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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 14, 2021 10:46:27 GMT -5
I will go on the record and say that this is the new Renfroe. I think he learned something this year and might even get better. Just a full season of him doing what he has for the last 4 months would be a very good season. Who are you going to replace him with that won't be a lot more than his arb number? Nobody You may be right on renfroe being what he was this year going forward. Lookint at his 2017-2019 stretch in San Diego his offensive numbers aren't that dissimilar than this year. Playing 81 games in fenway more than likely suits him better than 81 in San Diego. I'd definitely hold on to renfroe since as you point out the price to upgrade from him is going to be pretty steep in terms of dollars or prospects. The only thing I'd want them to entertain is maybe a deal for a cost controlled starter but those don't exactly grow on trees and I doubt he gets one himself. Look at his BB%, K% and P/PA - they're very close to his 2017 and 2018 numbers. In 2019 and 2020 (and some of early 2021) he was a more passive/selective hitter and his performance dropped as a result.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 14, 2021 10:12:32 GMT -5
I don't see Schwarber as a DH only player. First of all, he's been transitioning to 1B for like 3 months. Give him an off-season to work on it and maybe you have a guy who can be adequate there when facing RHPs. Second, he's not AWFUL in LF, especially in the smaller one at Fenway. I would honestly consider trading Renfroe since his Arb $# is going to be near $7-8mil and I worry that this season was more of a career year than a "coming into his own" year. This allows you to use Schwarber at 3 positions (1B, LF, DH). Then maybe you go get another OF who hits righties well to play when it's Schwarber's turn at 1B since Dalbec won't be in the lineup. Or maybe you don't do any of those things if you believe Casas is coming up <soon> to, at the very least, fill the LHH 1B platoon role, since that decreases the amount of versatility you'd need out of Schwarber, and re-signing him will likely cost relatively large money over relatively long years, overlapping with Casas' affordable years. Idfk... If the Red Sox trade Renfroe, because of money at 7/8m a year, after being under the tax for 2 straight years then we need a revolt. I’m not saying they should spend stupidly, but if I hear about the tax being a barrier for them next year, I’ll lose my mind. If you stay under it, and build a great team and sign good contracts and walk away from bad ones, then so be it. But if you’re unwilling to give a good player a solid value contract because of the tax line then they need to be ridiculed for that. I think trading Renfroe makes sense if they're able to upgrade the position through free agency (Schwarber or someone else) - especially if they can get valuable long-term prospects in return. But I agree pertaining the the tax (or whatever takes it's place). If the Red Sox remain under next year after resetting this year (assuming they didn't mess that up) and mounting a deep playoff run, then there's an issue. I see a Renfroe trade and going over the tax as part of the same plan.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 12, 2021 16:31:02 GMT -5
He also doesn't have to play 1B (especially if Dalbec improves or Casas becomes ready) - he's not a total butcher in LF:
+3.2 UZR/150 -3 per 1000 innings DRS -8.6 OOA per 1000 innings (this is bad but it doesn't account for his plus arm)
Given that Schwarber has a good arm but below average range, he is actually a great fit in LF in Fenway. Could work it into a decent platoon (some 1b against RHers and LF against LHers) depending on what happens with Martinez and Renfroe.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 12, 2021 9:52:28 GMT -5
In the case of Brasier, he's a 34 yo middle-innings reliever in his last year of team control. I'm sure the Red Sox will work to keep him, but it's likely they prefer other options with their 40-man spots. 2 years. He was at 3.109 entering the year. They have him through 2023. That's fair - but he will turn 36 that season, so I don't think it changes the decision much. I've been a big Brasier proponent since he got here, but his spot is in jeopardy with the roster crunch (I'm assuming the Red Sox plan to go over the lux tax next year).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 11, 2021 16:35:42 GMT -5
"wasn't even top 30" Out of how many players was he not top 30? I mean really guys do you remember how bad he was to start the season? From May on he was better than JD and we are going to say he had a fine season. He had a fine season for an established very good player. For a guy that Bloom got for nothing and nothing was really expected from he had a great year. Just like Kiké did. Renfroe is a big reason why the Sox are in the playoffs. He single handedly won games down the stretch. He can be my Rt, fielder for the next few years. Like I said, "certainly good value for the cost." But he had 1.8 fWAR, which was 36th among 47 qualified outfielders - ranking below Benintendi, among others - and a 114 wRC+, which was 21st. (I was looking at all outfielders with 250+ PAs when I said he wasn't in the top 30, but all these numbers tell basically the same story.) It's true that he was better than JD Martinez from May on, but then, JDM himself had a pretty meh season from May on (111 wRC+, which is mediocre at best for a DH). And games in April also count, right? ADD: From May 1 on, he had a .325 OBP. From July 1 on it was just .303. Low OBP + high SLG + weirdly uneven defense = fine, in my view.
I believe these splits weren't randomness but due to adjustment that Refroe made around the end of April. He became much more aggressive attacking pitches which lead to fewer walks (although he had 13 in June) and fewer strikeouts along with a lower P/PA. It seems he went back to essentially being the player he was in 2017 & 2018 and it likely took the league a little time to adjust to the more aggressive Renfroe. (it's a bit muddy looking at month-to-month, but if you look at his season K%, BB% and P/PA for 2019/2020 you see a very different hitter) If the Red Sox could get something for Renfroe, move Verdugo to RF (I'm a little nervous of his speed drop this year) and re-sign Swisher to play LF (assuming Martinez opts-in) then I think the team looks pretty good going into next year. (getting one of the top middle-infielders and a short-term platoon partner for Dalbec would be nice too).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 11, 2021 14:58:10 GMT -5
on the 40-man page, Sawamura's contract shows 3mil for 2022. It should be 1.2mil and 3mil option for 2023. (escalators make both years a bit funky)
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 11, 2021 14:24:57 GMT -5
The way they have been using Brasier lately makes it clear they think he's a solid bullpen piece. You don't nontender guys making a million unless you don't want them on the roster. The way they have been using Brasier lately makes it clear they think he's a solid bullpen piece. You don't nontender guys making a million unless you don't want them on the roster. Typically you keep these guys on the 40-man - but we've never seen an MLB 40-man roster crunch like what's about to happen. So in this case, I don't think the past will forecast the future (for this offseason). In the case of Brasier, he's a 34 yo middle-innings reliever in his last year of team control. I'm sure the Red Sox will work to keep him, but it's likely they prefer other options with their 40-man spots. As mentioned, the issue here isn't $$ but roster spots. This past offseason the Red Sox were able to acquire Ronaldo Hernandez and Garrett Whitlock for essentially nothing simply because they had the 40-man spots available. This offseason there will be far more Hernandez/Whitlock types available and I'm expecting Bloom to pursue them once again (although I am not expecting the same level of success - they were good and lucky this past year). If I knew exactly which players will become available, I'd likely have a high 6-figure contract with a baseball team. But I'm sure that given some time we could figure out a few.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 11, 2021 11:39:29 GMT -5
Don't think I see any non-tender candidates this year. Even Franchy probably sticks around given that he's got an option remaining. From a value standpoint, I completely agree with this. But I'm wondering if we see a couple of surprise non-tenders/trades with the purpose of opening up more 40-man spots. With 40-man spots in such high demand this offseason, I'm guessing there will be fringe players around the league looking for work. For this reason, I don't think they retain Franchy (but try to bring him back on a non-40 split deal). I could also see this happening with Brasier (I expect similar pitchers to be available for less) and possibly even Plawecki (I know, he's easily been worth 2mil as a backup, but he will be 31 next season and they already have 2 MiLB catchers on the 40). There will be many teams deciding between protecting a player like a Whitlock or keeping their 4th OF, backup C, etc. (I can also see the Red Sox shopping Renfroe if they plan on upgrading their OF in FA)
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 10, 2021 15:27:48 GMT -5
I'm confused how you can come to the conclusion that Schwarber is a completely different hitter while noting statcast for other players. If you sift through Schwarber's statistics on either baseballsavant or fangraphs, you'll see that between 2021 and his career averages, almost everything is identical - the consistency is actually quite amazing. Of the primary batting statistics, only his batting average is high this year (by .029 higher than career average) which is clearly driven by a higher BABIP (.032 higher than career average). The increased BABIP seems to be driven by his career high barrel/sweet spot numbers. Essentially he hit the ball at a good trajectory with good bat-speed at a higher rate than he ever has, so his batting average was .029 higher than his career batting average. None of us know if Schwarber will continue to be as good this year (or continue to improve) but given that this was his first full season of what is normally a player's peak years (27-31) and there should be optimism that he has made slight improvements. If you leave out the odd 2020 season, his 4/5 year xwOBA trajectory has been: .340, .347, .372, .396, which shows improvement each year. If the Sox could get Schwarber for something in the neighborhood of 4/85 (w/o opt-outs) then I would be ecstatic. I would also be ecstatic if Martinez would be willing to give up the last year of his deal at 19.3mil to take a 45/3 deal, but I find that unlikely as Martinez would only receive 25.7mil for adding 2 years to his contract - more likely he would want the 3/45 deal tacked onto the end of his current deal, and I would be a bit wary of that. I would also be happy if Martinez opts-in AND they give Schwarber a long-term contract - this would let them give Martinez rest days (old man can't step over 2nd base without an injury!), give the OFers rest days and let them hold off from rushing Casas to the majors (only suggesting this would be good for 1 year). My biggest issue with him is his average, if we're talking about him at DH. I want no part of 4 years 85 million. I hate expected wOBA, it was crazy with Bradley for years. His actual wOBA is .333, .343, .357 and .392 which shows you the massive jump this year. You going to like paying him over 20 million if his average goes back down and his wOBA is around .360? It's all how you project him going forward and that's one of the hardest things to do in Baseball. I understand that's your only issue - it's the only issue a person could have given that all other peripheral numbers are near-identical to his career averages. But I explained what lead to the career numbers and now it's on you to explain why you believe his trajectory, or the speed of the ball off the bat, will regress down to his previous career averages. I don't know what's going to happen, but a steady progression leading to a career year at the age of 28 is quite a good sign.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 9, 2021 14:36:21 GMT -5
My concern about JD is that he's had essentially one really good month since turning 32, and he's 34 now. Why bet on him fending off father time (which he doesn't show much evidence of being able to do) rather than just signing a younger player?
I have no idea what distinction you're making between "professional hitter" and "just a good slugger." Schwarber's ABs have looked FAR better to me than JD's this season. Also, if you want to ding him for only having a .340 OBP in Washington this season then you need to also credit him for his .570 SLG there, which is higher than he's had here. Can't have it both ways.
Like I said, I don't think it's crazy to not be in love with Schwarber, who is limited on defense, has a naturally low BABIP, and might not be an ideal fit for Fenway (though I don't think he's terrible either). I could definitely be persuaded there are better FA options. But I am not grokking the JDM>Schwarber argument.
Who's the other options? Sure if there was a younger Martinez I'd rather sign him. He's the best option I see and given his age he will likely on take smaller shorter deals. I have no issue about him opting in or something like 3 years 45 million. I'm not giving him some massive deal. I'm a stats guys, the numbers don't lie. You want to base it off scouting in a limited sample size. Matt Barnes goes on stretches every year were he looks like an elite reliever. Yet every year he also has bad stretches. That's baseball. I'll bet on Martinez fighting off father time, than Schwarber is a completely new hitter. I gave details why I believe in Martinez in past threads. Statcast doesn't show a major decline and he just keeps getting better the farther out you go from his wrist injury. Schwarber is a good slugger, I don't think I've said otherwise. He's also a good slugger with a career .237 batting average. I'll certainly change my tone if he's turned some corner and is going to have a much higher average going forward. I'm just looking at his stats and projecting what you get in future seasons and I'm not likely what I see. Maybe I'm dead wrong, crazy crap does happen every year in Baseball. I'm just not betting on it with a large long-term deal. Guys that have career years as to be free agent scare the hell out me. He's setting career highs in average, on base percentage, slugging, everything down to bwar. I'm confused how you can come to the conclusion that Schwarber is a completely different hitter while noting statcast for other players. If you sift through Schwarber's statistics on either baseballsavant or fangraphs, you'll see that between 2021 and his career averages, almost everything is identical - the consistency is actually quite amazing. Of the primary batting statistics, only his batting average is high this year (by .029 higher than career average) which is clearly driven by a higher BABIP (.032 higher than career average). The increased BABIP seems to be driven by his career high barrel/sweet spot numbers. Essentially he hit the ball at a good trajectory with good bat-speed at a higher rate than he ever has, so his batting average was .029 higher than his career batting average. None of us know if Schwarber will continue to be as good this year (or continue to improve) but given that this was his first full season of what is normally a player's peak years (27-31) and there should be optimism that he has made slight improvements. If you leave out the odd 2020 season, his 4/5 year xwOBA trajectory has been: .340, .347, .372, .396, which shows improvement each year. If the Sox could get Schwarber for something in the neighborhood of 4/85 (w/o opt-outs) then I would be ecstatic. I would also be ecstatic if Martinez would be willing to give up the last year of his deal at 19.3mil to take a 45/3 deal, but I find that unlikely as Martinez would only receive 25.7mil for adding 2 years to his contract - more likely he would want the 3/45 deal tacked onto the end of his current deal, and I would be a bit wary of that. I would also be happy if Martinez opts-in AND they give Schwarber a long-term contract - this would let them give Martinez rest days (old man can't step over 2nd base without an injury!), give the OFers rest days and let them hold off from rushing Casas to the majors (only suggesting this would be good for 1 year).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 8, 2021 9:04:15 GMT -5
Owners would be against it. They don't want to give the few owners that'd be able to take advantage of that and spend more money on other players the ability to do so. You'd basically be giving certain owners the ability to expand the CBT. Never going to happen. It'd be similar so probably the same thing but I've always liked the idea of the NBAs stretch provision where they spread out the cap hit over a few extra years. Maybe make it usable only every 3-4 years. Just an idea that probably never happen but would certainly help with these mega contracts that end up being dead weight. I think the big difference is that in the NBA the salary cap affects almost every team (29 are over at the moment) while in MLB about 5 teams deal with being at/over the competitive balance tax each year. Having the other 25 teams agree to a rule that can help those 5 teams doesn't seem realistic at the moment. If down the line more teams reach/exceed the tax then I'm sure something like this would happen.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 7, 2021 13:33:54 GMT -5
I think if the players are trying to get more money early (and I'm not saying they are as this doesn't benefit the veterans who mostly make the decisions) then a 20/40/60/80 pay rate for years 3-6 would be a nice compromise. I think the NFL and NBA have had success in negotiations by taking a dollar from the stars and distributing sixty cents of it to the rank and file. Under Fehr, the union had a strong culture of resisting any move in that direction. We'll see how Tony Clark's union behaves. I don't see this happening only because it would be such a dramatic change, but I completely agree that this would be the best resolution. In the NFL you receive an extra payment spread out through each player based on pay and playing time (snaps in the NFL; could easily be PA for MLB) from a pool of 8.5mil that each team distributes. Here is an article on it for anyone who is interested: nflcommunications.com/Pages/2018-Performance-Based-Pay-Distributions-Announced.aspxAnd one other thing I would propose (If I were the owners) would be a maximum number of 'new year' that can be given to a player in free agency or an extension at 5-7. It helps save the owners from themselves and helps counter the long-term contract with multiple opt-outs. Although the players would request something in exchange for this change.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 7, 2021 13:25:28 GMT -5
Well this base pay scenario would likely eliminate veteran players as utility guys,backup c, and bull pen guys. Vets love those guarenteed deals. Oh I get that, you wouldn't have as many cagey veterans holding on and inflating payroll. Only the guys who could still perform relative to their pay would survive. So your Nelson Cruz's, Ortiz, Kershaws, Scherzers, etc would still be fine, and the trade off here is they would still make more money at the beginning of their career and wouldn't need the back end to bolster their value. I also think it could be further enhanced for all by some form of revenue sharing. The union gets x% a year based on the total revenue during the season for all teams, and each player (even rookies) get an even share of that revenue. Let's say a fair percentage is somewhere in the 20-25 range, and the average revenue is north of 3billion, but we'll use 3 billon as the number for roundness, that's 750 million distributed evenly throughout the rank and file on top of salaries. Which is around 600k each on top of their salary and bonus. This would pay Nelson Cruz 18mil for this season. Although an optimist might say 'great, he get's $4mil more', but the realist in me says 'he's out of work right and likely forced to retire'. This would force a lot of veteran players out of MLB while diminishing the pay of the star players. As the strongest members of the union are the stars and the vets, they would never let this happen.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 5, 2021 0:31:31 GMT -5
Teams could afford to do this for every player from Low-A to AAA for roughly the cost of what the Red Sox are paying Garrett Richards this season. Or, if you prefer, for what Rob Manfred makes in a year. Minor league clubs have owners. Add up the gate and concessions and subtract the expenses. Just how many fan do you think attend minor league games. If the low minor leaguers don’t like the pay then go get a full time job like the rest of us. You all are. Clueless about economics and why these kids that play minor ball actually play. Example.... I had a conversation with the Iowa Cubs 2B who backed up Ryan Sandburg if he thought he would make it to the majors. He said no and that he was playing for college money. All of you who think you can tell owners to pay $360 million for Betts, or x amount to players who should not have even been drafted make me sick. If a kid wants to play for crumbs that’s on him, so don’t cry about it.!!!! Due to a (short sighted and incorrect) supreme court ruling from the 1920s, MLB is allowed to operate as a monopoly/cartel. Conversely, the players Union also operates as a monopoly with all MLB players pressured to join. This creates a business model that is extremely profitable for both team owners and MLB players, but takes advantage of almost everyone else (until recently unpaid interns were often worked to the bone - as one example). Everyone within baseball should make the minimum wage (because it's the law) and it would be nice if everyone made a living wage as it would not only help the players improve in their craft (nobody performs optimally when they're struggling to pay bills) but because it strengthens society as whole when large groups of people aren't dealing with these pressures; when someone struggles financially, it's not just the individual who struggles but often their families, sometimes friends and possibly financial institutions who can't profit off their revenue making power (there are businesses entirely built to profit off those who struggle financially - but that's a different discussion). That being said, there is a very wide chasm between a livable wage and $100,000 (keep in mind they get quite a bit of free food and lodging) and there are many beside the players within professional baseball who struggle due to the system. Relating to the previous mention of players 'choosing' this lifestyle, that's quite fair but it doesn't take into account the inability of humans to accurate forecast future utility (they either don't believe it's as bad as they've heard or they don't believe they will struggle - this is simply human nature). Also, referencing someone from 40+ years ago doesn't apply in today's landscape as having a second job used to be common place, but these days if a player (without star talent) were to split their time with another job then the team would release them as there are plenty of other players willing to devote their entire life to chasing the dream. Because of the immense amount of money devoted to drafting and developing players in the current landscape, teams demand more from the players and have learned they can do so without having to compensate the players for the additional time. A quick thought experiment: If the MLB union and/or MLB chose to set-aside 35mil for players in Low-A, High-A, Double-A and Triple-A; they could give an additional $10,000 to each player, which would be more than enough to put them well into a livable wage. But neither side will ever do this without outside pressure because...why would they? They would rather have the money for themselves. (you can bash the owners for having MORE money all you want, and it would be fair, but keep in mind that (almost) all MLB players were once minor leaguers so they should empathize, but they still don't care enough to fix it)
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 30, 2021 12:13:19 GMT -5
Evan Carter got drafted 50th overall and wasn't even in the BA 500 but sure, Yorke was the surprise pick of the draft. #50 requires too much scrolling to surprise
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 21, 2021 8:07:32 GMT -5
Is Casas the better prospect than Rizzo was Rizzo was around 20 and Casas seems to be at around that same spot. Rizzo had a better glove from what I remember but there were concerns since he lost almost a year to cancer. Might be too early to tell as Casas could still rise in the rankings this offseason.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 21, 2021 6:15:09 GMT -5
At some point we have to think of Casas contributing next year. Maybe in June?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 20, 2021 10:27:01 GMT -5
Don't forget about defense. 2021 UZR & DRS: -0.6 (14th) & -3 (20th) 2016-2020 average UZR and DRS: 18.12 (4th) & 29.4 (5th) It certainly appears that the Red Sox defense has been worse this year than typically through the previous 5 years. I'm not sure how much this has affected ERod, but I'm sure it plays a role in the high BABIP. The bad defense has affected all the pitchers with higher pitch counts per inning, credit for fewer innings pitched, more runs allowed, and a heavier number of high pitch count innings, so a better defense makes all the pitchers on the team better (lol, except Sawamura as so many of his hits end up over the fence which better defense can not help). Joking aside, better defense will help starters go deeper into games (also benefits the bullpen by pitching fewer innings.) Resigning E-Rod comes down to years and money. I'm not quite sure what you're getting at, but keep in mind that better defense doesn't make all pitchers better at the same rate (strikeout vs contact pitchers for instance) and the way in which a defense is bad (groundball pitchers vs flyball pitchers for instance) can affect pitchers differently as well.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 19, 2021 21:56:18 GMT -5
IN to hits WHIP Inconsistency Given that his walk rate is fine, his WHIP is high because of the hits, which you already mentioned. You're just repeating the same issue. And I'd argue it's not an issue. His H/9, year by year, has been: 8.9, 8.3, 8.3, 8.3, 8.6, 9.9. His BABIP, year by year: .294, .279, .300, .301, .318, .360 Hard-hit%, year by year: 35.1%, 30.6%, 33.2%, 36.2%, 33.0%, 34.6% He has seemingly just been hit by worse BIP luck. There's no reason not to think he won't revert to his previous hits allowed totals. Someone can look at whether his stuff is any different but the above seems to pretty clearly show that he's just had bad luck (mostly in May), and where his H/9 would be worth a BABIP closer to .300. As for consistency, I'll leave it to someone else to show whether he's more or less inconsistent relative to other pitchers. Don't forget about defense. 2021 UZR & DRS: -0.6 (14th) & -3 (20th) 2016-2020 average UZR and DRS: 18.12 (4th) & 29.4 (5th) It certainly appears that the Red Sox defense has been worse this year than typically through the previous 5 years. I'm not sure how much this has affected ERod, but I'm sure it plays a role in the high BABIP.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 17, 2021 20:45:56 GMT -5
I'd like to see him go to AAA next year for at least half of a season. He will have a chance to improve his defense and make adjustments at the plate without the pressures of Boston. If he gets to the end of the year without showing improvement, you promote him as a pinch runner for the playoffs and pencil him in as a 4th OFer for 2023. I hope he improves and becomes a stud, but at this point he shouldn't factor into the MLB plans to start 2022. It is easy to write Duran off after six or eight weeks of major league service but it would be silly to do so. He has the rest of this season and spring training, as well as winter ball, to show what he can do. If he is still striking out too much and threatening the Mendoza line, then he can go back down assuming that he is not needed to complete the roster. We have little insight on that situation because of the off season and ST unknowns. How is this writing him off? He's currently in MLB only because of COVID/injuries - so I don't consider him to be an MLB player at this time. He's not yet good enough to receive regular playing time, as shown by his frequent games off while he was in the majors. It's not like he dominated AAA pitching (24% k-rate and .264 avg that went to 35.7% and .215 in MLB), and he has work to do with the glove, so let him get regular playing time and improve rather than bounce in-and-out of the lineup or set him up for failure.
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Bryan Mata
Sept 17, 2021 14:20:29 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 17, 2021 14:20:29 GMT -5
I figured Sale was starting tonight, but now I'm not so sure.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 17, 2021 14:12:08 GMT -5
I'd like to see him go to AAA next year for at least half of a season. He will have a chance to improve his defense and make adjustments at the plate without the pressures of Boston.
If he gets to the end of the year without showing improvement, you promote him as a pinch runner for the playoffs and pencil him in as a 4th OFer for 2023.
I hope he improves and becomes a stud, but at this point he shouldn't factor into the MLB plans to start 2022.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 14, 2021 16:19:35 GMT -5
What a weird note. Doesn't really seem like he has a pulse on the org. Who is even pondering him being a potential September call up? I can imagine literally no scenario where he seriously competes for an opening day spot next year. Even if he comes to camp built like Greek statue with 7 MPH added to his fastball, they'd make him wait a month to come up. I think a call-up this year, depending on COVID, is much more likely than starting next year.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 10, 2021 16:00:31 GMT -5
3x SoxProspects POTY. The fact he didn't hit at all in MLB is baffling to me. Not necessarily that he didn't hit enough to be a DH or something, but like, I'd have thought he'd at least be a league-average bat who had a tough time getting into the lineup because of his defense. Anyway, the lesson here, for those who haven't been around the block - when the old heads are cautiously optimistic at best when guys like Dearden, Scott, Granberg, Davis, etc. have great offensive seasons without premier prospect profiles, the fact that, for example, the old Drive HR record was held by 3 guys, two of which didn't get past Double-A and one who is a AAAA catcher, is why. I was never rooting against Lavarnway, because who roots against any prospect in any org, but I wasn't super psyched-up simply due to how aggressively and insistently that one guy posted about him. Seems like a similar story with the current guys, great stats but okayish from the guys who actually see them. That person posting about Lavarnway? Not sure what Guy you're referring to.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 10, 2021 15:23:25 GMT -5
3x SoxProspects POTY. The fact he didn't hit at all in MLB is baffling to me. Not necessarily that he didn't hit enough to be a DH or something, but like, I'd have thought he'd at least be a league-average bat who had a tough time getting into the lineup because of his defense. Anyway, the lesson here, for those who haven't been around the block - when the old heads are cautiously optimistic at best when guys like Dearden, Scott, Granberg, Davis, etc. have great offensive seasons without premier prospect profiles, the fact that, for example, the old Drive HR record was held by 3 guys, two of which didn't get past Double-A and one who is a AAAA catcher, is why. Looking at the stat lines again after so many years, Lavarnway had a pretty promising first year in the majors, but his power disappeared after that - even at the minor league level.
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