra played some center this year. What will he get? 3/24? Denard Span is out there too. Victorino will probably get a 1 year deal and could probably play center if healthy.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 13, 2015 1:15:15 GMT -5
Extending Mookie Betts should be their first priority. Determining if they can extend Xander Bogaerts, and if they want to, should be number two. Improving the bullpen should be number three. Extensions can easily happen during the season. Hopefully Dombrowski isn't wasting time on that right now.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 13, 2015 0:41:24 GMT -5
I'd go with this: Sign Heyward 8/176 Sign Tony Sipp 2/12 Re-sign Hill 2/10 plus incentives for IP over 100 Trade Miley/Marrero for Aroldis Chapman Trade Buchholz, JBJ, Barnes, Rijo, Layne for Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer Sign AAA OF AND SP ROTATION Carrasco Porcello E rod Hill One of Kelly/wright/Bauer Depth- Owens, Johnson, AAA sign Reds are rebuilding. The likelihood they want a pitcher on a 2/15.5 or 3/27.5 deal is sorta non-existant. Marrero not enough to get it done, he has a .622 ops in what amounts to a full major league season at AAA (152 games). Unsure why the Indians would trade both Carrasco and Bauer, not to mention in the same deal, not to mention for that return. Also not sure why you trade for Trevor Bauer and then he's not slotted into your rotation.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 12, 2015 21:53:37 GMT -5
Sign Price or Greinke (depending on the contract outlooks of each), look to trade from prospect redundancy and possibly include Rusney or JBJ in a trade for another high quality starter, if either of them are traded, look to sign Alex Gordon or Jason Heyward (dependent on which makes more sense for the price). Improve the bullpen, adding high leverage relievers. So your plan is to add 65+ million in payroll essentially
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 12, 2015 21:43:18 GMT -5
To my non-scout's eye, Swihart's mechanics behind the plate looked a bit like (gulp) Salty's. He just looked awkward in the way he would stab at the ball or set his feet to throw. I expected better. But given the athleticism that others here have mentioned and his reputation as an intelligent kid with a good work ethic, I don't think it's a concern long-term. He'll improve. My preference would be to send him back to AAA for a year to play 3B. A lot of the athleticism - the impressive speed, for instance - will disappear fast if he spends 130 games a year squatting and getting his hands, mask, thighs, etc. pounded by foul balls. The upside might be a 2017 3B who could put up a 110-ish OPS-plus and play average defense with incremental improvement each year thereafter, all while being cost-controlled. That would be a lot better than what we have at the position now. In the meantime, the RS would have to find another Hanigan/Ross type - somebody better than Sandy Leon - to share C with Hanigan in 2016 until CV is fully healthy and ready to catch 130 games. good god no just no
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 12, 2015 18:29:52 GMT -5
Can we please NOT trade for Aroldis Chapman? The price would be astronomical. I just don't like it when good prospects or a huge loads of money are exchanged for relief pitchers, because relief pitchers tend to flame out or completely lose effectiveness without warning and almost immediately. ESPECIALLY when the pitcher comes from the NL to the AL. In addition, how have relief pitchers trades worked out for the Sox in past years? (Anderson/Bagwell, Gagne/Murphy, Bailey/Reddick, Melancon/Lowrie) I would be much more open to signing some mid-level guys or just filling relief pitcher roles from within or with an insignificant acquisition that wouldn't cost a top prospect. And it seems there are always guys who are signed on minor league contracts that become effective relief pitchers. Chapman is on a 1 year deal, which tempers his price a bit. Reds are also rebuilding which means they'd be more open to taking an A ball prospect (who despite his ceiling) might never make AA ball. Chapman will also return a draft pick after giving up a QO. This isn't some middling reliever coming from the NL to AL. This is a guy who throws 100+ mph who has 15.4K/9 over his career. Would I rather go after Ken giles? Sure. But for a team that has started the clocks on Rodriguez/Bogaerts/Betts, etc. lets start competing now.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 12, 2015 17:45:20 GMT -5
Perhaps the Sox use JBJ as part of a deal with Cleveland to land Carrasco? Maybe something like JBJ plus one of Buchholz or Kelly. Maybe that would be the framework of a deal with the Indians? The Sox would sign a Chris Young or a stopgap OF until Margot is ready. Going to take a lot more than that. Keith Law today suggested Swihart for Carrasco, then running with Vazquez. If CV is healthy, that's fine by me. I didn't quite get that. Why does Cleveland covet Swihart so much with Yan Gomes signed long term? Gomes is essentially the guy you're hoping Swihart becomes.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 12, 2015 17:38:26 GMT -5
Castillo is a replacement level to average starter quality player signed long term. He's someone I would trade for a reliever like Giles, maybe throw in some money to subsidize his contract a bit. He's easily replaceable and doesn't have nearly as much upside as people give him credit for. Why in god's name would the Phillies do that lol
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 12, 2015 17:34:50 GMT -5
Brian, jmei, Let me complicate things. Last weekend, I introduced the hypothesis that when you trade prospects for veterans you are trading two future wins for each present win you acquire. I have spent a fair amount time this week validating this hypothesis (if anyone is interested I would be happy to write a longer post on the subject with data this weekend). I have identified between 30 and 50 prospect for veteran trades since 2002 in which at least one significant player switched teams (30 to 50 reflects the range in reasonable definitions of significant). Two to one seems to be a reasonable conservative estimate of the exchange rate. With that relationship in mind, does it change whom you would be willing to trade? What drives this relationship iseems to be over-estimation of the risk associated with prospects. I believe JBJ's most likely future is the one suggested by his high OBP occasional power profile in AAA. I think his most likely future is as a 2.5 to 3.5 WAR player with 5 years of remaining control. I also think he will age well. I think he has as much chance of being better than this as being worse. Do you think there is any chance the Red Sox could achieve a return similar to that for JBJ? As a thought exercise what do you think he will be and what kind of return do you think the Red Sox could get? Wait what? Maybe I'm not interpreting this right, but you're trying to draw a correlation between a teams record present and future to one-time trades? Completely ignoring all the other happenings that involve the massive amounts of other players on the rosters? Huh? Or are you talking about WAR? It's not some shock that guys with more controllable years can get higher WAR totals than guys under control for shorter periods.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 12, 2015 2:52:57 GMT -5
Aaron Hicks had a monster July. 1.001 OPS. He cut his K's by a lot this year too. Not a bad pickup but Murphy is a good backup catcher. Hicks is a damn good defender as well, great arm picks up assists quite often. If the Yanks do decide to flip Gardner for pitching (which seems likelier with Hicks, because Ackley is already on their bench), Hicks is not a bad replacement at all. If they keep Gardner, he's a great guy to have on your bench to spell any of the three outfield positions. There were some Paxton/Gardner rumors. Tribe also want an OF. Yanks could also look to Carrasco, though they might have to offset some of Gardner's salary somehow.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 12, 2015 2:50:39 GMT -5
Bogaerts, Betts, Espinoza, Moncada, & Devers are the only guys I'd be pissed about losing. There are certain guys I'd be annoyed losing depending on the return, Owens, Margot, Depends on the package. I wouldn't be too torn parting with Devers. Despite his elite extremely high ceiling bat, there's just lots of chances for him to go awry without any other standout parts of his game. Skillset sort of reminds me of Dominic Brown. Though on the flip side, also Miguel Sano. But, if he can be a large piece in a trade for a 1 or 2 starter, I'm game.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 12, 2015 2:43:26 GMT -5
If you're going to be called a crumb collector, I suppose it's best to hear it from a billionaire. I don't like Boras much, but the Marlins certainly don't know how to run a team. Certainly not a good look for them to be comparing players to horses, then again it's not like they attract worthwhile free agents anyway. Sucks that Stanton will waste his career in that garbage franchise.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 12, 2015 2:35:32 GMT -5
Guys that can be traded: All of them
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 12, 2015 2:33:30 GMT -5
As of now, we do have Buccholz, Porcello, Miley, E-Rod, Kelly, Owens, Wright, Johnson (8) & that's it for like 3 levels. Maybe Escobar/Ross. I'm sure the Sox know this & this is not breaking news. A couple of TJ's & we're in trouble. They need to ADD one (even a #2 would be ok) & not take from this group. I think your math is right, but that's not an argument for keeping everyone we have. I think that both Kelly and Wight are, right now, at least as good as Miley if not a bit better; and Owens has a solid chance to pass him, too. Between the three of them the odds that Miley is your 6th best starter are quite good. And he has real trade value. I am more than comfortable going into the season with the choice of Wright or Kelly as the 5th starter. What this means is that when they are putting together deals, one of the things they should be looking for is a AAA starter who projects to be a bit above replacement level and has options left. (If he's a failed prospect, so much the better, because those guys always have a small bit of upside.) Your AAA SP depth plays much better if it's not just Owens and Johnson, but also New Guy X . (If they can sign Hill and put both Owens and Kelly in the pen, perhaps with Ross going to AAA, then such a guy becomes gravy.) Yikes, no to most of that lol.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 12, 2015 2:25:37 GMT -5
I do like the idea of trading for a Ace. Thought i would give a shot at a couple horrible trade ideas. White Sox Sale and Robertson for Swihart, Devers, Miley, Marco Hernandez/Marrero Mets Harvey for Castillo, Miley, Guera, Margot Sox fans would do that Harvey deal in a heartbeat, which probably means it won't work. That's the Mets adding some payroll too (and a bad contract at that). That and the Sox probably don't want to eradicate too much OF depth. Odds white sox want to trade Sale or Robertson is quite low, and not for that package. Swihart and Devers are a good start for Sale though.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 11, 2015 21:52:18 GMT -5
Also, in reply to wcsoxfan, I would probably hold onto Owens unless you're shipping him out for a starter. His mid to high 4 ERA didn't look impressive, but he his swing and miss stuff was best on the club, and his ERA was slightly inflated due to him getting absolutely walloped in 3 starts.
There was a bit of an interesting divide between his starts. In 3 of them, in about 12 innings he gave up 21ER, just clearly didn't have his stuff on those days. Absolutely got murdered.
But then there were 8 other starts, in which he posted a combined sub 2 ERA. A decent amount of dominance.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 11, 2015 21:45:14 GMT -5
First time posting - any thoughts on Votto for Hanley, Craig, and a prospect? Still a lot of money left on the backend for Votto (approx. $100 million from age 36-40), but he should theoretically be a decent bet to age well as he is a high OBP hitter, has an opposite field approach that would favor Fenway, and could DH to rest his surgically repaired knee. I assume the Reds would want a decent prospect in return - e.g., Brian Johnson, Sam Travis - but the Sox would be getting an actual first baseman who should be productive for at least a handful of seasons and the money with Craig and Hanley included would be essentially the same during those productive seasons. It just doesn't really fit the ownership model here. Votto is a fantastic player, there's just a lot of risk involved in 8 extremely well compensated years of a 32 year old player with a surgically repaired knee. Craig's money is annoying, but since he's off the 40man and doesn't count towards luxury tax, it's not hugely prohibitive. This team prints money. Reds are also rebuilding, so Craig and Hanley don't do much for them. Might be more worth it to pay Votto 25 million a year to get asses into seats and sell jerseys, and give the fans something to hold onto through the 3-5 year rebuild.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 11, 2015 21:31:46 GMT -5
Fernandez is the guy I would like to target eventually, but the timing isn't right at the moment. If the Marlins are out of it at the deadline or maybe next season it becomes a lot more realistic. That is the reason I would prefer to hold onto Margot and Guerra right now because I don't think they have reached their peak value. Margot and Guerra are quality prospects, but there is no way they headline a trade for Fernandez at the moment. But what if they keep developing? If Margot continues to progress towards the player a lot of us think he will be, in a years time he could be a 22 year old, major league ready CF that is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball and a legitimate headliner of a package for an ace. I don't think that is a crazy projection because that is the direction he is heading right now. Similarly, if Guerra can continue to show an improved bat in Salem along with top flight defense, he will take another big leap up the rankings and be an even more valuable trade chip. In 12 months time I think a package of Margot, Guerra and Kopech could be very tempting for the Marlins. Obviously there is the risk that these guys could struggle and lose value, and if you think they have reached their peak value, then you absolutely move them now. But I think you have to trust your evaluation and if you think these guys are going to continue to develop, hold onto them and and move them for the elite talent that isn't available at the moment. You obviously have to take into consideration the contract you would have to give Fernandez to lock him up long term and there is also the injury concerns. But this is the type of pitching talent that doesn't become available too often, especially at his age. If I were the Marlins, I'd insist upon having Anderson Espinoza in that deal. Who better to replace a young Fernandez than an even younger version of a young Fernandez. I think any young stud pitcher that is to get dealt, the other team will want Espinoza. I know I certainly would. Any elite talent the Sox try to trade for are going to result in a conversation sort of like this: "Betts or Bogaerts." "No." "Swihart." "No." "Okay, how about Moncada or Espinoza?" "No." "How about Benintendi?" "No." "..."
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 11, 2015 21:29:49 GMT -5
Does anyone consider Fernandez an ace next year when he's capped at probably 150-160 innings? The man threw under 90 this year between minors and majors.
He's awesome, I'd love to have him. But not if the goal is to add 1 pitcher capable of throwing 200+ dominant innings.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 11, 2015 21:24:51 GMT -5
It's two extra years at a lower AAV for his age 31 and 32 seasons. When you're talking about signing a 28-year-old, there's not a huge difference between 3/$36m and 5/$56.5m. Lol keep telling yourself that.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 11, 2015 21:21:40 GMT -5
That Korean closer is someone I would take a flyer on if my scouts liked him. He will probably be undervalued due to fear that his stuff does not play up in the majors, and he has probably closer upside. Even if he fails, the financial burden would not be big enough to be a major issue going forward. H/9 jumped way up this year compared to recent years. Strikeouts dropped. 33 years old. This team has questionable arms to throw in the pen, they need some proven track records to add in there. Soria, Kimbrel, Chapman, Giles, O'Day fit the bill. And maybe look into some hard throwers like Jeffress/Sipp/Fields, etc.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 11, 2015 21:02:06 GMT -5
I apologize but this is an absolutely ludicrous post. All those players have track records of good to great performance. Rusney does not. Some of them even came off extremely productive seasons. And we're going to hack 2 weeks off his half season just to inflate his numbers lol? what?! And I'm not sure what you consider a "massive overspend" but if you think he's worth roughly 3/27 on the open market, and you've committed two extra years and 33 million extra... that's a massive overspend to me haha. No one would claim him on waivers. You said "maybe" he's worth 3/30 and someone is claiming him for 5/60? Your logic doesn't even compute. Castillo has less of a track record than Markakis or Cabrera, but he's considerably younger and has a good amount of upside/prime years left. Austin Jackson is a good comp; over the last three years, Jackson's at .265/.319/.382 (96 wRC+), 2.1 fWAR per 600 PAs, compared to Castillo's .262/.302/.379 (83 wRC+), 2.4 fWAR per 600 PAs in the majors so far. I think Jackson will end up getting something like 3/$36m, in which case it's not much of a jump to get to 5/$56.5. Not much of a jump? You people are insane. Tacking on 2 years in any contract is a BIG JUMP. This team would have Lester if they made what you guys call "a little jump" haha
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 11, 2015 21:01:21 GMT -5
I apologize but this is an absolutely ludicrous post. All those players have track records of good to great performance. Rusney does not. Some of them even came off extremely productive seasons. And we're going to hack 2 weeks off his half season just to inflate his numbers lol? what?! And I'm not sure what you consider a "massive overspend" but if you think he's worth roughly 3/27 on the open market, and you've committed two extra years and 33 million extra... that's a massive overspend to me haha. No one would claim him on waivers. You said "maybe" he's worth 3/30 and someone is claiming him for 5/60? Your logic doesn't even compute. You really dislike Rusney Castillo. False, I really hope he performs well this year. It's just asking him to pose one hell of a refinement of skills. We haven't even spoke about his ability to stay on the field. Lots of nagging little injuries. Don't sit there and misinterpret it as some sort of axe to grind. You evaluate the guy and you get really good defense paired with bad baserunning and a poor plate approach and inability to hit anything that isn't flat. He has utility for the Sox as a guy who they have invested in and want to see develop. Everything he's shown though thus far offensively has been bad. He needs to significantly change his hitting mechanics so he's not a guy who puts the ball on the ground in the infield 65% of the time. That is a HUGE problem, especially for a guy who has (as of yet) untapped power. If he was in pre-arb years he'd be a really valuable guy. But for the Sox, it's a bad contract right now.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 11, 2015 18:44:36 GMT -5
Nick Markakis at age 31 got 4/44 last year. Melky Cabrera at age 31 got 3/42. Looking at the Fangraphs crowdsourcing, Austin Jackson's median projection was 3/30. Gerardo Parra's was 3/24. And those tend to come in low. Maybe Castillo wouldn't quite get 5/56.5 on the open market right now, but that's not a massive overspend by any stretch of the imagination, and he absolutely would get claimed on waivers. From his last call-up on July 27 until the end of the year, he hit .261/.299/.387, which ain't great, but was in a small enough sample size that if you take off his 0-for-14 to end the year, it jumps to .281/.316/.416, which looks a little more palatable. If he hit the open market, I bet you he'd get something like 8-10M AAV, albeit over 3 seasons rather than 5. I apologize but this is an absolutely ludicrous post. All those players have track records of good to great performance. Rusney does not. Some of them even came off extremely productive seasons. And we're going to hack 2 weeks off his half season just to inflate his numbers lol? what?! And I'm not sure what you consider a "massive overspend" but if you think he's worth roughly 3/27 on the open market, and you've committed two extra years and 33 million extra... that's a massive overspend to me haha. No one would claim him on waivers. You said "maybe" he's worth 3/30 and someone is claiming him for 5/60? Your logic doesn't even compute.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 9, 2015 20:55:18 GMT -5
The Indians need help at third base and want a right-handed power bat to play in the outfield. I'm not sure Boston has the players that the Indians want, but if the Sox could get a third (or even fourth team) involved who really wants to stock their farm systems, I could see the Sox being players for Salazar or Carrasco. Please, please, please don't bring up names like Wade Miley, Rusney Castillo, or Hanley Ramirez in this discussion. It's just not fair. I think we all need to play by the rules and assume that Cleveland is a team with a fan base and wants to win. There is no way in this market that they are going to trade elite, cost-controlled pitching for players that Red Sox fans are happy to see go. From one who has brought up 2 of those names, I think your short sighted. (see the Trade Forum) explain your reasoning please
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