SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 24, 2024 10:17:08 GMT -5
Double-A plate appearances for some of Boston's top-100 guys: Moncada 207 Betts 257 Benintendi 263 Pedroia 316 Devers 320 Ellsbury 325 Casas 329 Bogaerts 356 Swihart 387 Middlebrooks 401 Chavis 413 Lowrie 428 Rafaela 579 Youkilis 620
Moncada was physically advanced (and probably needed more time there, Betts is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and Benintendi absolutely annihilated Double-A.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 19, 2024 9:15:22 GMT -5
Given his versatility and proximity, Paulino sure seems to fit in the "very likely" category at an absolute minimum.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 18, 2024 13:57:18 GMT -5
I feel like the Astros are a good demonstration of how good rotation depth is mostly down to luck. They were fine last year because they got the equivalent of Brandon Walter and Chris Murphy giving them 215 innings of ~110 ERA+ pitching. This year, those two guys (JP France and Brandon Bielak) have been terrible so far. They’ll probably cycle through some more depth options until they find someone who can give them some stability. That’s just how it works, right? When you’re looking for a solution, you hope the guys who stink aren’t so bad that your bats can’t keep up, and once you find someone effective, you ride him until he goes back to being bad. The more options you have, the better your chances of finding someone who can give you 100 unexpectedly solid innings. Hector Velazquez and Brian Johnson were terrific in that role for the 2018 team, for example. Yeah, that's always been kinda my go-to example, Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez ended up combining for 184 1/3 innings of 3.71 baseball, then neither were good in 2019 and never pitched in the majors after that. That team got pretty good durability from its main crew of starters (Sale, Price, Porcello, and Rodriguez were able to make 113 starts) and the two of them were able to fill in the gaps, especially before the trade for Eovaldi.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 18, 2024 10:39:29 GMT -5
The Houston Astros are 6-14, and have allowed the most runs in the American League (and 2nd most in baseball behind of course, the Rockies). Jose Abreu so far with a .078/.158/.098 slashline, and Hader/Pressley with ERA's over 8. Verlander returns tomorrow. Sounds like Valdez will be back around the end of the month as well. Obviously they don't want to fall too far behind, but there's definitely reason to believe the pitching will be better. Blanco and Javier have been very good at the top of the rotation, and it's just been a total disaster behind them. Also, the offense has underperformed the peripheral stats - they're second in the AL in both OBP and slugging but are currently sixth in runs scored.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 17, 2024 13:58:20 GMT -5
Quick note. Through 15 games Enmanuel Valdez has 1 error and .983 fielding percentage Through 19 games Xander Bogaerts has 2 errors and a .969 fielding percentage Sample side is still very small and it is very early so do with this what you will. The sample size could be a quadrillion and fielding percentage, unless you're at like .870 or something, would still not be important.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 16, 2024 18:10:34 GMT -5
Last year, Gonzalez allowed 16 runs in 8 2/3 innings in four April starts, walking 16. Which is to say, he's started very slowly before and it is hardly a reason to write him off.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 16, 2024 12:36:58 GMT -5
Astros promoted Forest Whitley. I'm happy they all improved their defense in the past 3 weeks. Implying that Jack Leiter and Forrest Whitley were in the minor leagues to start 2024 because of service-time manipulation is a take.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 16, 2024 7:46:13 GMT -5
I mean in a world where dudes as diverse as Jordan Hicks and Zach Littell converted from MLB relievers to MLB starters, you can’t rule out Slaten in that role. But unlike Whitlock, Slaten’s starter career in pro-ball was pretty short-lived. He was sent to the pen in AA, admittedly while being able to go multiple innings. He hasn’t started since: www.fangraphs.com/players/justin-slaten/25648/stats?position=PIn comparison, Whitlock was a starter through AA in the Yankees system before getting TJ - after which the Yankees infamously didn’t protect him in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft, and we all know the rest from there. For all the mania about “ruining” Whitlock, he had been a starter his whole pro ball career before being a reliever out of necessity as a Rule 5 selection coming off a major surgery. Big reason for that pen move was that he didn’t throw strikes- I could see them being intrigued in trying to stretch him back out now that he seems to be throwing strikes at a much more reasonable rate Def won’t be this year tho Yeah, agree with this. I'm skeptical that his control improvement is sustainable, but if it is then maybe it does make sense, yeah. He'll also have three option years, so they'll have the opportunity to get him a decent look in Worcester if/when they decide to try to convert him. Obviously it's tough to take a valuable reliever and send him to the minors to learn to fill a different role, but the Whitlock situation is definitely a hint of the benefit - he looks for all the world like a real-life mid-rotation starter.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 16, 2024 7:40:15 GMT -5
Can someone help me out with this arguement? Juan Soto is having a great year, and all of the Yankees fans love him. Are they so far past the luxury tax that if he signed a deal worth say 11/650 would the Yankees get taxed at say 100% which would really turn into a 11/1.3 billion? If they deferred like LAD just did would it turn into something like 11/980 million or so? Thanks in advance...can't find the answer The tax penalty would change each year based on what threshold they are at. So in 2025 they may have to pay a 100% penalty, but if they were under the cap in, say, 2028 then they would not pay a penalty that season.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 15, 2024 9:13:53 GMT -5
Crawford's groundball numbers are way up so far this year, though. 48.6% through three starts, compared to 34% for his career. Interesting, I hadn't noticed that. Do we have a reason to think that's not a SSS thing? He's throwing the 4-seamer quite a bit less, so it seems to follow. I don't have batted ball profiles by pitch type handy, though, so correlation/causation etc.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 15, 2024 8:05:40 GMT -5
Not that they should *never* have Rafaela at SS, but I don't think I'd choose to do it on the day when they have their biggest flyball pitcher on the mound. Crawford's groundball numbers are way up so far this year, though. 48.6% through three starts, compared to 34% for his career.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 12, 2024 21:35:28 GMT -5
Is it too late to change my vote to the objectively insane option?
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 12, 2024 13:43:40 GMT -5
Rendon's 6 for 21 with only two strikeouts in his last five games. Not that the 2021-23 Rendon is an ideal leadoff hitter either, but it's not like the team has a ton of OBP guys that he's overlooking. Obviously the 0-for to start the season has his line looking ugly, but the problem isn't that he's hitting leadoff, the problem is that there isn't another choice who is obviously better.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 12, 2024 12:43:21 GMT -5
The fall guy stuff seemed a lot more feasible before these new details came out, and when it was just the MLB "investigating" the involvement of arguably their most valuable employee/consumer product. This is coming from the Feds. Like how plausible is it that Shohei went to Ippei and was like, "Hey I need you to impersonate me on the phone with my bank and hide all financial transaction notifications from me, so on the off-chance that if anyone ever finds out out my degenerate gambling, I can say that you stole $16 million dollars from me, for which you will then plead guilty"? Agree 100%. I think that was a very reasonable conclusion when the story broke, and one that no longer makes any sense as more details have emerged. Pretty clear that Ohtani is the victim here, and I'm actually a little uncomfortable with the way some people seem to want to believe that isn't the case.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 12, 2024 8:56:59 GMT -5
Feels a bit like a no-win series.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 12, 2024 8:40:32 GMT -5
Thoughts on the WooSox last night:
-Fitts looked solid. Not yet ready, but the pieces are there. His delivery is upright and a little stiff. Fastball was sitting 93 and touching 95, he also mixed in a slider and changeup. Fastball command faltered some the deeper he got into the game, but he was holding his velocity without any issue through five. I'm told he throws a cutter, but if he did throw one then I did not see it. One interesting thing is that his control was strong, but when he missed the plate, he tended to miss very badly. Not sure if that was just random weirdness, but it hadn't started sprinking yet while he was in the game so it wasn't related to weather. He's kind of a textbook case of command and control being different. His control seemed overall good, his command was inconsistent. -Meidroth looked fine at shortstop. Not rangy, but sure-handed enough that he can fake it. One ball go through for a single that I think a good shortstop would've gotten to. He honestly wasn't challenged a ton. He does a lot of things well. At the plate it was pretty much the same as what I saw last year: the tools are not loud, but the fundamentals are strong and the approach is so good that everything plays up. He really needs to hit the ball with more authority for it to play at the next level, though. I don't think it's a coincidence that he got a look at shortstop right now during this time of obvious need. I don't think he's necessarily ready, but I do think he's a better overall player right now than David Hamilton. Is that gap big enough that you use a 40-man spot on him and start chewing up options when he's not Rule-5 eligible until after 2025? I wouldn't, but I don't think it's insane to disagree. -Dalbec finally muscled a homer to right-center. Nice to see him get ahold of one. He looked very, very out of sorts in his first three plate appearances, and the fans were getting on him for sure. Had to feel good. -Luis Guerrero. Man, that fastball/forkball (split-change? It looks like a traditional old-school forkball to me) combo is incredible when it works, just absolutely unhittable. Fastball was sitting 96 and touching 98. Forkball was 85-86. His control was basically an abstraction. He was all over the place, both out of the zone and within it. The pitch mix will give him a bigger margin for error than most, but good hitters will hit mistakes, even at 97. At his best, he looks like an MLB-ready reliever and if he develops some consistency, he'll be a good one. -The lineup has a LOT of swing-and-miss in it.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 11, 2024 14:29:39 GMT -5
I will be at the Syracuse-Worcester game tonight if the weather permits. (Looks like a very big "if" at the moment) There is a window on the radar big enough to at least start the game. Ball should be carrying well to RF tonight. Would like to see Fitts tonight, but I might wait until the weekend to catch a game. Looks clear until about 8:00... hopefully it turns on the later side and Fitts gets a full start in.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 11, 2024 14:27:02 GMT -5
I'll start worrying about Rafaela when Devers begins to hit. Devers has both OBP and SLG above league average despite a BABIP that's 150 points below his career average. He's got a .211 Iso and more walks than strikeouts. He is not someone I am concerned about.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 11, 2024 12:14:30 GMT -5
I love Rafa but to me the young bat they should’ve extended is Casas. Before Bello, CR or Crawford, Houck etc Sure, but you can't always do these things in order. If Casas is looking for bigger money, it doesn't make sense to wait around and miss out on good deals while they figure it out.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 11, 2024 8:11:41 GMT -5
I will be at the Syracuse-Worcester game tonight if the weather permits.
(Looks like a very big "if" at the moment)
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 10, 2024 15:15:35 GMT -5
"Yoán Moncada To Miss Three To Six Months Due To Adductor Strain" - oof So... that's probably sign that his MRI showed a tear, right? Is there a doctor in the house? It feels like anything more than four months would indicate a tear.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 10, 2024 11:21:14 GMT -5
My response may have been harsh - I tend to react harshly at the idea of penalizing players (or any labor!) by not paying their contracts. I think it's unfair to players and I think it creates perverse incentives for management.
In any case, the downside for the player is that they don't make it to the majors, or they don't last long, or they don't succeed if they do. The players in the minor leagues who are separating themselves or breaking out are the ones whose metrics test well. Sure, there are going to be the guys whose performance and athleticism and everything is just so standout that they're going to be top prospects. But when we're getting into that next tier, the reason guys like Christopher Troye and Alex Hoppe are exciting is because of their measurable stuff. Are those things going to end up leading to injuries? We don't know, but the alternative for them dialing back is that they don't make it to the majors. Should their continued hard work lead to them losing their contracts? I certainly don't think so.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 10, 2024 10:07:21 GMT -5
There’s no downside to it. The downside is that players don't get paid millions of dollars that is due to them. The downside is that players hide their injuries because they'll stop being paid if they'll report them. The downside is that teams care less, rather than more, about protecting their players, because they can cut their losses on an injured guy. The downside is that a player who has to choose between being a pitcher and a shortstop, between a pitcher and a basketball player, between a pitcher and a carpenter is going to NOT choose the one that is likely to lead to them not getting paid. The downside is that not paying guys who have worked their ass off to become the best in the world are suddenly blamed for working so hard. The downside is that owners are actually INCENTIVIZED to sign higher-risk players because they'll be easier to just not pay when they're hurt. The downside is that richer teams get even richer, because they can afford those funny-money contracts because they don't have to worry about the risk. The downside is that a player who takes a line drive off the knee is suddenly out of a paycheck, which is, to me, a really sh*tty suggestion. But yeah, other than that, no downside.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 10, 2024 8:21:10 GMT -5
I'm mustering mild positivity about this extension, but I'll be honest: I find it a little odd to commit $50 million to a guy who hasn't yet proven he can hit at all in the major leagues, and about whom serious questions remain in that department. I'm choosing to take this as a good sign that they're confident the bat will prove out. And the risk here is not *that* high. But... <gulp>. To me, he profiles so well as a backup that there's just not much downside there. Even if he doesn't hit at all, to the point where he's confined to the bench (and I'm one of those people who is concerned that's a real possibility!), the versatility and defense play. He's probably putting up 0.5 to 1.0 WAR seasons on the bench. It's just hard to see a Chris Singleton type of situation where it's just a total loss.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 10, 2024 7:39:33 GMT -5
Want serious change? Make contracts non-guaranteed. If you go on the 60-day DL you get paid the league minimum. Sounds like a good way to punish players for getting hurt while incentivizing teams to start overpushing guys they'd prefer to just not pay anymore.
|
|
|