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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 2, 2021 17:47:30 GMT -5
Has anyone heard anything about MLB or the Players Union putting trading draft picks on the table for the CBA? If MLB wants to draw any of the attention to its draft that the NFL or NBA currently possess this seems like the simplest - and least painful - way to do it. They could allow trading picks in the first 10 rounds with the requisite money. Especially now with the slotting, not sure what the hang-up would be. There is talk they might allow trading of picks for other picks. Not certain. I don't think I agree this would create much more excitement about the draft though. The issues with the MLB draft as opposed to the NBA and NFL are (1) less familiarity with the players (college basketball/football much more popular), and (2) the drafted players are, for the most part, contributing right away or close to it, as opposed to 2, 3, 4, 5 years down the road. The better analogy to the MLB draft is college recruiting, I think. As you mention, MLB has an uphill battle to reach the popularity of the NFL/NBA drafts, but I think you're missing the reason why people actually watch/follow all 3 of these drafts. Impatience is certainly a factor, but quite a bit of it comes down to drama, and the trading of draft picks DURING the draft would definitely assist in that regard. If it weren't for the impatience and drama, everyone who is interested would simply check the results after it's over. You've got to put on a show if you want viewers to tune in.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 30, 2021 14:10:47 GMT -5
I'm not a fan of the free agent pitching class. It's mostly guys who are old enough that their contracts will be painful halfway through or guys who have major health concerns. Eduardo seems to have the best mix of health (relatively), age and stuff - so I'm worried he will become overvalued and get priced at a range the Red Sox shouldn't match. The Red Sox 4 weakest positions are LF, RF, 1B and 2B (catcher too, but not many options there). 1B - Dalbec is cheap, long-term controlled and quite impressive for most of the second half of the season, and given that Casas should debut next year, 1B isn't an area of need (aside from short-term cheap lefty to platoon). 2B - Christian Arroyo was impressive both offensively and defensively. He put up 1.2 fWAR in 1/3 of a season. I think he's a 3-war player. LF - Verdugo's defense fell-off last year and his sprint speed dropped slightly. I don't know if he's getting fat and happy or if it's a blip, but his upside isn't super high, so if they can get a starter or top-end reliever for him, I'd do itRF - Renfroe seems to be a low-end starting corner OF with 2 years of not-so-cheap control remaining. He's the easiest guy to upgrade who won't hurt long-term and they might be selling high. Let's say JD walks and the Red Sox sign Schwarber + Correa/Seager, they shift Correa to 3rd/SS, which fixes the infield defense while DHing (mostly) Schwarber. You can then try Xander or Devers in LF to see if it's a good fit, with the DH spot and Schwarber (or Dalbec) in LF - lots of options with high-end offensive output. Obviously this would be expensive and likely mean Eduardo walks and the Red Sox need to get an affordable back-end reliever and affordable starter. If you can fill one of those two holes with a Renfroe/Verdugo trade for a cost-controlled pitcher, it keeps the overall salary in-check. To me, this is the best team for short/long term which the Red Sox can put out there next year. I'll take the under on Arroyo and the over on Verdugo. Arroyo outperformed his xwOBA, which was only .298, considerably. I think he's due for offensive regression, and would have him as more like a 1-2 WAR player. I like the defense though, and that's something they desperately need at 2B given the weaknesses elsewhere in the infield. Verdugo, meanwhile, had the best peripheral offensive stats of his career, other than his ISO dipping a bit. His defense was only down because of his being played out of position in CF; he was still good in the corner positions. And I still think he had an injury mid-season that affected him on offense and defense (and could account for the sprint speed drop-off). Also he's still only 25. I think he'll pop a 4 WAR season one of these years.
In terms of Arroyo, I think we both agree that the defense is for real and he should be a plus defender going forward. He had a 106 wRC this year - if it regresses to the range of his previous two years (very limited ABs) then he's between 87 and 94 wRC, which still puts him in the range of a 2.5 fWAR player (assuming his defense and base running remain the same) - plus defense at 2b is very valuable. This should make him cheaper, better and with more control than Renfroe. I hope you're right about Verdugo playing through injury being the reason for his falloff with speed and defense (makes sense that one would beget the other). In terms of playing CF, he was a solid center fielder at times for the Dodgers and the previous DRS/UZR showed him as an above average CFer. We're dealing with SSS when breaking apart his OF numbers of course. I've been a fan of Verdugo since he made the majors with the Dodgers, so I'd like to see him bounce back a bit and continue to improve on the Red Sox. But I lost him with Renfroe because I assume Verdugo would fetch a much higher price on the trade market for a pitcher.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 29, 2021 20:08:12 GMT -5
I'm not a fan of the free agent pitching class. It's mostly guys who are old enough that their contracts will be painful halfway through or guys who have major health concerns. Eduardo seems to have the best mix of health (relatively), age and stuff - so I'm worried he will become overvalued and get priced at a range the Red Sox shouldn't match. The Red Sox 4 weakest positions are LF, RF, 1B and 2B (catcher too, but not many options there). -Dalbec is cheap, long-term controlled and quite impressive for most of the second half of the season, and given that Casas should debut next year, 1B isn't an area of need (aside from short-term cheap lefty to platoon). Isn't that always the risk of free agent pitchers though? It's pretty rare for any relatively young ace to be a free agent. Even the ones that do i.e. Gerrit Cole have somewhat mixed results for their price tag. The Sox most definitely need to acquire a "solid" starter this offseason. Whether that's resigning erod, signing a stroman,gausman,Ray or trading for one. Yes - exactly. But there are several young high-end position players in free agency. So if possible, sign them and trade from strength. As the OF market is a bit weak, Renfroe/Verdugo may have more value than usual.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 29, 2021 19:57:06 GMT -5
As he tied for the major league lead with 16 outfield assists and played for a winning team...I don't think there was much thinking past that. He also tied for the MLB lead (for OFers) with 6 throwing errors and lead MLB in OF fielding errors with 6. Very give and take. I'd like to see Bloom trade Renfroe or Verdugo for SP/RP help with the other handling RF. (presumably Schwarber, Xander or Devers in LF) I agree the Sox need help on the pitching staff but that can come via FA, why trade either one of those guys when they will both be good to very good for minimal money. I mean sure if another team is willing to give up somebody really good but what makes you think that will happen. There is a plethora of FAs out there at different price levels. I'm not a fan of the free agent pitching class. It's mostly guys who are old enough that their contracts will be painful halfway through or guys who have major health concerns. Eduardo seems to have the best mix of health (relatively), age and stuff - so I'm worried he will become overvalued and get priced at a range the Red Sox shouldn't match. The Red Sox 4 weakest positions are LF, RF, 1B and 2B (catcher too, but not many options there). 1B - Dalbec is cheap, long-term controlled and quite impressive for most of the second half of the season, and given that Casas should debut next year, 1B isn't an area of need (aside from short-term cheap lefty to platoon). 2B - Christian Arroyo was impressive both offensively and defensively. He put up 1.2 fWAR in 1/3 of a season. I think he's a 3-war player. LF - Verdugo's defense fell-off last year and his sprint speed dropped slightly. I don't know if he's getting fat and happy or if it's a blip, but his upside isn't super high, so if they can get a starter or top-end reliever for him, I'd do it RF - Renfroe seems to be a low-end starting corner OF with 2 years of not-so-cheap control remaining. He's the easiest guy to upgrade who won't hurt long-term and they might be selling high. Let's say JD walks and the Red Sox sign Schwarber + Correa/Seager, they shift Correa to 3rd/SS, which fixes the infield defense while DHing (mostly) Schwarber. You can then try Xander or Devers in LF to see if it's a good fit, with the DH spot and Schwarber (or Dalbec) in LF - lots of options with high-end offensive output. Obviously this would be expensive and likely mean Eduardo walks and the Red Sox need to get an affordable back-end reliever and affordable starter. If you can fill one of those two holes with a Renfroe/Verdugo trade for a cost-controlled pitcher, it keeps the overall salary in-check. To me, this is the best team for short/long term which the Red Sox can put out there next year.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 29, 2021 16:31:57 GMT -5
In 2019 Renfroe had a +1.2 dwar per BR, so he has been better in the field. Would it be a surprise if he learns to play Fenway better and his D is positive again. How many runs does he save with that arm? I am predicting a better season both at the plate and in right. He progressed this year in his approach and his barrel rate and hard hit% were very good. Especially considering it took him a long time to get going and even longer before the power showed up. Either way he is a great get for the cost and he will greatly exceed his cost/value again next year. Or he will get you something good in a trade but I just don't see that. I guess they could sign Schwarber and move Duggy back to right. That's a very optimistic take, that his offense and defense improve. He just had his best offensive season of his career by both Fangraphs and Baseball Refrence. 2019 looks like a fluke given all the other years. He basically made no mistakes, yet he didn't do that the two years before or the two years after. Maybe he improves or maybe given how tricky fenway can be in the OF he's just going to commit more errors. How in the world did he snag a GG nomination? Blows my mind. At best you can call him an average defender. You never know Baseball is the most unpredictable sport, I just wouldn't count of him improving both given his career stats. I'm not trading him, I don't get that. Yet I'm for sure adding insurance in case his bat from 2019 and 2020 shows up. As he tied for the major league lead with 16 outfield assists and played for a winning team...I don't think there was much thinking past that. He also tied for the MLB lead (for OFers) with 6 throwing errors and lead MLB in OF fielding errors with 6. Very give and take. I'd like to see Bloom trade Renfroe or Verdugo for SP/RP help with the other handling RF. (presumably Schwarber, Xander or Devers in LF)
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 29, 2021 11:34:01 GMT -5
What do you guys think of Yoshi Tsutsugo? The rays saw enough in him to offer a 2 year/12mil contract. He didn't live up to it and has struggled, but he had a pretty solid second half of 2021. He's a lefty with positional flexibility (1B, 3B, LF, RF) so he might pair well with Dalbec until Casas is ready, at which point he could serve as a backup elsewhere. I'm assuming he takes a contract close to the minimum (unless he returns to Japan). Only issue I see is that he's had reverse splits so far in his career but it's difficult to gauge due to the small sample sizes. I've tried to lookup his splits from the Japanese Central League but haven't found a good site (I found this one, but the google translation is pretty hilarious - and hard to follow: baseballdata.jp/2018/ctop.html). Anyone know a good site for Japanese lefty/righty splits?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 29, 2021 10:03:49 GMT -5
I hope at least they’ve given him the F-18. The F-35 is a POS boondoggle and buggier than a new Microsoft update. I believe it's helicopters and I don't think he's training to be a pilot - your version sound far more cool though.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 28, 2021 19:28:06 GMT -5
Per Sportrac they went over by 3.2 million. Which makes the reasoning for the trade look even worse. Spotrac is a great resource for the quick and dirty information regarding contracts throughout the major North American sports, but it struggles with calculating the more complex factors. Red Sox Stats is always helpful and although it seems dated, Cots contracts is still one of the best. But Chaim Bloom said they stayed under - so if they're over then there are bigger issues at play. (I still think going over the luxury tax, and not knowing they were over, was the main reason Dombrowski was fired)
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 28, 2021 16:18:08 GMT -5
Just spitballing, but what do people think of Devers at 2B? He's not a traditional fit there, but we've seen plenty of bigger/less mobile guys slide to that spot in the age of shifting. He's got fairly good lateral range, and the maybe the shorter throw would help him cut down on errors.
Bogaerts could shift to 3B, where I think he should be very solid. Then maybe Jeter Downs takes over SS for a few years (Ian's latest report said Downs could become an average or even above-average defender at short).
This obviously isn't a plan for this year (unless they're prepared to sign a high-end shortstop), but it could be in play for 2023 if Downs takes a step forward.
Honestly it took me a while to embrace the idea of Raffy at 1st base so I'm pretty far away from thinking 2nd base is a good idea. My first thought is him getting that 6' 240 lb body to turn double plays from the opposite side seems like an adventure I would rather not watch. Especially with his trouble throwing the ball, I can see some airmails into the 1st base stands vividly in my mind. It is a bit of a dilemma when your 2 cornerstones are a bit of a liability defensively. If they recognize that and are willing to get paid accordingly with a discount then that helps but either way it is a problem. They just have to keep on mashing to make up for it but at some point they need to be moved and the where is limited, LF and 2nd and a DH platoon. Maybe Xander at 3rd? What wouldn't be great would be a 25m+ dollar full time DH. What if the DH's name was Rafael Devers? Given his age, averaging 4+ war per year (as a DH) over the next 6 years seems pretty reasonable.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 28, 2021 15:52:25 GMT -5
I guess I'm confused people loved the Benintendi trade. You traded away 2.4 bwar got -.7 bwar from Cordero and spent the savings on Gonzalez and got -.4 bwar. We got Josh Winckowski and Valdez basically. It was about young talent going forward. I'm not a big Hosmer fan yet he looks like a darn good pairing with Dalbec at 1B giving you a nice platoon. I don't think it's crazy to say you can get 4 bwar minimum from him. He's been up and down his whole career. Major career splits .290 .355 .463 .818 versus RHP .251 .297 .366 .662 versus LHP. Giving Dalbecs huge splits the other way is anyone upset if they bring him in as a platoon bat? The issue is the money right? If it was $5 million it makes perfect sense right?We need a young long-term catcher right? Louis Campusano was bad when called up, yet hit .295 .365 .541 .906 in AAA this year. If you believe in him that looks like an impact bat at catcher, not something you can easily find. It's not crazy to think he could make a big impact next and going forward right? Buying low because he looked horrible in 11 games in the majors. Getting Morejon and Baez former top 100 arms coming off TJ surgery, both had it right around when Sale did. So second half of next year sometime. They could go a long way towards giving you a good cheap bullpen for years. I really like both guys, heck Morejon could be a starter maybe down the road. All three are major league ready, these aren't rookie league or low A guys years away. I'd also ask for another guy with upside that's crazy young and lower in their rankings. I'm basing this on the luxury tax going up a bunch and that our owner starts to spend over it to chase a championship. So this isn’t stopping you from spending, if that isn't the case I wouldn't do it. I'm just using money to buy cheap players that could make a huge impact for years. Maybe the Padres don't want to make that trade, it could end up looking rather stupid. Yet if they truly want a team to eat Hosmer contract it's going to be costly. I agree it's rather unlikely they offer enough to make it worth it. I'm just playing the side if they did, that GM has been crazy all in for years. So while unlikely, it's not completely crazy either. If they are determined to move him, a smart GM could get a package that more than makes sense. I'd rather spend money for prospects than trade Devers. I don't get the rebuilding part because you'd be getting four players to potential help next year. It's why I target those players. I wouldn't do it for guys years away. Those are three guys that were at a time all rated way above anyone we got for Benintendi. Morejon and Baez were rated higher than Ward and Mata were to start last year. It's like adding three top ten prospects, only Morejon has a year service time, the other two are free agents in 2027. I think people (at least myself) like the Benintendi trade because the Red Sox were able to replace him with Renfroe and only lose 0.3 fWAR while saving 700k, while picking up OF depth in Frenchy (not his fault he played when he shouldn't have), a good pitching prospect in Winckowski and 3 additional prospects. You can argue that they could have had Benintendi and Renfroe, but because they were set on staying under the tax, that wasn't possible without a major cut elsewhere. In terms of Hosmer, he has been worth 0.4 fWAR over the past 4 seasons. If he were on a minimum contract then he would be nice as an upgrade over Shaw (or whomever they get) until Casas is called up, but anything more than that would be a poor allotment of resources. So at 59mil in cash and 72mil against the luxury tax, he is a very expensive purchase. He's also 32, so in a couple of years he likely won't be worth even a roster spot (may not be worth one by the end of this year) so you're going to have to pay him to go away. If Hosmer was a free agent looking for a cheap major league deal, he would be a nice guy to have platoon with Dalbec, but that contract is brutal. Sale, on the other hand, is a huge gamble right now, but his stock is very low and it's possible he bounces back to have a couple of ace years. His strikeout ability is still there, he just needs to figure out the rest.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 28, 2021 12:39:19 GMT -5
Just a quick comment on Devers - there isn't 'one thing' that makes him a poor fielder. He has poor range, is poor at turning the double play and is poor when it comes to errors. He lead 3rd basemen in both throwing and fielding errors last season. In 2019, he had by far his best season in terms of both range and errors - this is agreed upon by OAA, DRS and UZR. Best I can think of is to figure out what he was doing that year and try to replicate it as he isn't old enough to be physically declining and he hasn't had a major injury that should account for the decline. Perhaps there's a change that can be made. It's not an easy fix. And due to his current defensive shortcomings, there isn't anywhere to hide him aside from DH. I think he could be credible left fielder in Fenway. His below average speed (it's actually not that bad) in leftfield at Fenway would work and his arm is strong enough, but he doesn't strike me as they type who would be great at fielding balls off the wall and I'm not sure how accurate his throws would be. I'm picturing a Manny Ramirez type outcome, although admittedly I have little to base that on. Hard to tell until we see it.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 28, 2021 12:17:51 GMT -5
Just a quick comment on Devers - there isn't 'one thing' that makes him a poor fielder. He has poor range, is poor at turning the double play and is poor when it comes to errors. He lead 3rd basemen in both throwing and fielding errors last season.
In 2019, he had by far his best season in terms of both range and errors - this is agreed upon by OAA, DRS and UZR. Best I can think of is to figure out what he was doing that year and try to replicate it as he isn't old enough to be physically declining and he hasn't had a major injury that should account for the decline. Perhaps there's a change that can be made.
It's not an easy fix. And due to his current defensive shortcomings, there isn't anywhere to hide him aside from DH.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 26, 2021 11:32:41 GMT -5
This is certainly not my area of expertise, but I wonder if the bottom end of the payroll could be looked at similar to the top end. Currently there is not a hard cap but penalties that kick in if a team exceeds certain limits. Those penalties increase if a team continues to exceed those limits. This acts to control spending without a hard cap. Perhaps there is a similar strategy that could work on the bottom end. If a team continually operates well below certain thresholds perhaps they sacrifice a percentage of revenue sharing or fall back several draft positions, etc....something to encourage them to spend up to a certain point without being a firm bottom. Only issue here is that the incentive has to be one that benefits the players if the ownership of a team doesn't meet the threshold. If the owners offered penalties such as lost, or reduced, draft picks, the players wouldn't see that as a concession at all. Perhaps an argument can be made that only a percentage of the dollars beneath the established floor go to the players, but the money beneath the floor would have to go to the players for the players to agree. The NFL has a 90% floor, and in the rare situation a team approaches the floor, they find a way to use the money. (Browns bought draft picks from the Texans a few years ago for taking Brock Osweiler's contract)
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 26, 2021 3:22:06 GMT -5
Here's the thing - the whole situation is collectively bargained so don't feel bad for the players. Their lawyers are smart, they have a ton of power, and should have known what they were doing. If they got fleeced that's failed oversight by their leadership (which many have argued happened during Tony Clark's tenure). I'll go on the record and say I'm pro players with this lockout. Since 2016 average salaries have been flat while revenues continue to grow ~4-5% per year (ignoring Covid impacts). The players deserve a piece of that growth. With that said, the players are equally at fault here. They historically put their focus on the more tenured members and haven't cared about addressing the inequity early in career (and especially their future members, i.e. the minor leaguers). They focus on big free agent contracts rather than changing the system, content with getting paid so long as you stay in the league long enough to hit free agency. Well the owners have gotten smarter, and have realized they can get the same or more value from younger (and cheaper) players. That's the system, I can't blame the owners for taking those actions (although feel free to blame them for the system though). My second comment is that the players have always held firm to no revenue sharing (i.e. against capping salaries like the NFL where they guarantee getting 48% of revenues, whatever those revenues are). They felt that would restrict their earnings potential. Well that backfired on them this decade. Maybe it won't in the future but they took a risk thinking they could get more money by not agreeing to share revenues and got burned. Without an agreement on revenue sharing, with some type of floor and ceiling, there will be difficulties with each proceeding agreement. a 5-year floor, like the NFL has, just makes sense - with the amount being based on a percentage of the competitive balance tax and the CBT being based on a percentage of the overall revenues. Then a fund of the difference between the $$ paid and the $$ agreed upon as a percentage of the overall revenue is distributed through the players based on plate appearances/innings. Then all of the back-and-forth BS can be whittled down to '48.2% or 48.5%'.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 25, 2021 21:01:51 GMT -5
If xandy has openly acknowledged to the sox that he's willing to switch positions that'd be huge. His bat plays pretty much anywhere. His ability to stick at ss has been the only reason I've been hesitant on the idea of retaining him long term. Thats not to say I want them to give him a 10 year deal or anything like that but hopefully he truly does want to stay and agrees to a fair deal. But where do you put him? 3B was brutal last time they tried. 2B he'd have similar issues as he has at SS and his arm would be less valuable. 1B, you would lose the arm, but I think he would be really good there - however with Casas and Dalbec, there isn't a need. So then you look at OF. CF sounds a bit too ambitious. RF, he would be learning a new position and reading the batter from the opposite side, which causes problems for some players. So then the best answer is probably LF. I'm sure he would be quite good in LF, and his arm would play-up for using the wall, but his steamer projected 119 wRC just isn't that impressive out there unless he turns out to be a gold-glove fielder. Given that Xander likely wants 25+/yr (as I assume multiple teams would offer) it would be tough to give him that if he's just an above-average LFer. Then again, if the Red Sox were to sign Correa or another SS, they could move Xander to LF and find out - maybe he plays the wall like Yaz and the time saved from infield practice is used to improve his hitting. If it doesn't work, they move him back to the infield and either trade or DH Devers.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 25, 2021 17:28:21 GMT -5
Lots to catch up on in this thread but two things were stated as facts that I would like verified by others. Did Scherzer actually ok a trade to Boston at the deadline? Also it was stated that the Sox have attempted to move X to 3rd but it was a failure. Can anybody actually confirm that these statements have any truth to them? Or are they just opinions stated as facts and nobody has questioned them. There are many pages of discussion on this site about Xander's struggles at third and I posted his numbers from 2013 and 2014. The move was more to get him into the lineup rather than a long-term decision (to my knowledge).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 25, 2021 17:23:21 GMT -5
I don't see this at all. I mean, Dombrowski could throw $350 million at Correa if he were Sox GM. They wouldn't need to hire Bloom to do this. They have Bogaerts and Devers on the left side of the infield. Bogaerts could move to 3b just as easily as Correa eventually could and most likely for less dollars. Signing Correa makes it certain that both X and Devers won't be extended and more likely that they won't extend either assuming X opts out. I mean Correa is going to command 10 years $350 million or somewhere in that vicinity. They didn't want to extend that far for Mookie but they're willing to do so for Correa? I guess I just don't see this at all. I really doubt the Sox make a huge splash this offseason. I can't see it either and I think a lot of the reasons listed as to why it could happen are irrelevant. Correa's landing spot will have nothing to do with whether he has a prior relationship with the manager, whether the manager is PR or whether the manager is good at recruiting other PR players (and I don't even know whether Cora is good at that). It'll come down to what it always comes down to: money and years. Players always talk a good game about wanting to go somewhere where they're respected, a good place to raise a family, etc. But it's funny how in almost every instance they end up with the team that offered the most money. So, the question becomes, "Will the RS offer mega-years and dollars for Correa?" CB was brought here to win without handing out that cripple the payroll for years at a time. He's trying to keep the team competitive while working his past the big contracts he inherited. He's not going to hand out more at this stage of his restructuring of the payroll and roster. Obviously Kiké didn't make his decision solely because of Cora, but Cora was previously the manager for Puerto Rico as well, which holds extra sway. As fans, we often forget that these are people and they don't make decisions solely based on money, just like we don't decide on our jobs solely based on money - but money IS very important. Assuming the Red Sox and other teams are close, Cora could very well be the difference. At what stage should Bloom start handing our big $$ then? They (presumably) were under the tax this year, they made the ALCS and their payments to players no-longer on the roster are falling off (Pedroia after 2021 and Price after 2022). As there won't be a free agency for infielders like the current one any time soon, it's the time to sign someone or re-sign their own guys. Either way, they'll be spending big $$ on the left side of the infield while using affordable cost-controlled players on the right side.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 25, 2021 15:12:47 GMT -5
Correa may get more than $300mil, but when predicting a player's contract we shouldn't expect him to set a new market unless they're one of the top few players in baseball (like Trout and Mookie). I've given the reasons which will suppress his market a bit (he will still get paid very well of course). Correa hasn't been both good and healthy in consecutive years (closest being 2016 and 2017) - this will certainly bring doubt for potential destinations. I have not said that Correa is who I hope the Red Sox will sign, only that I see the Red Sox as the frontrunners to sign him. It depends on what he costs and what Xander/Devers want - but an upgrade in defense on the left side would be a great help for the pitching. Seager would be another good option for similar reasons to Correa, but I see him as being less likely to want to sign with Boston - it's REALLY important for free agents to want to be a Red Sox in order to sign them. Bogaerts has been -22.6 DRS per 200 plays and -32 UZR/150 at 3B (2013 and 2014). We're dealing with small sample sizes, but the numbers are that of one of the worst defenders in MLB history. It's likely they regress, but he has been very bad at 3B. Mayer is a great prospect who is very far off - nobody at the MLB level should be making plans for him yet. Once he is ready, they can figure it out. If Devers costs over 300mil to extend, then I would prefer Correa at a similar price as he is a much better defender. What about Seagar, who may be a few million less a year, is a tick less than Correa offensively and defensively, but has a better durability record? Or wait til 2022 when you know for sure Bogaerts is opting out or not, knowing that Swanson and Turner will be FAs, too. It's interesting all around. See in BoldLike Seager, there's no reason to think Turner wants to go to Boston. Also, he will be 2 years and 2 months older than Corea is now, when he becomes a free agent. The Dodgers traded for him and should be seen as a frontrunner to resign him. Swanson is not in the same category as they the others (career 88 wRC).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 25, 2021 13:57:53 GMT -5
I think you're underestimating what Correa gets in free agency. There's no way he gets less than 300 million and I'd suspect he gets more. He's a former #1 draft pick whose only red flag has been injuries and he's been healthy the past couple of seasons. His offensive resume is a bit better than Lindor and Lindor got $340 million there's no way 10 years $260 million cuts it for Correa. If you're saying he'd be a great pickup and that's who you hope they sign, I'd say I totally get it, but it seems to me that you think the Sox are the favorites to land him and I think it's highly unlikely they take on a 300 million plus contract. You mentioned that Bogaerts was a flop at 3b in 2014. I remember his offense being a flop in 2014. Whether he took that to the field or not I don't know but I have trouble believing he wouldn't be a viable option at 3b if need be in the future. I think we can all agree that once Mayer forces his way up X's days at SS are over, if not sooner. I also think the preference if all things are equal would be for the Sox to extend Devers which will cost them over $300 million in my opinion. Correa and Devers would be two players commanding that much of a commitment. I really don't think the Sox make that large a commitment until they have more of the farm system graduating toward the majors and the payroll is real low otherwise. I just don't think they're there yet. They're using "bridge" type players to get to that point, inexpensive astute pickups such as Hernandez and Renfroe and Arroyo. Correa may get more than $300mil, but when predicting a player's contract we shouldn't expect him to set a new market unless they're one of the top few players in baseball (like Trout and Mookie). I've given the reasons which will suppress his market a bit (he will still get paid very well of course). Correa hasn't been both good and healthy in consecutive years (closest being 2016 and 2017) - this will certainly bring doubt for potential destinations. I have not said that Correa is who I hope the Red Sox will sign, only that I see the Red Sox as the frontrunners to sign him. It depends on what he costs and what Xander/Devers want - but an upgrade in defense on the left side would be a great help for the pitching. Seager would be another good option for similar reasons to Correa, but I see him as being less likely to want to sign with Boston - it's REALLY important for free agents to want to be a Red Sox in order to sign them. Bogaerts has been -22.6 DRS per 200 plays and -32 UZR/150 at 3B (2013 and 2014). We're dealing with small sample sizes, but the numbers are that of one of the worst defenders in MLB history. It's likely they regress, but he has been very bad at 3B. Mayer is a great prospect who is very far off - nobody at the MLB level should be making plans for him yet. Once he is ready, they can figure it out. If Devers costs over 300mil to extend, then I would prefer Correa at a similar price as he is a much better defender.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 25, 2021 13:25:34 GMT -5
Bogaerts could move to 3b just as easily as Correa eventually could and most likely for less dollars. As many have noted - the Red Sox have tried moving Bogaerts to 3rd before but with disastrous consequences. If Bogaerts picks it up this time, great, but the assumption should be that he can't. Signing Correa makes it certain that both X and Devers won't be extended and more likely that they won't extend either assuming X opts out. It does not. It makes it highly unlikely that both are resigned. If the Red Sox can resign both the offseason, great, no need to sign Correa - but I find that unlikely as they were unable to sign Bogaerts to a long-term contract last time and they haven't extended Devers yet. I mean Correa is going to command 10 years $350 million or somewhere in that vicinity. They didn't want to extend that far for Mookie but they're willing to do so for Correa? This would give Correa, who has had some inconsistencies and injuries over the past few years, the 3rd highest contract in baseball history. I doubt he gets close to this both for the previously mentioned reasons and because there are more great infielders on the FA market than we have seen in many years and team spending may still be down due to the CBA and COVID. Correa turned down 6/120 and 5/125 from the Astros, so clearly he's getting more than that. I've seen 10/260 floated. Lindor got 10/341 which seemed crazy at the time, but Lindor was better, slightly younger and had fewer red flags - so I'd be surprised if he comes close to Lindor money. I really doubt the Sox make a huge splash this offseason. I would rather they go over the tax (or whatever it becomes) with the excess funds they have. Hopefully it's smarter spending than Hanley/Pablo - I would say Correa and Schwarber would be much better investments for the long-term. As mentioned, if the Red Sox can extend Bogaerts and Devers to long term contract, that would be great, but I don't anticipate that happening. As Bogaerts is a free agent after next season, they need to look at other options.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 25, 2021 12:21:56 GMT -5
Given reports that Correa won't be returning to the Astros, I think the Red Sox are a likely destination because: - They have the money and will like his youth for likely an ~8-year contract (he just turned 27) - They can play him at 2B for 2022 - They will gain leverage to extend Bogaerts/Devers and let Bogaerts walk in FA or trade Devers; whomever doesn't get an extension - Correa could play SS or 3B 2023 and onward, at a high level - Correa is connected to Cora via his days on the Astros - Correa is Puerto Rican, and Cora is good at recruiting other Puerto Ricans
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 25, 2021 12:16:30 GMT -5
I keep hearing about Bogaerts's defense but by both FanGraphs (dWAR 7.7 UZR/150 2.3) and BRef (dWAR 0.3 lgRFG 3.72) he's doing pretty well. For comparison, Correa's numbers: (dWAR 9.6 UZR/150 3.1) (dWAR 2.9 lgRFG 3.72), and Corey Seagar (dWAR 0.8 UZR/150 -14.1) (dWAR 0.5 lgRFG 3.74). Bogaerts is also a fWAR 5.2/4.9 bWAR player. I mean, what/who do you want instead? Reading a lot of people here, you'd think Bogaerts's defense is akin to Jeter in his last five years. It really is bad, Statcast has him consistently below average: baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/xander-bogaerts-593428?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlbThis year only 7 players in baseball has more than -10 OAA (one of them being Devers). Although I agree that the left side of the Red Sox infield could use an upgrade defensively, I think this is a bit deceiving as OAA doesn't take into account opportunities. You'll notice that the 7 players worse than Bogaerts are all 3B/SS/2B as they receive more opportunities than most position players and those who are below average will naturally gravitate to a lower OAA given the additional opportunities. Bogaerts and Devers were 11th and 33rd in 'plays' this year respectively. So they're not great, but not as bad as OOA make them look, even by Statcast's criteria.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 25, 2021 12:11:34 GMT -5
What makes you think that stat is better compared to Fangraphs and Baseball Refrence who have been doing it a lot longer. The straight answer for this one is that Statcast knows exactly where the fielder is for each opportunity, how far they had to run to make the play and how far he is from the bag which the baserunner is heading toward. UZR and DRS have 'zones' which they use to judge how difficult the play was to make, which isn't going to be as precise; they also break defense into fielding, throwing, errors and double-plays (I'm not sure if OAA accounts for double plays at all). That said, Statcast OAA for infielders is only 2 years old, so I'm not 100% sure it should be taken over UZR and DRS at this point - but it should definitely be strongly considered. For outfielders, I don't believe it accounts for outfield assists at all, which is why a player like Renfroe is going to look worse.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 22, 2021 6:22:14 GMT -5
I think it's interesting that by going back to school he is, in a way, betting against himself.
If we assume that by entering the draft he is delayed one year from making the majors, and upon reaching the majors he will play for over 6 years, then he will be costing himself 1 year of a salary that's likely to be far greater than any extra salary he may obtain from a signing bonus next year.
On the other hand, if we assume that he is going to washout in the minor leagues, or get to the majors but never reach free agency, then going back to school and playing better 'may' grant him a larger signing bonus, in which case he will be better off.
The third scenario would be that he goes back to school but doesn't improve his stock, while lowering his bargaining leverage, and he is immediately worse off.
I'm making quite a few assumptions above that may not be true (principally that he won't improve nearly as much in college as he would in the minors), but if you think about it this way, he's actually taking the middle-road at the expense of the money he could make if he fails or becomes wildly successful.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 18, 2021 16:07:47 GMT -5
I bring up Ben Cherington because he's the last GM to do a rebuild and the parallels to Bloom are very similar. Talented team with a bloated payroll, GM makes some good moves that work out perfectly for the most part. Yet that also was his downfall. He tries the same thing the next year and it's bad. He's then forced to spend by ownership, which just creates even more problems. Yet doesn't want to give out mega deals You won't find a Hernandez and Renfroe every year. It's Baseball, players have up and down years. It's not coaching, it's just Baseball. The Ray's are crazy impressive, yet they have never won a championship. The Dodgers were crazy impressive for years, yet they didn't win till they went all in. I'm a big believer in our ownerships model of go all in and then rebuild. Just look at the results. It's like acting like the Yankees when they were the Yankees, yet in spurts so you don't have any long downturns. You clear the books and restock the system to once again go all in. You don't try to avoid the next David Price contract, you set yourself up to make that signing. You act like the Ray's in stretches, then act like the old Yankees. Then do it all over again. This is a strategy that has worked in the past (although mostly for Dombrowski led teams). The issue is when you screw up on the big contracts so badly that you're still paying David Price during the next championship push. Think about how much better the Red Sox could be if they had another $16mil invested in this team.
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