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Post by James Dunne on May 24, 2024 11:43:31 GMT -5
For a one start, yeah I don't think it's crazy. I'm probably leaning Zack Wheeler since he's got a history of success and his stuff obviously measures up and everything. But there's not a single healthy pitcher whose out there who we'd be like "this is a pitcher in his prime who will probably be a Hall of Famer." Trivia question: What under-30 pitcher has the highest career bWAR? Sandy Alcantara.
FWIW, I probably would've guessed Corbin Burnes.
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Post by James Dunne on May 24, 2024 7:49:17 GMT -5
Best brothers signing since Xander and Jair? Zeferjahn gives up his first earned run of 2024. Impressive start to the year. On a Jackson Holliday homer. Not that you ever want to see prospects allow homers, but yeah, he's someone who is gonna get you sometimes.
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Post by James Dunne on May 22, 2024 14:32:22 GMT -5
They decided he can't play the infield. He's apparently getting practice reps in right field as well, but it sounds like he's done as an infielder.
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Post by James Dunne on May 22, 2024 8:47:17 GMT -5
O'Donnell looking to keep the hitless streak going. Went five perfect in his last start, four no-hit innings in his previous piggyback outing.
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Post by James Dunne on May 22, 2024 8:44:59 GMT -5
The farm is keeping us well-fed so far this year. It just feels like there's a lot to be excited about on many different fronts. A lot of guys in the top 25 playing some very impressive baseball right now.
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Post by James Dunne on May 21, 2024 19:17:09 GMT -5
Just in case anyone here is into that sort of thing.
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Post by James Dunne on May 21, 2024 11:43:45 GMT -5
Does anyone know if Yosander Asencio is related to Vladimir? Have been waiting forever for him to get a scouting report. He is the one player I know was in camp when I was there in March that I somehow never managed to photograph, which is annoying. Haha, I found that out when I looked for a picture of him for today's Cup.
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Post by James Dunne on May 21, 2024 8:15:13 GMT -5
Brooks Brannon and Zach Bryant to the FCL for rehab assignments.
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Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2024 15:18:24 GMT -5
I would just forget about playing Rafaela on the dirt. He's been awful, worse than Hamilton. There's no playing time there for him in the future. Let him focus on playing the outfield for the rest of his career. One weird thing is that there is sort of an expectation that players will struggle offensively when they reach the majors, but that their defense should be fully polished and formed. People seemed to think that Rafaela was going to come in and be in the discussion for the best defensive player in the majors on day one. and that wasn't really fair to him. I guess I've been something of a skeptic of the bat, but I'm not particularly concerned that the center field defense will be anything less than great. I'd always considered him more of a good shortstop than a great one, and I guess I'm one of the very few people who thinks Mayer is a more natural defender than Rafaela there. But same idea - if Rafaela ends up a shortstop long term, he'll get a feel for the speed of the major league game and his defensive production will catch up with the tools. Never playing Rafaela in the infield again after a couple of bad weeks there would be akin to having permanently banished Jarren Duran from centerfield, not letting Xander Bogaerts play shortstop on the 2015-2022 Red Sox, and sending Dustin Pedroia and Triston Casas down the minors after the first month of their careers because it was clear that they just couldn't hit big league pitching. Just a totally short-sighted, self-defeating approach to team building. A level of impatience that makes me really wonder why you would frequent a prospect-focused site.
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Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2024 14:12:59 GMT -5
I think he's just a much better center fielder than he is a shortstop. Having an excellent center fielder who can also be your backup shortstop is very useful, even if it means his defense is less excellent. I'm less concerned about his defensive stats than I am his on-base percentage. The speed of the major league game is just different and it takes an adjustment for a lot of guys.
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Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2024 11:34:20 GMT -5
Carson Benge is the younger brother of former Red Sox minor leaguer Garrett Benge.
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Post by James Dunne on May 17, 2024 7:57:11 GMT -5
If they could consistently play at league average then they wouldn't be role players.
Obviously that's a bit of an overstatement - there are some dudes (Refsnyder) who would probably be below average if exposed in an every day role but can excel in the right situation. But it's not particularly common. Also, Cooper's 6 for 18 with three doubles in his last six games after going 1 for 16 in his first five. His numbers haven't fully adjusted yet, but considering that he's got a track record of being fine and in the last week and a half he's been fine, my guess is that he'll be fine. Getting kind of annoyed to continually see him lumped in with Smith, whose spot on an MLB roster seems more tenuous.
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Post by James Dunne on May 15, 2024 14:32:12 GMT -5
Sea Dogs only had five men on base all day, and three of them were Mayer (two singles and a walk). .368/.442/.605 with six doubles, five walks, and three strikeouts in his last ten games.
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Post by James Dunne on May 15, 2024 14:23:40 GMT -5
With the emphasis around baseball moving away from fastball usage, I think an inability to hit other stuff is a very significant problem. MLB pitchers throw their secondaries for strikes, which is what separates them as major league pitchers. If MiLB pitchers don’t throw secondaries for strikes, it should adversely impact the results batters get on contact from them too. Just trying to get further lost in the maze here. Curveballs don't become easier to hit when pitchers are putting them where they intend. They can throw them for strikes when they need/want to, and throw them eight inches off the outside corner when Alfonso Soriano is up. Minor leaguers can succeed by identifying spin and just totally laying off of it. That approach gets you killed in the majors.
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Post by James Dunne on May 15, 2024 12:04:45 GMT -5
What's interesting to me about those stats is that the OBP and SLG against the breaking balls are still better than MLB average (not accounting for the difference in competition, of course). It seems like he can spit on breaking balls and can beat the snot out of them when he DOES connect. The batting average isn't pretty, but the actual productivity might not be irredeemably bad. The questions then would be: - How many breaking balls would MLB pitchers throw him? 50%?
- Would they actually throw enough for strikes that he would NEED to swing all that often?
- Would he be able to punish the occasional mistakes, which will inevitably happen if he's seeing 10+ breaking balls every game?
With the emphasis around baseball moving away from fastball usage, I think an inability to hit other stuff is a very significant problem. MLB pitchers throw their secondaries for strikes, which is what separates them as major league pitchers.
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Post by James Dunne on May 15, 2024 11:56:17 GMT -5
Shifting to a starting role. Will be interesting to see how long he goes.
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Post by James Dunne on May 15, 2024 10:48:14 GMT -5
Honestly, the rule that you lose the DH if your DH needs to move into the field feels incredibly outdated to me.
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Post by James Dunne on May 14, 2024 9:38:37 GMT -5
Should be either Yordanny (if they prefer he pitch on 4 rather than 6 days' rest) or Nicolas De La Cruz (if staying on normal rotation) in the FCL. Monegro would probably be on five days rest under the current structure though, right? Salcedo (regular turn, I think) followed Mata yesterday, so it wouldn't be surprising if that's going to be the structure when they do get a rehab start.
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Post by James Dunne on May 10, 2024 14:24:20 GMT -5
What would this team's record be? C- Christian Vazquez 1B- Justin Turner 2B- Yu Chang 3B- Luis Urias SS- Xander Bogaerts LF- Adam Duvall
CF- Mookie Betts RF- Alex Versugo
DH- JD Martinez SP1- Sale SP2- Eovaldi SP3- ERodriguez SP4- Paxton
SP5- Springs SP6- Wacha SP7- Martin Perez
BP- Pressly, Schreiber, Strahm, Ottavino, Strickland, Ryan Fernandez, Joe Kelly I believe their payroll would be just under the LTT.
This post is Mauricio Dubon erasure.
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Post by James Dunne on May 10, 2024 8:27:19 GMT -5
Minor league teams very rarely use a traditional closer, and when they do it is almost always a veteran journeyman type rather than a prospect. An actual prospect's usage is going to be on more of a regular rotation - if he's supposed to pitch that day and they're losing or they're up big, he's still going to pitch even though it's not a save situation. They'll also get used earlier in games and in multi-inning opportunities, since that's what's likely to be their role if/when they get called up.
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Post by James Dunne on May 10, 2024 8:19:15 GMT -5
Statcast is giving him credit for 63 attempts at SS across those innings, which is still a small enough sample that it doesn't take many random boots to warp things. There's also precious few opportunities to impress given that most plays are "sure things." Indeed, you look at the breakdown, essentially all of the "negatives" are coming from 4 misplays on balls with an expected success rate of >95%. Given his reputation over the last few years and whatever the eye test is worth, I'm willing to chalk that up to bad luck/rookie mistakes. I'd be surprised if he didn't climb back into the positives by the end of the year if he remains the everyday shortstop. He's made some of those rookie mistakes in CF too, like the time he was too casual about the transfer and just let the ball fall out of his glove on a ~100% out play. The upshot is that he's actually been a below-average fielder in his career by all of OAA, DRS, and UZR. Which is kinda funny, given his reputation and the unbridled confidence we all have in his defense. Or, well, I'd consider my confidence in his SS defense to be somewhat bridled. But hopeful!
One weird thing is that there is sort of an expectation that players will struggle offensively when they reach the majors, but that their defense should be fully polished and formed. People seemed to think that Rafaela was going to come in and be in the discussion for the best defensive player in the majors on day one. and that wasn't really fair to him. I guess I've been something of a skeptic of the bat, but I'm not particularly concerned that the center field defense will be anything less than great. I'd always considered him more of a good shortstop than a great one, and I guess I'm one of the very few people who thinks Mayer is a more natural defender than Rafaela there. But same idea - if Rafaela ends up a shortstop long term, he'll get a feel for the speed of the major league game and his defensive production will catch up with the tools.
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Post by James Dunne on May 10, 2024 8:08:06 GMT -5
Strikeout numbers escalating again. From someone who just sees the boxscores I see too many strikeouts and too many errors. Legit concerns or just numbers? Quality reverse jinx - he hasn't struck out in five games since you posted this. .333/.381/.667 in those five games despite only a .278 BABIP. Strikeout rate is 21.8% on the year, and only 17.6% against right-handers.
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Post by James Dunne on May 8, 2024 14:07:42 GMT -5
It's very weird that all of the following are true: - Rafaela has a wRC+ of 63, 14th worst in the majors out of 117 qualified hitters - Rafaela has a WPA of -1.19, 6th worst in the majors - Rafaela has a Clutch rating of -0.56, 13th worst in the majors
- Rafaela leads the Red Sox with 20 RBI
A large chunk of those RBI came in the blowout win, which would not have affected his clutch or WPA numbers.
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Post by James Dunne on May 7, 2024 9:59:06 GMT -5
His eligibility is not up, he has not yet been in the majors for 45 days. Barring some weirdness (a situation where he needs to be optioned but the team works out other compensation, I guess), he won't be ranked on 6/1. Why would Slaten's age be working against him? He's ranked 12th in a strong system, and his grade moved up to a 4.5. The group from 7-12 was very close.
Booser is 32, that's a different situation. Awesome story, but even like a 4.0 WAR career would be beating the odds. Unlike Slaten, there's no thought that maybe he starts down the road or is part of the long-term solution. Every pitcher ahead of him profiles either as a potential starter or a high-leverage reliever.
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Post by James Dunne on May 7, 2024 8:04:02 GMT -5
Romero has been assigned to the FCL for his rehab (no word on whether he's in the lineup).
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