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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 9, 2015 15:55:37 GMT -5
This was mentioned in the Discussion Forum so I figured I'd toss it here just to see what people would be willing to pay.
Jose Fernandez is a true ACE and is still relatively cheap, but he is going into arbitration next year and coming off a major injury last year (he appears to be fully recovered) so perhaps the Marlins would listen.
Here's my spitball: Jose Fernandez (arb1) and Carter Capps (arb1) - to fill 2 major holes
for
Eduardo Rodriguez + Henry Owens + Pat Light + Manuel MargotYoan Moncada + Wendell Rijo
Nobody here wants to trade Rodriguez, but given the state of the Marlins starting pitching I think it will take 2 major league ready starters to get Fernandez. That package would hurt, a lot, but it's nothing the Red Sox can't afford.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 9, 2015 15:57:03 GMT -5
Would you trade Jose Fernandez for that? Or to put it another way, would you trade a player whose value is comparable to Betts or Bogaerts for that? I think they'd need to include Moncada instead of, say, Owens, at minimum.
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Post by amfox1 on Oct 9, 2015 17:45:22 GMT -5
I think any trade between BOS and MIA for Fernandez (which is not going to happen, mind you) would have to include Bogaerts from MIA's point of view. If I'm MIA's FO, there is no chance I'm even considering a deal for Fernandez without Bogaerts or Betts.
If DD concedes on Bogaerts, then I think there at least is a foundation for a trade. Otherwise, I quickly hang up the phone.
People don't trade quarters for a dime and a handful of nickels.
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Post by m1keyboots on Oct 9, 2015 18:31:19 GMT -5
The Marlins would need Eduardo, and Owens, possibly a more ML ready reliever than Light, and if you replace Margot with an IF with a high ceiling like a Moncada or Devers. Maybe. They don't really need Margot.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 9, 2015 19:34:21 GMT -5
Thanks for the input. You're right, Margot isn't 'high end' enough to be the center piece prospect so I swapped in Moncada.
If Fernandez was on the Red Sox I wouldn't trade him for just about anything. But if the Marlins want to be a contender for more than a year (as they have been at times in the past) then they are going to have to get creative given their payroll and history. Best way to do this is to get multiple players with 1 or less years of experience who can help quickly. This may be a move involving one of their OFers rather than Fernandez, but Fernandez is the best chip they have now that they have committed to Stanton. He'll be very expensive after next season and gone in 3 years unless they really break the bank.
I kept Light in there as I can't think of a more valuable young reliever for the Red Sox right now.
Not mentioning Betts and Bogaerts as that wouldn't make any sense for anyone, even if the value may be close. (I would value Betts/Bogaerts over Fernandez due to position and years of control)
Closest comparison (although maybe a bit lazy) I can think of is when the Marlins traded Becket, Lowell and Mota for Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, Harvey Garcia and Jesus Delgado. From a value standpoint I think this prospect package is stronger but the Marlins didn't want to pay Lowell, Becket was going into his 2nd Arb year (not his 1st) and Capps probably has a slight edge over Mota (who had 4 fWAR over the previous 3 years).
Left Owens in because I don't think this makes any sense for them unless they're getting 2 major league ready starters.
So what would be the next piece? Maybe Shaw to platoon with Realmuto at 1B? Perhaps Holt for Prado if they want to cut 11M off the payroll?
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 10, 2015 10:19:44 GMT -5
I had thought this was a really good idea before I realized he is only entering Arb 1.
Still, I would be very aggressive in pursuing him. Devers, Rodríguez, Owens, Rijo would be my personal offer. If Fernandez did not carry the injury risks associated with throwing a baseball then I would consider Betts, Xander or Moncada. However because of that risk, I would "only" go as high as Devers and Rodríguez. If that's not enough, oh well. He will always be my counter to the argument the picking to 10 and 15 are the same (This case being 13 &19).
****EDIT***** I should also note that while Fernandez may be the best Starting Pitcher in a per inning basis, he has only pitched 120 ip over the last 2 seasons. No team is going to trade a 4 win 23 year old starting player for a guy with that injury history. The Sox would hang up the phone if the Marlins asked. If Fernandez goes out and pitches 200 innings then it is a very different story. Obviously the Marlins know this and would probably prefer to wait.
****Last Edit, I Promise******* In essence the problem with any Fernadez trade is this: He has too much of an injury history for any team to trade a Xander/Betts type talent with proven productivity and future growth potential for. Meanwhile at the same time he is way way too good and cheap for the Marlins to take anything other than an absurd package (and no depth does not count) in return.
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Post by shane on Oct 10, 2015 15:44:58 GMT -5
Fernandez would go a long way to rebuilding our rotation. I would love to see him in a Red Sox uniform for years to come. He even loves Boston! www.miamiherald.com/sports/mlb/miami-marlins/article26833702.htmlI wonder if there would be any way to get him without giving up Bogaerts, Betts, Moncada, Devers, Espinoza, or Benitendi. I would personally give up Swihart, Eduardo, Owens, and Margot. Maybe throw in a couple lower level lottery tickets to make it happen.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 10, 2015 20:43:18 GMT -5
Fernandez would go a long way to rebuilding our rotation. I would love to see him in a Red Sox uniform for years to come. He even loves Boston! www.miamiherald.com/sports/mlb/miami-marlins/article26833702.htmlI wonder if there would be any way to get him without giving up Bogaerts, Betts, Moncada, Devers, Espinoza, or Benitendi. I would personally give up Swihart, Eduardo, Owens, and Margot. Maybe throw in a couple lower level lottery tickets to make it happen. And no doubt one of those lottery tickets would be Anderson Espinoza. There's no way the Marlins deal him without getting one or two of Moncada, Devers, Espinoza, or Benintendi. You have to put yourself in the Marlins' GM's shoes, and you have to look over at their farm system and see what their needs are. I know you've been beating this drum hard over at SOSH, but wishcasting isn't going to make him a Red Sox.
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Post by shane on Oct 10, 2015 21:38:49 GMT -5
Fernandez would go a long way to rebuilding our rotation. I would love to see him in a Red Sox uniform for years to come. He even loves Boston! www.miamiherald.com/sports/mlb/miami-marlins/article26833702.htmlI wonder if there would be any way to get him without giving up Bogaerts, Betts, Moncada, Devers, Espinoza, or Benitendi. I would personally give up Swihart, Eduardo, Owens, and Margot. Maybe throw in a couple lower level lottery tickets to make it happen. And no doubt one of those lottery tickets would be Anderson Espinoza. There's no way the Marlins deal him without getting one or two of Moncada, Devers, Espinoza, or Benintendi. You have to put yourself in the Marlins' GM's shoes, and you have to look over at their farm system and see what their needs are. I know you've been beating this drum hard over at SOSH, but wishcasting isn't going to make him a Red Sox. It would hurt, but I might still be interested. Eduardo, Swihart, and Owens might have more value to them than Espinoza and Benintendi since they're major league ready. I'd personally rather have the higher upside guy, but it looks bad for their franchise if they trade away their second best talent besides Stanton for lottery tickets. Maybe switch Margot to Devers? Fernandez for Eduardo, Swihart, Owens, and Devers. Throw in Guerra if that's what it takes. Maybe you can try to get Capps back too. That's a pretty big offer for them to turn down.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 10, 2015 23:42:25 GMT -5
And no doubt one of those lottery tickets would be Anderson Espinoza. There's no way the Marlins deal him without getting one or two of Moncada, Devers, Espinoza, or Benintendi. You have to put yourself in the Marlins' GM's shoes, and you have to look over at their farm system and see what their needs are. I know you've been beating this drum hard over at SOSH, but wishcasting isn't going to make him a Red Sox. It would hurt, but I might still be interested. Eduardo, Swihart, and Owens might have more value to them than Espinoza and Benintendi since they're major league ready. I'd personally rather have the higher upside guy, but it looks bad for their franchise if they trade away their second best talent besides Stanton for lottery tickets. Maybe switch Margot to Devers? Fernandez for Eduardo, Swihart, Owens, and Devers. Throw in Guerra if that's what it takes. Maybe you can try to get Capps back too. That's a pretty big offer for them to turn down. Honestly, what is the Marlins' motivation for wanting to move an affordable ace pitcher? It's not like the Marlins don't have a farm system to fill holes from. And from the Red Sox standpoint, Fernandez is coming off injuries. Not sure they'd want to deplete their depth to upgrade from Eduardo Rodriguez to Fernandez and then risk an injury issue for Fernandez. Don't hurt yourself thinking too much about Fernandez. Odds are pretty good the Marlins aren't interested in dealing him anyways. And like I said, if they did, there's no way they don't want Espinoza who would be the closest thing to Fernandez, if the Marlins ever lost their minds and decided to deal a guy they have no real need to deal. The Marlins need to get better players to surround Fernandez with, not get rid of him.
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Post by panther45 on Oct 18, 2015 11:34:20 GMT -5
Though I love Fernandez, I would suggest that a couple pitchers be at the ready, since between he and Buchholz, that's a pretty brittle duo.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 18, 2015 21:50:35 GMT -5
As much as I like Fernandez, any trade the Marlins would make would be giving up **way** too much from the Sox's standpoint. With his TJ history and only three years of control, there's no way he's worth Swihart, Rodriguez, Owens (all five years), and a top-15 prospect/ probable middle-of-the-order hitter like Devers. That deal just kills the Sox's depth and lays waste to their stockpile of young talent. It creates more holes than it fills.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 8, 2015 18:17:11 GMT -5
All those offers are wayyyyy to high lol.
Fernandez is dirty, but you have a guy coming off Tommy John only under control for 3 more years in arbitration. Since he's coming off Tommy John, he's going to have innings limits for at least the next two years, and the Sox aren't exactly the team to shrug those off, especially considering Fernandez' biceps/arm problems this year. He will not be the 200IP guy the Sox are looking for.
Trade doesn't make too much sense for the Marlins, or for what the Sox are looking for (i.e. a HORSE). He's also a Boras client so the extension ain't happening. Probably worthless throwing out a trade proposal, as the Sox offer would not be high enough to sway the Marlins. (think Owens, Devers, Marrero, Raudes or Owens, Margot, Devers, etc.)
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Post by ausox on Nov 11, 2015 9:03:02 GMT -5
Fernandez is the guy I would like to target eventually, but the timing isn't right at the moment. If the Marlins are out of it at the deadline or maybe next season it becomes a lot more realistic. That is the reason I would prefer to hold onto Margot and Guerra right now because I don't think they have reached their peak value. Margot and Guerra are quality prospects, but there is no way they headline a trade for Fernandez at the moment. But what if they keep developing? If Margot continues to progress towards the player a lot of us think he will be, in a years time he could be a 22 year old, major league ready CF that is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball and a legitimate headliner of a package for an ace. I don't think that is a crazy projection because that is the direction he is heading right now.
Similarly, if Guerra can continue to show an improved bat in Salem along with top flight defense, he will take another big leap up the rankings and be an even more valuable trade chip. In 12 months time I think a package of Margot, Guerra and Kopech could be very tempting for the Marlins. Obviously there is the risk that these guys could struggle and lose value, and if you think they have reached their peak value, then you absolutely move them now. But I think you have to trust your evaluation and if you think these guys are going to continue to develop, hold onto them and and move them for the elite talent that isn't available at the moment.
You obviously have to take into consideration the contract you would have to give Fernandez to lock him up long term and there is also the injury concerns. But this is the type of pitching talent that doesn't become available too often, especially at his age.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 11, 2015 13:12:03 GMT -5
Fernandez is the guy I would like to target eventually, but the timing isn't right at the moment. If the Marlins are out of it at the deadline or maybe next season it becomes a lot more realistic. That is the reason I would prefer to hold onto Margot and Guerra right now because I don't think they have reached their peak value. Margot and Guerra are quality prospects, but there is no way they headline a trade for Fernandez at the moment. But what if they keep developing? If Margot continues to progress towards the player a lot of us think he will be, in a years time he could be a 22 year old, major league ready CF that is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball and a legitimate headliner of a package for an ace. I don't think that is a crazy projection because that is the direction he is heading right now. Similarly, if Guerra can continue to show an improved bat in Salem along with top flight defense, he will take another big leap up the rankings and be an even more valuable trade chip. In 12 months time I think a package of Margot, Guerra and Kopech could be very tempting for the Marlins. Obviously there is the risk that these guys could struggle and lose value, and if you think they have reached their peak value, then you absolutely move them now. But I think you have to trust your evaluation and if you think these guys are going to continue to develop, hold onto them and and move them for the elite talent that isn't available at the moment. You obviously have to take into consideration the contract you would have to give Fernandez to lock him up long term and there is also the injury concerns. But this is the type of pitching talent that doesn't become available too often, especially at his age. If I were the Marlins, I'd insist upon having Anderson Espinoza in that deal. Who better to replace a young Fernandez than an even younger version of a young Fernandez. I think any young stud pitcher that is to get dealt, the other team will want Espinoza. I know I certainly would.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 11, 2015 21:29:49 GMT -5
Does anyone consider Fernandez an ace next year when he's capped at probably 150-160 innings? The man threw under 90 this year between minors and majors.
He's awesome, I'd love to have him. But not if the goal is to add 1 pitcher capable of throwing 200+ dominant innings.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces on Nov 11, 2015 21:31:46 GMT -5
Fernandez is the guy I would like to target eventually, but the timing isn't right at the moment. If the Marlins are out of it at the deadline or maybe next season it becomes a lot more realistic. That is the reason I would prefer to hold onto Margot and Guerra right now because I don't think they have reached their peak value. Margot and Guerra are quality prospects, but there is no way they headline a trade for Fernandez at the moment. But what if they keep developing? If Margot continues to progress towards the player a lot of us think he will be, in a years time he could be a 22 year old, major league ready CF that is a top 10 prospect in all of baseball and a legitimate headliner of a package for an ace. I don't think that is a crazy projection because that is the direction he is heading right now. Similarly, if Guerra can continue to show an improved bat in Salem along with top flight defense, he will take another big leap up the rankings and be an even more valuable trade chip. In 12 months time I think a package of Margot, Guerra and Kopech could be very tempting for the Marlins. Obviously there is the risk that these guys could struggle and lose value, and if you think they have reached their peak value, then you absolutely move them now. But I think you have to trust your evaluation and if you think these guys are going to continue to develop, hold onto them and and move them for the elite talent that isn't available at the moment. You obviously have to take into consideration the contract you would have to give Fernandez to lock him up long term and there is also the injury concerns. But this is the type of pitching talent that doesn't become available too often, especially at his age. If I were the Marlins, I'd insist upon having Anderson Espinoza in that deal. Who better to replace a young Fernandez than an even younger version of a young Fernandez. I think any young stud pitcher that is to get dealt, the other team will want Espinoza. I know I certainly would. Any elite talent the Sox try to trade for are going to result in a conversation sort of like this: "Betts or Bogaerts." "No." "Swihart." "No." "Okay, how about Moncada or Espinoza?" "No." "How about Benintendi?" "No." "..."
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 12, 2015 10:22:08 GMT -5
Jose Fernandez is that rare rare talent. It's hard because of the injuries on the other hand he'd only likely be obtainable (if he even is) because of those injuries.
This guy is the best pitcher in baseball when he's on the mound and basically has been since the day he entered the league. "When he's on the mound" is incredibly key.
Every starter has risk, some more than others but they all have it. But not many, ever, are as good as this guy. I'm not the least bit worried about his 2016 innings limit. This guy is a franchise altering player.
So in short, yea I'd go after him and hard. Hard to say anyone in particular is off limits for him. When thinking Xander and Betts, I think it's time to move on from them as prospects. They are young proven major leaguers with super star ceilings and no injury history. One can argue Fernandez, because of his injuries, is the chip to get those guys.
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Post by rafael on Nov 12, 2015 13:07:09 GMT -5
Both Xander and Mookie have much more trade value than Fernandez.
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Post by jimoh on Nov 13, 2015 6:34:12 GMT -5
If I were the Marlins, I'd insist upon having Anderson Espinoza in that deal. Who better to replace a young Fernandez than an even younger version of a young Fernandez. I think any young stud pitcher that is to get dealt, the other team will want Espinoza. I know I certainly would. Any elite talent the Sox try to trade for are going to result in a conversation sort of like this: "Betts or Bogaerts." "No." "Swihart." "No." "Okay, how about Moncada or Espinoza?" "No." "How about Benintendi?" "No." "..." I'm sure sometimes these conversations occur, but we now have a guy who is considered a frank straight shooter. So it might be, "Give us X or Y or Z for him." "None of those are fair deals. All of those guys are worth more than he is. Do you think that's fair? Let's do a fair deal in which we both get what we need."
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Post by mgoetze on Nov 13, 2015 7:05:02 GMT -5
I wonder if there would be any way to get him without giving up Bogaerts, Betts, Moncada, Devers, Espinoza, or Benitendi. LOL, if Miami were willing to do it for any two of Moncada, Devers, Espinoza or Benintendi I would do it in an instant.
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Post by nomar on Nov 13, 2015 10:12:47 GMT -5
I wonder if there would be any way to get him without giving up Bogaerts, Betts, Moncada, Devers, Espinoza, or Benitendi. LOL, if Miami were willing to do it for any two of Moncada, Devers, Espinoza or Benintendi I would do it in an instant. I'm not sure I would for 3 years of Fernandez. I would be fine with Devers + Espinoza probably, but Benintendi + Moncada, for example, would be a no go for me.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 13, 2015 10:18:13 GMT -5
I'm guessing you have never seen Fernandez pitch... Or maybe you have and you're forgetting as much as we love Prospects Fernandez is a legitimate one of the best to ever throw the baseball type pitchers. Health is a major concern and something that would be heavily looked at and there needs to be comfort there but that's what we are talking about with this kid.
That's not to say he's going to have that kind of a career but that's how good he is when he's on the mound not how good he could be.
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Post by nomar on Nov 13, 2015 10:20:39 GMT -5
I'm guessing you have never seen Fernandez pitch... Or maybe you have and you're forgetting as much as we love Prospects Fernandez is a legitimate one of the best to ever throw the baseball type pitchers. Health is a major concern and something that would be heavily looked at and there needs to be comfort there but that's what we are talking about with this kid. That's not to say he's going to have that kind of a career but that's how good he is when he's on the mound not how good he could be. I just think with his injury history, I would prefer a year or two more of control. And we already know he's going to want a monster deal in free agency. I agree that he rivals Kershaw talent wise and is an absolute monster, but there are red flags. Makes him a bit more complicated.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 13, 2015 10:36:17 GMT -5
He's only getting that monster deal if he's proves healthy in which case you will gladly pay it.
Clemens Pedro Beckett Lester Fernandez
I like the ring to that... In any event this is the longest this team has gone without a guy they can consider a rotation leader in 30 years.
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