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Post by patford on Sept 3, 2021 17:54:32 GMT -5
Igelsias is not exactly having a career year, but he played in 114 of their 134 games, costs 3.5M$ and produced positive WAR... The Red Sox would be crazy not to sign him.
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Post by patford on Sept 3, 2021 16:25:58 GMT -5
I get how enticing this13 inning stretch is, but in the off season, people loved Richards. Then he sucked. Then he seemed to turn it around, and people were back on the Richards train. Then he sucked again. And now he’s… had a good stretch? Turned it around (for reals?)? And we are back on the roller coaster? Hard pass. What did a great mind once say? Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice won’t get fooled again? It's not about one of us being right. If he continues to pitch well everyone will want him and if he does not then everyone will want him gone. He's not a rookie. He's been around a good amount of time so he needs to get it done now.
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Post by patford on Sept 3, 2021 7:47:24 GMT -5
Garrett Richards as a reliever: 13.1IP 10.8K/9 2.7BB/9 0.68ERA 1.66FIP 3.52xFIP 3.04SIERA 0.6WAR His WAR as a starter (110IP) is 0.4. Among RS relievers with more than 10 IP he ranks: 1st in ERA 1st in FIP 4th in xFIP 3rd in SIERA If he can gain another ~0.3 WAR throughout the rest of the season, he would be worth what the RS pay him...that's staggering considering everything that happend with him this season...his FIP probably won't stay that low though... I wonder if Chris Sale's Tom Brady bit is pushing Richards as well as E-Rod ?
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Post by patford on Sept 2, 2021 21:44:52 GMT -5
I just shake my head every time I look at the standings and see Tampa has scored more runs than any other team in MLB.
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Post by patford on Sept 2, 2021 20:56:58 GMT -5
Richards does have decent stuff. And his control has actually been better since he had to stop using the spider tack. It may have been the spin rate was so crazy he couldn't control the ball. Now Perez? I've seen enough.
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Post by patford on Sept 2, 2021 19:34:15 GMT -5
Show of hands of members who never stopped believing in Bobby this year.....and no cheating. RAISES HAND Same. My motto has been. They need to give him a little more run.
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Post by patford on Sept 2, 2021 18:18:26 GMT -5
Rays and Yankees salivating over three true outcomes Bobby.
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Post by patford on Sept 2, 2021 9:28:41 GMT -5
Joey Gallo is 15 for 108 with the Yankees. I see that the fourth best prospect they gave up had a 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K major league debut the other day Meanwhile Schwarber is 17 for 50 with a 492oba Bloom made the best trade at the deadline. Idiots like John"click bait"Tomase should be ignored. The Sox have all kinds of problems. The deadline moves aren't one of them.
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Post by patford on Sept 1, 2021 17:01:51 GMT -5
bloggingtheredsox.com/2021/08/31/new-podding-the-red-sox-episode-area-scout-josh-labandeira-joins-the-show/Blogging The Sox Podcast have the great Josh Labandeira, the scout who signed Nick Yorke, you guys must listen to this 😉 A few things: - You sens he's still pissed at the MLB Draft coverage (I'm looking at you Dan O'Dowd) after the pick. - The pandemic worked in the Sox favor, they won't be able to pick him at 17th otherwise. - "There's the Hassels, the Soderstorms, the veens, Nick is the best of them and the best hitter in my mind" - "He's a big leaguer stuck in the minors" - Similarities between Yorke and Pedroia, who he knew very well: High baseball IQ, Hardest workers, knows the strike zone but great bad balls hitters too... - He actually called him "King Kong in the batter's box" in his scouting report, not "king in the batter box" as mentioned in The Athletic piece. I will go listen in a minute, but these quotes are so juicy. Thanks. Spoiler warning. Do not listen without a drool cup.
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Post by patford on Sept 1, 2021 14:34:47 GMT -5
Why not give Ryan Fitzgerald a shot. He's a good defender and 27 years old.
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Post by patford on Sept 1, 2021 12:35:41 GMT -5
An example of DRS SSS noise, according to that stat, Jose Iglesias is the worst defender in baseball. I'm not sure what's going on with Iglesias this year, but he currently has 16 errors, which is 5 more than his previous career high. He also has a -8.7 UZR/150 (8th worst in baseball) and his OAA per Baseball Savant is negative for the first time since they've tracked it (2016). This is a good example of taking the extreme of a statistic/metric with a grain of salt while noticing that it is showing you something. Iglesias seems to have fallen off defensively, which would make sense as he's 31. Iglesias recently lost his starting job to Jack Mayfield, so perhaps you're onto something. Right. It isn't noise. He's making a lot of errors. A deeper look would show the type of errors. If it's a lot of throwing errors he may be getting to balls a lot of people wouldn't reach and then attempting to make very difficult throws. And if the 1B isn't very good it may be a lot of those bad throws might have been gloved by a really good 1B.
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Post by patford on Sept 1, 2021 7:30:39 GMT -5
I'm wondering if Dalbec is hitting and fielding his way into a trade discussion. There might still be the belief that he is better over at 3rd, and might be showing signs of a guy who be in your MLB lineup. With Casas on the horizon, getting a stop gap at 1B for a year was something many thought the Sox would be looking to do in 2022 anyways. Not that I'm advocating trading away Bobby, I like him. Dalbec is the sort of player who fits the modern game. Teams like the Rays and Yankees have lineups full of players who don't hit for average but do hit for power and walk. In the minors drawing walks was part of Dalbec's game and it seems to be coming back.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 19:08:58 GMT -5
The league will do something about it within the next 3 years. And god help us. What can they do? They tried messing with the balls both ways and banned the spitball so fools could put the ball in play. They toyed with the idea of lowering the mound and banning shifts, but seriously? That would be amateur hour. MEANWHILE, Xander FINALLY punishes that shit Yarbrough is throwing. God I hate the Rays. Robot umps. Simple. No excuse not to make the move as all sorts of idiotic things have been done. Extra innings man of 2nd. Seven inning double headers.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 14:41:34 GMT -5
My opinion is the ability to read and track a ball off the bat is one of those, "you can't teach it" skills. Not to say a person could not improve or would not be lost for a short time after a position change but it just seems to me that he does not have that particular gift. Hernandez and JBJ got to all kinds of balls that you'd never think they had a chance at and it was amazing how often they seemed to glide under them. Neither of them are particularly fast. Add to that Duran has an average to below average arm. I also find it interesting that Tampa turns over players at a high rate but one guy they have stuck with it Kevin Kiermaier who does not hit and never has hit. It's simply a premiere defensive position when you have extra base hits consistently turned into FB outs. Comparing anyone to JBJ seems unwise. He has great natural ability and, strangely, has been a committed and dedicated outfielder since a very young age, maybe ninth grade, despite being right-handed. Anytime you are discussing whether an outfielder can get better and your next sentence mentions JBJ you lose me. I also mentioned Hernandez. I'm very happy with him. And although he does not play for the Sox I mentioned Kiermaier. There are lots of outstanding CF in MLB. Duran is not close to being average. BTW. JBJ has won one GG.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 14:38:49 GMT -5
One more point on Duran's defense. Isn't defense a lot more predictive than offense when a player moves from AAA to MLB ? Is there any reason at all a fielder's defense would not be exactly the same in MLB as it was in AAA? Also Fenway Park has a very deep and very difficult CF.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 13:05:50 GMT -5
The worst OF in MLB is overstating it, but I believe The Enlightened Red Sox Fan's opinion should be that he's not a good outfielder here at the end of the 2021 season. Scouting reports were not good in the minors + the small amount of MLB defensive stats are horrendous + the tracking data on his first step is horrendous Opinions on how much he will improve will vary. My opinion is the ability to read and track a ball off the bat is one of those, "you can't teach it" skills. Not to say a person could not improve or would not be lost for a short time after a position change but it just seems to me that he does not have that particular gift. Hernandez and JBJ got to all kinds of balls that you'd never think they had a chance at and it was amazing how often they seemed to glide under them. Neither of them are particularly fast. Add to that Duran has an average to below average arm. I also find it interesting that Tampa turns over players at a high rate but one guy they have stuck with it Kevin Kiermaier who does not hit and never has hit. It's simply a premiere defensive position when you have extra base hits consistently turned into FB outs.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 12:56:12 GMT -5
The only hint in the scouting report is this: "At second base, showed soft hands and fluid actions, though athleticism was somewhat wasted."
Of course, if his speed is never sufficient to make up for his Billy-from-Family-Circle type routes then his athleticism is even more wasted in the outfield.
Exactly. And it's not like there have never been fast 2B men. Dee Gordon plays a lot of 2B. There are many others.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 10:41:26 GMT -5
It's odd that Bloom did not follow the TB model. Perhaps he believed the MLB PR which claimed MLB was going to address the 3 outcomes problem? The uncanny thing about TB is the team keeps moving parts. They bring in a nobody who has a huge year and then a year later that guy is gone and reverts to stinking and they bring in another nobody. Guys like Logan Morrison come in and hit nearly 40 HR after hitting fewer then 20 on average and going right back to that the second they are out the door. Corey Dickerson, Steven Souza, CJ Cron. etc.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 10:28:59 GMT -5
I don't think "MLB wants" a three-outcome future. MLB has hired Theo Epstein to try to figure out how to get rid of it, despite the fact that teams are incentivized to fall in line because it's winning. The only way that you're going to get rid of it is to come up with a way to beat it. To me, that's recruiting and developing pitchers with command who can pitch to weak contact. Keep the ball in the ballpark and suddenly those K's aren't as forgivable and the walks turn into DPs more often. Fewer K's, BBs, and dongs; more balls put in play and action. This is part of how the Red Sox won so much in the first half. Sox pitchers were leading the world in weak contact and not giving up any bombs. The challenge is that the current 3-outcome situation is driven by physics. Coaches have figured out how to biomechanically coax more and more velo out of young pitchers, so their 89 with movement is now 95 with movement but they don't always know where it's going. So more whiffs and more walks and more dongs when the ball finds a barrel. But big league hitters can hit the fastest fastball so teams like TB are having their pitchers throw more breaking balls to hitters who have to be ready for 95 (which is apparently why TB has so many pitchers out for the year). Now that everyone knows who to coax velo out of just about any kid, that's what everyone is doing. Wouldn't you be foolish to ignore it? I say, find me a coach who can teach young pitchers to command their pitches and induce weak contact consistently and they'll be strapped to a rocket to the top of the standings. Impossible, you say? It doesn't work that way? I would guess that's what we all would've said 20 years ago about every team having 8-10 pitchers who throw 95. The number one thing MLB needs to do is begin using robot umpires.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 7:33:26 GMT -5
I think Duran will begin to hit for a high enough average and with enough power to fit in perfectly at 2B. That is assuming he can play 2B. We already know he can't play CF and I believe that ship has sailed. He's simply not showing enough improvement in CF. Statistically he's arguably the worst OF in MLB. And that is after around three years of playing CF.
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Post by patford on Aug 31, 2021 7:24:56 GMT -5
Another ugly game. Not really much of a surprise. At least any nonsense that the Red Sox could catch the Rays will finally be put to rest. The Rays are clearly a superior team to the Sox. I wouldn't know how anybody objectively could say otherwise. Since the Sox swept the Rays really early in the season the Rays have won 8 of 10. I'd expect the Rays to take at least two of the three remaining games this series. The Red Sox hitting was absent, minus Dalbec's hot hitting. Against TB's pitching this isn't much of a surprise. What's alarming is the amount of bad defense the Sox have been playing. And now with the COVID news, you have to wonder if it'll get even worse and possibly put the Sox at a big disadvantage for the next two to three weeks, and place them in jeopardy of missing the playoffs. At the moment, the worse thing is that it sets Barnes back further, giving him less time to get his act together and it really throws the bullpen into chaos. The only real quick fix I can think of is to give Seabold a shot at the rotation and move Houck into the bullpen. Also Brasier is returning, which may or may not help the pen a heckuva lot. I have to admit, that about 2/3 into the season I was having World Series fantasies with thought of how to best put together a roster for the post-season. At the time I wouldn't have it thought it crazy for the Sox to make the ALCS. Now, they'd be fortunate to make the playoffs, and the only goal at this point is to beat the Yankees in a 1 game playoff. They could get swept by TB soon afterward and it wouldn't bother me. But losing to the Yankees might be even worse than blowing a huge lead in the playoff race and not making the playoffs altogether. With the Sox doing as well as they were doing and Sale and Schwarber on the horizon....I knew the Sox had some issues, but I didn't think it would get this bad this quick and now the Covid stuff...geez. What a letdown. Turns out I was wrong and right about the deadline stuff. I wanted Rizzo but wasn't stuck on him necessarily as the 1b solution. Loved Schwarber's bat but not crazy about his defense or him forcing JDM into outfield duty. Didn't anticipate Dalbec getting hot with the bat, although I do think he could go ice cold in September and his defense is his defense. But I was correct about the pen needing reinforcements and Robles and Davis hardly qualify as reinforcements. More, they are the kind of guys you try to get upgrades over. And now the pen is really, really thin, and it's costing the Sox games, along with some jagged defense. I was excited about Duran and still think he can be part of the future, but his presence helped cost the Sox their defensive outfield strength. I was wrong about the Sox needing to bring him up immediately - I didn't forsee Hernandez bringing patience at the plate suddenly. Also didn't realize Hernandez isn't a great 2b, but was so good in CF. And Arroyo has been snakebitten. They miss the big hits he has provided and certainly his defense. If you told me Sale would come back and be 3-0 and Schwarber would rake and be an on-base machine, I wouldn't have thought what happened this past month would happen. OK so if the Rays are a better team, which I am not arguing against, how do they actually measure up position to position? If you look at it as you who would you trade heads up player for player at each position? And that is for right now not the next 5 years as that is immaterial at this moment. Like Xander vs Wander. The Sox win that scenario easily so why is TBay better? Defense would be a reason but that is only 14 errors difference on the season. They have scored 30 some odd more runs and given up 74 fewer ER. Walked 67 more times and given up 94 fewer walks. Hmm could that be it? Plate discipline and pitchers throwing strikes. I think this an example of TBay doing what the Sox have done with Houck this year along with the rest of the staff. TBay has been doing it for a long time now so the pitching staff has bought in and they are the best at it. Eleven different guys have saves and the Sox actually have more QS on the season than them. This is how they have been able to have just as good a record as the Sox over the last 15 seasons. Now just think how good the Sox could be with this strategy but with a budget of 120 million more. Yes I did just find a silver lining to this whole "they are better than us" topic, maybe. As someone pointed out the other day, every time Houck leaves guys on base when he is pulled they all score. Controversial I know and the Sox pen is depleted but why not just embrace the limited inning strategy and not push for more from your starters, which is when they fall apart. Build a staff that can handle it with multiple 2,3,4,5 inning guys to supplement the Sales and Eovoldies of the world. Face it in todays game their are very few pitchers who make it thru the lineup 3 times and give a solid 7, why fight it. Why have 5 guys that can only go 1 inning or less at times. TBay has proven time and again that this strategy works and our GM is the pioneer of it so I think it is safe to say the future is here, time to embrace it. LOL this reminds me of a time when Grady left Pedro in back in 03. The Rays offense is nearly identical to the Yankees. It's a bunch of guys who don't hit for average but hit HR and walk a lot. This is apparently the three outcomes MLB wants. Which is weird because the theory is that approach is hurting the game. The Rays team average is .240. Take Zunino their catcher as an example. He's hitting .201 but has 27 HR and an .846 OBPS. This is the sort of model which MLB rewards. Long tedious AB, lots of walks and lots of HR. Look around MLB. The Red Sox have 407 BB. Tampa has 481 BB NYY have 526 BB
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Post by patford on Aug 30, 2021 19:05:28 GMT -5
Not a good series for elevated pitch counts with our starters. Pivetta needs to be more efficient A trade to the Yankees would fix that instantly.
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Post by patford on Aug 30, 2021 12:50:42 GMT -5
I don't see the Sox making the wild card game but if they did it's single elimination and the Sox could go Sale followed by Eovaldi or Houck. It's an elimination game so an all hands on deck situation and the bullpen would probably not figure in unless it was Whitlock.
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Post by patford on Aug 30, 2021 9:06:47 GMT -5
Okay, how the HELL does he generate that kind of power with such a quiet, direct swing as a teenager who barely cracks 6 ft tall? Insanely, insanely impressive. It's a Bruce Lee swing.
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Post by patford on Aug 30, 2021 9:05:09 GMT -5
You know a guy is good when Cup of Coffee has to find excuses so that he isn't the Player of the Day every day.
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